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Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#541 » by msmoore66 » Wed Jul 12, 2023 10:57 pm

eyriq wrote:
Knightro wrote:
eyriq wrote:Fine and good, just factor in that Black is likely playing a significant role in this season's success and you'll feel better about the implications of a successful season.


How though?

Wanting it to happen doesn't mean it's actually going to happen.

He's certainly not starting over Fultz and he's not taking Cole's 6th man role if the goal is to actually win games.

And if the argument is "he's better than those guys and will play over one of them" then why didn't the Magic opt to just trade one of them to ensure that happens?
The answer is that "he's better than" and "will play over". The reason we haven't traded one of them is because we are evaluating roster needs before transitioning into roster building around the core next offseason I think. I don't think a trade is out of the question though.


Enjoying this discussion between you two.
I think Eyriq makes a good point here. Trade isn't necessarily out of the question, we talk a lot about evaluation as a mid term type exercise. However we could also be in a mini evaluation period now, prior to the season. Will be interesting to see what happens.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#542 » by SOUL » Wed Jul 12, 2023 11:24 pm

I side with Knightro in this debate though - eyriq is giving way too much credence to rookies. Paolo had one of the better rookie years and his impact was like 150th or worse and Black/Jett surely aren't going to impact the game like that to be better than even replacement level guys.

That being said, they can still be critical to our season in terms of being our future and adding in a bit of what we're missing. If you're expecting them to be 20-30 minute guys/starters, we are going to take a step back with our record. They could also technically "outplay" guys while having less advanced impact if guys like Fultz/Cole/Suggs stagnate (providing more impact, but not enough improvement to outpace rookies).
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#543 » by Skin » Wed Jul 12, 2023 11:53 pm

eyriq wrote:
Read on Twitter
?t=LJ8jSgtq4X81NWCzu5Pf0A&s=19

Someone with this mentality should've packaged our picks for a bigger impactful player. Weltman is starting to show weakness in his armor.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#544 » by SOUL » Thu Jul 13, 2023 2:21 am

Skin wrote:
eyriq wrote:
Read on Twitter
?t=LJ8jSgtq4X81NWCzu5Pf0A&s=19

Someone with this mentality should've packaged our picks for a bigger impactful player. Weltman is starting to show weakness in his armor.


Is it black and white of going 100% all in or not? I don't see it like that. Plenty of young guys have been brought along slowly, including FVV and Siakam who started in the G League
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#545 » by Bensational » Thu Jul 13, 2023 2:55 am

This might be tin foil deductions, but the Magic definitely seem to be making sure the message is heard that they want to compete and players have to earn their minutes now. Black seems to be the only player who has open conflict with that given his pre-draft comment about believing one of Fultz or Cole would be traded*. He’s a young #6 pick and if he’d gone to Washington or Utah he’d likely be the starter, so it’s understandable he’d have expectations of a role of a certain size.

I don’t think there’s tension there, I think it’s just expectations being rebalanced as everyone gets on the same page. I think WePark are banking on being able to make Black feel they’re invested in him in spite of lower-than-expected minutes. That said, the minutes are there for him if he can outplay Ingles, Suggs, Cole, Harris. That’s not an unrealistic bar to ask someone to reach before you increase their role.

*- EDIT: for the record I don’t put any weight in that comment, I think he was probably baited into it. Just using it as the only open example of someone thinking counter to WePark’s comments about being gifted minutes.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#546 » by eyriq » Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:18 am

SOUL wrote:I side with Knightro in this debate though - eyriq is giving way too much credence to rookies. Paolo had one of the better rookie years and his impact was like 150th or worse and Black/Jett surely aren't going to impact the game like that to be better than even replacement level guys.

That being said, they can still be critical to our season in terms of being our future and adding in a bit of what we're missing. If you're expecting them to be 20-30 minute guys/starters, we are going to take a step back with our record. They could also technically "outplay" guys while having less advanced impact if guys like Fultz/Cole/Suggs stagnate (providing more impact, but not enough improvement to outpace rookies).
That's fair, Black nor Jett are going to command double teams and transform our offense like Paolo did.

