2022-23 Regular Season

[ijspeelman]

Chris Fedor reporting Allen could be back this upcoming week.

Based on initial reporting, I am surprised he hasn't come back yet

[JujitsuFlip]

Chris Fedor reporting Allen could be back this upcoming week.

Based on initial reporting, I am surprised he hasn't come back yet

Shoot, given his finger situation last season, I'm surprised he's already trying to return.

[JonFromVA]

Chris Fedor reporting Allen could be back this upcoming week.

Based on initial reporting, I am surprised he hasn't come back yet

Shoot, given his finger situation last season, I'm surprised he's already trying to return.

Nothing was broken, he's just been dealing with swelling around his eye probably affecting his vision.

These finger injuries are pretty annoying, but at least Donovan hasn't re-tweaked his groin injury ... but still plenty of time for that.

I wonder what the Cavs longest 100% available roster stretch has been over the last few years?

At least one game I think ...

[toooskies]

Read on Twitter

[mcfly1204]

Read on Twitter

No to state the obvious, but is that not typically the case with bigger wings who lack talent? If they can move up a weight class, and reasonable defend the position, they typically perform better?

[ijspeelman]

Read on Twitter

No to state the obvious, but is that not typically the case with bigger wings who lack talent? If they can move up a weight class, and reasonable defend the position, they typically perform better?

That’s probably a true hypothesis, but +14 is insanely good especially for a bench guy.

[toooskies]

Read on Twitter

No to state the obvious, but is that not typically the case with bigger wings who lack talent? If they can move up a weight class, and reasonable defend the position, they typically perform better?

That’s probably a true hypothesis, but +14 is insanely good especially for a bench guy.

Yep. I think a bunch of things factor in here:
- Lamar is playing some of his best basketball
- He's legitimately better at the 4
- His minutes at the 3 were often with Mobley and Allen in the starting lineup, and spacing was awful
- We're in a somewhat easy stretch of games lately where we've run up some big numbers on bad teams

I don't expect season-long production at that level from him, but I do believe he's better than a replacement-level player out there at the 4.

[El Hespiritu]

I summarize it as

La Mar Is An All-Around Player

He will probably never be credited as a PG because he is barely allowed to cross midfield with the ball when there is no pressure and JB would probably got a heartache if he tried to run some p'n'r but Kevin Garnett often said

If you can play NBA Defense, you can play NBA Games

I'd expand it to

If you can Defend an NBA position, you can Play that NBA position

La Mar can irrefutably guard 5 positions at court .
So he can play 5 positions at court.

Depending on our own lineups and opponent's lineups, La Mar could be more meaningful about D playing Big, Forward or even Guard.

This skill gives JB a lot of tactical options.

These PF flashy stats are real but at the same time are random and temporary... last season he got some streak of games with spectacular +/- playing basically (non)Shooting Guard, for instance.

About his Offense, I'll talk another day if you want.
He's still young and with acres of room to improve.

[JonFromVA]

The +1.8 net rating is nothing to sneeze at for a player off the bench, it's just not impressive for this team.

Lamar certainly looks more competent guarding bigger players than wings and I'd like to see JBB choosing between Isaac and Lamar based on what type of player we need to defend; but when we're switching on D we leave that decision to the opponent.

Perhaps that's where the temptation to play both Isaac and Lamar at the same time comes from?

[JonFromVA]

Fun fact: We've only had 18 players on our roster this season - we haven't had so few since '15/'16 when you guys know what happened.

[ijspeelman]

I've been thinking more about shooting luck lately and what Jon said last time. I wanted to account for corner shots given up.

There is not a non-manual way to find out how many of the corner shots were wide open, but I think I'm committing myself today to watching nearly all 604 of them to find out what % were wide open.

[toooskies]

I've been thinking more about shooting luck lately and what Jon said last time. I wanted to account for corner shots given up.

There is not a non-manual way to find out how many of the corner shots were wide open, but I think I'm committing myself today to watching nearly all 604 of them to find out what % were wide open.

I think one of the ChaseDown podcasters did this with the attempts with the Core Four, pitting Okoro against LeVert. The conclusion was that the LeVert group was more likely to have players guarding their "natural" matchup, which led to us being closer to the contest in the corner; while the Okoro groups often had Okoro on-ball and a short guard shading towards the key, which often left the corner wide open.

[JonFromVA]

I've been thinking more about shooting luck lately and what Jon said last time. I wanted to account for corner shots given up.

There is not a non-manual way to find out how many of the corner shots were wide open, but I think I'm committing myself today to watching nearly all 604 of them to find out what % were wide open.

I think one of the ChaseDown podcasters did this with the attempts with the Core Four, pitting Okoro against LeVert. The conclusion was that the LeVert group was more likely to have players guarding their "natural" matchup, which led to us being closer to the contest in the corner; while the Okoro groups often had Okoro on-ball and a short guard shading towards the key, which often left the corner wide open.

