Bears 2023 thread V

[CjayC]

I'm afraid it won't matter if Fields is still QB. I would hope the Bears at least bring in a veteran from somewhere to compete with Justin for the starting job.

I'm tired of the *Put talent around an average QB strategy*. It seems like the Bears have been doing it for the last 20 years between Grossman, Cutler, Trubisky, and now some are suggesting we run it back with Fields..

Fields' flaws are his flaws. If you don't think you can fix his: Spotty accuracy (On anything not a moonball, or a short pass), Field vision, Footwork in the pocket, hesitation to pull the trigger (leading to sacks, and throwaways), ability to read defensive leverage, ability to throw with anticipation, turnover issues, etc.. Then he's not the guy if you can reset it with a cheaper contract. He's 'A' guy you can win with, IF you surround him with superior talent (Which should always be the goal regardless of whose your QB), but he'll never be 'THE' guy that elevates your team to overachieve.

You are 100% correct. The problem of course is what you proposed ("Nail the QB first this time please") is far easier said than done. Every team wants to nail the QB the first time. It is why the NFL is littered with 1st round QB draft picks that are not "that guy".

If you don't land "that guy", what do you do with the rest of your team?

You keep swinging until you find a viable replacement, or maybe you do an LA Rams, have a great team in place, and pull a trade for a Stafford, Cousins type that can take you over the finish line. Not gonna pretend there's 1 singular way to reach the goal, but a big common denominator throughout the game's history seems to be good QB play. I understand Ryan Poles doesn't have that opportunity to just have infinite at-bats so I hope he gets it right for his sake. If not the next guy needs to keep swinging. Keep building the team through the draft, Free Agency, and retain our own talent otherwise. If the new QB busts the world doesn't stop. Keep your eyes peeled, there might be a Dak, Hurts, or Lamar in the draft. Small likelihood, but it happens sometimes. I think there's a lot of nuance here. If Poles is building the team and getting impact players I'm sure he'll get some leeway to find something that works at the QB position. It just depends.

I would've loved nothing more than to have two Top 5 picks that we could've used to load up on other skill positions, but with the lack of meaningful progress in Justin's game the writing is on the wall if Poles has the opportunity to move off of him.

[mack2354]

I see some chatter here about trading back and still taking a QB in round 1. Or MHJ and another QB with our pick. This all seems like crazy talk.

If we are moving on from Fields, we are taking a QB with pick 1. No time in history did a QB needy team, move back in draft with top QB prospects on the board and then select the better QB in the draft. And if this was possible, would anyone think the Chicago Bears are savvy enough to pull it off?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What makes it crazy or not is if you believe the Bears are a "QB needy team" or not. Sure, if you think Fields is trash then you pick a QB that is rated the highest and hope for the best. If you think Fields is an "okay" QB that is being held back some by the scheme/play calling then picking the BPA regardless of position is the better call. By your logic it wouldn't make sense for any team ever to draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds if they owned a pick in the 1st round. If you needed a QB bad enough to draft so high why not take the better prospect in the first? If you didn't need a QB then why waste a pick in a round that usually projects to be a starter for a player you don't project to start on your team?

You are correct that teams who are QB needy won't pass on a higher rated prospect for a lower rated prospect. I'm not convinced the Bears have given up on Fields. We could have drafted Bryce Young or CJ Stroud if we thought Fields was trash. Although we have lost a lot of games and Fields hasn't been playing at a Pro Bowl Level he hasn't been playing like trash. His last 5 games have been actually very good minus the fumbles. If he plays at his current level and can clean up the fumbles for the rest of the season, I can totally see Poles giving Fields another year and maybe drafting a 2nd tier QB.

Yes, my logic says if you need a QB, I would not draft one in the second, third or any round after the first. It’s a Hail Mary pick that is hoping that your outlier pick will become Purdy/Hurts which are once every decade shots..

In last 10 years of NFL QB drafts:

Only 9 QBs have been taken in the second round: 3 winners, Hurts, Jimmy G, d Carr are the only winners.

15 QBs drafted in third round- Zero quality starters.

Rounds 4-7, 72 QBs drafted, 2 winners Dak and Purdy.

ROUND 1 -picks 12-32, 6 QBs taken, Lamar only legit.

Where do you get a quality QB: Round 1 top 12 picks: 24 Drafted = 12 good QBs.

