2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[Dalek]

JHS and Maxwell Lewis.

I think Edey is a solid early to mid 2nd rounder. He also doesn't fit in that group being the best player in college basketball by a decent margin.

Also, Amen Thompson is absolutely worth a 1st round pick as a gamble, I just happen to think it's in the 20-30 range.

You do realize that LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey all shot poorly prior to coming to the NBA. With Amen Thompson, you are talking about a bigger Ja Morant.

No normal prospect has this level of body control and handle at 6'7:

Read on Twitter

Look at the creativity with the ball:

Read on Twitter

I'd consider Amen the second pick in the draft or at least 2b to Scoot's 2a. Loads of talented guards improve their shot with NBA training: Lonzo shot 42% from three last season; Lamelo shot 38%; Giddey made a near 10% improvement in this three point shot last season. Amen even without a great jumper is going to kill on ball screens.

We differ greatly in our approaches to scouting, I strongly disagree with most of the players you've hyped up in this thread.

Sure, that is going to happen. The draft process is rarely about everyone agreeing on players but saying a consensus top five pick as DND is a bold take.

I know as a Canadian I don't live in the US and don't get to go to see these non-college games and see these players up close - but Amen Thompson is a huge name the US and scouts/draft people have the twins in the top tier of athletes/ball handlers/passers in the draft. These are well-known players and not hiding under a rock like Dragan Bender.

[Dalek]

Lamelo and Giddey were playing against men in pro leagues though. The Thompson twins were competing against very poor, very young competition.

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

They also have the biggest bust potential. Elite athleticism can only carry you so far, guys like Josh Jackson, Fultz and Bagley were also consensus top picks.

It isn't just athleticism. They are both incredible passers and can defend - at least have shown the instincts and footwork to be very good defenders. With the slashing skill and top tier athleticism you can sort of overlook the less than perfect outside shot - like everyone did with Ja Morant.

[Yallbecrazy]

Lamelo and Giddey were playing against men in pro leagues though. The Thompson twins were competing against very poor, very young competition.

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

The issue with many of the main draft analysts is they follow these guys for several years in high school and then tweak their rankings based on college production. If they rank a guy 3rd as a senior in high school and another guy 80th, but that 80th guy outperforms the 3rd ranked guy as a NCAA freshman by a small, yet significant amount they will never switch up and put the 80th guy ahead of their #3 guy.
You can follow a player for a while, but vastly more weight needs to be put on recent, more accurate data (higher competition). There's a lot of noise in shooting, so 3pt% and ft% in high school should be given a lot of weight in many circumstances. Shot creation and rim finishing should not since the HS data is irrelevant compared to NCAA data.

Cade was their #1 by a good margin and then Mobley went out and was significantly better in college, but Cade was still really good so they kept him @ #1 despite it being so obvious that Mobley was the better prospect.

Dean on Draft has written some really dumb things, he's apparently very socially awkward (think he has Aspergers) , but he opened my eyes after crushing the 2014 draft, and he's written a lot of good articles on what the consensus gets wrong and why. He's also improved himself over the years with experience and the 2021 draft was probably his finest work. He's done a lot better at predicting outcomes than the copypasta these other draft sites spit out.

[WuTang_CMB]

Is the combine next week?

I'm really interested to see a lot of these guys measurements, specifically wingspan and barefoot height

starts on tuesday

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I like the Thompson twins. I think they both have a place in the NBA. In what capacity I do not know, but they both defend and pass so that alone will allow them to fit into a team structure. Their handles are tighter and more advanced than many current NBA players their size as is their footwork and finishing ability. Again, these aren't Joey Graham types who are athletes playing basketball, they can both ball the f out.

I think anyone claiming they know for a fact they will be all-stars or bust are extremists. We don't really know for certain what's going to be but I think they are worth drafting quite high, certainly not at the end of the 1st as some have suggested.

These kids are both in some small capacity like the basketball versions of Michael Vick coming out of VTech.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

They also have the biggest bust potential. Elite athleticism can only carry you so far, guys like Josh Jackson, Fultz and Bagley were also consensus top picks.

It isn't just athleticism. They are both incredible passers and can defend - at least have shown the instincts and footwork to be very good defenders. With the slashing skill and top tier athleticism you can sort of overlook the less than perfect outside shot - like everyone did with Ja Morant.

I'm with you on this Dalek. It's a tough call but if I was forced to really come to a determination at this moment regarding both of them I think they are NBA players.

[KL78192020]

They also have the biggest bust potential. Elite athleticism can only carry you so far, guys like Josh Jackson, Fultz and Bagley were also consensus top picks.

It isn't just athleticism. They are both incredible passers and can defend - at least have shown the instincts and footwork to be very good defenders. With the slashing skill and top tier athleticism you can sort of overlook the less than perfect outside shot - like everyone did with Ja Morant.

