Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[cedric76]

43 wins

[eyriq]

Bulls, Pelicans, Heat, and Wolves all were top 10 defenses, bottom 10 offenses last season. It is typical that we'll see a 1-5 teams meet this criteria in any given season, and their records tend to be around .500.

Chicago Bulls: 40 wins and 42 losses
New Orleans Pelicans: 42 wins and 40 losses
Miami Heat: 44 wins and 38 losses
Minnesota Timberwolves: 42 wins and 40 losses

Edit: Here are some of the youngest teams to finish with a top ten defense. JJJ was only 22 in 2022. WILD. We really need a healthy Isaac.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2010): Average Age 23.2, DRtg 104.6, 50 Wins, 32 Losses
Memphis Grizzlies (2022): Average Age 24.0, DRtg 109.0, 56 Wins, 26 Losses
Denver Nuggets (2003): Average Age 24.1, DRtg 101.3, 17 Wins, 65 Losses
Chicago Bulls (2006): Average Age 24.1, DRtg 103.4, 41 Wins, 41 Losses
Memphis Grizzlies (2021): Average Age 24.2, DRtg 111.0, 38 Wins, 34 Losses
Utah Jazz (2016): Average Age 24.2, DRtg 103.9, 40 Wins, 42 Losses
Detroit Pistons (1981): Average Age 24.3, DRtg 104.3, 21 Wins, 61 Losses
Chicago Bulls (1984): Average Age 24.4, DRtg 107.5, 27 Wins, 55 Losses
Memphis Grizzlies (2023): Average Age 24.4, DRtg 111.2, 51 Wins, 31 Losses
Indiana Pacers (1984): Average Age 24.4, DRtg 106.5, 26 Wins, 56 Losses

double edit:

Here are the top "super young" teams (with an average age of 24 or below) that have most significantly exceeded their expected win percentages (based on a polynomial model of win% ~ age). 36 teams had an average age of 24 or below, so the Magic are 7/36 in this analysis. Nice to see that we exceeded the model. Though not to the same degree as the Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka Thunder group we should keep in mind that Durant was 21 in 2010, so this coming season will be Paolo's equivalent.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2011): Avg Age 23.7, Actual Win % 67.07, Expected Win % 33.12, Difference 33.95
Memphis Grizzlies (2022): Avg Age 24.0, Actual Win % 68.29, Expected Win % 35.07, Difference 33.22
Oklahoma City Thunder (2010): Avg Age 23.2, Actual Win % 60.98, Expected Win % 29.75, Difference 31.22
Portland Trail Blazers (2009): Avg Age 24.0, Actual Win % 65.85, Expected Win % 35.07, Difference 30.78
Oklahoma City Thunder (2023): Avg Age 22.8, Actual Win % 48.78, Expected Win % 26.95, Difference 21.83
Utah Jazz (2016): Avg Age 23.4, Actual Win % 46.34, Expected Win % 31.12, Difference 15.22
Orlando Magic (2023): Avg Age 23.1, Actual Win % 41.46, Expected Win % 29.06, Difference 12.40
Los Angeles Lakers (2019): Avg Age 23.7, Actual Win % 42.68, Expected Win % 33.12, Difference 9.56
Boston Celtics (2006): Avg Age 23.9, Actual Win % 43.90, Expected Win % 34.43, Difference 9.48
Milwaukee Bucks (2016): Avg Age 23.5, Actual Win % 40.24, Expected Win % 31.79, Difference 8.45

[eyriq]

I'm bumping up my expectations from 39 wins to 52 wins.

[drsd]

I'm bumping up my expectations from 39 wins to 52 wins.

[Residual-Heat]

Bulls, Pelicans, Heat, and Wolves all were top 10 defenses, bottom 10 offenses last season. It is typical that we'll see a 1-5 teams meet this criteria in any given season, and their records tend to be around .500.

Chicago Bulls: 40 wins and 42 losses
New Orleans Pelicans: 42 wins and 40 losses
Miami Heat: 44 wins and 38 losses
Minnesota Timberwolves: 42 wins and 40 losses

Edit: Here are some of the youngest teams to finish with a top ten defense. JJJ was only 22 in 2022. WILD. We really need a healthy Isaac.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2010): Average Age 23.2, DRtg 104.6, 50 Wins, 32 Losses
Memphis Grizzlies (2022): Average Age 24.0, DRtg 109.0, 56 Wins, 26 Losses
Denver Nuggets (2003): Average Age 24.1, DRtg 101.3, 17 Wins, 65 Losses
Chicago Bulls (2006): Average Age 24.1, DRtg 103.4, 41 Wins, 41 Losses
Memphis Grizzlies (2021): Average Age 24.2, DRtg 111.0, 38 Wins, 34 Losses
Utah Jazz (2016): Average Age 24.2, DRtg 103.9, 40 Wins, 42 Losses
Detroit Pistons (1981): Average Age 24.3, DRtg 104.3, 21 Wins, 61 Losses
Chicago Bulls (1984): Average Age 24.4, DRtg 107.5, 27 Wins, 55 Losses
Memphis Grizzlies (2023): Average Age 24.4, DRtg 111.2, 51 Wins, 31 Losses
Indiana Pacers (1984): Average Age 24.4, DRtg 106.5, 26 Wins, 56 Losses

double edit:

