LukaTheGOAT wrote:One way to measure supporting cast is by looking at AuPM/G.
Based on the slightly older AuPM/G, that incorporates season long on/off and the box-score, I think you can get an understanding of what guys are working with.
The stat goes back to 97. When calculating supporting cast, I want to mention that Cast = Relative AuPM value of the 2nd through the 8th-best player on a team, among players who logged at least 40 percent of team’s minutes. Value is relative to +0.75.
Per the stat:
"LeBron took the two worst supporting casts to the Finals during this stretch, the 2018 Cavs (AuPM of -3.6 PS Cast Strength) and the 2007 Cavs (-2.8 in PS Cast Strength) ...LeBron’s Cavs are the weakest supporting unit to even reach a conference final in this period." -Ben Taylor
Looking at the 06-09 Period, we can look at the overall cast strength during the RS for a bigger sample.
The Cavs in terms of RS Cast Strength
06: -1.4
07: -0.3
08: -2.6
09: +4.8
The Bulls in terms of RS Cast Strength
97: +8.3 (You didn't ask for 97, but I will share it because I think it highlights my point)
98: +8.6
Keeping in mind that a 0 is supposed to be a league average cast, one could argue that from at least 06-08, Lebron perhaps had below average help. I think the Cavs had good defensive personnel overall, however the offensive help was lacking, but how you weigh that is up to you. The Bulls arguably had better defensive personnel, then the Cavs, however that defensive personnel, had more offensive chops to go along with it.
The 98 Bulls had a relatively similar roster to the 97 team in overall team strength, however they were a year older and bit more beat up by injuries however. Nonetheless, the Bulls help eclipses the Cavs' helps by multiple standard deviations under this measure.
Some Caveats:
A. Box-score doesn't really account for defensive stuff. Notably the pre-09 cavs weren't significantly affected by Lebron's absence defensively, while the 2009/2010 cavs collapsed
B. Box-score isn't really going to be able to account for how various players influence each's other counting numbers. This is true with both defense(blocks/steals) and offense(ppg, apg, ect)
This is part of why it's good to look at how a team performs "without" a player. And here I think we get a different picture regarding the 09/10 cavs cast:
Colts wrote:From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV
Defense:
On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)
Obvious caveat here is that the sample is tiny. Luckily, we can extend this sample and...
n 21 games with a similar group of players, they played at an anemic 18-win pace (-8.9 SRS) before injuries ravaged their lineup.
For the season they finished at
19 wins and
-8.88 SRS. Notably a big chunk of this drop-off came on the defensive side(recall that the second best defender on those teams was Ben Wallace, who played 28 mpg before missing 30 games(the injury more or less ended his career as a useful player), before leaving in 2010. The 2011 Cavs were
7 points worse defensively, tracking with the 8-point drop from our teeny-tiny 14 game sample.
Lebron grades out as the
"impact king" post Russell because he combines top-tier offensive lift(reflected in top-tier box-stuff), with top-tier(for a non-big) defensive elevation. I've posted the holistics, but let's hone in on some of the granulars:
LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.
Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)
Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%
What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:
The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-
That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference.
I've seen people question Lebron's defense in the ensuing postseason(the cavs remain elite overall, but their d-rating tanks vs red-hot orlando shooting), but er...
LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):
Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages:
-7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS%

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)
+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]
Will add that via Blocked's film-tracking Lebron also contested/deterred Dwight in the paint 22 times, lagging a bit behind what Pippen did vs Ewing in 1994(Grant was oddly positioned all series).
Honestly, comparing this to 97/98 is wild, when, at least by evidence beyond non-predictive box-aggregates, the 09/10 Cavs don't really even stack up to the
1984 Bulls. Yeah those bulls were bad on offense, but they were a functional defense and overall were significantly better overall(28-wins, -4.68 SRS).
The 97/98 Bulls were fine without Jordan from what we have, and while Rodman and Pippen may have been diminished from 94-96(at least in the regular season), we should keep in mind what was diminished in the first place:
OhayoKD wrote:MavsDirk41 wrote:Taj FTW wrote:
The 1995 Bulls played at a 53-win pace(per srs which is more predictive and adjusts for opponent quality) without their best and third best player? The 1994 Bulls, at full strength(pippen and grant missed time) played like a 58-win team and elevated signficantly in the playoffs(+5 to +8).
I realize the cavs doing so well with seemingly limited support may not fit so neatly into some of our priors, but I imagine at least some of the performance is simply a product of Lebron being a much better defender.