Project Pat | The PaW | Patrick Williams Thread

[pipfan]

I still believe in PWill and I still see (if I squint) a really good player

[DuckIII]

He averages 0.8 rebounds per 36 more than Pat.

DJJ averages the same number of defensive rebounds, but double the offensive boards. Since defensive rebounds are mostly unchallenged while offensive ones always are, that's a pretty big difference for me, especially as DJJ is considerable smaller.

And to clarify, I am not so much criticizing Pat as being puzzled.

It’s an insignificant difference. Its also easily explained by the distinction in their offensive usage. Pat is on the perimeter for kick out threes. So not only is he by design out of position but he releases to play defense as a matter of strategy.

Lastly, why are defensive rebounds uncontested? You believe players like DJJ are mixing it up there to contest. Guys don’t do that when Pat is on defense?

[Ice Man]

It’s an insignificant difference.

No, it's not insignificant. Offensive rebounds are uncommon and valuable. Due to that rebound, the team that gets the offensive board goes from facing an average of conceding 1 point (the average amount scored on a possession) to scoring an average of 1 point. That is a 2-point swing, the same as with turnovers or steals. Every 36 minutes, DJJ causes one more 2-point swing for the Bulls from offensive rebounding than Pat does.

Yes, that matters.

[Ice Man]

To support my previous point -- which is not about kicking around Pat, actually I have been modestly encouraged by his recent play -- I offer the following example.

Jimmy Butler - 23/7/5 per 36 minutes, 62% TS%
Kyle Kuzma - 22/8/4 per 36 minutes, 55% TS%

OK, Butler is better. Before scoring effiency became an important statistic, fans might well have said those guys were similar, but today we would say yeah sure Butler is statistically better. But not night and day better.

Yet ... on Win Shares per 48 minutes, Butler ranks #2 in the NBA (behind Jokic, Embiid is 3rd), while Kuzma is 168th. Say what?

Some of the difference, of course, is measurement error, although every modern stat says that Butler is a lot better than Kuzma. And some cannot be captured by statistics, being things like "who keeps his man in front of him." But tehre are some statistical clues -

Offensive Rebounds - Butler 2.2, Kuzma 1.0
Turnovers - Butler 1.8, Kuzma 3.5
Steals - Butler 2.2, Kuzma 0.5

With those three numbers alone, Butler creates 4.6 more 2-point swings in his team's favor per 36 minutes than does Kuzma. Nine points per 36 minutes from the ancillary statistics! That's a big explanation for why Butler really, really helps a team win, while the Kuzma is just another NBA player.

That's what I am about in urging Pat to notch up his offensive boards (and steals, as his turnovers aren't all that bad.)

[drosestruts]

I do agree with Ice Man that not all rebounds are equal, and I do have offensive rebounds as being more valuable (for lack of a better word) than a defensive rebounds.

Not sure how I'd quantify or calculate how much more valuable

[MikeDC]

I do agree with Ice Man that not all rebounds are equal, and I do have offensive rebounds as being more valuable (for lack of a better word) than a defensive rebounds.

Not sure how I'd quantify or calculate how much more valuable

This is a little bit inconsistent, I think an offensive rebound is getting yourself another possession. So, it should be valued at whatever your half-court points per possession is.

So if the expected value of a half court possession is 1.0, that's what an offensive rebound is worth.

I think of a defensive rebound as ending the opponent's possession. But it's a possession where they've already gotten a shot off, and you're just closing it out. So the value is something like the half court PPP times the probability of getting an ORB.

So if the ORB rate is like 20% and the value of a half court possession is still 1.0, then I'd say the value of a defensive rebound is about 0.2.

It has some value, but it's also just something that happens in the natural course of the game, so that's why I factor in the probability of an ORB. Most of the time, you're just getting a DRB as a matter of course. I admit that this is a little inconsistent, because you could just look at it as stopping the other team from getting an ORB and value it at 1.0 too, but that just doesn't seem right to my interpretation of the actual game. The ORB having more value reflects the fact that the player is going off and getting it which is a higher effort play.

