Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[NatP4]

Vomit

[The Consiglieri]

theringer puts us alongside Chicago in the "should've blown it up pile". Its funny to see teams like New Jersey and San Antonio acknowledge how things have gone wrong after multiple iterations of competitive eras, meanwhile we spend literally every single ------- season for decades on end trying somehow to get our cold dead fingers wrapped around an 8 seed. So frustrating.

[FAH1223]

theringer puts us alongside Chicago in the "should've blown it up pile". Its funny to see teams like New Jersey and San Antonio acknowledge how things have gone wrong after multiple iterations of competitive eras, meanwhile we spend literally every single ------- season for decades on end trying somehow to get our cold dead fingers wrapped around an 8 seed. So frustrating.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/2/10/23594045/nba-trade-deadline-power-rankings-contenders
Should’ve Blown It Up
22. Washington Wizards
“The playoffs are always the goal, the ultimate destination,” Wizards general manager Tommy Sheppard told NBC Sports Washington after the trade deadline. I’m sure Sheppard is speaking for his owner. Ernie Grunfeld made similar statements in the past when the Wizards were stuck in the middle with a team that had no chance to make the Finals but was OK enough to make the playoffs. That’s where they are now, unfortunately, in part because of too many whiffed draft picks by Sheppard himself. But the best thing that can happen for this team is to miss the play-in. A higher pick can yield a player who can dig them out of the middle for the first time in decades.

[payitforward]

I DO NOT think Kuz is worth $20M+. I said I think his contract would be very movable after year 2.

Correct... my bad!

Whole thing is just depressing.

[WallToWall]

OK, let's assume that TS is confident, and he is right, in saying that Kuzma will re-sign with the Wizards. Who can we sign in the off-season that can be the #1 dog to work with a Porzingis, Beal, Kuzma lineup? Assume that we go into the tax. I am trying to see what TS sees for the makeup of this team next year.

[NatP4]

There’s no doubt that he thinks Avdija is gonna explode into a star and be that guy.

pretty set at C, PG, SG, and the 4 with Kuzma/Avdija. Still think they are seriously lacking a true wing player that can play average wing defense and spot up and shoot the 3 at a high clip.

Brandon miller is actually a perfect fit for this roster and can be that guy from day 1, but I don’t see any way they finish in the 4-7 range to be able to pick him. Maybe Sensabaugh can be that guy? Although he’s really more of a high volume scorer than a true wing.

Best case scenario would be to shut down Beal and Porzingis and let Carey&Jackson play a bunch and try and tank into a pick that lands Miller.

[The Consiglieri]

OK, let's assume that TS is confident, and he is right, in saying that Kuzma will re-sign with the Wizards. Who can we sign in the off-season that can be the #1 dog to work with a Porzingis, Beal, Kuzma lineup? Assume that we go into the tax. I am trying to see what TS sees for the makeup of this team next year.

Literally no one that matters will ever sign here as a FA, full stop. Can that change? Yep, but it will require both a culture change, and a complete demolition of the F.O. and total rebuild with a ton of luck in drafts. Since none of that is in the offing in the short term, there's nobody that's coming that can save us unless we land the #1 overall pick and even that might not break the curse.

[FAH1223]

OK, let's assume that TS is confident, and he is right, in saying that Kuzma will re-sign with the Wizards. Who can we sign in the off-season that can be the #1 dog to work with a Porzingis, Beal, Kuzma lineup? Assume that we go into the tax. I am trying to see what TS sees for the makeup of this team next year.

Literally no one that matters will ever sign here as a FA, full stop. Can that change? Yep, but it will require both a culture change, and a complete demolition of the F.O. and total rebuild with a ton of luck in drafts. Since none of that is in the offing in the short term, there's nobody that's coming that can save us unless we land the #1 overall pick and even that might not break the curse.

If we land the #1 pick, that buys Tommy so much time. He'll ruin a Wembanyama era just as keeping Ernie ruined multiple opportunities to build legitimate 50-win teams after we got John in 2010.

[Dat2U]

There’s no doubt that he thinks Avdija is gonna explode into a star and be that guy.

pretty set at C, PG, SG, and the 4 with Kuzma/Avdija. Still think they are seriously lacking a true wing player that can play average wing defense and spot up and shoot the 3 at a high clip.

Brandon miller is actually a perfect fit for this roster and can be that guy from day 1, but I don’t see any way they finish in the 4-7 range to be able to pick him. Maybe Sensabaugh can be that guy? Although he’s really more of a high volume scorer than a true wing.

Best case scenario would be to shut down Beal and Porzingis and let Carey&Jackson play a bunch and try and tank into a pick that lands Miller.

