Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

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Not to knock Green because he was dealing with a tired short handed team himself but Jazz have a great head coach.

People were celebrating the g-league call ups but it's these players that will play hard against a tired team because they'd want to showcase themselves. Pels had no response late when Utah pulled ahead because they had no legs. As I mentioned above, Utah 3 days fresh had 20 TO's lost the possession battle -!3 & only shot 2% better from the field.

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I'm currently watching the Lakers, Philly match. Philly up 17, refs wiping Lakers ass .. lol.

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Jazz telegraphing the Pels offense. Forced 10 TO's to 4. +4 on the FT line, is the difference so far.

Same way fans feel this team can never beat Utah... You can bet it's in the players head too. The mental aspect of believing something. The proverbial monkey on the back syndrome.. The other team is playing free & easy, with nothing to lose.

Pels need to come out 3rd Q with a focused aggression.

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Refs preventing Pels from taking the lead early 3rd. Nice little FT fest for Utah here.

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Green gone back to shooting his team in the foot with the Nance, Zion, Herb, Hawkins, Daniels lineup. All defensive lineup with one outlet that teams shade. SAF.

How many times does this lineup have to fail to come to a realization it's not well balanced ?

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Herb -10 & Dyson -6 were the only 2 starters in the negative.

Showing the starters have enough offensive balance to counter playing Herb & Dyson's defense together but the defensive bench lineup of Nance, Zion, Herb, Hawkins, does not have a good enough offensive balance. As it has shown not to have worked over several games. Spotting Utah a 7pt lead & momentum 4th Q.

What's the offensive difference playing Herb & Dyson's defense with Nance & Hawkins vs Jonas & BI ?

Nance has no offensive gravity, whereas Jonas is a 3 level scorer that can create gaps though teams will live with both making their open 3's to favor containing the paint & Zion. Hawkins may have 3pt gravity but teams only need to shade him & pay the passing lane on the sole 3pt threat on court, whereas BI is also a 3 level scorer with the length to hit a tough mid range shot with added creation & playmaking ability the rookie does not currently have. (In the 3 games Pels have started Dyson with the rookie Hawkins they're 0-3. The mistake Green is making is he thinks he can plug & play Nance with Herb & Daniels with teams zoning Zion, he can't. This bench rotation is effectively playing 2 on 5 offensively. Reason, Zion has struggled to outplay apposing teams benches, including a weak Denver bench . Subsequently, fans are on Nance & Daniels for their offensive limitations & performances but it's also a direct result of their usage. Not factoring Nance's lack of production on the boards for a lineup struggling to put the ball in the basket. One & done.

I don't care that Utah had some home cooking, they were only +8 on the line, which this team should have been able to overcome but didn't. Another low IQ game & loss.

Teams will force the ball to the offensive weak links & live with the trade off. The starters were a + rotation because they had enough offensive balance. Green's response to this defensive strategy tied going into the 4th Q was to add another weak offensive link in Nance & downgrade Bi's 3 level scoring to a sole 3pt threat effectively making Nance, Herb & Daniels offensive dead weight.

I feel for Nance & Daniels as a result. Their offensive struggles is as much on Green as it is on their offensive limitations.

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Dyson, Herb, BI, Zion, Jonas - 8 games, 70mins +28 vs starters

Dyson, Hawkins, Herb, Zion, Nance - 3 games, 10mins -63 vs benches

I knew that defensive rotation was struggling but damn I didn't realize to what degree. it's being outscored by 6pts every minute on court & against apposing benches. Any surprise Utah gained a quick 7pt lead to start the 4th where NO's gained first possession. Ever wonder why having Zion on court couldn't beat Denver's weak bench.

Imagine that, a defensive lineup that can get stops but can't generate offense against a zone defense has not faired well but you know the drill .. defense generates offense. Yeah sure, if the lineups are offensively balanced. Which that one is not.

For the CJ fans harping on Daniels offense as a result of usage. Explain away the +28 in a 8 game 70min sample size vs starters. I'd love to hear it, lol.

