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The Official 2023 Draft Thread

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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#401 » by gesa2 » Wed Apr 26, 2023 5:47 pm

NatP4 wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:Nat have you dropped your top 5 preferred picks for the Wiz yet?


If we stay put up 8/9 and don’t trade up or down, I would pick:

1. Bilal Coulibaly (mocked 25-35ish)
2. Ausar Thompson (if he miraculously drops)
3. Sidy Cissoko (mocked 15-28ish)
4. Brandon Podziemski (mocked 30-40ish)
5. Derrick Lively

Pretty clear to me that we should trade down, as I’m stating that I would take Coulibaly, Cissoko, Podziemski all the way up in the top 10, yet they are mocked mid to late 1st at best. Cissoko is rising rapidly, Coulibaly will do the same after recently declaring. We shall see

It’s possible that Coulibaly ends up being projected in the top 10. I would go into draft night looking to take Ausar/Coulibaly at 8/9. If both are gone, trade down with Utah for 16&28 and take Cissoko/Podziemski.

If you win any of the top 4 picks, I’m ranking the top 4 like this personally:

1. Wemby
2. Coulibaly
3. Ausar
4. Miller

Scoot and Amen do absolutely have upside, but I have some real concerns.


NatP4 I really respect how you declare your beliefs and rankings independent of conventional wisdom. The healthy disagreement you and Dat2U have on the draft makes for great reading.
Making extreme statements like "only" sounds like there are "no" Jokics in this draft? Jokic is an engine that was drafted in the 2nd round. Always a chance to see diamond dropped by sloppy burgular after a theft.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#402 » by dobrojim » Wed Apr 26, 2023 5:48 pm

gambitx777 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
ozthegap wrote:
Didn't he? We went from a bunch of clowns to a semi decent team during his tenure. We weren't as fun to watch as the Agent 0 years but we definitely achieved more playoff success.

I wouldn't really credit Wall for transforming the team. The team was terrible in Wall's first 3 seasons until all the "clowns" (McGee, Blatche, Young) were removed by Grunfeld and replaced with veterans (Nene, Gortat, Ariza, Gooden; and later Morris and Pierce). Wall also had a lot more help than Arenas with two top 3 picks (Beal and Porter) alongside him.
Don't forget NeNe was a top ten pick back in the day!



Acquiring Nene basically coincided with our becoming a winning team. Or maybe getting rid of McGee
who was supremely gifted physically but had trouble becoming a decent NBA player, ie understanding
how to harness his physical gifts.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#403 » by Dark Faze » Wed Apr 26, 2023 5:54 pm

The one time we actually want to reach on a foreign player mocked late first is the year we get rid of Tommy lol

Hopefully Coulibaly mocks closer to our position so that he's on our radar and it's more of a chalk choice. Don't have confidence that we'll trade down.

Are there any players mocking around our range that you're seriously hoping we stay away from?
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#404 » by dobrojim » Wed Apr 26, 2023 5:58 pm

FWIW, the guy I think could be really solid and less of a the kind of gamble PIF's analysis
leads one to conclude virtually every draft pick is, would be Trayce JacksonDavis who Tankathon
currently has at 32. Tankathon only dings him for being old and for lack of an NBA 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/trayce-jackson-davis

He could be a real bargain. I only saw him play 1x which was in the tourney
this year but he looked pretty beastly and skilled which could arguably be
because he was older more mature than his competition. But in Tank's analysis,
it's a long list of green (good) marks and short list of red warning signs.

I can't help but think he'll rise in the draft, will go much higher than 32.

Sometimes too much emphasis is put on youth (potential) and not
enough on proven results. See Paul Millsap.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#405 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:09 pm

Dark Faze wrote:The one time we actually want to reach on a foreign player mocked late first is the year we get rid of Tommy lol

Hopefully Coulibaly mocks closer to our position so that he's on our radar and it's more of a chalk choice. Don't have confidence that we'll trade down.

Are there any players mocking around our range that you're seriously hoping we stay away from?


Just about all of them haha. That probably has more to do with the treadmill state of the franchise, but I would be pretty disappointed if we walked away with Gradey Dick, Brice Sensabaugh, Jordan Hawkins, Cason Wallace, Anthony Black, Taylor Hendricks. All of them are solid and definitely NBA rotation players, but I don’t think any of them move the needle or end up as impact players. It would be very similar to picking Corey Kispert or Johnny Davis. Uninspiring.

