OT: SF Giants 2023

[Samurai]

I was hoping for a little more than AJ Pollock. I think he's pretty much cooked; can't see him moving the needle in a playoff push.

[tal57]

I was hoping for a little more than AJ Pollock. I think he's pretty much cooked; can't see him moving the needle in a playoff push.

Yes, but you don't give up anything for him and you pay him squat. Precisely what the doctor ordered for Zaidi and his bosses.
That's called pulling the wool over fans' eyes by pretending you are not sitting the deadline out.

[tarantism]

I was hoping for a little more than AJ Pollock. I think he's pretty much cooked; can't see him moving the needle in a playoff push.

Yes, but you don't give up anything for him and you pay him squat. Precisely what the doctor ordered for Zaidi and his bosses.
That's called pulling the wool over fans' eyes by pretending you are not sitting the deadline out.

It's the most predictable outcome and yet still so disappointing. Go ahead and pair that with the "Giants will be aggressive" reporting a few weeks ago, followed by a brief losing streak and then complete absenteeism come deadline day. Zaidi probably has his phone on silent, just another day at the office. Likely on top of the DFA market though.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[wco81]

Astros just traded for Verlander, who has probably $50-60 million in salary left.

Astros are near the bottom in farm system rankings, since they've already got their best prospects playing or have traded them over the years.

So it will be interesting to see what they ended up giving up to get Verlander.

Was it mostly that they're willing to take on the huge salary left for a 40-year old pitcher, who's still pitching well BTW?

I guess the Giants ownership are content to have won those titles, still less than 10 years ago, and ride on that.

They used to be consistently top 5 in attendance, at 41,500 to 42,500 fans a year, which represented high 90s percentage-wise of the capacity at their stadium. But it's been a steady decline since the mid 2010s and 2017 was the last season in which they averaged over 40k fans a game.

By 2019 they'd already dropped to 33,429, for #11 in the MLB and so far in 2023, they're just under 31k per game, for #14 in the league.

Padres spent so they're averaging almost 41k per game in a small market.

Giants were able to raise ticket prices steadily with the titles and also being in the top 10 in attendance steadily until the pandemic.

49ers have averaged over 70k fans, over 100% capacity for the past decade, even in the horrible seasons between Harbaugh and Shanahan.

Warriors averaged 100% capacity in the first full season after the pandemic, with probably the highest ticket prices in the NBA.

It may be that even if they increased attendance by an average of 10k per game, to return to their best years, they wouldn't raise enough additional revenues to absorb a bigger payroll?

Or maybe baseball is just dying faster in the Bay Area than some other cities.

[Samurai]

If they can sign Ohtani in the off-season, I promise I won't complain about their lackluster moves right now.

I guess that means I will be doing a lot of complaining.....

[tal57]

[quote="wco81"]
I guess the Giants ownership are content to have won those titles, still less than 10 years ago, and ride on that.

Those titles were a blessing and the curse at the same time. I called it in 2015, based on the 20 years of preceding history.

Remember 2000-2003 relatively success years, with 2002 culminating in almost winning the elusive WS. They were riding that, plus new playground and the shiny toy playing there (Bonds) until 2010. Lucked in on the 3 pitching homegrown studs, nonexistent Dodgers and the weak division to luck into 3 titles with nonexistent (other than Posey) offense.

2014 Dodgers sale to the legit ownership group screwed up the Giants corporate system. Zaidi has no options but to build the minor league systems and pray they'll produce. If they don't, he'll be the fall guy. The money he will be allowed to spend will always be proportionate to the revenue and excepted subsequent net profit satisfying the entire ownership group. Which by the way is extremely negatively structured for any pro sports franchise for having the exorbitant number of investors (I believe 31 or 32), many of whom on the back end are there for mainly investment purposes first and foremost, with the team winning distant second.

Don't get me wrong, all of them are extremely happy if lucked onto winning the title or suddenly having miraculous season like 2021 out of nowhere, while staying totally within the profitable budget at the same time. The question is how many times it will happen now, especially given the current makeup of NL West unless the youngsters will all produce like crazy at the same time.

[tarantism]

Jean Segura released by Cleveland following his trade from Miami. Dollar to a dime he feels like a Giants target

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[tarantism]

Or maybe baseball is just dying faster in the Bay Area than some other cities.

Except it's not. Attendance around the league is up 9%, and people like the new rules and pace of play.

The Giants don't operate like a contender. As somebody said before, they are sort of similar to the Cohan Warriors. If they field a competitive team then people will come - they remain a very popular team even out of state (I've lived in Portland since 2015). But nobody takes the dumpster diving and feigned offseason splashes seriously anymore, and the farm hasn't produced players to get truly excited about, with the exception of maybe Bailey currently and that might just be Posey afterglow (though the defense looks real).

Lots of underwhelming acquisitions and "here we go again" attitude with the ownership group. People just aren't excited.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Nvnervous45]

Hey guys, remember that time Mauricio Dubon tried to flex on the Giants about playing time? I member...

[tarantism]

Their plate approach is terrible, almost down to a man. During the 106 win season a few years ago we worked counts well, showed good approach up and down the roster. What changed?

It will be a miracle if they can hold a wild card spot at this point. Maybe they knew this was coming, and that's why they sat on their hands at the deadline.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[wco81]

Would be cool if Bochy called out Giants ownership, failures with the farm system, by the time he left.

[Nvnervous45]

Outside of ohtani the free agent market for 2024 isn't very good. There's a few decent pitchers like Nola and urias but thats about it. Josh Donaldson is out there for hitters.
Point being, we gotta hope some of these young hitters like matos and luciano come out of there shells or it'll be just as bad next year.
But yeah our hitting approach is brutal right now. A few solo shots a game isn't cutting it.

