The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[NatP4]

Ingram, Brown, and Beal certainly do not belong in that category, but you’re right. It seems like there is around a 30% or so chance at selecting an All-NBA talent at one of those picks on average.

I would say that from a historical perspective, out of Scoot, Miller, and one of the Thompson twins: 1 could be an All starish player, but atleast 1 will be a total bust.

Miller is likely to NOT be the total bust IMO. Scoot and Amen are likely to be the other picks.

Right now, I would predict that Amen is the most likely bust. Scoot is a safer bet to be a solid pro.

IMO, out of the 54 total picks from 2004-2021 in the 2/3/4 slots, there were 14 major “hits” or All-NBA level players, and 24 major “busts”. That’s around a 30% hit rate, and a 44% miss rate. Of course, somewhat subjective. The other 16 players are solid rotation to above average starters.

[Rafael122]

Dat is stating that 2 for 9/16/28 is bad value.

PIF is stating that #2 would not return 9/16/28, but that it would be good value if possible(I think).

I am stating that 2 CAN return 9/16/28 and that it would incredibly great value in this particular draft.

It's bad value in the sense that you're missing out on Scoot Henderson just so that you can trade back and grab players that don't have the same upside. In any other draft where 6 players could be the top pick, sure, trade back, because if 6 guys can go #1 overall, it means you don't have a true top pick. There's already a drop off from Wemby to Scoot, then Scoot and Miller have a separation themselves, now you're asking me to drop another tier or two just to hoard some picks.

[payitforward]

Dat is stating that 2 for 9/16/28 is bad value.

In fairness, dat wrote "...seems like...."

PIF is stating that #2 would not return 9/16/28, but that it would be good value if possible(I think).

It's almost exclusively a theoretical question, since it's a rare draft where one team has those 3 picks.

Yet, it seems so obvious that in a rare case like this year, there would be no motivation at all for Utah to make the trade.

At the same time, rethinking it -- is it all that clear without the benefit of hindsight? I don't think so, actually!

After all, comparing the guy who was actually taken at #2 vs. hindsight-enabled best picks at 9, 16 & 28 is both unfair & unrealistic.

The guys actually taken at 2 vs. the guys actually 9, 16 & 28 is another matter -- & it's not nearly so obvious it's a good trade!

How about the best hindsight-enabled pick at 2 vs. the same at 9, 16 & 28? Does that favor the trade?

Let's say in 2008, I can take Westbrook at 2. Who was available at 9/16/28 that I'd rather have as a trio? No one.
Make in 2009 & I take Steph at 2. Would it have been better to take the guys hindsight tells me were the best on the board at 9, 16 & 28? Not that year.
2010 & Paul George at 2. But he was still there at 9, so the trade works.
2011 & Kawhi at 2. The trade works.
2012 & Lillard. He's gone at 9. I can get Draymond at 16 & Middleton at 28. Whom do I take at 9, however? The trade doesn't yield value this year.
2013 & Giannis at 2. Still there at 9, so the trade works.
2014 & Jokic at 2. Trade works.
2015 & hindsight puts Booker at 2. Still there at 9, so the trade works
2016 -- hindsight says take Sabonis at 2. But he was still there at 9. Trade works.
2017 -- this one is interesting. You'd take Tatum at 2. If you make the trade, it's either Donovan Mitchell or Bam at 9. Then at 16 either Jarrett Allen or John Collins? & either Derrick White or Josh Hart at 28. This one can be argued either way I'd say....
2018 -- Another interesting one: you'd take Doncic at 2. But, if you made the trade, you'd get SGA at 9, either Robert Williams or Mitchell Robinson at 16, & Jalen Brunson at 28.
2019 -- Ja at 2. If you trade, it's likely Cam Johnson at 9, Brandon Clarke at 16 & Keldon Johnson at 28.I can see it going either way.
2020 -- hindsight says take Haliburton at #2. He's still there at 9, so, in this case, sure: make the trade.

So: it seems to be a good trade about 1/2 of the time. Make sense?

I am stating that 2 CAN return 9/16/28 and that it would incredibly great value in this particular draft.

If "it would be incredibly great value" this year in particular, please explain Utah's motivation for making the trade. People don't usually like to make trades that don't favor them, & Danny Ainge is kind of a smart fellow, don't you think?

[NatP4]

Dat is stating that 2 for 9/16/28 is bad value.

PIF is stating that #2 would not return 9/16/28, but that it would be good value if possible(I think).

I am stating that 2 CAN return 9/16/28 and that it would incredibly great value in this particular draft.