What's scary is if Nance did not get injured. This team would have been riding defense, to more losses than currently 500. Where this team is too talented to be 500, even injured, I count at least 3 winnable games lost. Nance has been no different but there's a difference with playing Nance with CJ's offense vs teams zoning Zion with a bunch of defensive options on the court. Now fans want him gone, like Jonas last yr but usage has been an issue in both instances. Just so it's understood what "instances" I'm talking about....

Jonas an offensive big man has faired better playing with Herb & Daniels defense than CJ's offense
Nance a defensive big man has not faired better playing with Herb & Daniels defense than CJ offense

Where last yr CJ being implemented in to the picture, Jonas was looking to be phased out.
Now with Daniels being implemented in, fans are calling for Nance's head to be phased out.

Get a clue.

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Talk of trading 2's for 3's & losing the efficiency battle has come up as to why the Pels lost this match. It's not. Pels didn't lose this match because they traded 2's for 3's.

Both teams had 88 possessions. Pels shot 50% from the field with 22 of the 88 shots coming from 3 on 31.8% efficiency. Jazz shot 42% from the field, with 48 of their attempts coming from 3 on 35.4% efficiency. Do the math. Jazz didn't win because they shot better from 3 than Pels did from 2.

Jazz won because of the other efficiency battles outside of made FG's

Pels shot 17-25 from the FT line, Jazz 23-28. They left 8 free points on the line & were -6 to the Jazz with 3 FTA's separating the 2 teams. It's called a FREE throw for a reason. Pels left basically 3, 3pt possessions on the FT line. They were a 2 3pt possession difference in made FT's for Utah & 1 3pt possession difference to calls made, in a 2pt loss.

Utah had 48 total rebounds, 11 offensive. Pels 43 total, 9 offensive. Utah were +2 in offensive boards & 2nd chance opportunity, which is potentially 6pts & additional 2 potential 3pt possessions needed.

These 2 categories alone were 6 potential 3pt possessions needed for what was given up in their lack of efficiency. (18 pts)

In short, Pels didn't lose because they traded their less efficiency 3's for more efficient 2's. They would have had to make 6, 3's in comparison for the lack of efficiency in these 2 categories to break even. Without 3 of their top 3, 3pt shooters, shooting more 3's at the 30% clip apposed to 50% from inside, was not the answer. Better FT shooting, better rebounding & better defense, where securing rebounds alone is a part of that needed defense (Utah +2, 11 offensive boards), is your answer.

It's an absolute must this team needs to get better on the FT line & on the boards. What % are they shooting as a team?. Wouldn't shock me to find out it's under 75% on gifted points. That stat, will cost you a few games, like this one.

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Part of the reason Pels struggle with Utah is the big man/depth matchup. While Lauri didn't play. Utah have a lengthy shot blocker in Kessler & 2 stretch big men to Pels lone answer in Jonas, both in which effect his post game, rebounding & defense. What I don't understand is NO's doesn't seem to know Jonas was an effective pick n roll man before developing his post game where the movement would have help against trying to post him up against Kessler's length. Jazz shot blocker being twice as effective in the zone containing Zion without Pels having their shooters available to effectively stretch him & with Daniels struggling by design. You'll notice Daniels didn't have many floaters going over the last 2 as he struggled from range.

Thing is, the starters with Daniels struggling offensively were plus value with his defense, only him & Herb were negative value in this loss because of the zone defense against the defensive lineup with Nance 4th Q. Subbing Naji in for Daniels, is how Zion remained a net positive. Daniels -6 as Jazz opened their 7pt lead.

This shouldn't be an indictment on Daniels starting. It's the best place for him to be. Starting you get to see if he has his offense going out the gate to ride his defense early to set a tone for the game. If he doesn't then you can bring CJ in to adjust as necessary... It allows for the in game reps needed for him. None is saying Daniels should close over CJ, unless his defense is needed. Same way Jonas started last yr but Nance finished for defense. If Jonas can do it, so can CJ.

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With the big lead, would like to see a play run for Zion to take a 3.

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Rough night for Zeller. Subbed in 3Q up 29, Sixers cut the lead to 21. Subbed in 4thQ up 19, Sixers cut the lead to 10 & as a result, Sixers got a 30pt game to withing 3 possessions when they made it an 8pt game with 3mns left off that momentum.

