Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[dckingsfan]

Went back and looked at the last few games... our first unit has really held its own. It is when the second unit comes in that things fall apart. I put this on Wes (opinion), I don't think he has figured out a set of schemas for the second unit. Maybe it is due to injuries and Deni (losing confidence).

[doclinkin]

Went back and looked at the last few games... our first unit has really held its own. It is when the second unit comes in that things fall apart. I put this on Wes (opinion), I don't think he has figured out a set of schemas for the second unit. Maybe it is due to injuries and Deni (losing confidence).

It's on Tommy ultimately. We lack depth of talent. We have no back-up PG with Delon out. Our draft pick 2 guard can't play at this level, the 2-3 swingman we traded for has lost his game now that he is no longer playing next to the Joker. Our former starting 3 has no offensive game and teams have figured out they don't need to guard him. Our back-up PF looks good but does not know how to play the game. Our 2nd string Center can't stay on the floor due to fouls, and needs a true PG to set him up on offense.

[nate33]

Went back and looked at the last few games... our first unit has really held its own. It is when the second unit comes in that things fall apart. I put this on Wes (opinion), I don't think he has figured out a set of schemas for the second unit. Maybe it is due to injuries and Deni (losing confidence).

The most obvious solution would be to make sure that one of Beal, Kuzma or Porzingis is on the floor with the second unit, but looking at the on/off data, it shows that 2nd unit doesn't play well alongside either one of those guys.

[Dat2U]

Went back and looked at the last few games... our first unit has really held its own. It is when the second unit comes in that things fall apart. I put this on Wes (opinion), I don't think he has figured out a set of schemas for the second unit. Maybe it is due to injuries and Deni (losing confidence).

The most obvious solution would be to make sure that one of Beal, Kuzma or Porzingis is on the floor with the second unit, but looking at the on/off data, it shows that 2nd unit doesn't play well alongside either one of those guys.

The 2nd unit is just junk if Deni is not defending at a high level. No standouts on that unit and probably the best player, Gafford as mentioned needs an actual PG to look passable offensively.

[Dat2U]

Went back and looked at the last few games... our first unit has really held its own. It is when the second unit comes in that things fall apart. I put this on Wes (opinion), I don't think he has figured out a set of schemas for the second unit. Maybe it is due to injuries and Deni (losing confidence).

It's on Tommy ultimately. We lack depth of talent. We have no back-up PG with Delon out. Our draft pick 2 guard can't play at this level, the 2-3 swingman we traded for has lost his game now that he is no longer playing next to the Joker. Our former starting 3 has no offensive game and teams have figured out they don't need to guard him. Our back-up PF looks good but does not know how to play the game. Our 2nd string Center can't stay on the floor due to fouls, and needs a true PG to set him up on offense.

Yeah either Shepp is really incompetent (certainly possible) or this is a backdoor tank job. Riding the season long health of KP & Brad with little quality depth around them is a recipe for a team that could be much closer to the VW sweepstakes than run at the play-in by the mid-way point.

I'd prefer we get ahead of the inevitable KP injury and move him while he's rebuilt some value. Certaintly think he can fetch a 1st but the Wiz at least appear to want to put on a competitive (i use that word loosely in this instance) face.

[prime1time]

Hachimura's last 3 games...18 ppg on 57.8% from the field. And tonight his on/off was a team-high +20. Crazy how many people on this board think he's not even an NBA caliber talent lol.

[tleikheen]

Hachimura's last 3 games...18 ppg on 57.8% from the field. And tonight his on/off was a team-high +20.

And this is with having to play with Barton who rarely looks Hachimura's way......

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Here’s my preferred lineup;

Goodwin Wright
Goodwin Beal
Goodwin Goodwin
Goodwin Zinger
Goodwin Goodwin

[payitforward]

Hachimura's last 3 games...18 ppg on 57.8% from the field. And tonight his on/off was a team-high +20. Crazy how many people on this board think he's not even an NBA caliber talent lol.

Ay caramba, prime!

No one thinks Rui is "not even an NBA caliber talent!"

In my case, for example, I said from his early days as a rookie that Rui "has a chance to be an outstanding NBA player."

Btw, you're selling Rui a little short in what you say about his last 3 games: he's posted 54 points on 38 shots & 11 FTAs -- that's a .63 TS%.

OTOH, it's also perfectly fair to point out that Rui turned the ball over 4 times tonight. It doesn't make a person into a "hater" to point out everything about his or anyone's performance. It all matters.