[DuckIII]

It’s an insignificant difference.

No, it's not insignificant. Offensive rebounds are uncommon and valuable. Due to that rebound, the team that gets the offensive board goes from facing an average of conceding 1 point (the average amount scored on a possession) to scoring an average of 1 point. That is a 2-point swing, the same as with turnovers or steals. Every 36 minutes, DJJ causes one more 2-point swing for the Bulls from offensive rebounding than Pat does.

Yes, that matters.

I’m not disregarding the value of an offensive rebound (though a defensive one prevents that same scoring opportunity). I’m saying it’s not a significant difference, particularly when they are by design not being placed in the same roles to accumulate the same types of statistics.

[kodo]

I'm not really concerned with Patrick's rebounds, because it's a team thing where everyone just lets Vucevic get all the rebounds. This happens all the time but here's one example during the ATL game where the rebound just goes straight to Derozan and he actually backs away from it and lets it hit the ground (HS coaches are angry right now) so Vuc can get it.


Everyone has a specific role on this team, and Patrick's isn't to get rebounds. If he was in another situation where coaching wanted him to aggressively board and push the ball up to attack defenses before they can set up he's probably capable. But that's not our style, and if not pushing the ball, who gets uncontested rebounds generally isn't important.

[Stratmaster]

Will Perdue went in on this in the post game. When the ball was moving, PW was moving and was actually inside the arc a bit more so could actually get into rebounding position.

When Demar and Zach go ISO, the other players need to clear out and, as the best 3P shooter, PW needs to stay outside the arc as a bailout option. So of course he isn't going to be able to crash the boards as much.

KG and Will were PISSED, and Will Perdue laid a lot of the blame on Demar.

I watched. How was Pat active? Cause the few rebounds he does get in wide open space, he does it cool-like with a single big paw? I recall a single impressive rebound in traffic.

You can’t crash the boards because you need to stand outside? What a cop out excuse. That’s a great opportunity to at least try to hit the offensive glass since turning and looking without boxing out is an issue at all levels. You can get in there with a running start, and often you’ll fail, but about never do I recall…hey, Pat’s in there fighting.

He doesn’t impact the game via his own will, and relies on everyone else. People need to stop blaming other players. The point of the game isn’t to prop up Pat.

All that said, yes, I put heavy blame on DeMar and Billy in terms of the loss for frequently acting like it’s the last 5 minutes of the game when it’s actually the first half of the 3rd. I don’t blame them for milk carton Pat…other than Billy playing a ton of milk carton Pat…but a huge amt of that’s actually on AK.

Pat is his own worst enemy. That much is obvious and no one really argues that.

But what I am saying, in this game in particular he wasn't at fault. At least not this game.

Calling him out this game just seems completely random given how everything transpired.

Everyone probably was calling out how TERRIBLE Zach Lavine was. I know I was. He was TV Smashing bad last night.

Zach Lavine was terrible. So was Williams after the first quarter.

Both can be true and one has nothing to do with the other.

The Bulls would be better off with Williams playing limited minutes instead of starting, and that is especially bad because it is true despite the fact they have no other real PF on the team.

[Stratmaster]

Why can't Pat do what DJJ does? After all, DJJ is directly replacing Pat, at the same position and presumably guarding the same guys, with the same responsibility. But DJJ figures out how to be a pest on the offensive boards (he averages twice as many as Pat), despite being shorter and skinnier.

Not to take away from your point because it is still valid. But its an easy answer. DJJ plays primarily on the inside. That is his game. Not 3s.

And DJJ is primarily playing with the rest of the bench, who tend to move the ball and not let it stick. Patrick is playing with Zach and Demar, who go iso on a very regular basis.

Respectfully... just more excuses.

Jones takes about three 3 point shots per 36. Williams 4.4. Jones isn't camped out in the paint.

Jones 5 man lineups show he has played the most minutes with a lineup that has Demar in it. 2nd most with Lavine, and his 3rd most has both Lavine and Vuc.