I'm with you on this Dalek. It's a tough call but if I was forced to really come to a determination at this moment regarding both of them I think they are NBA players.

Out of the top players who do you think has the biggest bust potential? I'm sure I could be completely wrong, but if I had to pick, I'd pick them. Should be intereting to see how they do, I hope they do well.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Lamelo and Giddey were playing against men in pro leagues though. The Thompson twins were competing against very poor, very young competition.

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

The issue with many of the main draft analysts is they follow these guys for several years in high school and then tweak their rankings based on college production. If they rank a guy 3rd as a senior in high school and another guy 80th, but that 80th guy outperforms the 3rd ranked guy as a NCAA freshman by a small, yet significant amount they will never switch up and put the 80th guy ahead of their #3 guy.
You can follow a player for a while, but vastly more weight needs to be put on recent, more accurate data (higher competition). There's a lot of noise in shooting, so 3pt% and ft% in high school should be given a lot of weight in many circumstances. Shot creation and rim finishing should not since the HS data is irrelevant compared to NCAA data.

Cade was their #1 by a good margin and then Mobley went out and was significantly better in college, but Cade was still really good so they kept him @ #1 despite it being so obvious that Mobley was the better prospect.

Dean on Draft has written some really dumb things, he's apparently very socially awkward (think he has Aspergers) , but he opened my eyes after crushing the 2014 draft, and he's written a lot of good articles on what the consensus gets wrong and why. He's also improved himself over the years with experience and the 2021 draft was probably his finest work. He's done a lot better at predicting outcomes than the copypasta these other draft sites spit out.

There's more sites and places to visit now than ever. I listen to a little of it here and there and recently the no ceilings guys were openly pleading for a prospect to speak to them. Their content comes first, but it seems like you get into issues of access journalism.

[Psubs]

Lamelo and Giddey were playing against men in pro leagues though. The Thompson twins were competing against very poor, very young competition.

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

They also have the biggest bust potential. Elite athleticism can only carry you so far, guys like Josh Jackson, Stromile Swift, Fultz and Bagley were also consensus top picks.

Casius Stanley
Kendall Brown

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

It isn't just athleticism. They are both incredible passers and can defend - at least have shown the instincts and footwork to be very good defenders. With the slashing skill and top tier athleticism you can sort of overlook the less than perfect outside shot - like everyone did with Ja Morant.

I'm with you on this Dalek. It's a tough call but if I was forced to really come to a determination at this moment regarding both of them I think they are NBA players.

Out of the top players who do you think has the biggest bust potential? I'm sure I could be completely wrong, but if I had to pick, I'd pick them. Should be intereting to see how they do, I hope they do well.

I mean there's risk but I think the risk is being a little overblown and is more related to their ceilings as shooters and/or mental traits and not that they're absolute garbage basketball players who will instantly fail and look awful when put against better competition.

[Yallbecrazy]

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

They also have the biggest bust potential. Elite athleticism can only carry you so far, guys like Josh Jackson, Stromile Swift, Fultz and Bagley were also consensus top picks.

Casius Stanley
Kendall Brown

Read on Twitter

They are mystery boxes, but I definitely have Podz ahead of both of them and by quite a bit.

[OakleyDokely]

I'm always leery of the prospects who take the path of least resistance.

Given the Thompson's twins age and competition, they should have absolutely dominated this year, but they didn't. Asur I think posted a 56 TS%, which is pretty disappointing given the competition. Amen was a little better, but I don't think either did enough to warrant being rated as two of the top prospects in the entire draft.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Watch on YouTube

Kid doing these videos is pretty smart

[Yallbecrazy]

I found another Thompson twin highlight video:

Watch on YouTube

I never said they were DND, they are mystery boxes with potential and I would take them in the 20-30 range in this draft.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I found another Thompson twin highlight video:

Watch on YouTube

Funny vid but do you know for a fact what would happen if you were to put them in NBA scrimmages against other 20 year old players? Would the handles and finishing and defense and passing just suddenly disappear?

[Yallbecrazy]

I found another Thompson twin highlight video:

Watch on YouTube

Funny vid but do you know for a fact what would happen if you were to put them in NBA scrimmages against other 20 year old players? Would the handles and finishing and defense and passing just suddenly disappear?

I have to think there's a reason they / their handlers dodged legit competition. I also think that a top NBA prospect should have dominated that league more than they did. I also look at the success rates of many top 3-10 RSCI guys in past years and factor in that the ones who could shoot made up the majority of the relatively small pool of those highly ranked guys which had success in the NBA.

I see them as less likely to succeed in the NBA than the average 3-10 RSCI player and thus I think there's a >75% chance they don't become NBA rotation players. Since they are athletic mystery boxes I do think there are outcomes where they do find some success and realistic ones where they become all stars too, but relative to other prospects who have proved themselves against superior competition I feel they belong toward the end of the first round in this draft as boom/but more likely bust picks.

edit: At least they don't have the Nick Smith Jr. aura of a high RSCI guy who then was terrible against better competition.