If Zeller is outplaying Nance, this team needs an upgrade, desperately.

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This team is odd AF. Over their last 9 games they beat Denver, Mavs, Kings 2x, Clippers, Sixers but 2 of the 3 losses, came against a 4 win team, the only sub 500 team faced in this stretch of games, with the 3rd loss a 1 pt loss to the Western top seed, Wolves.

WTF.

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Touched on this last night. With Embiid out, Sixers started Batum & had Bamba coming off the bench. Jonas was +18, Zeller -9. It's the difference between a 27pt lead which Pels had 3rd Q & 10 pt win finish.

Pels had 40 rebs to 30 total & were + 5 on the offensive.

If Embiid was playing, It's not hard to assume both Zion & Jonas would not have gone 19-21 from the field, not hard to assume potentially less rebounding efficiency.. etc.. With the way the bench played, in particular backup C against a thinned front court without Embiid, It's not hard to assume, this would have been an L. A Denver like collapse, as they almost did collapse without Embiid playing. Sixers got to within 8 with a couple mins left, after going down 30.

What is Utah's strongest/deepest position ? Centre .

I don't know if he's available but it was rumored that Magic could potentially offer Issac for Lavine to improve their spacing. If Isaac is potentially on the market. I'm thinking (Nance, Kira & pick) for (Issac). At 6'11 he can guard 1-5 & potentially hit an open 3. If that rumored Bulls trade has any legs... Usaax is expiring in 25 where i'd imagine the Bulls would prefer pick capital to his expiring.

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NO's fans think, my posts for Daniels to start is off the back of a hot stretch of games , it isn't. Anyone following this thread knows I've been a proponent of CJ starting off the bench in a Manu super sub role since he was traded here. I was in favor of playing the more efficient, lengthy defender, floor spacer Murphy in his place so Zion & BI would get higher usage & CJ could be more of a 1-2 option off the bench with his ability to create, allowing Zion & BI to up their usage as starters.

Take Last night for instance, first game back from injury & CJ led all in shot attempts. NO's fans saw him go 3-3 from the field which was nice & sorely missing, with 3 of the teams best shooters out but the issue with CJ remains his ball & shot dominance on poorer efficiency, with Zion & BI on court.. Not his ability to space, which is why my original preference to Daniels was starting Murphy.

CJ 16 shots (7-16) 20 pts
Zion 12 shots (11-13) 33 pts
Jonas 9 shots (8-9) 19 pts
BI 7 shots (4-7) 15 pts
Herb 8 shots (3-8) 7 pts

Since arriving. CJ, as he & Dame did in Portland, has dominated the ball & shot attempts on poorer efficiency. With Daniels elite defense starting over a tough stretch of games, the starters are +28 with the bench faulting on the 6-3 record.

Over this 9 game stretch, It's the bench that is losing it's minutes, not Daniels with the starters, even the Utah game where he struggled offensively. In particular, the -63 defensive lineup of Nance, Zion, Herb, Hawkins & Daniels. Replace Daniels in that bench lineup with CJ, the zone isn't as effective, fans wouldn't be calling for Nance's head, NO's probably win 2 if not all 3 of the recent losses vs Wolves & Utah where the offense went cold 4th Q for several minutes in a 1pt Wolves loss & 2pt Utah loss with a big 4thQ bench drought in both losses. Team would/could be 8-1 if they had CJ's shooting off the bench.

Starting Daniels, you can set a defensive tone for the game, you'd have the luxury of CJ's instant offense to come in & change pace if Daniels is struggling offensively at the earliest point of a game, which gives more time to potentially turn things around, if necessary. It is the best place for Daniels to get his in game reps & experience. Doesn't hurt the lineup has been a big positive thus far to boot.

If you are looking to properly balance everything. Starting Daniels is the solution. It addresses his development & defensive continuity with the starters. It gets his elite defense acclimated faster than spot minutes off the bench

I made this same case with Pascal when the Raptors won the Championship. I made a similar argument for Pascal to start, was met with the he can't shoot response where Pascal had not shown any ability to be consistent from 3 at this point. My argument was with Kawhi & Green generating TO's, Pascal' would be a handful in transition. Needless to say they started him from the spring training experiment & as the season progressed, so did his shot & confidence. As they say. the rest is history.