[tarantism]

Outside of ohtani the free agent market for 2024 isn't very good. There's a few decent pitchers like Nola and urias but thats about it. Josh Donaldson is out there for hitters.
Point being, we gotta hope some of these young hitters like matos and luciano come out of there shells or it'll be just as bad next year.
But yeah our hitting approach is brutal right now. A few solo shots a game isn't cutting it.

Bellinger seems like a pretty natural fit here. He won't completely take away Matos' development. The Joc Pederson tenure is likely coming to an end, unless he can put together a big stretch run. Ohtani likely signs with LA which probably pushes ownership to sign somebody. Former Dodger, and we love those now.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[wco81]

It's not the approach, it's the lack of talent.

But there are a lot of players around baseball who've hit 15 or more HRs but are hitting like .230 or less.

A lot of Giants players could have more HRs in another park but they'd likely still have anemic averages and fail to make good contact most of the time.

[wco81]

I don't know how much Zaidi's hands are tied as far as spending but the Giants payroll this year is $186 million.

They're not screwed like the Mets, Yankees or Padres, who are #1, #2 and #3 in payroll.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

But there are some bad contracts on the team now, like Stripling and Manaea at $10 million each this year and player options for $15 million next year. So Giants are probably stuck with these guys.

Conforto has a $18 million player option so unless some other team gives him a multiyear deal, that's potentially another albatross contract for next year.

Hanniger is going to get $19 million next year.

So at #11 in payroll, $186 million, they will probably be near that next year.

The #4-10 teams I believe have better records than the Giants, more likely to do something in the playoffs. Giants may fall out of it completely at the rate they're going.

So Zaidi has had some money to spend and one year it worked out really well but this year, it's reverting to the mean, most of his FA signings are not doing anything.

Then you look at #27 Rays and #28 Orioles, both spending less than half the Giants.

Giants are just in a rough division, unless they're willing to risk spending like the Padres or the Rangers have been spending the last few years, to try to shake up the talent level of the rosters.

Also Phillies might fit in this category as well, since they've given big contracts not only to Harper but Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos.

Schwarber has hit for very poor average in his two seasons with the Phillies but 76 HRs in just under 2 full seasons.

Turner is having a mediocre year this year, his first as a Phillies but okay for a midfielder.

Castellanos has hit .278, 20 HRs and 76 RBIs this year.

Phillies payroll is over $245 million in 2023.

Giants in August seems to be scoring 1 or 2 runs a game.

[tarantism]

Kyle Harrison today becomes the next in a long line of Giants rookies to debut this season. He's getting thrown right into a huge game with major playoff implications. Hopefully it goes well, but he's had command problems in the minors.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[wco81]

Seems like they're trying every prospect now.

Not because they're necessarily ready but because they need help.

None of them so far has looked like they could be an all-star.

[tarantism]

Seems like they're trying every prospect now.

Not because they're necessarily ready but because they need help.

None of them so far has looked like they could be an all-star.

They need a spark. Harrison had a decent debut to me. The fastball command was better than expected but they said on the broadcast that he was tipping the slider so that's probably his next hurdle. If he can develop the change changeup I could still see him being a front end starter but the floor is likely mid rotation or elite reliever with the two pitches he has now. Still, a pretty good debut. Just feels like teams will figure out the fastball in the majors.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Nvnervous45]

Correction: I think Patrick Bailey could be an all-star. The d is stellar, the bat is pretty good.

[wco81]

ESPN predicted an 80-win season, notes that Giants have done more than teams with superstars on the roster.

However, for long-term, they are going to need a star or two.

But this year has proven how tough it is to grind through a season this way -- and the lack of manpower is perhaps finally starting to show. The series loss to the Phillies was the Giants' sixth consecutive losing series after beginning the month with three straight wins over Arizona, and the schedule doesn't get much easier down the stretch. The Reds, San Diego Padres and Cubs are up next, and seven of San Francisco's final 10 games are against their division rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If the Giants want to turn 2021's success and this year's surprise contention into long-term success, they know that eventually they'll need to add some star power to the roster; it's hard to keep winning with platoon players and waiver-wire castoffs. They certainly tried to add stars in the offseason, first pursuing Aaron Judge and then agreeing to a 13-year, $350 million contract with Carlos Correa, only to pull out at the last minute over concerns with Correa's physical. (Given Correa's subpar performance this season back with the Minnesota Twins, it looks like they escaped an albatross of a contract.)

The Giants will also need to get younger, which means the farm system needs to produce some talent. Patrick Bailey has impressed, especially on defense, and looks like the solution at catcher that Joey Bart wasn't. Luis Matos was called up and has shown some good contact ability but not much power, and his defensive metrics in center are poor. He might be more of a fourth outfielder. Highly-touted shortstop Marco Luciano has hit just .231 in the minors, losing some shine off his prospect luster. Lefty Kyle Harrison just made his debut a few days after turning 22 despite struggling with his control in Triple-A (48 walks in 67⅔ innings). Still, he has top-of-the-rotation potential. Meckler has come out of nowhere, although calling him up after such little time in the minors seems to be a sign of the team's problems in center field.

Throw in Casey Schmitt and Blake Sabol and the Giants are transitioning from one of the oldest teams in baseball the past couple of seasons to one suddenly relying on a slew of rookies as it battles for the wild card. I'd bet against the Giants this year, given their youth and remaining schedule, but they have already surprised us just being in this position.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38252116/mlb-2023-giants-playoffs-wild-card-race-national-league