Wiz-Board Rules, Links, Traditions and HOF Posts Thread

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

particle physics
decision matrices w linear algebra and constraints
brainstorming
organizational development

F all of that

Just give Beal and inanely stupid super max based on TEDdy billions

OK

I'm just a fan

[AFM]

apologies:


TEDS GREEK ASS
WIDER THAN THE MORNING SKY!!!

THEY SAY IT NEVER COME
WE KNEW IT WAS A LIE!!!


ALL GREEKS DIE NOW WIZ FANS ALL SUCCUMB
TIME TO KISS YOUR FANDOM GOOFBYE
THE END HAS JUST BEGUN

[payitforward]

The trouble between Greeks & Persians is millenia-long after all...!

[montestewart]

apologies:


TEDS GREEK ASS
WIDER THAN THE MORNING SKY!!!

THEY SAY IT NEVER COME
WE KNEW IT WAS A LIE!!!


ALL GREEKS DIE NOW WIZ FANS ALL SUCCUMB
TIME TO KISS YOUR FANDOM GOOFBYE
THE END HAS JUST BEGUN

My new favorite air guitar song

[AFM]

The trouble between Greeks & Persians is millenia-long after all...!

You arent wrong.
My grandmother had zero reservations about letting the museum guides in Athens know how we killed all of them. She's like 95 and had a huge smile on her face. I'm a little afraid

[payitforward]

The trouble between Greeks & Persians is millenia-long after all...!

You arent wrong.
My grandmother had zero reservations about letting the museum guides in Athens know how we killed all of them. She's like 95 and had a huge smile on her face. I'm a little afraid

Throw the Turks in there & it really gets explosive!

[payitforward]

stunt, booth, minnow, splash, button]

[payitforward]

How'd that get in there...? That's the daily Jumble for today... sorry!

[montestewart]

How'd that get in there...? That's the daily Jumble for today... sorry!

Looks like a response to a cognitive test question

[doclinkin]

stunt, booth, minnow, splash, button, jumble

Okay now write a sestina out of it.

[AFM]

When he starts posting his login and password, it'll be time to be worried

[doclinkin]

Putting this here for a minute so I don't lose track of it. I changed the search to the Top 10th guy at each slot, edited in the names of the top players at that draft pick, to indicate your rough likelihood of landing a HOF guy at that spot.

I figured out how to bang BRef/Stathead into giving me the historical stats by draft pick. If you are a subscriber to stathead.com (ie total dork) you can do it this way:

--Basketball-reference.com: NBA Draft historical data, any year.
--Next to the player's name at any given draft slot, click the hypertext link of the 'Pk' column.
--It will open in stathead.com ranked by Win Shares. (If you're not already signed in it will give you only the first few players).

(If you really want to be a dork about it you can 'Edit the Search Criteria' to sort by descending VORP instead of Win Shares. I didn't do that)


Without going into a full rundown of teams, you can get a sense of the depth of the picks by looking at say the 10th best player picked at any given pick position. Also, taking a look at how deep the high end is, picking an arbitrary number of 100 win shares which tends to indicate a Hall of Fame player. (Melo was the only one that hit this threshold who had not yet made it, until he was elected last month).

10th best player at draft position by Career Win Score. (And all players with Win Score 100 or higher at that draft position).

Tenth best #1 overall pick.
1. Walt Bellamy 130.0 -- 16 players with career Win Shares of 100 or higher.
(Allen Iverson just missing the cut at 99.0)

Tenth best players of the top 5 draft slots.
2. Tyson Chandler 102.1 -- 10 players WS 100+ (Alonzo Mourning missing the cut at 89.7)
3. Paul Arizin 108.8 -- 11 players WS 100+ (Grant Hill misses with 99.9)
4. Bob Cousy 91.1 -- 8 players WS 100+ (Jamison and Glen Rice fall short at ~ 88)
5. Sidney Moncrief 90.3 -- 8 players WS 100+ (Kevin Love outside at 94.9)

Top 10 slots, 10th best players.
6. Fred Brown 63.2 -- 3 players WS 100+ (Bird, Dantley, Dame Lillard)
7. Mike Gminski 55.9 -- (only Stef Curry)
8. George Yardley 58.5 -- 4 players WS 100+ (Robert Parish, Sikma, Schrempf, Andre Miller)
9. Dale Ellis 84.7 -- 6 players WS 100+ (Dirk, Havlicek, Matrix, DeRozan, Otis Thorpe, Iggy)
10. Willis Reed 74.9 -- 4 players WS 100+ (Pierce, Ho Grant, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones)

The next 5. Top half of the first round.
11. JJ Redick 63.7 -- (Reggie Miller WS 174.4)
12. Jim Paxson 53.7 -- ( Dr. J. WS 106.2)
13. Danny Schayes 48.8 -- 2 players (Karl Malone. Kobe)
14. K.C. Jones 38.6 -- 3 players (Drexler, 2 guys who played in the 60's)
15. Dell Curry 41.5 -- 3 players (Nash, Giannis, Kawhi)