Dig up my Raptors post history. You will find a trade suggestion of 2yrs Derozan for a rental Kawhi. At the point of this suggestion, everyone was talking about Lakers & Boston pick packages Raptors fans ridiculed the idea, too weak an offer for Kawhi, they said. Not understanding the leverage of Kawhi threatening to walk. Raptor casuals were upset at the thought of losing their long time star & fan favorite but like this NO's squad, tough decisions need to be made. Post Kawhi trade is where I push for Pascal who couldn't shoot to start to take advantage of his ability in transition paired with the defensive upgrades of Kawhi & Green forcing TO's to push the pace. Yeah but back then he couldn't space the floor.... till he could with the allowed opportunity

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I can't wait for Murphy to return. It's going to be fun all the way around lol.

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I know most people can't be bothered to look or care, so for fun ..

Bench - Pascal 2016 - 14.3% from 3 regular season - 7 attempts
Bench - Pascal 2017 - 22% from 3 regular season -132 attempts
Bench - Pascal 2015 - 36% from 3 regular season - 214 attempts / 279% PO's - 104 attempts

Starter - Pascal 2019 championship -35% regular season - 359 attempts. / 42.5% PO's - 189 attempts

An outlier maybe but what you see here is am inconsistent shooter showing incremental improvements on low volume off the bench making a leap to 42% on 189 attempts during their PO run because he was getting consistent starter minutes, built confidence & continuity. with the trust given in opportunity.

Pascals range was a legit concern with a 3yr sample size & you see their argument for spacing. My view was he brought switchable defense, speed & a transition dimension to the incoming starters Kawhi & Green, who have a reputation of generating TO's & deflections. His improved shooting was merely a welcome surprise. Funny what some consistent minutes & trust in opportunity can do for a players game & confidence. Pascal made a leap from 27% on 104 attempts in the PO's 2018 to 42% on 189 in 2019 going from bench to starter.

Here's the issue I have with removing Dyson from starting. His rotation is +28 & if the bench had any form of shooting to bust the zone for Zion, NO's record would be 8-1 in this 9 game span which allows for Dyson to develop with the starters for confidence & continuity. He struggles offensively early, NO's have the rest of the game to adjust.

When I called for Pascal to start he was bringing defensive switch ability & transition speed to the table.

Dyson in addition to bringing his elite man defense & ball denial at the point of attack for a team playing a centre that is slow of foot with 4 offensive options with CJ on court. He also brings added size & rebounding to the table at the PG position for a team that struggles to rebound. Combined defensively with Herb, he allows Herb to roam. which has made Jonas, Zion & BI offensive efficiency, passable defensively. A big bonus is the lack of touches required for Daniels outside an occasional drive & open 3, in comparison to CJ's more dominant, less efficient higher usage game which takes touches & shots away from the more efficient duo of Zion & BI. Where Jonas & BI's 3 level scoring ability/gravity & playmaking, helps to offset Zions paint gravity with little to no spacing. It;s not ideal spacing for Zion's game but Zion is no defender himself either where Daniels is head & shoulder a better option than CJ. If Herb & Daniels can occasionally knock down an open look or 2. It's in these reps NO's will build Dysons confidence & experience for later gain. He struggles, you have CJ to bring in as needed. None is saying Daniels has to close games over CJ, unless it's warranted in play. Both him & herb having their hands forced to space in these scenarios is going to pay dividends down the road. There's no greater learning curve than experience. With a +28 rating over a tough stretch of games, it's not as though the move/idea is dragging the team down... It's the bench that has struggled during CJ's time out.

