Anatomy of a Disaster

[eyriq]

It's part of the reason why when people ask if I want to trade a draft pick I say.....No.

The hindsight is 20/20 here is that I have no idea why we went with Fournier over Dipo. Dipo seems to have a potential "it" factory that Fournier at best had Jeff Hornecek vibes. Where as Dipo had more of a Dwayne Wade vibe and similar to Wade after a certain age their body just fell apart.

Edit : This trade was essentially when I checked out from the team, and only took updates from my old man up until he died before stopping watching altogether until Paolo.

Dude, same. I totally lost interest. I had personal matters to distract me as well but they made it so easy to tune out.

[Residual-Heat]

it was a horrible trade but they probably couldnt have turned oladipo, sabonis to PG. he wouldnt have wanted to be traded to Orlando.

[dsg2021]

The way Tobias blew up in Orlando and then the FO and Coaching staff didn’t give him room to breathe and see how far he could go in like 40 more games was my very first sign of an implosion and systematic failure in the FO.

Also, after that but before the Ibaka trade they were also clearly imploding the team by retaining Elfrid Payton for way too long. On his 3rd or 4th season with ORL when Ibaka came on board.

He had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign but every team figured him out in the off-season and he was never the same disruptive, attacking player ever again. A lot of advanced stats would have said he was progressing well, but if you had more classic, traditional scouts on the team they would have said the complete opposite and stopped that PG spot.

As amazing as pre-injury Oladipo was, he wasn’t a smooth operator on offense anytime anywhere. So we have no legit go-to player and we go out and reduce the talent across the team for a dream 4/5 pairing. Except, the dream 4 is already 2 seasons past their prime and everything else I just mentioned - the team lost talent, didn’t have a go-to guy, and didn’t have any lead PG who would help at all.


I’m very glad that with Markelle now the story on the advanced stats paper actually matches with what I see as real improvement on the floor. But at the same time, I hope people can see why my last 5 posts here have been about letting Banchero (and Wagner) point forward much more moving forward. I’m looking for that go-to piece and smooth operator who can make anything anytime. Paolo as the point? What if he dribbles you down to the post with his height? What if he uses his heavy frame and barrels into the paint where no one has the strength to guard him and only foul him? What if he has PnR’s and set plays for days to find anything from dishes to mid range and 3 range jumpers. Playoff defense suffocates ORL in round 2? Doesn’t matter because Paolo with the unguardable middies and drives ALSO runs their plays almost 24/7. Which way is he gonna go with the possession?

You play off your strengths first like having two point forwards (not disimilar to Turk and Lew) and go from there. If we’re not going to do that, then what are we doing?

[fendilim]

No way we would have done Oladipo for Paul George trade, Imo.

Remnants of a superstar wanting to leave a small city…

[VFX]

I’m very glad that with Markelle now the story on the advanced stats paper actually matches with what I see as real improvement on the floor. But at the same time, I hope people can see why my last 5 posts here have been about letting Banchero (and Wagner) point forward much more moving forward. I’m looking for that go-to piece and smooth operator who can make anything anytime. Paolo as the point? What if he dribbles you down to the post with his height? What if he uses his heavy frame and barrels into the paint where no one has the strength to guard him and only foul him? What if he has PnR’s and set plays for days to find anything from dishes to mid range and 3 range jumpers. Playoff defense suffocates ORL in round 2? Doesn’t matter because Paolo with the unguardable middies and drives ALSO runs their plays almost 24/7. Which way is he gonna go with the possession?

You play off your strengths first like having two point forwards (not disimilar to Turk and Lew) and go from there. If we’re not going to do that, then what are we doing?

I don't want to make this the 30th thread on this forum talking about Markelle Fultz...
However, you are correct about playing to your strengths based upon the roster construction.

Franz and Paolo are special players as potential playmakers. The rest of the roster takes that away from them, or doesn't strengthen their current weaknesses, then the FO isn't doing their job.

I'm not entirely sure why people can't grasp looking at these previous decisions as learning lessons when it comes to roster construction.

The 2015 and 2016 rosters were so incredibly flawed from a skill set perspective that it is embarrassing they were even rolled out. I could say the same for the current roster IF changes aren't made this offseason. Gary Harris can't be the only guy in the starting lineup that draws defenses from 3. There is a reason why Orlando always has a bottom 5 offense.

Here are the ratings by season.