It's bad value in the sense that you're missing out on Scoot Henderson just so that you can trade back and grab players that don't have the same upside. In any other draft where 6 players could be the top pick, sure, trade back, because if 6 guys can go #1 overall, it means you don't have a true top pick. There's already a drop off from Wemby to Scoot, then Scoot and Miller have a separation themselves, now you're asking me to drop another tier or two just to hoard some picks.

In the average draft, 9/16/28 > 2. Of course, you have to look at things on a case by case scenario, which is why I would not trade out of #1, even though 1 for 9/16/28 is probably better in a fair amount of drafts as well.

In terms of 2 for 9/16/28:

In 2009, it’s Hasheem Thabeet Vs Demar Derozan/James Johnson/Wayne Ellington

In 2010, it’s Evan Turner Vs Gordon Hayward/Luke Babbit/Greivis Vasquez

In 2011, Derrick Williams Vs Kemba Walker/Nikola Vucevic/Norris Cole

In 2012, Michael Kidd Gilchrist Vs Andre Drummond/Royce White/Perry Jones

The only “hits” with the #2 overall pick from 2004-2021 were Ja Morant, Kevin Durant, and Lamarcus Aldridge. You have some solid guys like Brandon Ingram, Victor Oladipo, and Lonzo Ball, and ALOT of busts.

[pcbothwel]

I dont think value is bad, but I would much rather stay in the top 7/8 and get a first next year. Charlotte, Orlando, Indiana, Utah, etc. All teams that appear to be trying to win now that they have multiple lotto picks in recent years and probably want 1 more elite prospect. Getting 7 + 2024 1st from Orlando would be my ask. Now that I think about it:
Beal + 2
for
Isaac, Suggs, 7, 11, 2024 1st (Top 10 protected)

I could see the Magic looking at a lineup as Scoot, Beal, Wagner, Banchero, Carter as a playoff team in year 1, and making noise in year 2.

[NatP4]

I’m not sure that works, PIF. Significantly more “hindsight” players are available from 9 and so on. You would have to give the best player of each draft to the 2nd pick in that hypothetical scenario, no? I need to think about this more.

To your last point- I have no idea. The entire league thought Cade Cunningham was the next Doncic and a generational prospect, he has been pretty bad so far. I was very clear about my opinion on him, didn’t think he would be good. I can say the same about Jalen Green and my opinion about him, Jaden Ivey as well. I know it’s a bit early on all of them. Point is, the entire league consensus can be very wrong. It’s quite common.

Do a giant historical analysis of each pick slot in the draft over the last 15 years. There is not THAT big of a gap in terms of future production between picks 1-30, as you know. Seems pretty obvious to me that on average, you want 9+16+28 over 2. But again, I am making the case for this year in particular as well.

The best exercise and thought process IMO, is simply comparing the actual picks at 2 Vs 9/16/28 over a large sample. That is pretty close like you said, add in a personal view of this draft in particular and specific players available at the 9/16/28 slots.

But of course it’s all hypothetical. I don’t prefer to look at everything through the “what will the wizards do” lens. They would of course pick Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Jan Vesely, and Trevor Booker.

[payitforward]

... I guess if I have a point it is this: you can build a quality playoff team with players picked later in the draft....

Absolutely!
& you can lose w/ a bunch of high lottery picks too!

Some of the best players in the league were picked late in the draft.

Jimmy Butler, Robert Williams, Nikola Jokic, Brandon Clarke, Delon Wright, Mitchell Robinson, Kawhi, Giannis, Looney, Josh Hart, Jarred Vanderbilt, Clint Capela, Xavier Tillman, Larry Nance Jr., Thaddeus Young, John Konchar, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, Jrue Holiday, Tyus Jones, Austin Reaves, Malcolm Brogdon, Jarrett Allen, Derrick White, Jalen Brunson, Kenyon Martin Jr., Jericho Sims, Torrey Craig, Monte Morris, Desmond Bane, Terance Mann, Alex Caruso, Draymond Green, Tray Murphy III, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Ivica Zubac, Tre Jones, Jalen Johnson, Tari Eason, Herb Jones, Spencer Dinwiddie, Matisse Thybulle, Bobby Portis, Hamidou Diallo, Kevin Huerter, Grant Williams, Nic Batum, Robert Covington, Tobias Harris, OG Anunoby, DeAnthony Melton, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Fred VanVleet, Bol Bol, Sam Hauser, Pat Connaughton....

Those are all one or another version of outstanding NBA players -- guys who make their teams significantly better by what they do, guys who help their teams win.

The ones high on the list are among the best players in the league. They don't all score a lot of points per game, which means that to the average NBA fan they are more or less invisible, but obviously that's not the only way to be an outstanding player (for that matter, players who score a lot of points at low efficiency, i.e. by taking a lot of shots, are usually not good players at all).