They are not set at PG. They have 3 quality backup PGs. They truly need a #1 option point blank. Wemby or Scoot would be perfect. Those are future #1 options. Brandon Miller should be good, I don't know if he's #1 option guy. Maybe more of a Khris Middleton type? Sensabaugh is very intriguing, he's so predictable but always gets to his spots. Dominating as freshman wing puts him in rare air. He's not a 3&D guy though and attempts to make him one will fail.

Gradey Dick gives off young Gordon Hayward vibes. Not a complete sieve on D either. High floor IMO.

This is the draft for wings. Anthony Black needs to be in the mix too. PG handle with wing size who can defend multiple positions. I see some Iggy in his game. Then you have Jett Howard, a 6-8 with wiggle and bounce and a legit jumper but he's allergic to rebounds and contact.

Then there's Cason Wallace who if you believe in the Jrue Holiday comparisons, can offer high level two way play if not elite playmaking in the late lottery.

Good chance Shepp does nothing and a decent player falls into his lap like 2020 (although he missed on Haliburton). Yet I am worried that his ability to sniff out hard working marginal talent is elite.

[NatP4]

“Set” meaning they have guys under contract at those positions that they like, and I don’t really expect changes.

But agree fully on your view of the draft. Gradey Dick&Sensabaugh will be there in the 8-14 range, and both are quality prospects. Gotta love Black as the upside play. Just turned 19, plays in quality league and draws fouls and shows primary playmaker upside, plays quality defense, just needs his 3pt shot to fall.

Shep loves NCAA players+foreign players+high character. He’ll love Sensabaugh forsure. Guy is very well spoken and humble. He would be my pick right now. Guys don’t just jump into a high level league at 19 and just dominate.

[nate33]

I don't understand the talk of a five year 125 million contract for Kuz. Can't we just wait to see what other offers he receives and then just match it? I can't even fathom another team offering him a four year 100 million contract.

He is not a restricted free agent. He is not compelled to stay just because we match an offer.

The way these things usually work is a suitor, let's say Indiana, will call Kuzma's agent and say: "$25M a year for Kuz, right now. Take it or leave it. The offer won't be on the table if you hang up the phone and talk to the Wizards."

Likewise, Kuzma's agent will start the summer off by talking to the Wizards and saying: "What's your best offer? I'm telling you right now, if I don't think it's good enough, I'm not giving you a second chance to up the ante." The goal is to make the Wizards bid against themselves.

All these tactics can be negated if the Wizards are comfortable with just letting Kuzma walk. That's why it's such terrible negotiating strategy to let the world know they are desperate to retain him.

[nate33]

OK, let's assume that TS is confident, and he is right, in saying that Kuzma will re-sign with the Wizards. Who can we sign in the off-season that can be the #1 dog to work with a Porzingis, Beal, Kuzma lineup? Assume that we go into the tax. I am trying to see what TS sees for the makeup of this team next year.

lol

[nate33]

OK, let's assume that TS is confident, and he is right, in saying that Kuzma will re-sign with the Wizards. Who can we sign in the off-season that can be the #1 dog to work with a Porzingis, Beal, Kuzma lineup? Assume that we go into the tax. I am trying to see what TS sees for the makeup of this team next year.

And to answer your question more seriously, we would only have the MLE to work with in this scenario. And nobody obtainable for the MLE is likely to be a starter better than any of Morris/Beal/Avdija/Kuzma/Porzingis/Gafford.

[payitforward]

I don't understand the talk of a five year 125 million contract for Kuz. Can't we just wait to see what other offers he receives and then just match it? I can't even fathom another team offering him a four year 100 million contract.

He is not a restricted free agent. He is not compelled to stay just because we match an offer.

The way these things usually work is a suitor, let's say Indiana, will call Kuzma's agent and say: "$25M a year for Kuz, right now. Take it or leave it. The offer won't be on the table if you hang up the phone and talk to the Wizards."

Likewise, Kuzma's agent will start the summer off by talking to the Wizards and saying: "What's your best offer? I'm telling you right now, if I don't think it's good enough, I'm not giving you a second chance to up the ante." The goal is to make the Wizards bid against themselves.

All these tactics can be negated if the Wizards are comfortable with just letting Kuzma walk. That's why it's such terrible negotiating strategy to let the world know they are desperate to retain him.

Your scenario rings true to some degree, although keep in mind that those two guys, the Indy guy & the agent, will need to work together again tomorrow or next week or next month, so the rhetoric won't be that severe.

Plus... the agent may actually have to come back to the Indy guy a second time! So, as the saying goes, "never say never." ..."I don't think you're likely to get a second chance" usually works equally well.

In any case, it'd be no surprise for Kuz to get $20-25m a year, & whatever team gives him that contract will live to regret it.