2014 - 2015 - #27
2015 - 2016 - #22
2016 - 2017 - #28
2017 - 2018 - #25
2018 - 2019 - #22
2019 - 2020 - #23
2020 - 2021 - #29
2021 - 2022 - #29
2022 - 2023 - #26

So in nearly a decade the Magic have had a bottom 5-10 offensive rating and people are still OK with drafting, trading for, and retaining players that need to learn how to shoot a basketball.

[drsd]

Ibaka had only one year left of his contract when the deal was made, which made the whole thing doomed from the start. If he had done great here, he still would have most likely walked in the summer.

Financially Orlando was not able to resign both Fournier and Oladipo. At the time there was speculation that Orlando choose to retain Fournier as he would be easier to resign. That proved to be true.

Back then: many of us were more frustrated with Tobias Harris and then Aaron Gordon. Neither of the improved their games to fit the rest of the roster. Add that to a horrible hair cut that wrecked Payton, there was no hope for Orlando.

Maybe trading for Ibaka let the Magic get bad faster, leading to this more effective rebuild.

[drsd]

So in nearly a decade the Magic have had a bottom 5-10 offensive rating and people are still OK with drafting, trading for, and retaining players that need to learn how to shoot a basketball.

I was super high on Jabari Smith Jr. But as soon as Banchero was selected, I realised the above. Orlando needs to score more, more than it needs defense.

Now Orlando has a starting SG that scores 8.3 ppg; and a PG playing backup SG minutes at 9.9 ppg. These stats are not ok for a position that literally has "shooting" in its title.

2021: high scoring SG at 11.1 ppg


Ever since Fournier left, there is simply no consistent guard scoring.

..

[Skin]

When you look at that 2015 roster, you realize Hennigan was really doing fine and then in 3 moves basically lost his mind and blew it up.

2015 roster
G: Payton, Watson
G: Oladipo, Fournier
F: Harris, Hezonja
F: Gordon, Frye
C: Vucevic, Dedmon

Move 1: Tobias Harris for two expiring contracts (Jennings, Ilyasova)

Move 2: Oladipo and 11th pick for Ibaka

Move 3: Using cap space created from the Harris trade and from the 2016 cap explosion to sign Biyombo, Augustin and Green.

So in less then one year the Magic went from a very promising young rotation to this…

2016 roster
G: Payton, Augustin
G: Fournier, Watson
F: Gordon, Hezonja
F: Ibaka, Green
C: Vucevic, Biyombo

Much older and so much worse.

And Skiles, the coach that Hennigan was attempting to appeal to, ended up quitting anyway!

Henny was on the right track until Alex Martins said, "Win Now", "We're firing your coach and putting in mine", and "if you don't win, you're gone". At that point Henny said F this and blew out future cap to smitherines.

[Audi]

When you look at that 2015 roster, you realize Hennigan was really doing fine and then in 3 moves basically lost his mind and blew it up.

2015 roster
G: Payton, Watson
G: Oladipo, Fournier
F: Harris, Hezonja
F: Gordon, Frye
C: Vucevic, Dedmon

Move 1: Tobias Harris for two expiring contracts (Jennings, Ilyasova)

Move 2: Oladipo and 11th pick for Ibaka

Move 3: Using cap space created from the Harris trade and from the 2016 cap explosion to sign Biyombo, Augustin and Green.

So in less then one year the Magic went from a very promising young rotation to this…

2016 roster
G: Payton, Augustin
G: Fournier, Watson
F: Gordon, Hezonja
F: Ibaka, Green
C: Vucevic, Biyombo

Much older and so much worse.

And Skiles, the coach that Hennigan was attempting to appeal to, ended up quitting anyway!

What’s funny about both of these rosters (2015 & 2016) is something that haunts this current organization.

There was no outside shooting in either year and it wasn’t addressed with any of the moves he made. He went bigger instead of following where the league was trending. Sound familiar?

This organization has a serious problem with rolling out lineups that don’t work in theory or practice. Nothing has changed.

Ibaka was having the best distance shooting season of his career, just shy of 40% from distance on 4 3pa (pretty good volume for a big at the time) when he was brought on, so I don't think they weren't addressing *some* of that. I think the primary hope was a twin towers defensive with he and Biyombo (another terrible contract) so maybe the shooting was just an added bonus and didn't weigh on the decision at all.

[VFX]

When you look at that 2015 roster, you realize Hennigan was really doing fine and then in 3 moves basically lost his mind and blew it up.