[billy_hoyle]

Lamelo and Giddey were playing against men in pro leagues though. The Thompson twins were competing against very poor, very young competition.

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

The issue with many of the main draft analysts is they follow these guys for several years in high school and then tweak their rankings based on college production. If they rank a guy 3rd as a senior in high school and another guy 80th, but that 80th guy outperforms the 3rd ranked guy as a NCAA freshman by a small, yet significant amount they will never switch up and put the 80th guy ahead of their #3 guy.
You can follow a player for a while, but vastly more weight needs to be put on recent, more accurate data (higher competition). There's a lot of noise in shooting, so 3pt% and ft% in high school should be given a lot of weight in many circumstances. Shot creation and rim finishing should not since the HS data is irrelevant compared to NCAA data.

Cade was their #1 by a good margin and then Mobley went out and was significantly better in college, but Cade was still really good so they kept him @ #1 despite it being so obvious that Mobley was the better prospect.

Dean on Draft has written some really dumb things, he's apparently very socially awkward (think he has Aspergers) , but he opened my eyes after crushing the 2014 draft, and he's written a lot of good articles on what the consensus gets wrong and why. He's also improved himself over the years with experience and the 2021 draft was probably his finest work. He's done a lot better at predicting outcomes than the copypasta these other draft sites spit out.

What exactly has changed for the Thompson Twins. How are you comparing their latest data points (Ignite vs NCAA)? That's precisely the issue. The eye test is top 5 in the draft with these two.

I think you absolutely need to take into account what happened before the latest data point. Would Scottie have even been considered a top 10 pick based on his FSU 6th man freshman season? I think his previous high school experience made a massive impact in Masai et al.

[Dalek]

It isn't just athleticism. They are both incredible passers and can defend - at least have shown the instincts and footwork to be very good defenders. With the slashing skill and top tier athleticism you can sort of overlook the less than perfect outside shot - like everyone did with Ja Morant.

I'm with you on this Dalek. It's a tough call but if I was forced to really come to a determination at this moment regarding both of them I think they are NBA players.

Out of the top players who do you think has the biggest bust potential? I'm sure I could be completely wrong, but if I had to pick, I'd pick them. Should be intereting to see how they do, I hope they do well.

For me it us Cam Whitmore. Nice size and good athlete but I don't know what he does well and he has really low assist rates.

NSJ is there as well because of his injuries and frame. Not a strong enough athlete to make me believe.

[Yallbecrazy]

Regardless of comps the twins athleticism is top-tier. The NBA fixes shots especially with highly talented players.

I think scout/draft guys like Givony and Schmidt have Amen in the top 5 at least so I am going to lean with the consensus and my eye test on this one.

The issue with many of the main draft analysts is they follow these guys for several years in high school and then tweak their rankings based on college production. If they rank a guy 3rd as a senior in high school and another guy 80th, but that 80th guy outperforms the 3rd ranked guy as a NCAA freshman by a small, yet significant amount they will never switch up and put the 80th guy ahead of their #3 guy.
You can follow a player for a while, but vastly more weight needs to be put on recent, more accurate data (higher competition). There's a lot of noise in shooting, so 3pt% and ft% in high school should be given a lot of weight in many circumstances. Shot creation and rim finishing should not since the HS data is irrelevant compared to NCAA data.

Cade was their #1 by a good margin and then Mobley went out and was significantly better in college, but Cade was still really good so they kept him @ #1 despite it being so obvious that Mobley was the better prospect.

Dean on Draft has written some really dumb things, he's apparently very socially awkward (think he has Aspergers) , but he opened my eyes after crushing the 2014 draft, and he's written a lot of good articles on what the consensus gets wrong and why. He's also improved himself over the years with experience and the 2021 draft was probably his finest work. He's done a lot better at predicting outcomes than the copypasta these other draft sites spit out.

What exactly has changed for the Thompson Twins. How are you comparing their latest data points (Ignite vs NCAA)? That's precisely the issue. The eye test is top 5 in the draft with these two.

I think you absolutely need to take into account what happened before the latest data point. Would Scottie have even been considered a top 10 pick based on his FSU 6th man freshman season? I think his previous high school experience made a massive impact in Masai et al.

In terms of what has changed for the twins, scroll up to the post one above yours.

Scottie Barnes put up great numbers in college, he wasn't a mystery box. He had a similar BPM as Cade, but had better numbers in the box score stats that project well to NBA success:
assists to turnovers, stocks, and oRB%.

[bboyskinnylegs]

I feel like evaluating prospects is becoming harder now with varying levels of competition that prospects play in. NCAA, OTE, Ignite, various pro leagues in different countries, guys who sit out the year and haven't been seen since high school, etc. Plus factoring in how some prospects perform at the youth national level.