Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[nate33]

The winning starts with Embiid, Turner, Lonzo, LaVine, Morant, Bane, LaMelo all being out. The only quality win against a full-strength team was Utah. Dallas, but aside from Bitcoin Dinwiddie they were tired and have been playing badly on the road. Plus we have never lost in our pink uniforms, they make us invincible.

I like how we have been playing. Team ball, Porzingis out of his mind, growth from Deni, energy from role-players, leadership from Kuzma. Improvement and progress are a good thing. But we have not hit the hard patch of our schedule.

I've been trying to figure out why the team seems to play better without Beal. Yes, Doc is right that the schedule has a lot to do with it, but there is more.

First of all, it's not that Beal is some kind of selfish shot-jacker who is freezing out his teammates and instead forcing bad one-on-one possessions. Beal's FGA's per minute are down 30% from 2 years ago, his scoring efficiency is at the best of his career, and his assist rate is second only to last year when he really was the PG for much of the year. These are not the stats of selfish player or a guy that likes to play hero ball.

I think the problem is that Beal feels like he needs to "do something" with the ball every time he gets it. That's fine if it means a quick hard drive to the rim or a catch and shoot, or a give-and-go with Porzingis; but often, Beal just puts the ball on the floor without any real intention and allows the defense to get back into position. What I'm noticing now is that, without Beal, the ball just doesn't stick. Nobody other than Kuzma really has much ability to generate anything in isolation, so if they get the ball and have no lane to attack, they immediately swing it to the next guy and then make a cut.

I'd be real curious to see the play tracking data and see what percentage of possessions Beal has the ball for less than 1 second. I bet it's really low.

[Jimmy Recard]

I think the other thing that needs to be mentioned is the drop off defensively with Brad in the lineup. It’s not that he’s some godawful defender, just that he’s undersized at the position, and with Morris at the other guard spot it compounds the issue. Your playing with a disadvantage when your starting backcourt are both below average defenders. With Corey at the 2, our wings are 6’8, 6’9 and 6’10 respectively. Then we have a giant at Center manning the paint.

[Frichuela]

I think the other thing that needs to be mentioned is the drop off defensively with Brad in the lineup. It’s not that he’s some godawful defender, just that he’s undersized at the position, and with Morris at the other guard spot it compounds the issue. Your playing with a disadvantage when your starting backcourt are both below average defenders. With Corey at the 2, our wings are 6’8, 6’9 and 6’10 respectively. Then we have a giant at Center manning the paint.

This. Agreed 100%! Ideally, Monte and Beal should not play together. Brad should be paired with a strong backcourt defender and now we have two! (Wright and Goodwin). If none of these two are available, I rather play a supersize me line up with Deni, Rui and Hachi next to Brad. Both Deni and Kuz can act as point forwards.

[gambitx777]

I think the other thing that needs to be mentioned is the drop off defensively with Brad in the lineup. It’s not that he’s some godawful defender, just that he’s undersized at the position, and with Morris at the other guard spot it compounds the issue. Your playing with a disadvantage when your starting backcourt are both below average defenders. With Corey at the 2, our wings are 6’8, 6’9 and 6’10 respectively. Then we have a giant at Center manning the paint.

This. Agreed 100%! Ideally, Monte and Beal should not play together. Brad should be paired with a strong backcourt defender and now we have two! (Wright and Goodwin). If none of these two are available, I rather play a supersize me line up with Deni, Rui and Hachi next to Brad. Both Deni and Kuz can act as point forwards.

That's what I've been trying to say! Keep Beal and Morris off the floor together. Starting Beal at PG does this. So does finding another PG but I digress.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[dckingsfan]

I think the other thing that needs to be mentioned is the drop off defensively with Brad in the lineup. It’s not that he’s some godawful defender, just that he’s undersized at the position, and with Morris at the other guard spot it compounds the issue. Your playing with a disadvantage when your starting backcourt are both below average defenders. With Corey at the 2, our wings are 6’8, 6’9 and 6’10 respectively. Then we have a giant at Center manning the paint.

This. Agreed 100%! Ideally, Monte and Beal should not play together. Brad should be paired with a strong backcourt defender and now we have two! (Wright and Goodwin). If none of these two are available, I rather play a supersize me line up with Deni, Rui and Hachi next to Brad. Both Deni and Kuz can act as point forwards.

That's what I've been trying to say! Keep Beal and Morris off the floor together. Starting Beal at PG does this. So does finding another PG but I digress.

This was predictable based upon Wes' previous rotations, IMO. Now let's see if he can learn from this.

The success has been predicated on bigger lineups and the defense. Moving Morris to the bench is going to be quite hard though. This is where you would want your GM to help the coach out.

