2023 NBA Draft Thread 4

[RookieStar]

I wouldn't rule out Hendricks personally.
I know forward isn't the biggest need in the world, but Hendricks looks the part of a low-usage, high-impact 3&D guy, and the backup forward situation is pretty awful.
Isaac is always injured, Okeke hasn't improved.

Hendricks would provide shooting, rim protection, and a solid defensive base for the bench.

I know it's illogical to draft a reserve at #6 overall, but it would fill a huge need for this team, and he would still probably be a BPA pick.

If, however, the team knows Fultz's shooting is always going to be an issue, and if they're not sold on Cole or Suggs longterm, then drafting a combo guard or PG makes sense at that position.

Enter Black, Wallace, Bufkin.

I would be ok with Hendricks at 6. However, if DET is smart, they take him cuz he answers both talent and need for them.

[SOUL]

I would be ok with Hendricks at 6. However, if DET is smart, they take him cuz he answers both talent and need for them.

Heard their GM say they're going for a "home run" pick and Hendricks seems more like a safe play, even though I think people underrate "high floor" players as not having a good ceiling.

[RookieStar]

I would be ok with Hendricks at 6. However, if DET is smart, they take him cuz he answers both talent and need for them.

Heard their GM say they're going for a "home run" pick and Hendricks seems more like a safe play, even though I think people underrate "high floor" players as not having a good ceiling.

This time of the draft there are more smoke blowing in the league than there is in the UKR-RUS battlefield.

Hendricks is one of the players that makes too much sense for them. Although, who can say how their GMs operate.

[Skybox]

Did any of you catch the Lock’d On Mock Draft?

The guy running the Magic took Grady Dick at #6, then traded #11 + Okeke to NY for Hartlestein and a future 2nd, saying he wanted to clear roster spots for vet free agents.

Reactions?

PRR (the Lock'd on Magic Host) is a joke. Nobody takes him seriously.

he's a clown but I'm so hungry for content I'll tune in. Kudos to anyone who can speak authoritatively for an hour everyday without anything of value to build on. Seriously, that can't be easy and (obviously) there are no credentials required, just willingness and confidence (which may or may not be based on any facts )...definitely deserves the modern title of "content creator".

[eyriq]

Did any of you catch the Lock’d On Mock Draft?

The guy running the Magic took Grady Dick at #6, then traded #11 + Okeke to NY for Hartlestein and a future 2nd, saying he wanted to clear roster spots for vet free agents.

Reactions?

PRR (the Lock'd on Magic Host) is a joke. Nobody takes him seriously.

he's a clown but I'm so hungry for content I'll tune in. Kudos to anyone who can speak authoritatively for an hour everyday without anything of value to build on. Seriously, that can't be easy and (obviously) there are no credentials required, just willingness and confidence (which may or may not be based on any facts )...definitely deserves the modern title of "content creator".

Yeah, he's got some tenacity to him, I'll give him that.

[drsd]

ESPN maths for All-star percentage:

ESPN link

Look at the link, as bust potential is also a metric. Example: Wembanyama is not the most sure thing (4%) as Henderson screwed as a higher floor on bust potential (3%)

Maths don't lie. This is a really interesting read.

The top players all-star probability:
Victor Wembanyama 55%
Scoot Henderson 40%
Jarace Walker 39%
Brandon Miller 37%
Taylor Hendricks 33%
Ausar Thompson 34%
Amen Thompson 35%
Cam Whitmore 34%
Anthony Black 32%
Noah Clowney 22%
Gradey Dick 25%
Dereck Lively 21%
Jett Howard 16%
Brice Sensabaugh 14%
Jalen Hood-Schifino 16%
Kobe Bufkin 14%
Cason Wallace 17%
Jordan Hawkins 16%
Keyonte George 16%

As Orlando should ONLY be thinking BPA at 6, that means it should only be a consideration between:
Brandon Miller
Taylor Hendricks
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Anthony Black

That supports the logic on NOT-taking Dick at six.

Leonard Miller also was horrible in these metrics.

..

[thelead]

I would be ok with Hendricks at 6. However, if DET is smart, they take him cuz he answers both talent and need for them.

Heard their GM say they're going for a "home run" pick and Hendricks seems more like a safe play, even though I think people underrate "high floor" players as not having a good ceiling.

I would bet that they take a swing on Ausar.

[shrink]

Did any of you catch the Lock’d On Mock Draft?

