The Anthony Black Thread

[ARandomStranger]

I am fine with Anthony Black getting the bulk of the backup pg minutes this season, but in reality that means that Suggs should be the starting SG for this team starting right now. Harris needs to be let go and Fultz needs to play the season to see if he could be potential trade bait to improve us at the deadline if we are making the playoffs or to gather some assets if we aren't.

Edit: Also, Anthony Black was not my first pick to be here, but he is here. So I will give him a shot and not be down in the dumps because my guy didn't end up here.

[drsd]

So, given that we value organic growth, and given we have this culture of family where we go out of our way to put you in a position to succeed, and given we want rookies to earn their minutes, here is that I think happens with the backcourt.

1. Cole is traded to a place he can thrive this offseason
2. Fultz is retained and starts the season as our PG
3. Harris is traded to a place he can thrive this offseason
4. Jett and Black start off the season as backups

Fultz is chosen over Cole because he won the starting role last season

I would bet your house on all four of those things! (Maybe for point-3, G-Harris is simply released).

..

[VFX]

Because good GMs don’t let assets walk that they’ve sunk time and money into. Weltman isn’t making that decision to cut ties.

Let me give you this scenario. This is Fultz contract year and Orlando has three point guards on the roster. Now, do you think that’s a good idea given the fact that AB will need minutes and Cole will absolutely be fighting for minutes as well? No, That’s a terrible situation. Why? Because regardless of if Fultz has the same exact season as 2022-23, or he reaches the next level, they’ve already invested a #6 pick into AB. You cannot believe Fultz will make less money on this contract than his last with an uptick in production in year 6-7.

Yes, Orlando could let him walk. That will never happen if he posts better numbers in a contract year. The only way that happens is if he regresses significantly, which will not happen. You are fooling yourself if you think he isn’t being resigned at this point (trade notwithstanding). “Just wait and see” at this juncture was last season. You believe in Fultz. It’s fine. You don’t have to keep playing this card like you don’t understand how contracts work for guys making over a certain amount before they become unrestricted free agents. They even moved Bamba for something.

Yes I’m glad you brought up the CBA. That’s exactly the reason you cannot pay Fultz after drafting AB and needing to pay Paolo/Franz within a few years. That’s an enormous gamble. You move him and hope AB develops as quickly as Franz so the window is open to use money elsewhere in a playoff roster scenario. Money that doesn’t exist paying Fultz as a starter and Cole as a backup.

Sunk cost fallacy though. They didn’t draft Fultz and they should deal with the current situation. Sounds like we mostly agree. Just don’t connect on asset management You just think we will resign him even in your words if he is a negative asset for more money then he worth. So the only way to prevent that is to trade him. Again it all depends on his trade value. If you can get a vet that helps the team or a lottery protected first yea fine trade him. If the price is salary matched rif raf and a couple of seconds I would rather have him this year and let him go because I don’t think Black will be good enough as a rookie guard. The history here is Anthony and/or Fultz will miss 20-30 games. That gives black the reps you want him to have. Also why can’t Black play the PG with Anthony playing off guard. I still believe that could work as Anthony is more of a 2 on offense who can run the point if needed. I have said my thoughts. I don’t think we disagree that much

We don’t disagree with the money and cost.

We just disagree on the path because I don’t view this FO as one that lets assets go easily. That’s both a good and a bad thing IMO. It cuts both ways. Unfortunately, it hurts Orlando’s situation now more going one direction with where the roster sits and this draft result.

Isaac, Okeke, and Bamba have taught us a lot about how they handle and view their assets. Fournier and AG informed us on how long they were willing to play chicken with roster decisions and the subsequent ROI.

The guard rotation currently has 7 guys requiring minutes (not including deep bench for injuries). Fultz, Cole, AB, GHarris, Suggs, Jett, and yes Houstan. Someone is getting squeezed out of minutes. And no, they will should not throw AB into heavy F minutes behind Franz his rookie year.

I do not expect them to move off of Fultz unless they manage a trade. It would be absolutely shocking if they let him walk. It would go completely against every other informed move they’ve seemed to have made. If they hoard all of these players they are not building a roster anymore. They are collecting assets that will devalue more than Bamba did.