Here are the top "super young" teams (with an average age of 24 or below) that have most significantly exceeded their expected win percentages (based on a polynomial model of win% ~ age). 36 teams had an average age of 24 or below, so the Magic are 7/36 in this analysis. Nice to see that we exceeded the model. Though not to the same degree as the Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka Thunder group we should keep in mind that Durant was 21 in 2010, so this coming season will be Paolo's equivalent.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2011): Avg Age 23.7, Actual Win % 67.07, Expected Win % 33.12, Difference 33.95
Memphis Grizzlies (2022): Avg Age 24.0, Actual Win % 68.29, Expected Win % 35.07, Difference 33.22
Oklahoma City Thunder (2010): Avg Age 23.2, Actual Win % 60.98, Expected Win % 29.75, Difference 31.22
Portland Trail Blazers (2009): Avg Age 24.0, Actual Win % 65.85, Expected Win % 35.07, Difference 30.78
Oklahoma City Thunder (2023): Avg Age 22.8, Actual Win % 48.78, Expected Win % 26.95, Difference 21.83
Utah Jazz (2016): Avg Age 23.4, Actual Win % 46.34, Expected Win % 31.12, Difference 15.22
Orlando Magic (2023): Avg Age 23.1, Actual Win % 41.46, Expected Win % 29.06, Difference 12.40
Los Angeles Lakers (2019): Avg Age 23.7, Actual Win % 42.68, Expected Win % 33.12, Difference 9.56
Boston Celtics (2006): Avg Age 23.9, Actual Win % 43.90, Expected Win % 34.43, Difference 9.48
Milwaukee Bucks (2016): Avg Age 23.5, Actual Win % 40.24, Expected Win % 31.79, Difference 8.45

https://www.nba.com/magic/news/heres-what-having-a-top-10-defense-usually-leads-to-20231006

Well, the bottom line is that most teams that finish with a top 10 defensive rating make the playoffs, and even those that don’t typically hover around 40 victories. Here’s some key data to back that all up.

Over the last 27 seasons, which goes back to 1996-97, 241 out of the 270 teams that recorded a top 10 defensive rating reached the playoffs. That’s 89.3 percent.

Four of those years were truncated because of either lockouts or the pandemic. So, looking exclusively at the 23 full-length seasons during this timeframe, 213 of the 230 teams that finished with a top 10 defensive rating won at least 40 games. That’s 92.6 percent.

[Knightro]

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Training camp is officially over. Preseason prep begins Sunday.

[ogmagicfan]

I think I can speak for everyone that we're happy the offseason is coming to an end.

Enough with the same rinse, repeat, wash debates about Fultz & his shooting, Suggs and his offensive abilities, the draft picks we made. Based off of information from the past seasons.

This season is a season of evaluation, of who stays & who goes. Lets wish the best to our Magic players and hopefully making the playoffs!

[eyriq]

I find it really impressive that we are on pace to have one of the best young cores of all time. Managing the transition from rebuild to playoff contention to contender will be critical.

[thelead]

If things go right: 46 wins
If things go wrong: 34 wins

My prediction based on that: 40 wins is what I would put my money on (hoping for at least 42 though)

[drsd]

Two more days to preseason game-1

[RichCollab]

I’m ready to see the guys on the court.

[G-Heel]

46 wins would be my guess. Need to start off hot so either Paolo or Franz can be in the discussion for all stars.

[JojoSlimbiid]

I'll say 38-41 wins and mostly competitive basketball all year around with the off chance of an OKC like they are better than we think they are type situation which pushes the number into the mid 40s

[rcklsscognition]

I'm going with 42 wins.

[Bensational]

42 is gonna be a lucky number in 24. I can feel it.

[Knightro]

If things go right: 46 wins
If things go wrong: 34 wins

My prediction based on that: 40 wins is what I would put my money on (hoping for at least 42 though)

We’re close.

I think 36 to 44 is the range. There will be injuries obviously. Hopefully not to the level of some other years.

[Black and Blue]

I’m going with 45 wins. I think this is going to be one of those weird “a bunch of players over-perform and the team has to scramble to figure out contracts” years.

[Skybox]

I’m going with 45 wins. I think this is going to be one of those weird “a bunch of players over-perform and the team has to scramble to figure out contracts” years.

That's actually kind of a concerning kind of success...other East teams could have injuries, decide to blow it up, or just under-perform. ORL could enjoy a "perfect storm" of success (like ATL did a few years back) and end up committed to a team with a pretty hard ceiling due to financial obligations to limited players compounded by less valuable draft picks.

The year that ATL sent 4 guys to the ASG that would never sniff it again and Budenholzer got on the national radar as a young coach on the rise. Great system, great ball movement won a lot of regular season games, but lack of true star talent was badly exposed in playoffs. The All-Stars, I think, were Milsap, Teague, Korver, and Horford.

[Optimus_Steel]

Going with 39, hoping for 44.

[Knightro]

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