2015 roster
G: Payton, Watson
G: Oladipo, Fournier
F: Harris, Hezonja
F: Gordon, Frye
C: Vucevic, Dedmon

Move 1: Tobias Harris for two expiring contracts (Jennings, Ilyasova)

Move 2: Oladipo and 11th pick for Ibaka

Move 3: Using cap space created from the Harris trade and from the 2016 cap explosion to sign Biyombo, Augustin and Green.

So in less then one year the Magic went from a very promising young rotation to this…

2016 roster
G: Payton, Augustin
G: Fournier, Watson
F: Gordon, Hezonja
F: Ibaka, Green
C: Vucevic, Biyombo

Much older and so much worse.

And Skiles, the coach that Hennigan was attempting to appeal to, ended up quitting anyway!

What’s funny about both of these rosters (2015 & 2016) is something that haunts this current organization.

There was no outside shooting in either year and it wasn’t addressed with any of the moves he made. He went bigger instead of following where the league was trending. Sound familiar?

This organization has a serious problem with rolling out lineups that don’t work in theory or practice. Nothing has changed.

Ibaka was having the best distance shooting season of his career, just shy of 40% from distance on 4 3pa (pretty good volume for a big at the time) when he was brought on, so I don't think they weren't addressing *some* of that. I think the primary hope was a twin towers defensive with he and Biyombo (another terrible contract) so maybe the shooting was just an added bonus and didn't weigh on the decision at all.

I always looked at it as a defensive move to pair with Vuc. That and the Biyombo pairing was just gimmicky despite how fun it looked on paper.

I dunno man, it’s still more of the same. One plus shooter and a guy that kinda can in the starting lineup. Aaron Gordon at the 3 was something that was rehashed here forever until it became obvious it was a stupid idea that didn’t make sense.

It ended up just being a big team that sucked on offense to my total lack of surprise.

[Skybox]

What’s funny about both of these rosters (2015 & 2016) is something that haunts this current organization.

There was no outside shooting in either year and it wasn’t addressed with any of the moves he made. He went bigger instead of following where the league was trending. Sound familiar?

This organization has a serious problem with rolling out lineups that don’t work in theory or practice. Nothing has changed.

Ibaka was having the best distance shooting season of his career, just shy of 40% from distance on 4 3pa (pretty good volume for a big at the time) when he was brought on, so I don't think they weren't addressing *some* of that. I think the primary hope was a twin towers defensive with he and Biyombo (another terrible contract) so maybe the shooting was just an added bonus and didn't weigh on the decision at all.

I always looked at it as a defensive move to pair with Vuc. That and the Biyombo pairing was just gimmicky despite how fun it looked on paper.

I dunno man, it’s still more of the same. One plus shooter and a guy that kinda can in the starting lineup. Aaron Gordon at the 3 was something that was rehashed here forever until it became obvious it was a stupid idea that didn’t make sense.

It ended up just being a big team that sucked on offense to my total lack of surprise.

Vuc got benched and then caught some fan heat for stating he was the best player on the team…which was true, by a mile. First time Vuc proved ‘‘em wrong. Second was Bamba coming for his job

[RookieStar]

I didn't bother looking up what we got for him because whatever it was it wasn't much.

You should have, it was the pick that became Tyrese Maxey that we traded for Fultz. Makes the trade even worse

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using RealGM mobile app

Seriously???!!!

It's the gift that keeps giving (to everyone else but the Magic)!!!

Aaaaaaaaggggghhhhhhh!

Just breathe... think of it as a penance for the Vuc trade... it's also the gift that keeps on giving for us. Wcj, Franz and whoever

[CZ Eddie]

I liked Henny and had the chance to hang out with him for a little while at the Staples center during a Magic game back in the day.
He did start out great as our GM and I liked a lot of his ideas.
I was living in LA at the time and he asked my opinion about a young Russian/Armenian (can't remember which) player they had at the time.

On April 30, 2015, the Orlando Magic extended the contract of Hennigan through the 2017–18 season. He was fired on April 13, 2017. In his five years as GM, the Magic posted a 132–278 record, the worst five-year stretch in team history.[6] His interim replacement was assistant general manager Matt Lloyd for nearly a month before it was announced that Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond would be his official replacement.

Looks like he might be in OKC now?
https://basketball.realgm.com/staff/Rob-Hennigan/Summary/1301

[CZ Eddie]

I think a lot of us were pretty excited that he'd turn the Magic into a rough 'n tough attitude Hockey level team.

[JT3000]

When you look at that 2015 roster, you realize Hennigan was really doing fine and then in 3 moves basically lost his mind and blew it up.