[gesa2]

The organization clearly believes in Kuz. Given that and our salary cap situation, we’re in the bird rights trap and will overpay for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 120 million over 4 years from us.
Threading the needle in a middle build strategy basically has us in the position that the only way we are a 50 win team in the next 4 years is if we don’t make it to the playoffs this year and either luck into a top 4 pick or go against all recent history and pick a gem from mid to late lottery. I love Deni but the chance that he becomes a straw that stirs the drink kind of guy are essentially zero, and there are no other contenders on the roster.

[Pistol King]

The organization clearly believes in Kuz. Given that and our salary cap situation, we’re in the bird rights trap and will overpay for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 120 million over 4 years from us.
Threading the needle in a middle build strategy basically has us in the position that the only way we are a 50 win team in the next 4 years is if we don’t make it to the playoffs this year and either luck into a top 4 pick or go against all recent history and pick a gem from mid to late lottery. I love Deni but the chance that he becomes a straw that stirs the drink kind of guy are essentially zero, and there are no other contenders on the roster.

Why you think so? I don't know how much time it might take but I think he aims to be that guy in the future and from the interviews he seems to be willing to work as hard has possible to get there.

[gesa2]

Like I said I like Deni a lot. I’m hopeful he’ll be a quality starter. But if we’re going to be a 50 win team we need a top 15 player and I don’t think he’s going to get that far.

[Rafael122]

So I was going back and forth with a Wiz fan on Twitter, exchanging trade ideas for Kuz. His goal was to get FVV to DC and not have 4 guys making $25 mil or more. Hear me out, this is what I proposed:

Sign and trade Kuzma to Detroit for Diallo, Noel, and Burks. Noel and Burks have club options, for the sake of this exercise, Noel/Burks agree to extend the deadline date. Currently it's set to 6/29, so let's say they will extend another week or so, whatever. Maybe Detroit throws in second round picks or something.

Sign and trade Fred Van Vleet at $25 million starting salary. Burks/Noel/Morris/protected 1st round pick [insert year here] and some 2nds from the Raptors. Raptors decline the options on Burks and Noel, so its essentially Morris and a protected 1st for Van Vleet.

PG - FVV/Wright
SG - Beal/Diallo/Davis
SF - Deni/Kispert
PF - Porzingis/Todd/Gill
C - Gafford/Carey

I think you go BPA in the draft, maybe a preference towards the frontcourt. I got Porzingis at $30 mil after signing an extension. Even with the 1st rounder, let's say at $5 million, we're about $10 million under the tax, give or take. Maybe they make a smaller move and trade Gill, Todd or Carey for some future 2nds just to have a little bit of breathing room. IDK, in free agency the goal would be to shore up the front court. I think Wright/Diallo/Davis/Kispert are all interchangeable and can play the 1-3 spots. Going heavy on a wing again, especially in free agency may not be the play. I was thinking someone like Dario Saric, someone that may cost like $5 to $6 million and can spot start. Can maybe play small ball 5.

[nate33]

So I was going back and forth with a Wiz fan on Twitter, exchanging trade ideas for Kuz. His goal was to get FVV to DC and not have 4 guys making $25 mil or more. Hear me out, this is what I proposed:

Sign and trade Kuzma to Detroit for Diallo, Noel, and Burks. Noel and Burks have club options, for the sake of this exercise, Noel/Burks agree to extend the deadline date. Currently it's set to 6/29, so let's say they will extend another week or so, whatever. Maybe Detroit throws in second round picks or something.

Sign and trade Fred Van Vleet at $25 million starting salary. Burks/Noel/Morris/protected 1st round pick [insert year here] and some 2nds from the Raptors. Raptors decline the options on Burks and Noel, so its essentially Morris and a protected 1st for Van Vleet.

PG - FVV/Wright
SG - Beal/Diallo/Davis
SF - Deni/Kispert
PF - Porzingis/Todd/Gill
C - Gafford/Carey

I think you go BPA in the draft, maybe a preference towards the frontcourt. I got Porzingis at $30 mil after signing an extension. Even with the 1st rounder, let's say at $5 million, we're about $10 million under the tax, give or take. Maybe they make a smaller move and trade Gill, Todd or Carey for some future 2nds just to have a little bit of breathing room. IDK, in free agency the goal would be to shore up the front court. I think Wright/Diallo/Davis/Kispert are all interchangeable and can play the 1-3 spots. Going heavy on a wing again, especially in free agency may not be the play. I was thinking someone like Dario Saric, someone that may cost like $5 to $6 million and can spot start. Can maybe play small ball 5.

Is VanVleet significantly better than Morris at this point? Why pay him $25M when you have Morris at $10M?

I'd rather have Morris + Kuzma at a total of $30M a year than VanVleet and Diallo.

[payitforward]

I'd certainly rather have Morris & whatever else I could get for Kuzma, i.e. not this deal, than VanVleet & Diallo.

Especially given how well the KP/Gaff starting lineup is working & the need to increase Deni's minutes & give Kispert some minutes both at 3 & at 2.....