[dobrojim]

I think the other thing that needs to be mentioned is the drop off defensively with Brad in the lineup. It’s not that he’s some godawful defender, just that he’s undersized at the position, and with Morris at the other guard spot it compounds the issue. Your playing with a disadvantage when your starting backcourt are both below average defenders. With Corey at the 2, our wings are 6’8, 6’9 and 6’10 respectively. Then we have a giant at Center manning the paint.

This. Agreed 100%! Ideally, Monte and Beal should not play together. Brad should be paired with a strong backcourt defender and now we have two! (Wright and Goodwin). If none of these two are available, I rather play a supersize me line up with Deni, Rui and Hachi next to Brad. Both Deni and Kuz can act as point forwards.

That's what I've been trying to say! Keep Beal and Morris off the floor together. Starting Beal at PG does this. So does finding another PG but I digress.

Starting Wright (when he returns) or Goodwin seems like something worth trying.

[bsilver]

WUJ doesn’t seem to like making changes, so would expect to see Beal and Morris start. OKC has big guards, SGA, Giddey, and Dort. Morris gives up too much size to guard any of them. Beal can’t guard SGA, so expect to see Deni try. Doesn’t make much sense. Goodwin should start ahead of Morris against OKC, and guard SGA.

[Kanyewest]

Monte Morris just received the defensive belt for the game against the Grizzlies - chosen by the previous recipient of the award. I can't imagine the Wizards are planning to change the lineup coming into this game and on a 4 game winning streak.

They could close the game differently though.

[DCZards]

Monte Morris just received the defensive belt for the game against the Grizzlies - chosen by the previous recipient of the award. I can't imagine the Wizards are planning to change the lineup coming into this game and on a 4 game winning streak.

They could close the game differently though.

Agreed. I’m not a fan of changing your starting lineup based on your opponent…especially when you’re on a winning streak.

You start your regular starters and then make in-game adjustments based on what happens during the game.

The calls here to bench Morris in favor of Goodwin are premature, IMO.

[dobrojim]

Agreed as well. I expect Morris to start.

And everyone has trouble with SGA.

[payitforward]

I'm glad to see this sequence of posts in support of Monte Morris. Sometimes I am just completely mystified by the comments about certain players. Both positive & negative, there are often statements that just seem not to jibe with reality ("reality" being defined by the actual numbers players record in actual games).

Monte needs to bring his 3 point % back up to his usual level of @40%, & I don't see much reason why he wouldn't do just that. In every other way, he's having a fine season.

[dckingsfan]

I'm glad to see this sequence of posts in support of Monte Morris. Sometimes I am just completely mystified by the comments about certain players. Both positive & negative, there are often statements that just seem not to jibe with reality ("reality" being defined by the actual numbers players record in actual games).

Monte needs to bring his 3 point % back up to his usual level of @40%, & I don't see much reason why he wouldn't do just that. In every other way, he's having a fine season.

Two things. Morris having a fine season and Morris partnered up with Beal in the backcourt.

I think there are some positives and negatives to take from that partnership as well.

And I think it is both his 2 point & 3 point %s that are suffering on a small sample size.

[payitforward]

... Morris having a fine season... I think it is both his 2 point & 3 point %s that are suffering on a small sample size.

True enough. & so is his FT% for that matter.

But, when one makes note of the fact, in the context of addressing what kind of season he's having, shouldn't one also point out that his defensive rebounds are up?
& while at it, wouldn't it also make sense to point out that his offensive rebounds are also up?
Which might provide, don't you think, a useful occasion to mention that his assists are up?
To which, might one not also want to note that his TOs are down, that he's blocking marginally more shots, & that his fouls are slightly down as well?

I'm sure you get my point.

Monte had quite a good outing last night as well, wouldn't you say?

But, of course, he still needs to bring up his scoring averages!
Especially because, if he did that, he might wind up with the best season of his career.

& since his career so far has been quite good, that would make it even clearer what a strong contributor he is -- & what a bargain he is at his current salary.

[dckingsfan]

... Morris having a fine season... I think it is both his 2 point & 3 point %s that are suffering on a small sample size.

True enough. & so is his FT% for that matter.

But, when one makes note of the fact, in the context of addressing what kind of season he's having, shouldn't one also point out that his defensive rebounds are up?
& while at it, wouldn't it also make sense to point out that his offensive rebounds are also up?
Which might provide, don't you think, a useful occasion to mention that his assists are up?
To which, might one not also want to note that his TOs are down, that he's blocking marginally more shots, & that his fouls are slightly down as well?

I'm sure you get my point.

Monte had quite a good outing last night as well, wouldn't you say?

But, of course, he still needs to bring up his scoring averages!
Especially because, if he did that, he might wind up with the best season of his career.

& since his career so far has been quite good, that would make it even clearer what a strong contributor he is -- & what a bargain he is at his current salary.