Jonas has more PO wins as a starter than CJ has PO appearances. He's reached the ECF's once & semi's twice. Over his 11yr career getting drafted to a tanking Raptors team, getting traded to a 22 win Memphis team that traded their franchise centre for him & PG for a rookie Morant, then getting traded to NO's who hadn't made the PO's in the Zion era, with no 3J all yr in Memphis & no Zion all yr in NO's. Jonas has only missed the PO's twice & by play in.., yet Green has no issues subbing him late for a 3rd stringer for defense, if were talking about veteran earned minutes & respect. However, it is, Jonas personal game sacrifice that makes the teams he's on what they are. Team first... Daniels getting these reps in without harming wins is not something that should stop because CJ has earned a right to start over a rookie with high upside. It's overall what best moving forward. Not just for Daniels but the defensive ceiling of the team come PO's

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With up to 6 key rotation players out at once. Trey all yr, Zion several games/rest, BI a couple games, Nance recently & CJ 9 games, while 2nd in SOS

Pels are currently ranked 7th in defense, 10 in offense, with a +6 net rating.

The softest parts of their schedule 19 games in, Memphis, Detroit, Utah 2x. Where the first Utah match was mile high on the back end of 3 games in 4 nights. If you're counting, 15 of the 19 games have come against contenders & the top half of the West. With CJ & Murphy finally back to address the missing spacing issues to date & the inevitable ease in schedule. I expect this team to at some point in the near future to be top 5 in both offense & defense, when the schedule starts to balances itself out.

#1 defense OKC - (Spurs, Pistons, Bulls 2x, Portland). With losses to Denver, NO's, Kings, GS -(with Curry), Wolves & Sixers. Best wins coming against LA, Suns & the Cavs. (4 wins against PO teams/contenders).

#7 defense NO's - (Memphis, Detroit, Utah 2x). With losses coming against Denver, Wolves 2x, Mavs, GS, Utah 2x, Atlanta. Best wins coming against Mavs, Denver, Kings 2x, Sixers, Clippers, OKC. (7 wins against PO teams/contenders). All while experiencing a good amount of key injuries.

Nearly back to full health - Nance. I'd be dissappointed if NO's could bot accomplish being top 5 in both noffense & defense. As I have been stating for a few pages, the offensive boost of CJ & Murphu, is going to play into the defensive rating...

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This is how I'd balance out the team & minutes.

Jonas - (Nance/Zion) - Zeller
Zion - Murphy
BI - Naji - Ryan
Herb - Hawkins
Daniels - CJ - Jose

CJ the super sub for either Herb or Daniels. Hawkins the traditional 6th man, with Jose as 3rd string quality depth.

Hopefully we can agree CJ is more of a PG than Daniels at this point. With Daniels starting & CJ off the bench Zion & BI would initiate the starters offense with Herb & Daniels tasked with defense, bringing up & taking care of the ball.. running the 2nd unit with CJ as the super sub, It allows for better minute distribution & development for Daniels & Hawkins, with Jose the one losing minutes to the rookies stepping up.

Close games situationally & by rewarding play.

Deadline target - Jonathan Isaac, mobile 6'11 1-5 defender who can occasionally stick an open 3. At 17m, Nace & Kira match salary

Isaac still has control over his contract but is expiring in 25 if injuries are a concern moving forward. His expiring is coinciding with shedding salary for BI's extension. if NO's successfully draft a big man in 24 which I think they will with a couple firsts available for at the very least a cheap reliable backup. NO's can potentially shed. A 2yr extension with team option for Jonas & decide if they want to extend Isaac expiring, baring factors like injury or if the rookie big man pick pans out or not. With the team option, NO's can move Jonas to the bench im favor of the developing big man if they hit on the pick for controlled depth & cap versatility.

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A bench unit featuring Zion - Murphy - (Naji/Herb/Daniels) - Hawkins & CJ should be the supped up version of the early successful unit of Jonas - Ryan - Herb - Hawkins & CJ.

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Are NO's going to keep doing this...

Starters with another negative start with CJ's spacing over Daniels defense, against a 3 win Spurs team, without Wemby. Gave up 31 first Q points & Spurs feel like they can win this one down only 2 at the half against a much more talented roster.

If not for Jonas having a clear advantage without Wemby, putting up 18 & 7 on 8 shots, this had the makings of an ugly half.

The spacing argument with CJ, the team is currently 3-13 from 3, with Spurs shooting 50% from the field. I can tell you how this team could go 3-13 while holding the Spurs to 40% shooting but I don't think at this point it will make a difference. You've made up your mind to ride CJ for better or worse.

Try a little experiment & start the 3rd with Daniels defense. & compare halves.