2nd half of the 1st round, 10th best at each.
16. Brevin Knight 32.6 -- (only John Stockton)
17. Rasho Nesterović 39.9 -- (none)
18. Eric Bledsoe 46.1 -- (none)
19. Jamaal Magloire 27.7 -- (none)
20. Delon Wright 28.9 -- (only Larry Nance)
21. Morris Peterson 35.7 -- (none)
22. Chris Mills 37.7 -- (none)
23. Bobby Jackson 31.4 -- (only Alex English)
24. Arvydas Sabonis 47.3 -- (Kyle Lowry, Terry Porter)
25. Bob Weiss 31.2 -- (None)
26. Payton Pritchard 20.9 -- (none, Vlade Divac misses the cut at 96.4)
27. Kendrick Perkins 27.9 -- (only Rudy Gobert)
28. Ian Mahinmi 26.1 -- (only Tony Parker)
29. Nazr Mohammed 34.3 -- (none)
30. Ollie Johnson 5.0 -- (only Jimmy Butler)

Pretty steady decline in depth when you look at the top 10 players at any draft slot. The career numbers of the 10th pick is generally worse than the players above them. 18 & 24 are a blip, deeper in playably good guys. But the HOF players follow the trend. Yes a few slip through the cracks but the tiers seem to hold solid:

#1 overall is deep in hall of famers.
Top 5 regularly pumps out more than a handful of career winners.
Top 10 has a few at each draft slot.
The rest of the top half of the first round may produce one or two at each spot over time.
The 2nd half of the first round tails off with sporadic top end players.

The takeaway:

Scouting works. The professionals who have risen to the top of the sport often know what they are doing.
The best players are rarely surprises. If you are picking at the top of the draft it is easier to be smart. Easier to be lucky. Easier to make the right pick. Doesn't mean it is impossible lower down, just that the better picks have generally been selected earlier and are not on the board by then.

[AFM]

This guy just put his own post in the HOF thread.

[doclinkin]

This guy just put his own post in the HOF thread.

Yep. I do that. Check page one. My idea, my gift to the masses. I dub myself the People’s Moderator. I love me some me.

[doclinkin]

I'd also suggest we let this thread also serve as a Hall of Fame, thread for instant classic posts. How else to understand what we value in the 'culture' of this board. Que no?

See me?

[doclinkin]

Again. Putting this here since otherwise I know I’ll drive myself mad searching for it. Draft trade by tiers:

There is a steep decline in star-caliber talent as you go from 1 on down through the end of the lottery. In the back half of the draft, the slope of that line flattens considerably, so trading down from say #18 to get two picks in the late 20's might make sense. But on a team like ours in need of star-caliber talent, it would be insane to trade down out of the lottery.

Right. Why I broke it into tiers. Where trades within those tiers may be okay. But otherwise history suggests it’s not worth it.

Top pick.
1 overall. (Or 1-3 in a year with no standout consensus top pick).

Top 5.
2-5. (a Trae Young for Luka type deal). Teams regularly pick all stars in this range.

Top 10.
6-10. Here you are likely to find stars in players who produce good stats but are undersized or young. Late bloomers. Or foreign. Or guards that do produce.

There’s a bias towards tall players at the top of the draft. Star guards get picked later than bigs. It’s harder to find tall human beings, so teams with need will pick one over a box score hero guard who is undersized.

Top half.
11-15. Same with fewer proven guards. Here is where you get a few players who are development superstars. Those who improve their game with focus and effort. Kawhi couldn’t shoot. Giannis was long and athletic but raw as sushi. Foreign players are tougher to measure against local competition. Young hypertalents are hard to judge.

Rest of the first round. Top of 2nd.
16-30’s.
Solid players show up regularly into the 30’s. There are fewer and fewer standout talents in this tier. But upperclassmen who produce often translate to reliable players. Trust box score stats in this range. Reach for fewer surprises unless there’s a reason they’re overlooked.

It’s a rough guideline but by breakdown of historical data of who’s available at these tiers it makes sense to me if you can trade down within tiers or trade up to get to the next grouping.

And as always teams undervalue the future. So if you can anticipate it right you get the best value by trading for the future picks from a win-now organization.

[nate33]

This is data I posted a while ago with the odds of obtaining an All-NBA player with each pick in the draft (with moving 3-pick and 5-pick averages)

Code: Select all

Pick   Odds   M-Avg 3   M-Avg 5
#1   38.67%      
#2   20.00%   28.45%   
#3   26.67%   20.38%   24.44%
#4   14.47%   21.17%   18.00%
#5   22.37%   14.44%   15.97%
#6    6.49%   12.91%   13.07%
#7    9.86%    9.50%   12.58%
#8   12.16%   11.34%   10.57%
#9   12.00%   12.16%   11.06%
#10  12.33%   11.10%   10.23%
#11   8.96%    9.00%    9.19%
#12   5.71%    7.20%    7.93%
#13   6.94%    6.12%    6.64%
#14   5.71%    6.18%    5.71%
#15   5.88%    5.29%    5.74%
#16   4.29%    5.35%    4.65%
#17   5.88%    3.88%    4.40%
#18   1.47%    3.94%    3.54%
#19   4.48%    2.50%    3.00%
#20   1.56%    2.55%    2.81%
#21   1.61%    2.70%    3.19%
#22   4.92%    3.31%    2.90%
#23   3.39%    3.78%    2.91%
#24   3.03%    2.68%    2.59%
#25   1.61%    1.55%    2.92%
#26   0.00%    2.72%    2.92%
#27   6.56%    3.32%    3.03%
#28   3.39%    4.51%    4.08%
#29   3.57%    5.79%   
#30   6.90%