[nate33]

Do a giant historical analysis of each pick slot in the draft over the last 15 years. There is not THAT big of a gap in terms of future production between picks 1-30, as you know. Seems pretty obvious to me that on average, you want 9+16+28 over 2. But again, I am making the case for this year in particular as well.

This is off the 15-year span from 2005-2019, which is what I found easily available in list form with a google search:

If you had all the #2 picks from 2005-2019, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
Durant
Morant
Ingram
Aldridge
L.Ball
Oladipo
D.Russell
MKG
Assuming everyone is in their prime at the same time, that team would be title favorites, particularly if they traded one guard for a big to balance their roster

If you had all the #3 picks from 2005-2019, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
Luka
Embiid
Tatum
Harden
J.Brown
Horford
Beal
Porter
That's the greatest team of all time.

If you had all the #9, #16 and #28 picks, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
G.Hayward
Derozan
J.Noah
K.Walker
Drummond
Vucevic
Rozier
Poole
That's a 2nd round playoff team.

[payitforward]

In the average draft, 9/16/28 > 2. Of course, you have to look at things on a case by case scenario, which is why I would not trade out of #1, even though 1 for 9/16/28 is probably better in a fair amount of drafts as well.

In terms of 2 for 9/16/28:

In 2009, it’s Hasheem Thabeet Vs Demar Derozan/James Johnson/Wayne Ellington

In 2010, it’s Evan Turner Vs Gordon Hayward/Luke Babbit/Greivis Vasquez

In 2011, Derrick Williams Vs Kemba Walker/Nikola Vucevic/Norris Cole

In 2012, Michael Kidd Gilchrist Vs Andre Drummond/Royce White/Perry Jones

The only “hits” with the #2 overall pick from 2004-2021 were Ja Morant, Kevin Durant, and Lamarcus Aldridge. You have some solid guys like Brandon Ingram, Victor Oladipo, and Lonzo Ball, and ALOT of busts.

This is good, Nat -- it's the actual picks at 2 & at the other 3 spots.

But, you choose not to go on to 2013, for example, where it was Oladipo vs. Trey Burke, Lucas Nogueira & Livio-Jean Charles.

There are plenty of drafts where the preference doesn't hold -- & anyway that's no surprise, given that you only chose these particular spots -- 9, 16 & 28 -- because they offer a potential trade down this year! I.e. b/c Utah has all 3 of those picks!

There's nothing special about those 3 spots in particular.
It's the overall point that is the key one: the draft is not simply "a crap shoot," but there is enough uncertainty at every single pick that multiple picks offers a significant protection against a wasted draft. & you can turn a single pick into multiple picks by trading down. Given that history does NOT show that picks become good players in the order of where they were chosen, the risk of trading down seems pretty small.

[payitforward]

Do a giant historical analysis of each pick slot in the draft over the last 15 years. There is not THAT big of a gap in terms of future production between picks 1-30, as you know. Seems pretty obvious to me that on average, you want 9+16+28 over 2. But again, I am making the case for this year in particular as well.

This is off the 10-year span from 2010-2019, which is what I found easily available in list form with a google search:

If you had all the #2 picks from 2005-2019, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
Durant
Morant
Ingram
Aldridge
L.Ball
Oladipo
D.Russell
MKG
Assuming everyone is in their prime at the same time, that team would be title favorites, particularly if they traded one guard for a big to balance their roster

If you had all the #3 picks from 2005-2019, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
Luka
Embiid
Tatum
Harden
J.Brown
Horford
Beal
Porter
That's the greatest team of all time.

If you had all the #9, #16 and #28 picks, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
G.Hayward
Derozan
J.Noah
K.Walker
Drummond
Vucevic
Rozier
Poole
That's a 2nd round playoff team.

That's not surprising, nate. But it's an effect of numbers not nature.

It'd be a shock if you couldn't list 8 outstanding players taken #2 over a period of 16 years! How bad can GMs be!

Suppose instead you take the 8 worst players from those 16 #2 picks instead of the 8 best.
& then you take the 2d best 8 from that alternate list of 24 (picked at 9, 16 & 28 over the same period).

How do those 2 teams match up? Pretty different situation I bet!

Edit -- I should mention that I don't have a horse in this race. In fact, in a way it's sorta pointless: how often has it ever been possible to trade the #2 pick for 9, 16 & 28? My guess is that it's been possible exactly once -- this year!

[NatP4]

Not the best exercise at all. Maybe offers some commentary on upside, but not draft results as a whole. Not to mention, the 9/16/28 groups is much better than the #2 overall group even with you leaving out a number of good players.