Agreed, I would also note that his defensive deflections are down and he is being assigned to the weakest offensive player on the other side. Add to that his defensive rating in raptor isn't all that.

And to the anecdotal - he has had a couple of really good games.

And back to the point of this thread. I still think that Brad (while he is here) is better paired with a different PG. That doesn't mean we shouldn't play Morris - the notion is that he could be better utilized in a different rotation.

[DCZards]

Very interesting how much Wes Jr went with Beal and Goodwin (until he got hurt) down the stretch. At one point in the 4th, Beal, Goodwin and Morris were on the court together with Goodwin bringing the ball up.

[montestewart]

... Morris having a fine season... I think it is both his 2 point & 3 point %s that are suffering on a small sample size.

True enough. & so is his FT% for that matter.

But, when one makes note of the fact, in the context of addressing what kind of season he's having, shouldn't one also point out that his defensive rebounds are up?
& while at it, wouldn't it also make sense to point out that his offensive rebounds are also up?
Which might provide, don't you think, a useful occasion to mention that his assists are up?
To which, might one not also want to note that his TOs are down, that he's blocking marginally more shots, & that his fouls are slightly down as well?

I'm sure you get my point.

Monte had quite a good outing last night as well, wouldn't you say?

But, of course, he still needs to bring up his scoring averages!
Especially because, if he did that, he might wind up with the best season of his career.

& since his career so far has been quite good, that would make it even clearer what a strong contributor he is -- & what a bargain he is at his current salary.

Agreed, I would also note that his defensive deflections are down and he is being assigned to the weakest offensive player on the other side. Add to that his defensive rating in raptor isn't all that.

And to the anecdotal - he has had a couple of really good games.

And back to the point of this thread. I still think that Brad (while he is here) is better paired with a different PG. That doesn't mean we shouldn't play Morris - the notion is that he could be better utilized in a different rotation.

Avdija, Gafford, Wright, Goodwin are IMO the best defenders. Maybe more than one of them in the starting lineup? It’s not like any of them are left unguarded on offense.

Morris is the steadiest PG, might right the second unit and make them a more consistent threat to hold leads. Morris could be first off the bench when the starters’ offense looks sloppy.

Starting or off the bench, he is giving good value. Despite not being very quick, he’ll go inside and bounce and spin around without losing the ball. Sometimes he reminds of Andre Miller, but Morris can also hit threes. He plays in control.

[dobrojim]

I need to remind myself to check in over at Bullets Forever more
regularly to get my misperceptions addressed. I trust TSW to be
level headed in his analysis more than I trust myself.

We're a better defensive team than offensive team right now.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/11/16/23461240/wizards-ride-defense-to-4-game-winning-streak

[AFM]

I need to remind myself to check in over at Bullets Forever more
regularly to get my misperceptions addressed. I trust TSW to be
level headed in his analysis more than I trust myself.

We're a better defensive team than offensive team right now.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/11/16/23461240/wizards-ride-defense-to-4-game-winning-streak

He has a podcast as well. Pretty infrequent but not that bad tbh

[Dat2U]

Per 538s RAPTOR player ratings:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/?player=Bradley%20Beal&season=2023

Code: Select all

Player              Pos Min Off  Def  Total WAR
1 Delon Wright      PG  91 -1.0 +12.8 +11.8 0.7
2 Kristaps PorzingisPF 440 +4.6 +3.7  +8.2  2.4
3 Jordan Goodwin    SG 171 +1.5 +3.2  +4.6  0.6
4 Bradley Beal      SG 353 +3.2 -2.0  +1.2  0.7
5 Daniel Gafford    C  212 -3.1 +4.2  +1.1  0.4
6 Kyle Kuzma        PF 500 -1.1 -0.3  -1.4  0.3
7 Monte Morris      PG 413 +0.2 -1.8  -1.7  0.2
8 Anthony Gill      PF 173 +0.9 -2.8  -2.0  0.1
9 Corey Kispert     SF 157 -2.2 +0.1  -2.1  0.0
10 Deni Avdija      SF 345 -2.5 +0.4  -2.2  0.1
11 Rui Hachimura    PF 347 -4.3 -0.9  -5.2 -0.4
12 Will Barton      SG 350 -2.7 -3.9  -6.6 -0.7

The good:
Delon Wright (was incredible defensively before injury), Porzingis (playing the best of his career - all-star level), Goodwin , Beal (good not great starter ) & Gafford (despite being a train wreck offensively).

The bad:
Kuzma (expected), Morris (expected), Gill (expected), Kispert (its early though), Avdija (biggest disappointment so far, defense isn't making up for inability to finish or hit open shots).

The ugly:
Hachimura (expected) & Barton (was never good but a career down year so far).

[AFM]

Barton is a chucker which means you take the good with the bad. Unfortunately so far, he's just been bad.