The Bulls most successful 5 man lineup is actually Goran, Caruso, Lavine, Jones and Drummond.

The fact that Jones has made more of an impression on us in his 551 minutes of playing time than Williams has in his 1369 gifted minutes is all we need to know.

[Chi town]

Funny how Billy is pleading with Pat to get 10 rebounds per game and some fans are convinced it’s not important and by design that he doesn’t.

Same story. Pat needs to play with more aggression and force. Impact the game. Don’t watch it, Pat.

[DuckIII]

Funny how Billy is pleading with Pat to get 10 rebounds per game and some fans are convinced it’s not important and by design that he doesn’t.

Same story. Pat needs to play with more aggression and force. Impact the game. Don’t watch it, Pat.

I could give two **** about Billy’s statements. It’s the same thing he says about Pat’s scoring despite setting the team up and designing offensive strategies with predictably contrary results. It’s white noise at this point.

Yes Pat needs to rebound better. When he is inside he does not get good position and has substandard instincts. He should be getting more boards based on his profile.

But his low rebounding numbers are also clearly the product of his offensive usage and the modern trend of having wings release on the shot. It’s not just Pat’s numbers that substantiate this, as I detailed earlier. It’s how our system is designed.

As with Pat’s scoring, the frustration is a combination of multiple factors. Some of those factors are in Pat’s control, some aren’t.

[Wingy]

Will Perdue went in on this in the post game. When the ball was moving, PW was moving and was actually inside the arc a bit more so could actually get into rebounding position.

When Demar and Zach go ISO, the other players need to clear out and, as the best 3P shooter, PW needs to stay outside the arc as a bailout option. So of course he isn't going to be able to crash the boards as much.

KG and Will were PISSED, and Will Perdue laid a lot of the blame on Demar.

I watched. How was Pat active? Cause the few rebounds he does get in wide open space, he does it cool-like with a single big paw? I recall a single impressive rebound in traffic.

You can’t crash the boards because you need to stand outside? What a cop out excuse. That’s a great opportunity to at least try to hit the offensive glass since turning and looking without boxing out is an issue at all levels. You can get in there with a running start, and often you’ll fail, but about never do I recall…hey, Pat’s in there fighting.

He doesn’t impact the game via his own will, and relies on everyone else. People need to stop blaming other players. The point of the game isn’t to prop up Pat.

All that said, yes, I put heavy blame on DeMar and Billy in terms of the loss for frequently acting like it’s the last 5 minutes of the game when it’s actually the first half of the 3rd. I don’t blame them for milk carton Pat…other than Billy playing a ton of milk carton Pat…but a huge amt of that’s actually on AK.

Pat is his own worst enemy. That much is obvious and no one really argues that.

But what I am saying, in this game in particular he wasn't at fault. At least not this game.

Calling him out this game just seems completely random given how everything transpired.

Everyone probably was calling out how TERRIBLE Zach Lavine was. I know I was. He was TV Smashing bad last night.

To my exact point about the "needs to stay outside" excuse:
https://cdn.allchgo.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/25111740/New-Video.mp4

Yes, it's garbage time. But there is absolutely nothing stopping Pat from attempting runs like this when he sees an opportunity. It's on him.

You think there's some scheme stopping him from fighting for offensive boards? Do we think the coach is going to scold him?

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bulls/bulls-billy-donovan-challenges-patrick-williams-rebound-more

He has to try and put in the effort. He makes himself invisible. Not DeMar, not Zach, not Vuc.

[DuckIII]

You think there's some scheme stopping him from fighting for offensive boards? Do we think the coach is going to scold him?