So in 10 years:
picks 1-12= 12 Starters on 24 picks.

Picks 13-224= 6 starters out of 101 picks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I appreciate the time you took to research in your reply. When I think of trading back with the #1 pick I usually only think of trading back to pick #2 or #3. I wouldn't trade back far like we did with our #1 pick this year. I am leaning more towards your second example of crazy talk which was MHJ and another QB with our pick. In this example the QB we take with our pick would still fall in your picks 1-12 range. Likely 4-8 range at worst so should yield a better than 50% hit rate than the 12 out of 24 rate of the picks 1-12 of the last 10 years.

[Almost Retired]

I see some chatter here about trading back and still taking a QB in round 1. Or MHJ and another QB with our pick. This all seems like crazy talk.

If we are moving on from Fields, we are taking a QB with pick 1. No time in history did a QB needy team, move back in draft with top QB prospects on the board and then select the better QB in the draft. And if this was possible, would anyone think the Chicago Bears are savvy enough to pull it off?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What makes it crazy or not is if you believe the Bears are a "QB needy team" or not. Sure, if you think Fields is trash then you pick a QB that is rated the highest and hope for the best. If you think Fields is an "okay" QB that is being held back some by the scheme/play calling then picking the BPA regardless of position is the better call. By your logic it wouldn't make sense for any team ever to draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds if they owned a pick in the 1st round. If you needed a QB bad enough to draft so high why not take the better prospect in the first? If you didn't need a QB then why waste a pick in a round that usually projects to be a starter for a player you don't project to start on your team?

You are correct that teams who are QB needy won't pass on a higher rated prospect for a lower rated prospect. I'm not convinced the Bears have given up on Fields. We could have drafted Bryce Young or CJ Stroud if we thought Fields was trash. Although we have lost a lot of games and Fields hasn't been playing at a Pro Bowl Level he hasn't been playing like trash. His last 5 games have been actually very good minus the fumbles. If he plays at his current level and can clean up the fumbles for the rest of the season, I can totally see Poles giving Fields another year and maybe drafting a 2nd tier QB.

Yes, my logic says if you need a QB, I would not draft one in the second, third or any round after the first. It’s a Hail Mary pick that is hoping that your outlier pick will become Purdy/Hurts which are once every decade shots..

In last 10 years of NFL QB drafts:

Only 9 QBs have been taken in the second round: 3 winners, Hurts, Jimmy G, d Carr are the only winners.

15 QBs drafted in third round- Zero quality starters.

Rounds 4-7, 72 QBs drafted, 2 winners Dak and Purdy.

ROUND 1 -picks 12-32, 6 QBs taken, Lamar only legit.

Where do you get a quality QB: Round 1 top 12 picks: 24 Drafted = 12 good QBs.

So in 10 years:
picks 1-12= 12 Starters on 24 picks.

Picks 13-224= 6 starters out of 101 picks.

Very good points. Looking at mock drafts and looking at the number of Teams that need a QB I think there is a very good possibility that four QBs get drafted in the Top 12: Caleb, Maye, Nix and Daniels. And two more may go by the end of the First Round: Penix and McCarthy if he comes out. I'm not sold on Maye and I've watched him several times. Perfect size. Cannon arm. Maybe he would look better if he had better receivers. Caleb has some Mahomes like traits, but more fumble prone. And would Mahomes be on every other TV commercial if he had been drafted elsewhere than KC? Having Kelce in his prime and Tyreke Hill and a coach that's a bona fide offensive genius sure helped. How many promising potential QBs just failed because of the situation they were drafted into?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chi town]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

[CjayC]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

He might fall some spots because of a bad neck injury that nearly ended his career, but some team is gonna get lucky.

[panthermark]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

Offense is a bigger wreck than the Defense.

BTW, imagine the current defense right now with Carter at DT. Sweat, Carter Billings and Walker. THAT is how you make a Cover 2 work.

Of course, trying to imagine Borom or some other rookie at RT is scary.

[Chi town]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

Offense is a bigger wreck than the Defense.

BTW, imagine the current defense right now with Carter at DT. Sweat, Carter Billings and Walker. THAT is how you make a Cover 2 work.

Of course, trying to imagine Borom or some other rookie at RT is scary.

You draft your QB and then with Bears pick you take Latu if Nabers is off the board. I think Bears will be 7th pick. I only take Bowers or Nabers over Latu.

