The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[TGW]

The bar is so low for Davis, if he gets to even replacement level next season, that would be miraculous.

Davis starting over Morris this upcoming season isn't going to be hard to do.

Uh what? Monte Morris is head and shoulders better than Davis. Davis would be most improved player of the year if he managed to be as good as Morris was last year.

[Rafael122]

Ausar Thompson canceled his workout with the Pacers, so it's a good bet he's going top 6.

[NatP4]

Bet that’s Ausar to Orlando.

Best guess as of now:

Wemby
Scoot
Miller
Amen
Whitmore
Ausar
Walker

We pick from Black, Wallace, Hendricks, Dick, Coulibaly

[joshuacf]

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Any guesses as to what his vertical is? I'd guess somewhere around 35-36 inches.

[AFM]

Looks more like 37 to me. TSW/Kev Broom has him as "easily the 2nd best prospect" in the draft. I'd like to hear someone like Dat or really anyone else explain why they aren't as sold on him as Kevin is.

[joshuacf]

I'll take a stab at it:

1. More turnovers than assists, which I see used against Whitmore all the time. I'd be interested to hear someone, maybe NatP4, explain why this is big red flag in Whitmore but not in Bilal.

2. Not overly productive in the Pro League. 6 points 3 rebounds 1 assist doesn't jump off the page to me.

3. Not a good 3-point shooter on volume in the U-21 League. He was better in the Pro League, but that was on very limited volume. On real volume in the U-21 league, he shot 32.4% from 3.

That's pretty much it. I think he's a lottery pick. It's insane to me to put him over Miller or Scoot.

[NatP4]

Whitmore averaged twice as many turnovers as assists playing college basketball. 2.1 turnovers to 1 assist per 36. 19 assists to 42 turnovers.

Between u21&pro club, Coulibaly has 75 assists and 82 turnovers.

That’s a pretty big difference when factoring in level of competition.

[NatP4]

Watch on YouTube

[joshuacf]

Whitmore averaged twice as many turnovers as assists playing college basketball. 2.1 turnovers to 1 assist per 36. 19 assists to 42 turnovers.

Between u21&pro club, Coulibaly has 75 assists and 82 turnovers.

That’s a pretty big difference when factoring in level of competition.

Wait, are you saying France's U-21 league is better than the Big East? Because that's obviously not true.

In U-21, Bilal had 40 assists and 45 turnovers. So even when playing low-level competition, he still had a <1 A/T ratio.

Significant red flag for Bilal I think.

[joshuacf]

Watch on YouTube

Didn't you deride people for watching Taylor Hendricks highlights? Highlights don't tell us the full story, I thought.

[NatP4]

Whitmore averaged twice as many turnovers as assists playing college basketball. 2.1 turnovers to 1 assist per 36. 19 assists to 42 turnovers.

Between u21&pro club, Coulibaly has 75 assists and 82 turnovers.

That’s a pretty big difference when factoring in level of competition.

Wait, are you saying France's U-21 league is better than the Big East? Because that's obviously not true.

In U-21, Bilal had 40 assists and 45 turnovers. So even when playing low-level competition, he still had a <1 A/T ratio.

Significant red flag for Bilal I think.

In 488 minutes playing professional basketball with Metro 92, Coulibaly had 22 assists and 25 turnovers.

In 700 minutes playing for Villanova, Whitmore had 19 assists and 42 turnovers.

Keep trying

[joshuacf]

Whitmore averaged twice as many turnovers as assists playing college basketball. 2.1 turnovers to 1 assist per 36. 19 assists to 42 turnovers.

Between u21&pro club, Coulibaly has 75 assists and 82 turnovers.

That’s a pretty big difference when factoring in level of competition.

Wait, are you saying France's U-21 league is better than the Big East? Because that's obviously not true.

In U-21, Bilal had 40 assists and 45 turnovers. So even when playing low-level competition, he still had a <1 A/T ratio.

Significant red flag for Bilal I think.

In 488 minutes playing professional basketball with Metro 92, Coulibaly had 22 assists and 25 turnovers.

In 700 minutes playing for Villanova, Whitmore had 19 assists and 42 turnovers.

Keep trying

I've got to give you credit. I've never seen someone flip-flop as much as you do.

Highlights are bad! But here's Bilal's highlights.
Whitmore has no awareness! But Bilal having a <1 A/T is fine.

Whitmore playing in Big East had an A/T of 0.45.
Bilal playing in the U-21 France League had an A/T of 0.88.

Bilal in the U-21 France League is playing inferior competition to Whitmore in the Big East.

Because Bilal had a sub-1 A/T in both the Pro and the U-21 League, it is clear that it isn't the level of play in the Pro League that is causing the problems, and he has actual Basketball IQ and awareness concerns.

But of course, you'll never say that, because you aren't actually objectively looking at these players. You're deciding who you like and who you don't, and then from there picking the information that fits your preconceptions and discarding the information that doesn't.

It's a classic example of Confirmation Bias.

[NatP4]

I guess if that’s the conclusion you want to draw based on Coulibaly’s .91 A/TO between U21&Pro ball “actual Basketball IQ and awareness concerns”, then what does that say about Whitmore’s .45 A/TO playing NCAA?

It would be nice if you could dial it back and take things less personally. I mean I literally just posted the actual stats, how can that possibly get you so worked up?

[payitforward]

Since I'm usually in the middle of these back & forth flings, I allow myself to be amused by one where I'm not implicated!