The bar isn't that high though. For Black the bar on the high end is Fultz, a bottom ten starting PG, and the low end is Cole, a top ten backup PG.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#547 » by pepe1991 » Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:44 am

SOUL wrote:
Skin wrote:
eyriq wrote:
Read on Twitter
?t=LJ8jSgtq4X81NWCzu5Pf0A&s=19

Someone with this mentality should've packaged our picks for a bigger impactful player. Weltman is starting to show weakness in his armor.


Is it black and white of going 100% all in or not? I don't see it like that. Plenty of young guys have been brought along slowly, including FVV and Siakam who started in the G League


Except fact Siakam was 27th pick and Vleet was undrafted. Equivalent of Raptors investment in them would be Iwundu + Frazier.


I never belived rookies should be awarded starting positions based on draft stock, difference now is fact that our situation is simply mess.

Our 5th overall pick , drafted to be PG, after one year was removed from PG position and benched.
Our 6th overall pick who we just drafted will struggle to get any PG repetition.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#548 » by SOUL » Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:51 am

pepe1991 wrote:[
Our 5th overall pick , drafted to be PG, after one year was removed from PG position and benched.
Our 6th overall pick who we just drafted will struggle to get any PG repetition.


I don't think they anticipated Suggs handle not improving tbh. I still think he's a valuable player though, just not a PG.

Either way, I think as long as there isnt any long-term logjams yet (Cole/Fultz not extended), whatever happens this year will get clearer as the year goes on
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#549 » by pepe1991 » Thu Jul 13, 2023 5:57 am

SOUL wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:[
Our 5th overall pick , drafted to be PG, after one year was removed from PG position and benched.
Our 6th overall pick who we just drafted will struggle to get any PG repetition.


I don't think they anticipated Suggs handle not improving tbh. I still think he's a valuable player though, just not a PG.

Either way, I think as long as there isnt any long-term logjams yet (Cole/Fultz not extended), whatever happens this year will get clearer as the year goes on


Don't you think it's just devaluation of asset if you draft somebody as PG, let him suck it out first year, change his position, bench him, and than draft another PG ( with very similar problems btw) , and still start PG who is probably bottom 5 starting PG with identical or near identical problems?

You basically have 3 same players. Tall PG who can't shoot. 2/3 are above average defenders but third is most fluid athlete & natural scorer.

It's just overkill of players who 98% can't play together in any combination at pg-sg punch.


And there is Cole.


:dontknow: i still think one of Sugg/Fultz/Black should be gone asap, assuming Cole is only player who actually can shoot so he doesn't create problems other 3 create when they are on same team.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#550 » by SOUL » Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:04 am

pepe1991 wrote::dontknow: i still think one of Sugg/Fultz/Black should be gone asap, assuming Cole is only player who actually can shoot so he doesn't create problems other 3 create when they are on same team.


Not that I disagree but the issue is:

1. People have differing opinions to who it should be, if you make the wrong choice, its a setback for what rush? Which leads to 2...
2. There isn't a pressing urgency to give Black 25 mins instead of 15 minutes by moving someone right away
3. Say what you want as far as their upsides, but Fultz, Suggs, and Cole all improved upon the year before, meaning their value probably lies in a specific range of a decent return but nothing amazing, even if they improved slightly more or stayed the same, or played slightly worse.
4. They played solid but not amazing so it didn't feel like some Linsanity thing happening

It's not a Bol situation where he's clearly a 13th man whose upside is a 7th man when he plays hot, I think the value is going to be similar through trade deadline
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#551 » by pepe1991 » Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:24 am

SOUL wrote:
pepe1991 wrote::dontknow: i still think one of Sugg/Fultz/Black should be gone asap, assuming Cole is only player who actually can shoot so he doesn't create problems other 3 create when they are on same team.