Durant
Morant
Ingram
Aldridge
L.Ball
Oladipo
D.Russell
MKG

G.Hayward
Derozan
J.Noah
K.Walker
Drummond
Vucevic
Rozier
Poole

Left out Jakob Poeltl, Jusuf Nurkic,

Guys like Ian Mahinmi, Nick Young, Tiago Splitter, Vazquez, Ellington, DJ Augustin, and Cole were solid role players. Silly to call that a 2nd round playoff team.

[Kanyewest]

Do a giant historical analysis of each pick slot in the draft over the last 15 years. There is not THAT big of a gap in terms of future production between picks 1-30, as you know. Seems pretty obvious to me that on average, you want 9+16+28 over 2. But again, I am making the case for this year in particular as well.

This is off the 10-year span from 2010-2019, which is what I found easily available in list form with a google search:

If you had all the #2 picks from 2005-2019, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
Durant
Morant
Ingram
Aldridge
L.Ball
Oladipo
D.Russell
MKG
Assuming everyone is in their prime at the same time, that team would be title favorites, particularly if they traded one guard for a big to balance their roster

If you had all the #3 picks from 2005-2019, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
Luka
Embiid
Tatum
Harden
J.Brown
Horford
Beal
Porter
That's the greatest team of all time.

If you had all the #9, #16 and #28 picks, your top 8 rotation would look like this:
G.Hayward
Derozan
J.Noah
K.Walker
Drummond
Vucevic
Rozier
Poole
That's a 2nd round playoff team.

Although if you went from like the late 1990s to the 2000s - the #9 pick would yield players like

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, Andre Iguodala, Amare Stoudemire. It looks like the #9 pick had greater value when high school players made the jump to the NBA for whatever the reason.

But yeah, it looks like the #9 pick doesn't capture the same value.

I would consider a trade if someone slips drastically (ie Paul Pierce, Caron Butler, Stoudemire in their respective drafts) that one would identify as a top talent.

[AFM]

I'm running a multi variate analysis of a quad-core exponential regression in matlab on all draft data since the league's inception. We will finally be able to put this issue to rest. Will respond with more later.

[Dat2U]

I’m not sure that works, PIF. Significantly more “hindsight” players are available from 9 and so on. You would have to give the best player of each draft to the 2nd pick in that hypothetical scenario, no? I need to think about this more.

To your last point- I have no idea. The entire league thought Cade Cunningham was the next Doncic and a generational prospect, he has been pretty bad so far. I was very clear about my opinion on him, didn’t think he would be good. I can say the same about Jalen Green and my opinion about him, Jaden Ivey as well. I know it’s a bit early on all of them. Point is, the entire league consensus can be very wrong. It’s quite common.

Do a giant historical analysis of each pick slot in the draft over the last 15 years. There is not THAT big of a gap in terms of future production between picks 1-30, as you know. Seems pretty obvious to me that on average, you want 9+16+28 over 2. But again, I am making the case for this year in particular as well.

The best exercise and thought process IMO, is simply comparing the actual picks at 2 Vs 9/16/28 over a large sample. That is pretty close like you said, add in a personal view of this draft in particular and specific players available at the 9/16/28 slots.

But of course it’s all hypothetical. I don’t prefer to look at everything through the “what will the wizards do” lens. They would of course pick Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Jan Vesely, and Trevor Booker.

Both you & payit are guilty of this.

Coming to incredibly harsh conclusions on 1st & 2nd year guys who were forced into primary 1st & 2nd option roles while singing the praises about a 4th & 5th option who has NO offensive role other than setting screens, rolling to the rim & cleaning the glass is absolutely wild. Its the height of lumacy and a complete missuse of advanced statistics.

Of course the high usage rookies struggle. You would have trashed LeBron as a rookie because his TS was .488 and he had a negative DBPM. But their offensive responsibility blows away these low usage small roles guys so of course they are going to have some struggles. You don't hold a 1st/2nd year guy in their late teens/early 20s to the same standard you would a vet. That makes no sense. You expect there will be some growing pains and they'll improve each year.

[Dat2U]

Circling back to Brice Sensabaugh who popped on my radar early on. I think he'll be negative defender but I also think he's got a complete bag offensively
and is an effective scorer at all 3 levels. Tight handle with a nice assortment of moves to get to his spots and he's as good as any shooter in the draft.

Around the 9th/10th pick, you won't do much better than a guy who's walking bucket despite his faults. He'd step in Kuz's 3rd option role and probably puts up solid, efficient numbers.