Now if you take a guy like Whitmore, GG Jackson, Keyonte George, Nick Smith Jr, Jett Howard, Jalen Hood-Scifino, that’s an even bigger problem. Those guys have serious bust potential.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#406 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:28 pm

dobrojim wrote:FWIW, the guy I think could be really solid and less of a the kind of gamble PIF's analysis
leads one to conclude virtually every draft pick is, would be Trayce JacksonDavis who Tankathon
currently has at 32. Tankathon only dings him for being old and for lack of an NBA 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/trayce-jackson-davis

He could be a real bargain. I only saw him play 1x which was in the tourney
this year but he looked pretty beastly and skilled which could arguably be
because he was older more mature than his competition. But in Tank's analysis,
it's a long list of green (good) marks and short list of red warning signs.

I can't help but think he'll rise in the draft, will go much higher than 32.

Sometimes too much emphasis is put on youth (potential) and not
enough on proven results. See Paul Millsap.
Trayce Jackson Davis is a Millsap all over again.

Stats say top-7 lottery NCAA player.

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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#407 » by Frichuela » Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:53 pm

Ok, so let me play Wizards GM and commit to who I would draft in their place:

1) Wemby
2) Scoot. I hear the concerns but I see great upside. As Dat said, projects John Wall with a better jumper.
3) Miller
4) One of the Thompson twins. Amen’s shooting scares me…so I would get Amen in our training facilities pre draft and try to assess if his jumper is fixable.
8-9) Cason Wallace. I love his poise and defensive instincts. I hear people about his lack of burst/first step but I would hope he turns into Jrue Holiday lite.

I would also try hard to trade Beal, S&T Kuz and trade Morris for draft capital. For example:

A) Beal to Miami for Herro+Lowry+#18. At #18 I’ll choose a wing (Coulibaly, Morris, Colby Jones, Cissoko).
B) Morris+#42 to LA Clippers for Covington+#30. At #30 I’d love Jackson-Davis or any of the wings above if they drop…
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#408 » by dobrojim » Wed Apr 26, 2023 7:13 pm

I like the idea but I bet TJD goes higher than 30. We shall see.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#409 » by doclinkin » Wed Apr 26, 2023 10:01 pm

dobrojim wrote:FWIW, the guy I think could be really solid and less of a the kind of gamble PIF's analysis
leads one to conclude virtually every draft pick is, would be Trayce JacksonDavis who Tankathon
currently has at 32. Tankathon only dings him for being old and for lack of an NBA 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/trayce-jackson-davis

He could be a real bargain. I only saw him play 1x which was in the tourney
this year but he looked pretty beastly and skilled which could arguably be
because he was older more mature than his competition. But in Tank's analysis,
it's a long list of green (good) marks and short list of red warning signs.

I can't help but think he'll rise in the draft, will go much higher than 32.

Sometimes too much emphasis is put on youth (potential) and not
enough on proven results. See Paul Millsap.



TJD is one of my targets if we can get him on a trade down. The only knock on him is that he doesn't shoot from outside. He just knows his role and does it at a superior level. He is one of the few players in this draft that I have rock solid confidence in. Usually I have a guy who stands out as a secret steal, or upside pick, potential star overlooked. I don't see that guy. I just know that TJD will be a pro's pro with early production on his first contract and a long career.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#410 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 26, 2023 11:28 pm

doclinkin wrote:
dobrojim wrote:FWIW, the guy I think could be really solid and less of a the kind of gamble PIF's analysis
leads one to conclude virtually every draft pick is, would be Trayce JacksonDavis who Tankathon
currently has at 32. Tankathon only dings him for being old and for lack of an NBA 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/trayce-jackson-davis

He could be a real bargain. I only saw him play 1x which was in the tourney
this year but he looked pretty beastly and skilled which could arguably be
because he was older more mature than his competition. But in Tank's analysis,
it's a long list of green (good) marks and short list of red warning signs.

I can't help but think he'll rise in the draft, will go much higher than 32.

Sometimes too much emphasis is put on youth (potential) and not
enough on proven results. See Paul Millsap.



TJD is one of my targets if we can get him on a trade down. The only knock on him is that he doesn't shoot from outside. He just knows his role and does it at a superior level. He is one of the few players in this draft that I have rock solid confidence in. Usually I have a guy who stands out as a secret steal, or upside pick, potential star overlooked. I don't see that guy. I just know that TJD will be a pro's pro with early production on his first contract and a long career.