Not that I disagree but the issue is:

1. People have differing opinions to who it should be, if you make the wrong choice, its a setback for what rush? Which leads to 2...
2. There isn't a pressing urgency to give Black 25 mins instead of 15 minutes by moving someone right away
3. Say what you want as far as their upsides, but Fultz, Suggs, and Cole all improved upon the year before, meaning their value probably lies in a specific range of a decent return but nothing amazing, even if they improved slightly more or stayed the same, or played slightly worse.
4. They played solid but not amazing so it didn't feel like some Linsanity thing happening

It's not a Bol situation where he's clearly a 13th man whose upside is a 7th man when he plays hot, I think the value is going to be similar through trade deadline


1. Some of Cole/Suggs/Fultz/Black will be out of rotation at some point ( assuming no injuries) and that will devalue that player's trade value so playing wait and see game isn't really beneficial from trade pov

2. Pressing urgency comes from fact over next 2 years over 70% of current roster hits free agency so you will play your cards or allow player's market to play your hands for you. In second scenario you will have no control over things. If you do nothing, you will still sit here 2 years from now with Banchero and Paolo making some cumulative $70-80 M a year

3. Fultz value declines with more money he makes. My point 2) is connected with this point. If you allow market to play cards for you, you will just end up losing asset for nothing or overpay to keep and by default, that player will have less value. Because some random Cole potential suitor probably prefers him this year on $4M than next year or year after on $15-18M

4. Bol had his Bolsanity, we menaged to fumble it and vaiwe him several months later


And in general it's very hard to get most out of player if he is on team where he isn't playing to his strenghts.
For example, you put Black and Fultz together, wtf will one do when other has ball?
What will Suggs do when Fultz has ball? Pretend he is shooting gaurd like last season?
What will Black do when Suggs/Fultz/Cole have ball?
What will Fultz do whenever he doesn't have ball?

It's not impossible to run two-gurad-no-jumpshot lineup, if others can supliment for them, but Magic ain't built to do so. Banchero himself is very bad outside shooter. Wendell is average at best. Franz is average with hope he can become above average. But rest of roster in general also can't shoot.


That's why i simply can't understand decision to keep Cole/Suggs/Fultz , and keep Harris and add Black and Howard.

And in same time we have some of the worst PF/C bench rotation in nba. All it will take is Wendell to be his usal self and you will be starting Mortiz Wagner or Goga and kiss playoff hopes goodby. And God forbid Banchero missing 10-15 games ,because his backup is who execlly? Okeke? :banghead:
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#552 » by SOUL » Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:28 am

pepe1991 wrote:And in same time we have some of the worst PF/C bench rotation in nba. All it will take is Wendell to be his usal self and you will be starting Mortiz Wagner or Goga and kiss playoff hopes goodby. And God forbid Banchero missing 10-15 games ,because his backup is who execlly? Okeke? :banghead:


Well this I agree with. Not a fan of Moe. Goga is okay but prob 3rd best C on most teams, and Isaac injury is too much to depend on. Okeke sucks.

But hey, I was also told that drafting a big like Hendricks, Walker or Lively was bad because they wouldn't be starters, so I think whoever we picked people would be complaining :lol:
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#553 » by eyriq » Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:10 am

What grade would you give this offseason?

Draft: Black /Jett
Options: waived Bol
Free agents: Moritz / Ingles
Trades: NA

Also, what are the factors that go into your grade?
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#554 » by basketballRob » Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:15 am

pepe1991 wrote:
SOUL wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:[
Our 5th overall pick , drafted to be PG, after one year was removed from PG position and benched.
Our 6th overall pick who we just drafted will struggle to get any PG repetition.


I don't think they anticipated Suggs handle not improving tbh. I still think he's a valuable player though, just not a PG.

Either way, I think as long as there isnt any long-term logjams yet (Cole/Fultz not extended), whatever happens this year will get clearer as the year goes on


Don't you think it's just devaluation of asset if you draft somebody as PG, let him suck it out first year, change his position, bench him, and than draft another PG ( with very similar problems btw) , and still start PG who is probably bottom 5 starting PG with identical or near identical problems?

You basically have 3 same players. Tall PG who can't shoot. 2/3 are above average defenders but third is most fluid athlete & natural scorer.

It's just overkill of players who 98% can't play together in any combination at pg-sg punch.


And there is Cole.


:dontknow: i still think one of Sugg/Fultz/Black should be gone asap, assuming Cole is only player who actually can shoot so he doesn't create problems other 3 create when they are on same team.
Suggs just shot nearly 40% in the second half of the season. The point is that young players improve.