Your questions are facetious, but the answer is yes. There has been a growing trend in the NBA over the last several years of largely ignoring offensive rebounding by design in favor of releasing to set up the defense. Some teams do it, some don’t. We are one of the teams who do. From an article I read about the Mavericks attempt to do both:

That has changed in the last decade, when some of the best known and most successful coaches in the NBA started to largely ignore offensive rebounding in favor of establishing consistent defensive position. For years, the Popovich-led Spurs have sent four or five players back in transition. Last season, Zaza Pachulia was the only player Rick Carlisle allowed to chase offensive boards. And notable defensive-minded coach Doc Rivers doesn’t even pay attention to his team’s offensive rebounding numbers: “That is a number I rarely look at, is offensive rebounds. Statistically it holds up. I can tell you, you don’t offensive rebound, you stop transition, you win more games than when you get offensive rebounds. I can guarantee you that on those stats.”

This is a thing. Coaches in the NBA are explicitly requiring that players not crash the offensive glass and will create a designated rebounder. This is clearly what Billy is doing as well. You can see it in the games and the team’s rebounding numbers bear it out.

[DuckIII]

I'm not really concerned with Patrick's rebounds, because it's a team thing where everyone just lets Vucevic get all the rebounds. This happens all the time but here's one example during the ATL game where the rebound just goes straight to Derozan and he actually backs away from it and lets it hit the ground (HS coaches are angry right now) so Vuc can get it.


Everyone has a specific role on this team, and Patrick's isn't to get rebounds. If he was in another situation where coaching wanted him to aggressively board and push the ball up to attack defenses before they can set up he's probably capable. But that's not our style, and if not pushing the ball, who gets uncontested rebounds generally isn't important.

Great post. It happens all the time. With Drummond too. We have a “designated rebounder” as a matter of design and it’s the center. It’s plain as day. And as I just posted, it’s not that uncommon anymore in today’s NBA.

Not sure why that part is even being debated. If you hate Pat’s rebounding you can still hate it while acknowledging that this is how the team is coached. Because even with this strategy, Pat still has to be a better rebounder on his own accord.

[fleet]

Funny how Billy is pleading with Pat to get 10 rebounds per game and some fans are convinced it’s not important and by design that he doesn’t.

Same story. Pat needs to play with more aggression and force. Impact the game. Don’t watch it, Pat.

I could give two **** about Billy’s statements. It’s the same thing he says about Pat’s scoring despite setting the team up and designing offensive strategies with predictably contrary results. It’s white noise at this point.

Yes Pat needs to rebound better. When he is inside he does not get good position and has substandard instincts. He should be getting more boards based on his profile.

But his low rebounding numbers are also clearly the product of his offensive usage and the modern trend of having wings release on the shot. It’s not just Pat’s numbers that substantiate this, as I detailed earlier. It’s how our system is designed.

As with Pat’s scoring, the frustration is a combination of multiple factors. Some of those factors are in Pat’s control, some aren’t.

There’s some truth to that stuff. I’ve often noticed from the beginning he is not in position to get on the glass and have argued that. If Billy wants him on the glass, make Pat lay his body on people in the paint immediately when the scorers take shots, and go up every time. Then we’ll see. Make Pat watch Rodman game tape and tell him to be Rodman. If Pat isn’t asked to score, get his role more definitive. It’s almost as if they are saying he isn’t following directions.

[chitownsports4ever]

I'm not really concerned with Patrick's rebounds, because it's a team thing where everyone just lets Vucevic get all the rebounds. This happens all the time but here's one example during the ATL game where the rebound just goes straight to Derozan and he actually backs away from it and lets it hit the ground (HS coaches are angry right now) so Vuc can get it.


Everyone has a specific role on this team, and Patrick's isn't to get rebounds. If he was in another situation where coaching wanted him to aggressively board and push the ball up to attack defenses before they can set up he's probably capable. But that's not our style, and if not pushing the ball, who gets uncontested rebounds generally isn't important.

Its not a "team thing" to let Vooch get all the rebounds when we are getting consisntely destroyed on the offensive glass.

The clip of Demar in the first 2 minutes of a basketball game not challenging Vooch for a rebound proves nothing because Demar really never challenges anyone for a rebounds. If it wasn't Vooch there he would simply let a defender grab the board and then tap his chest and say my bad.