I like Jett Howard for his shot creation skills as well. You gotta really like the guard-like handle, craftiness and body control in a 6-8 frame. Needs to get tougher and grab some rebounds but its easy to envision him suceeding in a tiertary role as shot creator as well as being a knockdown shooter.

My pick at 8 or 9 at this stage is certainly one of either Hendricks, Dick, Sensabaugh or Howard.

[NatP4]

No one is comparing Otto Porter Jr to Cade Cunningham/Jaden Ivey.

I’m talking about players taken in the same draft(s) that are more or less the same age, also playing for rebuilding teams, and shouldering solid usage. Josh Giddey, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner.

It is still early, but whenever it stops being “too early to call it”, people don’t wanna talk about it anymore or circle back. Suggs is an infinitely better player than Cunningham. Not even close. Why doesn’t anyone wanna reflect on that? Cunningham looks like the second coming of Evan Turner despite being the consensus #1. Suggs is on his way to becoming an elite impact top guard in the NBA.

NOONE out there had Jonathan Kuminga or Jalen Green below Franz Wagner or Josh Giddey. Not a single person. How does that look now? The rockets are looking to dump Green reportedly. Major net negative in year 2.

[NatP4]

The point isn’t about who was right/wrong about what. Not about taking a message board personal. It’s that the league can have a consensus that is completely wrong. It happens often.

[DCZards]

By the end of his rookie season, Cunningham was showing that he has the potential to be a special (and versatile) NBA player.

He played all of 12 games last season.

I suggest we hold off on judging Cade as if he’s a finished product.

[NatP4]

By the end of his rookie season, Cunningham was showing that he has the potential to be a special (and versatile) NBA player.

He played all of 12 games last season.

I suggest we hold off on judging Cade as if he’s a finished product.

Judging him as a finished product? No.

Is Jalen Suggs a better player than him? Yes.

If you are a NBA GM, and it is your job to constantly be evaluating your roster and players for future decisions/contracts, it’s going to require some level of honesty about what Cunningham has or has not shown in 2500 minutes in the NBA. Same goes for every player.

It’s not about confirming your predictions on a message board from a year or two ago, that leads to endlessly defending certain players, and immediately writing off a guy like Johnny Davis, who is the exact same age as Cunningham.

[payitforward]

I’m not sure that works, PIF. Significantly more “hindsight” players are available from 9 and so on. You would have to give the best player of each draft to the 2nd pick in that hypothetical scenario, no? I need to think about this more.

To your last point- I have no idea. The entire league thought Cade Cunningham was the next Doncic and a generational prospect, he has been pretty bad so far. I was very clear about my opinion on him, didn’t think he would be good. I can say the same about Jalen Green and my opinion about him, Jaden Ivey as well. I know it’s a bit early on all of them. Point is, the entire league consensus can be very wrong. It’s quite common.

Do a giant historical analysis of each pick slot in the draft over the last 15 years. There is not THAT big of a gap in terms of future production between picks 1-30, as you know. Seems pretty obvious to me that on average, you want 9+16+28 over 2. But again, I am making the case for this year in particular as well.

The best exercise and thought process IMO, is simply comparing the actual picks at 2 Vs 9/16/28 over a large sample. That is pretty close like you said, add in a personal view of this draft in particular and specific players available at the 9/16/28 slots.

But of course it’s all hypothetical. I don’t prefer to look at everything through the “what will the wizards do” lens. They would of course pick Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton, Jan Vesely, and Trevor Booker.

Both you & payit are guilty of this.

Coming to incredibly harsh conclusions on 1st & 2nd year guys who were forced into primary 1st & 2nd option roles while singing the praises about a 4th & 5th option who has NO offensive role other than setting screens, rolling to the rim & cleaning the glass is absolutely wild. Its the height of lumacy and a complete missuse of advanced statistics.

Of course the high usage rookies struggle. You would have trashed LeBron as a rookie because his TS was .488 and he had a negative DBPM. But their offensive responsibility blows away these low usage small roles guys so of course they are going to have some struggles. You don't hold a 1st/2nd year guy in their late teens/early 20s to the same standard you would a vet. That makes no sense. You expect there will be some growing pains and they'll improve each year.

I agree with every word of this, & I'm not sure how the critique applies to me. Do you maybe mean my opining that Banchero really didn't deserve RoY? Kind of a stretch to call that "incredibly harsh," no? Anyway, the guy I most liked for the award, Jalen Williams, wasn't "a 4th & 5th option."

Above all, you are certainly right that if you give a rookie major offensive responsibility for the team, it's no surprise if he struggles -- even Lebron did, as you point out. OTOH, it's ok to point to the numbers; it's normal.