CW and one of them would be a great start. Obviously would love to trade back and get a 2nd if Bears are 4th pick.

[panthermark]

Watch on YouTube

[HearshotKDS]

this week's simulated draft:

1 cards - caleb
2 bears - marvin
3 pats - maye
4 wash - verse
5 - giants - nabers
6 cowboys (trade w/ bears) - fashanu

24 bears - odunze + 2025 1st

marvin/DJ/odunze/kmet potential for best receiving corps ever. 2 years after the bears had maybe one of the worst

I'm afraid it won't matter if Fields is still QB. I would hope the Bears at least bring in a veteran from somewhere to compete with Justin for the starting job.

I'm tired of the *Put talent around an average QB strategy*. It seems like the Bears have been trying this (To varying degrees of success) for the last 20 years between Grossman, Cutler, Trubisky, and now some are suggesting we run it back with Fields. Nail the QB first this time please.

Fields' flaws are his flaws. If you don't think you can fix his: Spotty accuracy (On anything not a moonball, or a short pass), Field vision, Pocket presence, Footwork in the pocket, hesitation to pull the trigger (leading to throwaways, turndowns leaving yards on the field, and sacks), ability to read defensive leverage, ability to throw with anticipation, turnover issues, etc.. Then he's not the guy if you can reset it with a cheaper contract. He's 'A' guy you can win with, IF you surround him with superior talent (Which should always be the goal regardless of whose your QB), but he'll never be 'THE' guy that elevates your team to overachieve.

Why do you see Cutler and Trubiskey as attempts to build around average QBs versus the (failed) attempts to acquire a franchise QB that the Bears thought they were? Bears traded 2 first round picks for Cutler and traded up to take Trubisky 2nd overall as the first QB off the board - thats the opposite of the Put talent around an average QB strategy. That's investing a ton of resources to get the best QB possible strat...

[molepharmer]

Was curious where teams with 4, 5, 6 or 7 wins typically drafted but couldn't find a site with that info. So......over the last 10 drafts, shown below is the draft position for 4, 5, 6 and 7 win teams. Note, the lowest pick by a 4 win team has been pick #2, so that's where the table starts. The lone 5 win team to pick 9th was Det in 2020. The single 7 win team that picked 17th was Clev in 2018

..................... #wins and pick frequency
pick#............4..........5...........6.........7
2...................1..........0............0..........0
3...................7..........0............0..........0
4...................8..........0............0..........0
5...................5..........5............0..........0
6...................3..........7............2..........0
7...................1..........7............4..........0
8...................0..........4............7..........2
9...................0..........1............6..........2
10.................0...........0............4..........4
11.................0...........0............0..........6
12.................0...........0............0..........7
13.................0...........0............0..........9
14.................0...........0............0..........6
15.................0...........0............0..........4
16.................0...........0............0..........4
17.................0...........0............0..........1

To possibly clarify, 45 teams won 7 games from 2013-2022, 23 teams won 6 games, 24 teams had 5 wins and 25 had 4 wins.

[CjayC]

I'm afraid it won't matter if Fields is still QB. I would hope the Bears at least bring in a veteran from somewhere to compete with Justin for the starting job.

I'm tired of the *Put talent around an average QB strategy*. It seems like the Bears have been trying this (To varying degrees of success) for the last 20 years between Grossman, Cutler, Trubisky, and now some are suggesting we run it back with Fields. Nail the QB first this time please.

Fields' flaws are his flaws. If you don't think you can fix his: Spotty accuracy (On anything not a moonball, or a short pass), Field vision, Pocket presence, Footwork in the pocket, hesitation to pull the trigger (leading to throwaways, turndowns leaving yards on the field, and sacks), ability to read defensive leverage, ability to throw with anticipation, turnover issues, etc.. Then he's not the guy if you can reset it with a cheaper contract. He's 'A' guy you can win with, IF you surround him with superior talent (Which should always be the goal regardless of whose your QB), but he'll never be 'THE' guy that elevates your team to overachieve.

Why do you see Cutler and Trubiskey as attempts to build around average QBs versus the (failed) attempts to acquire a franchise QB that the Bears thought they were? Bears traded 2 first round picks for Cutler and traded up to take Trubisky 2nd overall as the first QB off the board - thats the opposite of the Put talent around an average QB strategy. That's investing a ton of resources to get the best QB possible strat...