Picks 27-30 have a really odd history of significantly outperforming picks 18-26. I'm not sure if that's just a fluke, or if it's that the really good teams who pick late pick better, or maybe young players who join good teams get developed better. All that said, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[doclinkin]

Thanks nate I was looking for that again.

[doclinkin]

I live a charmed life. I'm happy. I've been happily married for 30 years. I have 3 wonderful, brilliant kids who are doing well at college. I get along with my extended family and in-laws. I'm self-employed, with no boss, making more money than I need. I have no debt. I'm extremely healthy, and fit enough to play basketball at age 53.

I believe God wants me to be humbled in some way to achieve some level of Karmic balance. So God has decided that the one and only professional sports team that I love will never be successful. The Wizards will find a way to be bad for as long as I live. It is the cross I must bear.

All things considered, I guess I can't complain. It's a fair tradeoff. But I'm sorry for the rest of you Wizards fans who have suffered for these last 47 years. Hang in there. I probably have about 40 years to go. After that, the curse will be lifted and the Wizards will be free to win again.

From the Wizards Future thread.

[montestewart]

There are alot of problems with this video but also remove for improvement.





Right knee is caving in due to excessive knee ligament bend because he can't arch is lower back fluidity from three point range.

Knees in front on his toes, poor shoes, kobe lowes, and can't protect knees from contact during drive.


Rising into shot with his elbow well below his chin, no arch in back from 3 point line. Pay attention to lebron James shot form. Remember, AJ is pretty much an exact duplica of Lebron James.

HIs hand should be meeting the ball before it gets into his body and his elbow should already be pointing at rim even before he catches the ball

This gather time would be unnecessary if he was able to arch his back before ever catching the ball with his feet close together. His hands should be large enough to catch the ball with one hand and one grip it to the other right hand that is already high elbow. instead we see his elbow pointing directly into the ground. Lack of fluidness in his lower back and knee ligament damage built up in his right knee from poor landing mechanics. Also inabilty to control his left hip and adjust his feet quickly because his back is locked and unable to arch. Major physical therapy is needed here. But that's why owner makes millions in profit adn GM gets paid handsomely. To see and fix these problem because they stop them before they blossom into serious injuries.


He rarely lands backward after driving to rim, shortening his knee life. Lebron was able to master this landing pattern early in career which is why he lasted so long. Look at how AJ land forward facing after a layup versus how lebron twist his hip on the shot attempts and lands backwards, saving his knees.
Pay attention how AJ lands forward after layup instead of twisting his hips mid air and landing backwards and not immediately absorbing stopping force using his knees like AJ does.




now watch how lebron lands backwards after layoup, preserving his knees for 2 decades using strategy.



These are the topics pretend GMs should talk about with their generational talents!

The final effect is that AJ already has serious wear on his right knee. In the picture you can see that AJ is unable to quickly adjust his right knee mid bounce and it only gets worse if he keeps repeating what he is doing. It is up to Lebron's Trainers to impart wisdom Lebron has learned over 3 decades to save AJ's knees.


Lebron 12 elites allow for nearly 260 lbs of explosion of one foot. Unbelievable of force required. Kobe Low are not build for this type of power. This is what AJ needs.
TEd and General Manager should insist on AJ wearing lebron elites 12 and provide him a bonus because it increases team value by extending AJ's career for an extra decade. Without Lebron 12 elites, AJ will have a shorten career like John Wall and serious revenue loss for organization because of super short career.
Wihtout Elite shoes to handle force that AJ bring each night, his knees will be gone in no time. He is too young to understand this but we do. In fact I was posting on this board when he was still inside his mother's uterus as an egg back in 2001. But this is what FBA ..Foundation Black American culture does, we share without expecting anything back and we do it for progression of humanity...in this case basketball. I get no profits from spending this time sharing, i just know it leads to millions of people enjoying a supreme talent for same time Lebron has played ball.
Lebron elite 12's are the answer for AJ. not regular lebron's 12's because they don't provide the lateral support for allen iverson lateral dribble movement. Elite Lebron 12s are lebron's shoes in his prime. Get them on Aj's feet please.
You are doing the next generation of basketball players a huge service by keeping their icon from injuring himself before it is too late.

This is the shoe Wizards Management must promote for player health. Even if you have to go online and get a used version from back in 2016. These shoes give a driving...superstar a 20 year career.

From Welcome to the District, Anicet Dybantsa Jr.