[payitforward]

Went back and looked at the last few games... our first unit has really held its own. It is when the second unit comes in that things fall apart. I put this on Wes (opinion), I don't think he has figured out a set of schemas for the second unit. Maybe it is due to injuries and Deni (losing confidence).

The most obvious solution would be to make sure that one of Beal, Kuzma or Porzingis is on the floor with the second unit, but looking at the on/off data, it shows that 2nd unit doesn't play well alongside either one of those guys.

The 2nd unit is just junk if Deni is not defending at a high level. No standouts on that unit and probably the best player, Gafford as mentioned needs an actual PG to look passable offensively.

Naturally, the 2d unit won the game for us tonight!

The world will make even the most intelligent person look comical sometimes....

[prime1time]

Hachimura's last 3 games...18 ppg on 57.8% from the field. And tonight his on/off was a team-high +20. Crazy how many people on this board think he's not even an NBA caliber talent lol.

Ay caramba, prime!

No one thinks Rui is "not even an NBA caliber talent!"

In my case, for example, I said from his early days as a rookie that Rui "has a chance to be an outstanding NBA player."

Btw, you're selling Rui a little short in what you say about his last 3 games: he's posted 54 points on 38 shots & 11 FTAs -- that's a .63 TS%.

OTOH, it's also perfectly fair to point out that Rui turned the ball over 4 times tonight. It doesn't make a person into a "hater" to point out everything about his or anyone's performance. It all matters.

From a little more than a week ago...

Rui is a horrible. They need to move him before he has no value at all. Deni is being completely misused/underused. Wright was a significantly more impactful player than Morris. Wes is proving once again, that he is nothing more than a mediocre non-imaginative coach.

This team is a pile of mediocre nothingness

Given the minutes Rui plays and the fact that our starters are outscoring our opponents, what would be the implications of Hachimura having a positive plus/minus?

That something miraculous happened and he had a basketball transplant? The ghost of somebody with basketball skill has possessed his body?

Nate's point shows that even playing next to Beal or ANYbody on court, Rui has a negative effect on the team's +/-. Rui is not in the negative solely because he is playing with the bench. But the bench is at least partly in the negative because they are playing with Rui.

For example, Deni is noted as a +/- king on this team. We knock him a bit because he defers to other players to set them up to score. But even without him shooting much, or well, the team benefits with him on the court. Put him next to anybody bench or starter, and he has a positive +/-.

Well not quite anybody. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2023

Pick a bench player, any of them, and even those that have been struggling the most have some player who they have a positive +/- next to. (Deni usually, but generally one other as well). Gafford plays well next to Morris. Gill played in the positive with any starter, and even Davis. But not Rui. Bad effect next to anybody. Small sample sizes of course, but at least he is consistent.

Delon Wright is an interesting case. He played in the negative with everybody but Deni. So much for his defense making all the difference. Not sure what to make of it, except that his reluctance to take a shot means teams can ignore him on that end, and concentrate on others. The bench will look better when Kispert comes back and adds a floor spacer, back door lane attacker. Hopefully his willingness to shoot will force teams to chase outside.

Delon Wright going down makes me think Deni will pick up slack playmaking in the 2nd unit. Will Barton can't carry all the ballhandling duties, some starter or another is going to have to play minutes with the bench at all times.

Let's remove Rui from the conversation and insert generic role-player A. Are you arguing that the right role player could turn the Wizards into a championship contender?

No I am arguing if you removed Rui from the conversation entirely you should be able to recoup more value from trading him than he is worth on court. Because while he looks good in highlights and on offense, right now he only helps your team lose. Which is great from the tanking perspective, but not great long term if you re-ink him to an extension. Unless he suddenly gets better in team play.

Sounds like you are arguing something you haven't posited yet. Like perhaps you think the coaching staff is doing something wrong.

To my way of thinking the only thing that could turn this team into a championship contender is adding an All-NBA & All-Defensive team caliber player at PF. Which is why I am in the tank for tanking. And why I'd be willing to swap Rui (and almost any other player) for future picks.

With Brad locked in to that contract/no trade the only way we can get a sudden change of fortune is if we hit home runs with our picks. Our front office is very conventional and cautious in their draft strategy, so the only way to get those franchise caliber players is if we draft really really high in the right year. We are not growing our own Giannis with a late selection.

Is the question: 'What could our coaching staff do to get better synergy out of the players we already have?'