2015 roster
G: Payton, Watson
G: Oladipo, Fournier
F: Harris, Hezonja
F: Gordon, Frye
C: Vucevic, Dedmon

Move 1: Tobias Harris for two expiring contracts (Jennings, Ilyasova)

Move 2: Oladipo and 11th pick for Ibaka

Move 3: Using cap space created from the Harris trade and from the 2016 cap explosion to sign Biyombo, Augustin and Green.

So in less then one year the Magic went from a very promising young rotation to this…

2016 roster
G: Payton, Augustin
G: Fournier, Watson
F: Gordon, Hezonja
F: Ibaka, Green
C: Vucevic, Biyombo

Much older and so much worse.

And Skiles, the coach that Hennigan was attempting to appeal to, ended up quitting anyway!

That's the stuff of nightmares. He is by far our all-time worst GM.

I still remember all the unwarranted optimism about this guy when he was first hired. Everyone on this board was convinced he'd take us to the promised land, for no apparent reason. Makes me chuckle every time, followed by the urge for a stiff drink.

[Kent]

You know things have turned around when we have to look in our past for something to complain about.

I get it. Just some off-season banter.

[Bensational]

I didn't bother looking up what we got for him because whatever it was it wasn't much.

You should have, it was the pick that became Tyrese Maxey that we traded for Fultz. Makes the trade even worse

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using RealGM mobile app

Seriously???!!!

It's the gift that keeps giving (to everyone else but the Magic)!!!

Aaaaaaaaggggghhhhhhh!

We still could have picked Maxey that draft but we chose Cole instead. Fultz didn’t cost us Maxey.

If we’d picked Maxey I’d be curious if WeHam still would’ve drafted Suggs, or if they’d have gone with Giddey/Kuminga instead?

[Bensational]

Ibaka was having the best distance shooting season of his career, just shy of 40% from distance on 4 3pa (pretty good volume for a big at the time) when he was brought on, so I don't think they weren't addressing *some* of that. I think the primary hope was a twin towers defensive with he and Biyombo (another terrible contract) so maybe the shooting was just an added bonus and didn't weigh on the decision at all.

I always looked at it as a defensive move to pair with Vuc. That and the Biyombo pairing was just gimmicky despite how fun it looked on paper.

I dunno man, it’s still more of the same. One plus shooter and a guy that kinda can in the starting lineup. Aaron Gordon at the 3 was something that was rehashed here forever until it became obvious it was a stupid idea that didn’t make sense.

It ended up just being a big team that sucked on offense to my total lack of surprise.

Vuc got benched and then caught some fan heat for stating he was the best player on the team…which was true, by a mile. First time Vuc proved ‘‘em wrong. Second was Bamba coming for his job

Yeah Vuc has been doing fine work leading Chicago deep into the postseason since we shipped him out. Proved us all wrong by gifting us the pick that became Franz and now another lottery pick.

Fournier can’t get on the court. Payton is in the G league.

Aaron Gordon is playing for the best team in the West. Seems one of them was capable of helping a contender.

[pepe1991]

Anathomy of disaster: Trying to build roster where you are so delusional to understand that Payton and Gordon aren't cornerstones.

Gordon existence moved Harris out of existence.
Payton's existence impacted Ibaka trade & picking Evan over Oladipo due "fit".

Biyombo was just nail in a coffin

[Skybox]

I always looked at it as a defensive move to pair with Vuc. That and the Biyombo pairing was just gimmicky despite how fun it looked on paper.

I dunno man, it’s still more of the same. One plus shooter and a guy that kinda can in the starting lineup. Aaron Gordon at the 3 was something that was rehashed here forever until it became obvious it was a stupid idea that didn’t make sense.

It ended up just being a big team that sucked on offense to my total lack of surprise.

Vuc got benched and then caught some fan heat for stating he was the best player on the team…which was true, by a mile. First time Vuc proved ‘‘em wrong. Second was Bamba coming for his job

Yeah Vuc has been doing fine work leading Chicago deep into the postseason since we shipped him out. Proved us all wrong by gifting us the pick that became Franz and now another lottery pick.

Fournier can’t get on the court. Payton is in the G league.

Aaron Gordon is playing for the best team in the West. Seems one of them was capable of helping a contender.

Not arguing the trade or direction or results…plainly stating how it went with Biz over Vuc. If Ibaka actually showed up for work and Frank Vogel didn’t have the worst stretch of his career in ORL (a la Jeff Green), it might have been a complementary pairing with Vuc (who, at the time, was a low-post bucket).