Big picture those guys were average at best. /they went out and acquired talent after the fact Marshell, Jefferry, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Kmet. Cohen was fun, Jordan Howard had some okay years, etc... I guess they thought they were acquiring the best at the time. It was a massive failure, but the attempt is laudable. Anyway Justin isn't likely to get it, and unlike under Cutty, or Trubisky we have a chance to move on, basically no strings attached (Except for having to use the capital on a new QB). I don't think Fields is a Marvin Harrison away from getting it. We mostly got all of our picks, and the guys we need to be are mostly under decent team control. If they got the chance move on, then they should.

[Dresden]

The fact that the hit rate drops off dramatically for QB's taken after pick 12 speaks to the fact that if there is a QB in the draft that teams feel will be a quality starter, someone will take them in the top 12, because there are always teams hungry for a good QB. If no one thought highly enough of you to move up into the top 12 to take you, then chances are you aren't that good.

So yeah, I could see 4 QB's going top 12 this year. It's going to be really hard to evaluate Maye v Caleb v Nix v Daniels, esp. when for teams like the Bears who could possibly come away with MHJ and still get Nix or Daniels, who might end up being the best QB's anyway. I mean there's raw talent, there's age, there's injury history, there's style of play, there's intangibles. A lot to figure out.

[Dresden]

I'm tired of the *Put talent around an average QB strategy*. It seems like the Bears have been trying this (To varying degrees of success) for the last 20 years between Grossman, Cutler, Trubisky, and now some are suggesting we run it back with Fields. Nail the QB first this time please.

Fields' flaws are his flaws. If you don't think you can fix his: Spotty accuracy (On anything not a moonball, or a short pass), Field vision, Pocket presence, Footwork in the pocket, hesitation to pull the trigger (leading to throwaways, turndowns leaving yards on the field, and sacks), ability to read defensive leverage, ability to throw with anticipation, turnover issues, etc.. Then he's not the guy if you can reset it with a cheaper contract. He's 'A' guy you can win with, IF you surround him with superior talent (Which should always be the goal regardless of whose your QB), but he'll never be 'THE' guy that elevates your team to overachieve.

Why do you see Cutler and Trubiskey as attempts to build around average QBs versus the (failed) attempts to acquire a franchise QB that the Bears thought they were? Bears traded 2 first round picks for Cutler and traded up to take Trubisky 2nd overall as the first QB off the board - thats the opposite of the Put talent around an average QB strategy. That's investing a ton of resources to get the best QB possible strat...

Big picture those guys were average at best. /they went out and acquired talent after the fact Marshell, Jefferry, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Kmet. Cohen was fun, Jordan Howard had some okay years, etc... I guess they thought they were acquiring the best at the time. It was a massive failure, but the attempt is laudable. Anyway Justin isn't likely to get it, and unlike under Cutty, or Trubisky we have a chance to move on, basically no strings attached (Except for having to use the capital on a new QB). I don't think Fields is a Marvin Harrison away from getting it. We mostly got all of our picks, and the guys we need to be are mostly under decent team control. If they got the chance move on, then they should.

I think Cutler was the last really serious attempt the Bears made to get a quality, proven NFL QB. And he took them to the NFC title game one year. He just had some flaws that ended up preventing him from being elite. But at least the Bears were in the hunt when they had him, and that pack of receivers.

While I don't think this is the way to go, if the Bears did draft MJH, and then traded or signed a decent NFL starter for their QB, I think they could be a playoff team next year. Someone along the lines of Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith.

I watched that game last night, and Geno Smith made some very good throws. Throws that we've only seen Justin make a few times in his career. Long throws, off balance, right on the money, right where they had to be. It made me think how much better we'd look with a QB who could throw like that.

[fleet]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

Offense is a bigger wreck than the Defense.

BTW, imagine the current defense right now with Carter at DT. Sweat, Carter Billings and Walker. [b]THAT is how you make a Cover 2 work[/b].

Of course, trying to imagine Borom or some other rookie at RT is scary.

And then imagine drafting Latu, or signing Hunter. The way I would decide which way to go with the 9th pick, is taking the best player available. That is always the right way to go. Trying to look for need in one place over the other by taking an inferior player is the road to hell. Carter is rare at a harder to fill position. Way more than right tackles. Wrong decision for Poles.