I specifically watched TJD/Indiana closely in the tournament for the first time. I knew his numbers were great, but I wanted to watch full games.

He was absolutely horrible. Some of the worst body language I have ever seen in a player. Wanted the ball in the post every possession and would visually throw a fit if he didn’t get it. Gave zero effort with paint defense, doesn't contest shots, doesn’t box out at all. Consistently gave the other team offensive rebounds and layups. It was hard to watch. It was very bizarre. Simply does not play hard.

Maybe it was just those few games in particular? I have no idea really, but I changed my opinion on him completely.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#411 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 26, 2023 11:31 pm

badinage wrote:
payitforward wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Desmond Bane taking over a pivotal playoff game on the road. 30th overall pick. Selected after Kira Lewis, Peyton Prichard, Tyrese Maxey, Cole Anthony.

Here, with their pick positions, are the 16 players out of the 2020 draft who have put up good numbers. The order is of pick position, obviously, not of how good they've been:

Lamelo - 3
Isaac Okoru - 5
Onyeka Okongwu - 6
Tyrese Haliburton - 12
Josh Green - 18
Saddiq Bey - 19 ('22-23 was his first good year)
Tyrese Maxey - 21
Immanuel Quickley - 25
Payton Pritchard - 26 (but had a down year this year)
Desmond Bane - 30
Xavier Tillman - 35
Tre Jones - 41
Nick Richards - 42
Isaiah Joe - 49 ('22-23 was his first good year -- but it was *quite* good!)
KMart Jr. - 52
Paul Reed - 58 (in limited minutes)

Twenty of the thirty R1 picks from that year have ranged from bad to frustrating to nothing special: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29.

Note how evenly that bad/meh list is distributed across R1:
3 of the top 5
4 of the next 5
4 of the third 5
3 of the fourth 5
3 of the fifth 5
3 of the last 5


Put up good OFFENSIVE numbers.

From the metrics I’ve seen, Deni appears to be a far, far better defensive player — half the game — than all of these guys.

Fair -- & I didn't mean to focus negativity on Deni.

OTOH, "all these guys" is a pretty big claim. I'm not questioning it, per se, but I'd love to see the defensive metrics you're referencing.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#412 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 26, 2023 11:38 pm

NatP4 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:TJD is one of my targets if we can get him on a trade down. The only knock on him is that he doesn't shoot from outside. He just knows his role and does it at a superior level. He is one of the few players in this draft that I have rock solid confidence in. Usually I have a guy who stands out as a secret steal, or upside pick, potential star overlooked. I don't see that guy. I just know that TJD will be a pro's pro with early production on his first contract and a long career.


I specifically watched TJD/Indiana closely in the tournament for the first time. I knew his numbers were great, but I wanted to watch full games.

He was absolutely horrible. Some of the worst body language I have ever seen in a player. Wanted the ball in the post every possession and would visually throw a fit if he didn’t get it. Gave zero effort with paint defense, doesn't contest shots, doesn’t box out at all. Consistently gave the other team offensive rebounds and layups. It was hard to watch. It was very bizarre. Simply does not play hard.

Maybe it was just those few games in particular? I have no idea really, but I changed my opinion on him completely.

This is super interesting -- a pair of totally contradictory takes on the same guy!

It'll be very fun to watch whether he proves either of you correct.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#413 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 26, 2023 11:52 pm

Highlights from one of the games I was referring to. Gets beat left and right, teammates consistently frustrated with his lack of effort. Looks totally lost on some plays.



The plays at 7:35 and 8:12 are some seriously pathetic effort for a big time NCAA tournament game.

Play 10:15 is flat out inexcusable. Haven’t ever seen a player give that poor of an effort in a tournament game.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#414 » by Dat2U » Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:59 am

I did the lottery:

1. Wemby and thank God!

2. Scoot. We've being crying for a PG with scoring chops that can put pressure on defenses. He's it.

3. B. Miller. Brings length & high level shooting skill to the SF position with flashes of shot creation off the bounce.

4. Amen. Just an all-world athlete in all aspects at 6-7. Good handle but not advanced... but his first step is so lethal and he's such a good contortionist, he consistently gets to the rim for powerful dunks or creative finishes. The best thing I can say about his shot is that he looks like he's always tweaking it so I know he's trying to fix it, and it looks better of recent but it's definite red flag as far as him negatively impacting floor gravity for others until he proves he's going to shoot and make a decent number of them. On the other handle he has great floor vision and makes some incredible reads and is potential switchable lock down defender with his lateral quickness & length who will consistently be among the league leaders in steals.