[dckingsfan]

The most obvious solution would be to make sure that one of Beal, Kuzma or Porzingis is on the floor with the second unit, but looking at the on/off data, it shows that 2nd unit doesn't play well alongside either one of those guys.

The 2nd unit is just junk if Deni is not defending at a high level. No standouts on that unit and probably the best player, Gafford as mentioned needs an actual PG to look passable offensively.

Naturally, the 2d unit won the game for us tonight!

The world will make even the most intelligent person look comical sometimes....

[dobrojim]

The most obvious solution would be to make sure that one of Beal, Kuzma or Porzingis is on the floor with the second unit, but looking at the on/off data, it shows that 2nd unit doesn't play well alongside either one of those guys.

The 2nd unit is just junk if Deni is not defending at a high level. No standouts on that unit and probably the best player, Gafford as mentioned needs an actual PG to look passable offensively.

Naturally, the 2d unit won the game for us tonight!

The world will make even the most intelligent person look comical sometimes....

who you talkin' bout?

<JK>

[prime1time]

People might not want to hear this but we need to talk about Deni Avdija. His numbers are shockingly bad. 33% from the field and 22% from 3. Yes, his defense is solid but no one's defense is solid enough for us for an NBA team to overlook this level of offensive ineptitude. I remember reading discussing the Wizards on twitter the other day, and a fan who was trying genuinely trying to defend Avdija claimed that "Avdija plays winning basketball." This just confirmed my opinion that in Wizards land up is down and down is up.

In fact, if you look closer at the numbers and even clearer story appears. Avdija was benched against the Celtics and then removed from the starting lineup. After Beal got injured, he was re-inserted. You see, when Avdija was starting and playing with Beal and Porzingis he was 12/28. But put Avdija in a position where doesn't have offensive powerhouses to make the game easy for him - i.e. where he has to do what Rui does - create from scratch and the bottom falls out of the tub.

Since being benched Avdija is shooting 26.3% from the field and 6.7% from 3. When he plays with Beal or Porzingis teams help off of him and thus inflate his numbers. Now that he's coming off the bench, we are seeing a player who has no discernable way to attack a defense. Since we drafted him, every time I see Avdija make a decisive play and score I am always shocked. Perhaps even more shocking is though is that when Rui was shooting 50/40/90 people on this board was calling for him to be removed from the team. Addition by subtraction they cried. Yet, when Avdija is putting these kinds of numbers, they are silent.

Without a significant and profound change, Avdija is likely headed not just out of the rotation but out ultimately out of the league. Avdija over Haliburton will haunt us for years to come.

[doclinkin]

Yeah either Shepp is really incompetent (certainly possible) or this is a backdoor tank job. Riding the season long health of KP & Brad with little quality depth around them is a recipe for a team that could be much closer to the VW sweepstakes than run at the play-in by the mid-way point.

That's what Grunfeld always did. One star at a spot with nobody behind them, then ride them heavy minutes until they wear down. Lottery to follow. Maybe Tommy is following in his steps.

[payitforward]

People might not want to hear this but we need to talk about Deni Avdija. His numbers are shockingly bad. 33% from the field and 22% from 3. Yes, his defense is solid but no one's defense is solid enough for us for an NBA team to overlook this level of offensive ineptitude. I remember reading discussing the Wizards on twitter the other day, and a fan who was trying genuinely trying to defend Avdija claimed that "Avdija plays winning basketball." This just confirmed my opinion that in Wizards land up is down and down is up.

In fact, if you look closer at the numbers and even clearer story appears. Avdija was benched against the Celtics and then removed from the starting lineup. After Beal got injured, he was re-inserted. You see, when Avdija was starting and playing with Beal and Porzingis he was 12/28. But put Avdija in a position where doesn't have offensive powerhouses to make the game easy for him - i.e. where he has to do what Rui does - create from scratch and the bottom falls out of the tub.

Since being benched Avdija is shooting 26.3% from the field and 6.7% from 3. When he plays with Beal or Porzingis teams help off of him and thus inflate his numbers. Now that he's coming off the bench, we are seeing a player who has no discernable way to attack a defense. Since we drafted him, every time I see Avdija make a decisive play and score I am always shocked. Perhaps even more shocking is though is that when Rui was shooting 50/40/90 people on this board was calling for him to be removed from the team. Addition by subtraction they cried. Yet, when Avdija is putting these kinds of numbers, they are silent.