The guy running the Magic took Grady Dick at #6, then traded #11 + Okeke to NY for Hartlestein and a future 2nd, saying he wanted to clear roster spots for vet free agents.

Reactions?

PRR (the Lock'd on Magic Host) is a joke. Nobody takes him seriously.

he's a clown but I'm so hungry for content I'll tune in. Kudos to anyone who can speak authoritatively for an hour everyday without anything of value to build on. Seriously, that can't be easy and (obviously) there are no credentials required, just willingness and confidence (which may or may not be based on any facts )...definitely deserves the modern title of "content creator".

My guy (MIN) hosted the GSW guy, and was astonished that he couldn’t get him to accept his “perfect KAT trade” of expensive Jordan Poole, Kuminga, and a couple late 1sts. I talked it over with a few GSW posters, and they were like you guys, “yeah, our Lock’d on guy is horrible.” I never liked the MIN guy, because he is admittedly bad with the CBA stuff, and that’s like fingernails on a blackboard to me. But I realize I’m a unique kind of listener, and it sounds like we have one of the better ones.

Anyway, it just felt to me like your guy was throwing away assets. Grady Dick at #6 is way too early, especially since if you can’t get him at #11, I imagine you could offer next to nothing to move up to #10. The #6 should get you much more- obviously more than Hartlestein, and throwing away Okeke.

Anyway, I was shocked. I’m glad you guys see him for what he is. Good luck on draft day!

[MartinsIzAfraud]

I would be ok with Hendricks at 6. However, if DET is smart, they take him cuz he answers both talent and need for them.

Heard their GM say they're going for a "home run" pick and Hendricks seems more like a safe play, even though I think people underrate "high floor" players as not having a good ceiling.

I would bet that they take a swing on Ausar.

Hendricks is nice but he’s not changing your team that’s for sure. I hope this FO does the same thing even if it means having to ruffle the Guard feathers

[Skybox]

ESPN maths for All-star percentage:

ESPN link

Look at the link, as bust potential is also a metric. Example: Wembanyama is not the most sure thing (4%) as Henderson screwed as a higher floor on bust potential (3%)

Maths don't lie. This is a really interesting read.

The top players all-star probability:
Victor Wembanyama 55%
Scoot Henderson 40%
Jarace Walker 39%
Brandon Miller 37%
Taylor Hendricks 33%
Ausar Thompson 34%
Amen Thompson 35%
Cam Whitmore 34%
Anthony Black 32%
Noah Clowney 22%
Gradey Dick 25%
Dereck Lively 21%
Jett Howard 16%
Brice Sensabaugh 14%
Jalen Hood-Schifino 16%
Kobe Bufkin 14%
Cason Wallace 17%
Jordan Hawkins 16%
Keyonte George 16%

As Orlando should ONLY be thinking BPA at 6, that means it should only be a consideration between:
Brandon Miller
Taylor Hendricks
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Anthony Black

That supports the logic on NOT-taking Dick at six.

Leonard Miller also was horrible in these metrics.

..

Interesting list and I was just thinking today that Jarace Walker seems like a guy who might never be an All-Star, but whatever team he's on will suddenly win more games and other guys will look better than before...He's a (maybe better) WCJ clone, so it's a tough sell at #6, but I think he's likely BPA at 6 if DET is dumb enough to pass on him for a muscle-bound, too small, skill-free prospect to play out of position at 4 in Cam Whitmore. I'd be happy to have that big man depth and versatility, but I think a guy like Lively would be a better fit long-term...but BPA is BPA.

the twins are so intriguing...is Ausar a bigger, crazy athletic version of Suggs the day we draft him? I just have a really hard time reconciling 20 year old wing players who can't shoot FTs...that's really tough to look past, IMO.

I'm really hoping for a notable trade for a starter and a draft for depth with upside.

[Petre1978]

Watch on YouTube

Magic get Hendricks and Coulibaly

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Watch on YouTube

Magic get Hendricks and Coulibaly

That would be a pretty meh outcome

[VFX]

Watch on YouTube

Magic get Hendricks and Coulibaly

It would be an absolute tragedy to select Bilal over Bufkin in this position.

[eyriq]

ESPN maths for All-star percentage:

ESPN link

Look at the link, as bust potential is also a metric. Example: Wembanyama is not the most sure thing (4%) as Henderson screwed as a higher floor on bust potential (3%)

Maths don't lie. This is a really interesting read.