These are all very gifted basketball prospects. If it were possible to truly prioritize them in some truly meaningful order, why then the order of picks would not be so utterly dissimilar to the order of how good players actually turn out to be.

But it is. Oh it is.
To take a random draft, the best player out of the 2020 draft went at #12. The 8 best players out of that draft also included the guys picked at 30, 35, 52, 18, 25 & 21 -- whereas exactly one of the top 10 picks has been outstanding (Lamelo -- at 3).

& it's like that every single year. Hence, debating between Whitmore & Coulabily as NBA players (which neither of them yet is) -- either potential or from any other angle -- is essentially meaningless.

[joshuacf]

I'm just pointing out how your methodology in evaluating players is inconsistent. I'm not taking anything personally. But when I'm discussing a player with someone and I find their reasoning or logic to be flawed, I'm going to point out as much.

In regards to Whitmore's A/TO, the 0.45 A/TO in the Big East is certainly cause for concern. As is the 0.89 A/TO in U-21 games and the 0.91 A/TO overall for Bilal.

In regards to what makes Whitmore a better prospect than Sensebaugh, I assume you aren't familiar with Whitmore and don't know that he and Sensebaugh are in different stratospheres athletically. Whitmore had a 40.5-inch vertical at the combine, is very strong, and has a nice first step.

[NatP4]

It’s a silly straw man, obviously.

0.91 A/TO in the French pro league is significantly better than 0.45 A/TO in the NCAA. This is just obvious.

Also: Whitmore’s A/TO ratio is not the only factor that makes him a red flag of a prospect, being an average to below average defender, the lack of volume of assists as a wing prospect, the mediocre 3pt %, and the general lack of productivity across the board, is what makes him a red flag prospect. He’s a tunnel vision scorer, that’s about it.

Coulibaly doesn’t have a great A/TO, but he has a much better assist rate, and is playing significantly tougher competition. Also does a million things well outside of the playmaking. Highly efficient, developing shooter, elite defender, that guards 1-5, gets steals and blocks, elite in transition/finishing, gets to the free throw line at a high rate, good rebounder.

I’m done with this conversation. We’ll see in a few years.

[machu46]

Looks more like 37 to me. TSW/Kev Broom has him as "easily the 2nd best prospect" in the draft. I'd like to hear someone like Dat or really anyone else explain why they aren't as sold on him as Kevin is.

To me, Coulibaly is a late first round prospect (i think like 21 or 22 on my big board). I’m just not really trying to take guys as passive as he’s been with the pro team all that early in a draft. Pretty much everything is small sample sizes with him due to limited playing time and or just not being aggressive with his playing time. He’s basically just a kid with a great frame and athleticism that you’re hoping learns how to play basketball. I get the allure but it’s just not my cup of tea personally.

Ultimately this draft gets really weird once you get past the top 12 IMO and particularly once you get outside the top 20. I think he’s worth rolling the dice there. I won’t blame people for taking him in the 12-20 range but like I said, it just isn’t my cup of tea.

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[Kanyewest]

Looks more like 37 to me. TSW/Kev Broom has him as "easily the 2nd best prospect" in the draft. I'd like to hear someone like Dat or really anyone else explain why they aren't as sold on him as Kevin is.

One possible weakness in the model could be that it may inflate a players value on a really good team. For instance, in the 2020 NBA draft, YODA had Jalen Suggs at #1 and Corey Kispert at #7 and Joel Ayayi at #15. It may overvalue team success and Bilal did get to play with Victor. Players on lesser teams may be undervalued. Overall having any model or forecasting is difficult as PIF alludes to.

[joshuacf]

Looks more like 37 to me. TSW/Kev Broom has him as "easily the 2nd best prospect" in the draft. I'd like to hear someone like Dat or really anyone else explain why they aren't as sold on him as Kevin is.

To me, Coulibaly is a late first round prospect (i think like 21 or 22 on my big board). I’m just not really trying to take guys as passive as he’s been with the pro team all that early in a draft. Pretty much everything is small sample sizes with him due to limited playing time and or just not being aggressive with his playing time. He’s basically just a kid with a great frame and athleticism that you’re hoping learns how to play basketball. I get the allure but it’s just not my cup of tea personally.

Ultimately this draft gets really weird once you get past the top 12 IMO and particularly once you get outside the top 20. I think he’s worth rolling the dice there. I won’t blame people for taking him in the 12-20 range but like I said, it just isn’t my cup of tea.

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Another thing I noticed; in the Pro League, Bilal has a .609 FT%. Big Yikes.

It's a significant dropoff from his U-21 numbers. 64 Pro League free throws is not a tiny sample size either.

I think it has to do with the U-21 games being played in an empty gym, and the Pro League games being in front of big crowds. Struggles with the crowd noise perhaps?

The fact that his FT% is so much lower in the Pro League is concerning to me. You have to be able to tune out the noise when taking Free Throws in the NBA. Or maybe it just has to do with the moment being bigger in the Pro League vs. the U-21 League.

Whatever the reason is, it's somewhat of a red flag to me.

[TGW]

The thing about YODA is that it also doesn’t account for the team a player is going to. Johnny Davis on the Lakers or Spurs may be a whole different looking rookie than on the Wizards. I guarantee Devin Vassell wouldn’t look quite as good if he were a Wizard. Some teams are just better at developing young talent.