5. Ausur translates much better to an off ball role than Amen. While the playmaking is there, he shows Amen-like flashes in his reads he's more inconsistent in his decision making where he make some wild passes that leads to TOs. He's a great athlete in his own right and is definitely a 'quick twich' guy but he doesn't have Amen's first step. His shot looks to be a little more advanced than Amen's. He's getting left wide open like Amen but he's willing to take them and had a strong finish to his league's playoffs. Defensively, just like a Amen he can be a menace and another switchable defender who will wreck havoc in the passing lanes.

Shot creation is probably my biggest concern for the Thompson twins. Thusly, that sorta dooms them to potential elite role playes in my eyes. Neither is coming in the league with a bag to create off the bounce in either to mid-range or 3. Both are slasher extraordinaires and hopeful spot up shooters who will get left wide open until proven otherwise.

I figure Amen's althleticism & first step allow him to get to the rim still, especially if he's in a situation with decent spacing aroind him. He's also has ++ floor vision so he'll make the right plays most of the time.

Ausur's shooting confidence will go a long way which will allow his other complementary skills to flourish.

Neither has a true comparable. I don't remember a 6-7 PG with this type of athleticism or first step coming into the league. 6-4 with John Wall was the tallest. Then Russ at 6-3. Most everyone else like Rose, Morant are 6-2 or lower. IMO he's in that top 0.5% in terms of pure athleticism that have ever played in the NBA. Despite the flaws, that's something I take a risk on.

6. Cam Whitmore
Too much atlhetic juice at the F spot to ignore. I said early on in my evaluation process, he reminds me of a bigger Lance Stephenson. I think he has more playmaking chops than Lance after digging deeper and realizing he played in a less than ideal situation with Villanova this season. The floor vision gives me pause but visually he pops on the screen as an explosive finisher off straight line slashes. Crossover looks choppy but you have a real frame work for a Miles Bridges type 4. Not so much a 3 i my eyes anymore. Skill level wise, he'll be more effective against 4s & slower 3s. You will give up some rim protection here which is a concern.

7. Gradey Dick
Still love the guy. Safest pick in the draft with a sky high floor as a floor spacer who can attack closeouts and plays hard on D. A +++ shooter & + finisher as well on the break with some athletic pop at the rim. Disappointed with his first step so he'll need help to create space and a good system mighr be able to flesh out his high level decision making & shot making in P&Rs, DHOs, sceens, curls etc that Kansas staff didn't really focus on.

8. Taylor Hendricks
Taylor is my fast riser and honestly he's pushing Gradey for that 7th spot. I love his shot versatility at 6-9 in combination with his shot blocking skill. He shoots with high volume and is more than just a stand in the corner guy. Not functional beyond two dribbles so these shots will need to be created by the PG and running plays to get him open to fire away. At his size he could be a very nice asset if used correctly. I like his quick recogniton on D. Has elite timing on blocking shots, moreso than pure athleticism. Good athlete not a great one but + skills in two areas and high level awareness & motor on D portends to a long and successful NBA career.

9. Here's where it gets tough for me. If we slip to 9 and all of the above are gone, I'd be highly disappointed. I'd likely look for a trade down but Cason Wallace screams safe pick, high floor, consummate professional, ++ defender and + shooting. Where he'll fall short, at least initially is playmaking & creating off the bounce. Functional slasher and ballhandler but not a great first step. Monte Morris meets Delon Wright sounds about right.

10. Brice Sensabaugh. The best 3 level scorer in the draft that's not 7-4. Just don't ask me about creating for others or his defense, lol. People overlook his pure stroke from deep. He's a walking bucket, can create his own shot and always got to his preferred spots. That sounds like a guy that you take and hope he defends better in your system!

11. I like unique traits. Jett Howard's wiggle off the bounce is really impressive for a 6-8 guy. He'll eat creating mid-range shots in high level situations if allowed too. The potential for 3 level scoring is there. You got the NBA pedigree as well.