Billys system is not about ONE rebounder and 4 other guys who just stand there its actually supposed to be a good rebounding/ passing big and 4 good ALL AROUND players which means they all can rebound and push off those rebound .Hence why in your video Ayo is actually behind Vooch in that play and never comes to the ball instead simply takes off running

Billy at one point had a PG who averaged a triple double in Westbrook and I think what Billy is coming to grips with is that Demar and Zach simply dont have as good as floor games as Pg13, KD, or Westbrook or even Melo in some cases as those guys were stat sheet stuffers chasing pts rebounds and assists while Demar and Zach seem to chase only buckets.

Zo was averaging 5 rebounds per game before his injury and I agree with Billy that Pat is pulled away from the basket a lot but I still expect him to average more than 4 rebounds per game . I think my prediction for the season was for him to average 12-13 pts and 7 rebounds and its not really surprising that people want and expect him to play with the energy he brought against Atlanta all the time even if it doesn't always amount to 18 pts and 10 rebounds

[Stratmaster]

Funny how Billy is pleading with Pat to get 10 rebounds per game and some fans are convinced it’s not important and by design that he doesn’t.

Same story. Pat needs to play with more aggression and force. Impact the game. Don’t watch it, Pat.

I could give two **** about Billy’s statements. It’s the same thing he says about Pat’s scoring despite setting the team up and designing offensive strategies with predictably contrary results. It’s white noise at this point.

Yes Pat needs to rebound better. When he is inside he does not get good position and has substandard instincts. He should be getting more boards based on his profile.

But his low rebounding numbers are also clearly the product of his offensive usage and the modern trend of having wings release on the shot. It’s not just Pat’s numbers that substantiate this, as I detailed earlier. It’s how our system is designed.

As with Pat’s scoring, the frustration is a combination of multiple factors. Some of those factors are in Pat’s control, some aren’t.

Poor Pat.

Reb Per 36:
Green 6.6
Jones 6.1
Pat 5.3
Demar 5.0
Zach 4.6
Caruso 4.5
Coby 4.4
Ayo 4.0

Please don't keep defending Pat's rebounding. It's embarrassing. 4 Guards within 1 rebound of him. Both other PF's better than him. Are they playing in a different system than Pat? Are they not releasing from the wing after shots.

[madvillian]

Chicago is 8th in opponent offensive rebound rate. It's not really a problem on this team so yea, who really cares how many defensive rebounds he is or isn't getting.

We are however almost dead last in our own offensive rebound rate. I'd love to see him get some more but as he's usually in the corner not sure what can be done there other than redesigning the offense.

[MikeDC]

Chicago is 8th in opponent offensive rebound rate. It's not really a problem on this team so yea, who really cares how many defensive rebounds he is or isn't getting.

We are however almost dead last in our own offensive rebound rate. I'd love to see him get some more but as he's usually in the corner not sure what can be done there other than redesigning the offense.

It's really a defensive design, not an offensive one. The offensive design is to have Pat at the 3 point line. If DJJ is in because he can't shoot the 3 and is quicker, the offensive design usually has him closer to the basket. This is actually evidence of good coaching and the kind of adjustment that people often say never happens. It does, but really, the big thing we're talking about here is a defensive decision.

The defensive design is that, once the shot goes up, Pat (and other guys) prioritize running back on defense rather than crashing the boards to get an offensive rebound. This is basically how the whole NBA does it now, because they've get the idea in their head that getting set up on defense gives you a better probability of getting a stop than your probability of getting the offensive rebound.

Maybe that's right and maybe it's not, but it's not really controversial in the NBA. That doesn't mean you never crash the boards, but the team is asking for priority. Conceptually it's like whether to stop or go at a yellow light. Some teams say stop, some say go no matter what. The judgement call is a little different depending on what the coaches want.

With respect to Pat it doesn't really change the fact that Pat's a pretty marginal rebounder. He's lower at ORB% than goes like DJJ partly based on design, but probably also based on his decision-making and natural motor (or lack thereof). DeMar and Coby collect more DR%, which indicates to me that overall Pat ain't really all that great of a rebounder.