[drsd]

,,,, , but he is here.

This is exactly where my heart is. No that Black is a Magician, what changes need to be made to the roster to foster his excellence?

Mr. Anthony has got to go.

[nymets1]

This is another reason why I hate the Anthony Black pick. On February 18th between Florida Gators and Arkansas Razorbacks, some guy on the Arkansas I never heard of in JALEN GRAHAM WAS THE LEADING SCORER and RICKY COUNSIL was the 2nd leading scorer. I not familiar with Jalen Graham at all. But Ricky Counsil yes he transferred from Wichita State and I got to see Ricky Counsil play for Wichita State cause UCF and Wichita in the same AAC conference.

https://floridagators.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022-23/arkansas/boxscore/25582

[bigdogdylan5]

We don’t disagree with the money and cost.

We just disagree on the path because I don’t view this FO as one that lets assets go easily. That’s both a good and a bad thing IMO. It cuts both ways. Unfortunately, it hurts Orlando’s situation now more going one direction with where the roster sits and this draft result.

Isaac, Okeke, and Bamba have taught us a lot about how they handle and view their assets. Fournier and AG informed us on how long they were willing to play chicken with roster decisions and the subsequent ROI.

The guard rotation currently has 7 guys requiring minutes (not including deep bench for injuries). Fultz, Cole, AB, GHarris, Suggs, Jett, and yes Houstan. Someone is getting squeezed out of minutes. And no, they will should not throw AB into heavy F minutes behind Franz his rookie year.

I do not expect them to move off of Fultz unless they manage a trade. It would be absolutely shocking if they let him walk. It would go completely against every other informed move they’ve seemed to have made. If they hoard all of these players they are not building a roster anymore. They are collecting assets that will devalue more than Bamba did.

I mean you might be right but I feel like with a team that finally has its stars I think they will need to find a way to craft a team to compete. That means a changing on asset management. They might be stubborn but I think the drafting of Black changes a lot and you will stunt his development if you sign Fultz to 3-4 year deal.

[eyriq]

This is another reason why I hate the Anthony Black pick. On February 18th between Florida Gators and Arkansas Razorbacks, some guy on the Arkansas I never heard of in JALEN GRAHAM WAS THE LEADING SCORER and RICKY COUNSIL was the 2nd leading scorer. I not familiar with Jalen Graham at all. But Ricky Counsil yes he transferred from Wichita State and I got to see Ricky Counsil play for Wichita State cause UCF and Wichita in the same AAC conference.

https://floridagators.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2022-23/arkansas/boxscore/25582

How is this game a reason you hate Black?

[KillMonger]

Some people tend to "hate" too easily

Sent from the phone in my hands

[Skybox]

What did Ted Lasso say? "Be curious, not judgmental"...definitely applies here. I'm so convinced that our non-shooting PG is an anchor to our development that I would NEVER have drafted another non-shooting PG to back him up...so, I've got to believe there's a lot more than meets the eye (at least my eye).

Elite defense on the perimeter (like Suggs), special court vision and passing (like Giddey), exceptional positional size and athleticism, overall bball IQ and the physical profile to make winning decisions and plays...okay. Let's go! But please give him the ball.

[dsg2021]

It's a shame, the funnest Magic games for me were when Banchero and Wagner were forced to point forward a lot, like the early season games. How would you not want to develop your two best players that way. In fact, it was probably the best way forward to have a 1 guard that doesn't get the ball very much.

[I Rasharted]

Black, Suggs, Anthony, Fultz, blah blah.



The whole backcourt situation is way too in flux to know/care how it'll play out, and I'm guessing it gets fixed via trade/free agency eventually anyway. Just throw Black and Howard out there and see what happens.

[SOUL]

It's a shame, the funnest Magic games for me were when Banchero and Wagner were forced to point forward a lot, like the early season games. How would you not want to develop your two best players that way. In fact, it was probably the best way forward to have a 1 guard that doesn't get the ball very much.

It's just not needed in terms of Wagner being forced to play PG or Banchero handling it too often. It was done out of necessity and it's no surprise we won a lot more games once Fultz/Cole/Suggs stopped being injured. I don't think those point forward schemes go away moving forward - if anything, they saw how teams like Denver and GS (with Dray forever) can exploit defenses with multiple forms of initiation.