Yep, we use Okoro to deal with a troublesome PG or SG which bumps either Garland or Mitchell to defending the SF or PF. They may end up helping in the paint and not get out to defend a corner 3, or they may simply lack the length to make much of a contest against a taller player.

That was the line of thinking, and while technically the theory should be tested to see how much it actually can explain, I like the thought process of trying to explain it rather than call it luck; because our options to fix luck are far more limited.

That being said, there certainly is a lot of variation in the numbers lj compiled.

I still feel selection may play a big role. For instance, take a look at Isaac's corner shooting %'s:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Okoro&DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=1&sort=Corner%203%20FGM

He's 32.7% on 49 attempts from the left corner, and 38.5% on 96 attempts from the right corner.

Does he shoot better from the right corner? You betcha.

Does he favor shooting from the right corner? Yep.

So, what should a smart defense do?

Pretty much encourage him to shoot a jumper anywhere except the right corner 3pt.

The fact Isaac leads the league in right corner 3pt attempts is strongly suggesting selection is playing a big part in that outcome. It may not be ideal to give Isaac that shot, but it's better than letting Garland or Mitchell create something else.

[toooskies]

I've been thinking more about shooting luck lately and what Jon said last time. I wanted to account for corner shots given up.

There is not a non-manual way to find out how many of the corner shots were wide open, but I think I'm committing myself today to watching nearly all 604 of them to find out what % were wide open.

I think one of the ChaseDown podcasters did this with the attempts with the Core Four, pitting Okoro against LeVert. The conclusion was that the LeVert group was more likely to have players guarding their "natural" matchup, which led to us being closer to the contest in the corner; while the Okoro groups often had Okoro on-ball and a short guard shading towards the key, which often left the corner wide open.

Yep, we use Okoro to deal with a troublesome PG or SG which bumps either Garland or Mitchell to defending the SF or PF. They may end up helping in the paint and not get out to defend a corner 3, or they may simply lack the length to make much of a contest against a taller player.

That was the line of thinking, and while technically the theory should be tested to see how much it actually can explain, I like the thought process of trying to explain it rather than call it luck; because our options to fix luck are far more limited.

That being said, there certainly is a lot of variation in the numbers lj compiled.

I still feel selection may play a big role. For instance, take a look at Isaac's corner shooting %'s:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Okoro&DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=1&sort=Corner%203%20FGM

He's 32.7% on 49 attempts from the left corner, and 38.5% on 96 attempts from the right corner.

Does he shoot better from the right corner? You betcha.

Does he favor shooting from the right corner? Yep.

So, what should a smart defense do?

Pretty much encourage him to shoot a jumper anywhere except the right corner 3pt.

The fact Isaac leads the league in right corner 3pt attempts is strongly suggesting selection is playing a big part in that outcome. It may not be ideal to give Isaac that shot, but it's better than letting Garland or Mitchell create something else.

Any Okoro 3-point shooting sample is going to be heavily skewed by his 0-fer streak to begin the season, I'd definitely want to exclude that if I were to consider where he's good at shooting from a spot.

[ijspeelman]

I think one of the ChaseDown podcasters did this with the attempts with the Core Four, pitting Okoro against LeVert. The conclusion was that the LeVert group was more likely to have players guarding their "natural" matchup, which led to us being closer to the contest in the corner; while the Okoro groups often had Okoro on-ball and a short guard shading towards the key, which often left the corner wide open.

Yep, we use Okoro to deal with a troublesome PG or SG which bumps either Garland or Mitchell to defending the SF or PF. They may end up helping in the paint and not get out to defend a corner 3, or they may simply lack the length to make much of a contest against a taller player.

That was the line of thinking, and while technically the theory should be tested to see how much it actually can explain, I like the thought process of trying to explain it rather than call it luck; because our options to fix luck are far more limited.

That being said, there certainly is a lot of variation in the numbers lj compiled.

I still feel selection may play a big role. For instance, take a look at Isaac's corner shooting %'s:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Okoro&DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=1&sort=Corner%203%20FGM

He's 32.7% on 49 attempts from the left corner, and 38.5% on 96 attempts from the right corner.

Does he shoot better from the right corner? You betcha.

Does he favor shooting from the right corner? Yep.

So, what should a smart defense do?

Pretty much encourage him to shoot a jumper anywhere except the right corner 3pt.

The fact Isaac leads the league in right corner 3pt attempts is strongly suggesting selection is playing a big part in that outcome. It may not be ideal to give Isaac that shot, but it's better than letting Garland or Mitchell create something else.

Any Okoro 3-point shooting sample is going to be heavily skewed by his 0-fer streak to begin the season, I'd definitely want to exclude that if I were to consider where he's good at shooting from a spot.