The top players all-star probability:
Victor Wembanyama 55%
Scoot Henderson 40%
Jarace Walker 39%
Brandon Miller 37%
Taylor Hendricks 33%
Ausar Thompson 34%
Amen Thompson 35%
Cam Whitmore 34%
Anthony Black 32%
Noah Clowney 22%
Gradey Dick 25%
Dereck Lively 21%
Jett Howard 16%
Brice Sensabaugh 14%
Jalen Hood-Schifino 16%
Kobe Bufkin 14%
Cason Wallace 17%
Jordan Hawkins 16%
Keyonte George 16%

As Orlando should ONLY be thinking BPA at 6, that means it should only be a consideration between:
Brandon Miller
Taylor Hendricks
Ausar Thompson
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Anthony Black

That supports the logic on NOT-taking Dick at six.

Leonard Miller also was horrible in these metrics.

..

Really interesting. If you just look at Boom to Bench/Bust ratio and break them into tiers you get an idea of the safest picks, according to these metrics.

Tier 1:
Wemby

Tier 2:
Walker
Hendricks
Scoot

Tier 3:
Amen
Black
Miller
Ausar
Whitmore
Gradey

[thelead]

Such a weird draft... Black could be the pick at 6... or he may be available at 11. Same with Hendricks.

[basketballRob]

Such a weird draft... Black could be the pick at 6... or he may be available at 11. Same with Hendricks.

Washington and Utah are rumored to want him. Utah is considering trading up to 5 to get him. If Detroit wants Hendricks, he could be there at 9.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[Magic#1]

Such a weird draft... Black could be the pick at 6... or he may be available at 11. Same with Hendricks.

This is why I'm so glad we got two lotto picks in this draft. The depth shows there are good quality players. Sure, there will be some busts, but we also have two opportunities to hit on a special player. That's exciting.

[eyriq]

I asked our old friend ChatGPT to place the players into tiers based on that ESPN Draft Projection Data.


-------------------------------------------------------


For the sake of meaningful tiering, I'll create five tiers based on the players' projected impact (RPM), overall ranking, and their chances of becoming an All-Star. Please note that these are simplified interpretations, and player potential can change dramatically based on various other factors.

Tier 1: Elite Prospects (Highest predicted RPM, top overall rankings, highest All-Star potential)
- Victor Wembanyama
- Scoot Henderson
- Jarace Walker

Tier 2: Strong Prospects (Positive predicted RPM, high overall rankings, strong All-Star potential)
- Brandon Miller
- Taylor Hendricks
- Ausar Thompson
- Amen Thompson

Tier 3: Solid Prospects (Around zero predicted RPM, mid overall rankings, moderate All-Star potential)
- Cam Whitmore
- Anthony Black
- Noah Clowney
- Gradey Dick
- Dereck Lively II

Tier 4: Risky Prospects (Negative predicted RPM, lower overall rankings, lower All-Star potential)
- Jett Howard
- Brice Sensabaugh
- Jalen Hood-Schifino
- Kobe Bufkin
- Cason Wallace
- Jordan Hawkins
- Keyonte George
- Nick Smith Jr.
- Dariq Whitehead
- Brandin Podziemski
- Colby Jones
- Bilal Coulibaly
- Julian Phillips

Tier 5: High-Risk Prospects (Lowest predicted RPM, bottom overall rankings, least All-Star potential)
- Gregory Jackson II
- Olivier-Maxence Prosper
- Rayan Rupert
- Amari Bailey
- James Nnaji

[thelead]

Such a weird draft... Black could be the pick at 6... or he may be available at 11. Same with Hendricks.

Washington and Utah are rumored to want him. Utah is considering trading up to 5 to get him. If Detroit wants Hendricks, he could be there at 9.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

There are rumors all over the place. Bilal could jump into the top 10. Lively is supposedly Dallas’ target at 10. Who knows how it all plays out. A guy like Cason could go 6 or he could go 14… and either way, it wouldn’t shock me.

[SOUL]

I wish I could remember how the past threads were in terms of people saying "I would HATE to end up with (Franz), (Sengun), (insert really good players from past drafts)". All I remember was there was 90% hype in getting Suggs and a lukewarm response to Franz, made even worse by his summer league.

I try not to make grand statements on 19-20 year olds. I have my preferences but my hit/miss rate is just like anybody's.