You kind of made a point though, unintended or not, that the way the offense will probably be ran is through a shared load of guys who can initiate and playmake rather than some CP3 level game manager, as teams have gone away from that or simply don't have the right point guard to do it.

I feel like every offseason we discuss log jams (and then are forced to play 3rd stringers and G Leaguers), paths forward (legit concerns), or tidily boxing players into 1 role (when the NBA has become positionless and responsibility is shared way more).

As long as there is clear intent to play Black at the PG in the future, even if this year he's learning from off the bench, that's fine with me. I expect Fultz to start the season but I'm iffy on whether they intend to extend him or not with the selection of Black.

[Knightro]

As far as trading/moving on from one of the incumbent point guards, all I’ll say is that I’ll believe when I see it.

Same applies to Gary Harris.

Until these guys are actually gone, then I’m going to assume they aren’t going anywhere.

[bigdogdylan5]

We could just all be over exaggerating this and Black was just the BPA at 6 and the FO said we will figure it out with all these guards. But then like everyone said you have to be willing to figure it out and make hard decisions. They haven’t really had to do that beyond tearing down the team but people argued that was too late. I don’t totally agree because I don’t think we get as much for Vuc while getting maybe slightly more from AG and Evan. Regardless now comes hard decisions because of the draft decision. I do hope they are prepared to make them.

The more I think about Hendricks, he is more risky than people including myself thought. Defensively he will be solid but the Isaac comparisons are dumb. He is not as good as Isaac was on defense. Not really much of an upside as a creator so that means his only offense skill is the shooting and what happens if that doesn’t totally translate? He didn’t shoot over 40% this year and in his last high school year his shooting numbers were about the same. So like is his ceiling just Jermai Grant and if the shooting goes to like 34-35 he is not as valuable. I think Black skillset is more transferable to NBA. And if the shooting improves then we might have something special.

I think if we didn’t have Fultz on the roster and Cole was our starting point guard MOST of us would have been very happy with this pick. The only concern is that the front office won’t have the stomach to trade or let Fultz go. I actually believe Black is a way better fit with Paolo and Franz then Fultz is. Maybe not perfect because for complete optimization you want a guard facilitator who can hit 35-40% of threes. They will have to let Fultz go or else this will be an extremely clunky fit.

[SOUL]

As far as trading/moving on from one of the incumbent point guards, all I’ll say is that I’ll believe when I see it.

Same applies to Gary Harris.

Until these guys are actually gone, then I’m going to assume they aren’t going anywhere.

It's going to happen, we just don't know when yet, but I do agree for the upcoming season with you in terms of tempering a lot of "cut Fultz, trade X, acquire X" moves people are clamoring for. Fultz is 100% staying, Harris is a question mark but not guaranteed to leave.

However...

1. The Magic want to compete next year, at the very least for the playins. They aren't going to rock the boat too much. Maybe just a little. Black playing off the bench or not isn't of the most importance this year, nor should it be. I do hope they play him on-ball instead of Cole, even if not right away, I think he will make it an easy decision for the staff once it's obvious he can handle that.

2. Cap stuff/contracts are going to get very tricky, very soon. Acquiring cost controlled rookies are great and a reason they kept both picks. We're going to see a lot of teams having to make tough decisions by 2025 and the Magic are not going to extend Fultz, Suggs, Cole and have Black while needing to pay Franz/Paolo. It's just not doable. They're okay enough with the backcourt to be fine with the talent level, unsure enough about a future star there to not address it.

3. This requires both patience and belief in internal improvement, which I feel is a justified expectation, but they are going to nail some solid FA signings and start looking at good trade candidates when things open up to truly take advantage of the future.

[eyriq]

Just listened to last seasons pod squad interview with Weltman. He explained the organic growth strategy as pretty much equivalent to "run it back" while avoiding veteran blockers. He also raved about Fultz as a catalyst for winning basketball. The confluence of events that allows us to say we have a winning record with Fultz superficially supports this. Dive deeper and you don't see clear evidence of this. But I wonder how Weltman's view of Fultz has evolved. Given the pick of Black I feel like it's evolved significantly.