The 0-fer is still part of the sample as much as Love's and Wade's shooting woes are apart of their larger samples. The real test is to pull data from multiple seasons

[JonFromVA]

Yep, we use Okoro to deal with a troublesome PG or SG which bumps either Garland or Mitchell to defending the SF or PF. They may end up helping in the paint and not get out to defend a corner 3, or they may simply lack the length to make much of a contest against a taller player.

That was the line of thinking, and while technically the theory should be tested to see how much it actually can explain, I like the thought process of trying to explain it rather than call it luck; because our options to fix luck are far more limited.

That being said, there certainly is a lot of variation in the numbers lj compiled.

I still feel selection may play a big role. For instance, take a look at Isaac's corner shooting %'s:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Okoro&DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=1&sort=Corner%203%20FGM

He's 32.7% on 49 attempts from the left corner, and 38.5% on 96 attempts from the right corner.

Does he shoot better from the right corner? You betcha.

Does he favor shooting from the right corner? Yep.

So, what should a smart defense do?

Pretty much encourage him to shoot a jumper anywhere except the right corner 3pt.

The fact Isaac leads the league in right corner 3pt attempts is strongly suggesting selection is playing a big part in that outcome. It may not be ideal to give Isaac that shot, but it's better than letting Garland or Mitchell create something else.

Any Okoro 3-point shooting sample is going to be heavily skewed by his 0-fer streak to begin the season, I'd definitely want to exclude that if I were to consider where he's good at shooting from a spot.

The 0-fer is still part of the sample as much as Love's and Wade's shooting woes are apart of their larger samples. The real test is to pull data from multiple seasons

An exception would be if he's been tinkering with his shot, and then even a multi-year look won't help cleanup the data.

And supposedly he (and the team) have been tinkering for a while.

[ijspeelman]

Shout out to Caris btw. His last 10 games have been pretty incredible on both ends and a lot of it seems replicable. Though I will admit the shooting is not gonna stick. He is shooting almost 47% from three in the last 10 and he will fall back to Earth eventually.

[toooskies]

Shout out to Caris btw. His last 10 games have been pretty incredible on both ends and a lot of it seems replicable. Though I will admit the shooting is not gonna stick. He is shooting almost 47% from three in the last 10 and he will fall back to Earth eventually.

Another shout out to Caris for playing in the most games for him since 2017-18. And his true shooting percentage on the year is the highest since his rookie season.

I like to remember that Caris was, once, a very good 3-point shooter-- back in college. 44.6% in his senior season and above 40% in his sophomore and junior seasons. He's currently shooting the same percentage from 3 as Donovan Mitchell and his 38% on the year may not be a fluke when he's guarded by bench guys and not the other team's top defenders.

Caris's career has been littered with team changes and injuries that may have continuously thrown off his rhythm-- not that we can expect him to necessarily be consistently healthy in the future-- but an upper 30s percentage might be closer to his true capability.

OTOH he is a risk to sign long-term, particularly if we're seeing/going to pay for the best possible version of him and the worse versions have a reasonably high likelihood of occurring.

[JonFromVA]

Shout out to Caris btw. His last 10 games have been pretty incredible on both ends and a lot of it seems replicable. Though I will admit the shooting is not gonna stick. He is shooting almost 47% from three in the last 10 and he will fall back to Earth eventually.

Another shout out to Caris for playing in the most games for him since 2017-18. And his true shooting percentage on the year is the highest since his rookie season.

I like to remember that Caris was, once, a very good 3-point shooter-- back in college. 44.6% in his senior season and above 40% in his sophomore and junior seasons. He's currently shooting the same percentage from 3 as Donovan Mitchell and his 38% on the year may not be a fluke when he's guarded by bench guys and not the other team's top defenders.

Caris's career has been littered with team changes and injuries that may have continuously thrown off his rhythm-- not that we can expect him to necessarily be consistently healthy in the future-- but an upper 30s percentage might be closer to his true capability.

OTOH he is a risk to sign long-term, particularly if we're seeing/going to pay for the best possible version of him and the worse versions have a reasonably high likelihood of occurring.

Caris will be 29 in December, so whoever signs him will be getting the later part of his peak physical+mental prime years. I could even see us offering him a 4 year deal if it will keep the yearly salaries a bit more reasonable, but I'm assuming we won't pay anything too ridiculous to keep him.

fwiw, Dinwiddie got 3/$62M from the Wizards in a S&T in 2021.

[JujitsuFlip]

If Cavs win 2 of their final 7 games they clinch a playoff berth for the first time without LeBron in 25 years and snap their playoff drought of 5 years.

In order to guarantee home court advantage in the first round, the Cavs have to win 5 of their final 7 games.