Without a significant and profound change, Avdija is likely headed not just out of the rotation but out ultimately out of the league. Avdija over Haliburton will haunt us for years to come.

It's hard to disagree with this.

About a week ago, I was about to write a post saying that I was sick & tired of waiting on both Rui & Deni, then Rui had a couple of good games, & I decided not to write a post like that.

But, you've pulled back the curtain, & now I think I will.

Whether you like hearing it or not, prime, we've wasted 4 drafts in a row. Rui will turn 25 in @ 12 weeks, & despite what you think he hasn't made significant progress towards establishing himself in the league. His numbers so far this year are worse than last year. & both years are worse than his rookie year -- which wasn't good. So, he's a long long long way from making it as a good NBA player.

Deni has been better than Rui overall, but that's not saying much, & he's playing like crap this season.

There's certainly hope that Kispert develops well, but look at a few of the guys taken below him! In particular, Trey Murphy (whom a lot of folks here wanted). The pick of Davis speaks for itself.

& of course we've totally wasted R2 in all 4 of those drafts.

So, yeah, in 2019 we could have had Clarke & 1 of Thybulle, Grant Williams, or Keldon Johnson. Plus we could have taken a good player in R2.

In 2020 it was Haliburton along with either Tre Jones or KMart Jr. (or maybe both of them).

In 2021, make it Murphy, Herb Jones & Dosunmu. This year, we could have had 2 players instead of Davis -- each of them with more potential than Davis seems to have. Not to mention a solid prospect out of R2.

Clarke, Johnson, Caleb Martin, Haliburton, Tre Jones, KMart Jr., Murphy, Herb Jones, Dosunmu, Eason, & TyTy Washington (or Nembhard) plus 1 or 2 more in this year's R2 is one hell of a lot better than Rui, Deni, Corey & Johnny.

So, yeah, unless these bums completely turn it around... I'm sick of tjhem. They're no help.

[doclinkin]

Said it in the POTG thread but here too:

Liked the energy of Jordan Goodwin at point. Liked that he got to finish the game to preserve the lead. Kuz was the primary playmaker, stepped up big time, Deni handled some, which let Jordan Goodwin pour his energy into defense and making winning plays. So far he lives up to his last name.

Goodwin
Kispert
Deni
Rui
Kuzma

was a good look. The three tweener bigs seem to play well with each other. Kispert generally looks like he belongs out there. Add Goodwin's energy and attitude.

[dckingsfan]

Said it in the POTG thread but here too:

Liked the energy of Jordan Goodwin at point. Liked that he got to finish the game to preserve the lead. Kuz was the primary playmaker, stepped up big time, Deni handled some, which let Jordan Goodwin pour his energy into defense and making winning plays. So far he lives up to his last name.

Goodwin
Kispert
Deni
Rui
Kuzma

was a good look. The three tweener bigs seem to play well with each other. Kispert generally looks like he belongs out there. Add Goodwin's energy and attitude.

When Delon Wright and Beal come back, it is going to make it very "interesting" for Wes. Wright, Morris, Goodwin, Beal, Kispert and Barton are all essentially playing guard.

I would argue that Wright, Beal and Goodwin have played the best this season. But Morris has played the most minutes - I can't see Wes getting away from that... but another (small minutes) look (for a defensive rotation):

Goodwin
Wright
Deni
Kuzma
Porzingis

On offense let Kuz/Porzingis do the heavy work.

[Menace2Sobriety]

I hope these past 4 games are instructive for Wes. Team looks different, KP looks different w/out Beal.

[tleikheen]

Anyone that advocates getting rid of Beal is not a Wiz fan. Beal is shooting very efficiently and though he can be a gunner and get his 30ppg he has "tryed" to play with his team mates. The Beal the Wiz need is the 20/25 ppg Beal who occasionally gets 30 pts plus.
The direct beneficiary of Beal missing games is Deni who defers to Beal and immediatly gives up the rock instead of taking off after snaring a rebound. We need Deni to play freely and go when a fast pace is advantageous. Beal can get his own and thats needed ,What is really great ,Rui can get his own in a bully style and Kuz just makes up his mind and uses length on his drives. KP is long range ,drives and midrange game and getting to the line. In my mind the one who held the offense back was WUJ who didnt see playing big was the way for the Wiz to win ballgames. The Wiz outplayed ,outscored the 2nd best offense in the league playing bigball and it was exciting to watch.