[Skybox]

Just listened to last seasons pod squad interview with Weltman. He explained the organic growth strategy as pretty much equivalent to "run it back" while avoiding veteran blockers. He also raved about Fultz as a catalyst for winning basketball. The confluence of events that allows us to say we have a winning record with Fultz superficially sports this. Five deeper and you don't see clear evidence of this. But I wonder how Weltman's view of Fultz has evolved. Given the pick of Black I feel like it's evolved significantly.

A) you can't believe anything Weltman chooses to divulge and it's always going to be positive-not necessarily untrue, just not necessarily anything to take to the bank

B) I do believe they just played the cards they were dealt at 6 and felt Black was the BPA and an upgrade. It would have been hard to really "target" anyone in that range as there were so many questions and so many iffy shooters. Even if he felt like Fultz was the guy then - it's entirely possible Black's acquisition changes that. I really hope so, having two guys that are truly PG's and who aren't floor spreaders AT ALL is beyond redundant. The more I dig into Black, the more I like it...but I still stand by my thought that #6 was a bit of a crapshoot and certainly not any obvious picks for our roster.

C) IF Fultz can be traded this offseason (as opposed to him letting him walk away next summer for nothing), I'd pull the trigger. I'd start Cole at PG with a hope that Black takes the job as quickly as possible...maybe even by opening night. That's a tall order for a rookie, but he's supposedly gifted with BBIQ. It's also something of a tryout for Cole, who'll be an RFA next summer. Two seasons ago, by necessity, he was our starting PG and he showed some flashes, but clearly was not ready...maybe he is now. IF Cole can run point AND score more efficiently...that gives us a lot more angles on our backcourt. I just don't see a place for Fultz and would love to shore up our bench with his $17m salary before we blunder into a long-term commitment to him...

Who could use a solid ball handler with good efficiency, good size, good defense, but limited scoring ability? I'm honestly trying to think of places where Fultz could be useful...I think these all make some sense - in both directions

Fultz to MIN for Kyle Anderson
Fultz & Okeke to SAS for Zach Collins & Malaki Branham
Fultz, Okeke & DEN 25 frp to WAS for Kispert, Gafford, Gallinari (buyout?), and Delon Wright (buyout?)
Fultz & DEN 25 frp to UTA for Agbaji, Olynyk
Fultz to TOR for GTJ (assuming FVV gone to SAS or HOU)
Fultz to BOS for Grant Williams (SnT $17m x 3)
Fultz (dare I say it) to CHI for Vuc (SnT $15 x 3)

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Almost guarantee this FO gives Fultz a 4 year declining deal and lets it ride until they really need to make a decision.

Black will play a lot of backup 3 minutes and I’d be shocked if we used our $$ in FA outside of deep bench spots.

[Knightro]

It isn’t going to happen, but trading Fultz is far preferable to trading Anthony for me.

We *know* Anthony can thrive as a 20-25 MPG back up point guard because he literally just did it last year.

I *think* Fultz could thrive as a backup PG as well, but I think it’s going to be a lot harder to move him to that role after two consecutive seasons of being the starting point guard.

Plus I think he’s gonna want a raise off his current salary on top of that.

I think you could sign Cole to 15M AAV right now.

I think it’s gonna cost 25M AAV to retain Fultz. Can you really justify that cost for a player when his replacement already appears to be in house?

[fendilim]

It isn’t going to happen, but trading Fultz is far preferable to trading Anthony for me.

We *know* Anthony can thrive as a 20-25 MPG back up point guard because he literally just did it last year.

I *think* Fultz could thrive as a backup PG as well, but I think it’s going to be a lot harder to move him to that role after two consecutive seasons of being the starting point guard.

Plus I think he’s gonna want a raise off his current salary on top of that.

I think you could sign Cole to 15M AAV right now.

I think it’s gonna cost 25M AAV to retain Fultz. Can you really justify that cost for a player when his replacement already appears to be in house?

You think Fultz would want more?

I’m not sure if that’s a good idea. There doesnt seem to be any interested for him from other teams.