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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#555 » by pepe1991 » Thu Jul 13, 2023 9:52 am

basketballRob wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
SOUL wrote:
I don't think they anticipated Suggs handle not improving tbh. I still think he's a valuable player though, just not a PG.

Either way, I think as long as there isnt any long-term logjams yet (Cole/Fultz not extended), whatever happens this year will get clearer as the year goes on


Don't you think it's just devaluation of asset if you draft somebody as PG, let him suck it out first year, change his position, bench him, and than draft another PG ( with very similar problems btw) , and still start PG who is probably bottom 5 starting PG with identical or near identical problems?

You basically have 3 same players. Tall PG who can't shoot. 2/3 are above average defenders but third is most fluid athlete & natural scorer.

It's just overkill of players who 98% can't play together in any combination at pg-sg punch.


And there is Cole.


:dontknow: i still think one of Sugg/Fultz/Black should be gone asap, assuming Cole is only player who actually can shoot so he doesn't create problems other 3 create when they are on same team.
Suggs just shot nearly 40% in the second half of the season. The point is that young players improve.





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Suggs second year
41,9% FG
32,7% for 3
72% FTs

all 3 categories belong in group called " below average". All that as bench player.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#556 » by basketballRob » Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:21 am

pepe1991 wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Don't you think it's just devaluation of asset if you draft somebody as PG, let him suck it out first year, change his position, bench him, and than draft another PG ( with very similar problems btw) , and still start PG who is probably bottom 5 starting PG with identical or near identical problems?

You basically have 3 same players. Tall PG who can't shoot. 2/3 are above average defenders but third is most fluid athlete & natural scorer.

It's just overkill of players who 98% can't play together in any combination at pg-sg punch.


And there is Cole.


:dontknow: i still think one of Sugg/Fultz/Black should be gone asap, assuming Cole is only player who actually can shoot so he doesn't create problems other 3 create when they are on same team.
Suggs just shot nearly 40% in the second half of the season. The point is that young players improve.





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Suggs second year
41,9% FG
32,7% for 3
72% FTs

all 3 categories belong in group called " below average". All that as bench player.
Suggs will make another jump this season.






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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#557 » by eyriq » Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:25 am

eyriq wrote:What grade would you give this offseason?

Draft: Black /Jett
Options: waived Bol
Free agents: Moritz / Ingles
Trades: NA

Also, what are the factors that go into your grade?
I'd grade it a C

Factors:
Setting up a clear path for development
Building a balanced roster
Providing a clear long-term vision
Providing a clear short-term vision

Issues:
There is a guard logjam resulting in an imbalanced roster and potential blockers for the lotto picks to get PT
Long-term vision seems clear enough, building around Paolo and Franz
Short-term vision seems to be focused on player evaluation and development. Show me what you got mode
I like the roster and financial flexibility we've maintained
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#558 » by zaymon » Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:27 am

Suggs man defense is exceptional we can all agree on that. If his shooting makes another small jump he is rotational player even if nothing else improves.
Maybe he is not a star but players who can guard 1-3 and be defensive stopper are valueable.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#559 » by eyriq » Thu Jul 13, 2023 10:34 am

zaymon wrote:Suggs man defense is exceptional we can all agree on that. If his shooting makes another small jump he is rotational player even if nothing else improves.
Maybe he is not a star but players who can guard 1-3 and be defensive stopper are valueable.
I can't wait to see a Black/Suggs backcourt. If this works...
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Off-season Edition - The Draft 

Post#560 » by zaymon » Thu Jul 13, 2023 11:17 am

eyriq wrote:
zaymon wrote:Suggs man defense is exceptional we can all agree on that. If his shooting makes another small jump he is rotational player even if nothing else improves.
Maybe he is not a star but players who can guard 1-3 and be defensive stopper are valueable.
I can't wait to see a Black/Suggs backcourt. If this works...


Well thats fan fiction right now sadly. More realistic is Black/Harris or Black/Howard.
Problem with Suggs is that he cant play lead ball.handler so him coming from the bench with Cole was ideal. Maybe we could go with Black/Howard/Suggs/Isaac/Moe from the bench.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !

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