12. Dereck Lively II. Best pure rim runner in the draft. These guys are starting to get overlooked a bit now. Lively has elite traits. Just a big human being that's also very mobile with quick feet. The lack of skill says he'll only score as a finisher and offensive rebounder. But the awareness, length & feet on D says he can be a game changer on that end.

13. This is more of Jarace Walker's range to me. Talk of him going as high as 4 is crazy. A mobile 6-8 big built to impose his physicality who flashes tiertary playmaking skill. Problem is his shaky jumper and while he's a good athlete who can face up against slower bigs... he's not like going to use his playmaking skill extensively unless his shot advances significantly. Defense is why you take him. Should be extremely versatile and be able to guard some big 3s and smaller 5s.

14. Jordan Hawkins... Rip Hamilton-ish vibes. High level shot maker with a pure stroke. Should be ready to play right away.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#415 » by Dat2U » Thu Apr 27, 2023 4:25 am

Wemby/LeBron/Shaq/Magic/Wilt Tier

1. PF Victor Wembamyama

Tier One

None

Tier Two

2. PG Scoot Henderson

Tier Three

3. SF Brandon Miller
4. PG Amen Thompson
5. SG Ausur Thompson
6. PF Cam Whitmore
7. SF Gradey Dick
8. PF Taylor Hendricks

Tier Four
9. PG Cason Wallace
10. SF Brice Sensabaugh
11. SF Jett Howard
12. C Dereck Lively II
13. PF Jarace Walker
14. SG Jordan Hawkins
15. PF Kris Murray
16. SF Bilal Coulibaly
17. SF Maxwell Lewis
18. SG Kobe Bufkin
19. SG Colby Jones

Tier Five
20. PF Leonard Miller
21. SF Dariq Whitehead
22. PG Marcus Sasser
23. SG Keyonte George
24. PG Nick Smith Jr
25. SG Rayan Rupert
26. SG Bradin Podziemski
27. PG Jalen Hood-Schifino
28. PF G.G. Jackson

Tier Six
29. SF Julian Strawther
30. SG Terquavion Smith
31. PF Noah Clowney
32. PF Jalen Wilson
33. C Zach Edey
34. SG Ricky Council IV
35. C James Nnaji
36. SF Jaime Jacquez Jr
37. C DaRon Holmes II
38. C Trayce Jackson-Davis
39. SG Sidy Cissoko
40. SF Andre Jackson Jr
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#416 » by DCZards » Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:18 pm

Yo Dat, you don’t have Anthony Black in the top 40? Or did you just forget to include him?
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#417 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:47 pm

This is amazing work on your part, Dat. Deep, thoughtful, & clearly communicated. It's thoroughly convincing. Stellar!

I don't know what you do for a living, man, but this is certainly something you could do if you really wanted to & which, IMO, you should do.

Get out there with it, man! Do a podcast. Do a youtube channel. Start a substack newsletter. Something...!

Better yet, figure out how to get your analysis in front of someone reasonably high up in the Wizards organization. Send it to JTIII. There is a way, Dat. Find it!

Ask for help if you need it, but do not hold back! Shake the tree. Make it happen!
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#418 » by Dat2U » Thu Apr 27, 2023 7:15 pm

DCZards wrote:Yo Dat, you don’t have Anthony Black in the top 40? Or did you just forget to include him?


I knew I was missing someone lol. Black is 13th ion my board, right ahead of Jarace Walker.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#419 » by queridiculo » Thu Apr 27, 2023 7:28 pm

I must be crazy thinking I'd take Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson huh?

Undersized guard with elite athleticism that can't shoot, where have I seen this before?

The Scoot hype is too strong, but maybe I'm just disappointed how John Wall's tenure fizzled out.

I dunno, tough to be excited about the lottery or the draft in general with this organization.

They'll find a way to **** it up.
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Re: The Official 2023 Draft Thread 

Post#420 » by Dark Faze » Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:56 pm

queridiculo wrote:I must be crazy thinking I'd take Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson huh?

Undersized guard with elite athleticism that can't shoot, where have I seen this before?

The Scoot hype is too strong, but maybe I'm just disappointed how John Wall's tenure fizzled out.

I dunno, tough to be excited about the lottery or the draft in general with this organization.

They'll find a way to **** it up.


Shooting like 20% from the field during the entirety of the month of March was a bit tough to swallow if you're sitting at #2.

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