[HearshotKDS]

I'm tired of the *Put talent around an average QB strategy*. It seems like the Bears have been trying this (To varying degrees of success) for the last 20 years between Grossman, Cutler, Trubisky, and now some are suggesting we run it back with Fields. Nail the QB first this time please.

Fields' flaws are his flaws. If you don't think you can fix his: Spotty accuracy (On anything not a moonball, or a short pass), Field vision, Pocket presence, Footwork in the pocket, hesitation to pull the trigger (leading to throwaways, turndowns leaving yards on the field, and sacks), ability to read defensive leverage, ability to throw with anticipation, turnover issues, etc.. Then he's not the guy if you can reset it with a cheaper contract. He's 'A' guy you can win with, IF you surround him with superior talent (Which should always be the goal regardless of whose your QB), but he'll never be 'THE' guy that elevates your team to overachieve.

Why do you see Cutler and Trubiskey as attempts to build around average QBs versus the (failed) attempts to acquire a franchise QB that the Bears thought they were? Bears traded 2 first round picks for Cutler and traded up to take Trubisky 2nd overall as the first QB off the board - thats the opposite of the Put talent around an average QB strategy. That's investing a ton of resources to get the best QB possible strat...

Big picture those guys were average at best. /they went out and acquired talent after the fact Marshell, Jefferry, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Kmet. Cohen was fun, Jordan Howard had some okay years, etc... I guess they thought they were acquiring the best at the time. It was a massive failure, but the attempt is laudable. Anyway Justin isn't likely to get it, and unlike under Cutty, or Trubisky we have a chance to move on, basically no strings attached (Except for having to use the capital on a new QB). I don't think Fields is a Marvin Harrison away from getting it. We mostly got all of our picks, and the guys we need to be are mostly under decent team control. If they got the chance move on, then they should.

I guess thats what im getting at - this is not a "building around a mediocre QB" issue, its a "not pulling the plug on a failed project" issue. Grossman (and then Kyle Orton) teams are a good example of accepting your QB is deeply flawed but putting the best team (mostly D for this example) around them. Trubisky and Cutler though were huge investments in guys they were expecting to be difference makers, but with hindsight we now know they were not difference makers. There's definitely a good argument to move on from Fields, but it doesnt sound like you realize there's at best a 50/50 drafting Maye or Williams is drafting Trubisky or trading for Cutler all over again - its hard to be a good QB in the NFL. Careful what you wish for.

[HearshotKDS]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

Offense is a bigger wreck than the Defense.

BTW, imagine the current defense right now with Carter at DT. Sweat, Carter Billings and Walker. [b]THAT is how you make a Cover 2 work[/b].

Of course, trying to imagine Borom or some other rookie at RT is scary.

And then imagine drafting Latu, or signing Hunter. The way I would decide which way to go with the 9th pick, is taking the best player available. That is always the right way to go. Trying to look for need in one place over the other by taking an inferior player is the road to hell. Carter is rare at a harder to fill position. Way more than right tackles. Wrong decision for Poles.

Ive been posting about this all thread, but I wanted the Bears to sign this guy in FA - https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/kaleb-mcgary/46912 which would have let them pick the BPA in the draft. Darnell has been a fine pick, and likely will be a good RT for a long time but being a good pick is not the same as being the best pick. McGary+Carter >> Wright+Jones/Dexter(hes going to be a 1T when the Bears start winning games btw) and I do think there was a very obvious and clear need/case to be made for the Bears to acquire both those players. Poles decided to pencil in what he was going to do with his #1 before the draft happened and lost all flexibility to react to the draft because of it - its something Pace did all the time and is a team building decision I hate even if it is sometimes unavoidable. Especially for me because its an "I told you so" situation, I wanted McGary going into FA - McGlinchey got $17.5M AAC Kaleb got 11.5M and has been a better tackle so I have especially strong feelings about this, but by making imo better decisions Poles could have had RT settled for 3 years with a very good Zone tackle as well as the best rookie DT the NFL has seen in awhile. AS opposed to a very good RT rookie and hoping either MIA or BAL doesnt pay their 3Ts so we can steal them with our checkbook.

[dice]

Was curious where teams with 4, 5, 6 or 7 wins typically drafted but couldn't find a site with that info. So......over the last 10 drafts, shown below is the draft position for 4, 5, 6 and 7 win teams. Note, the lowest pick by a 4 win team has been pick #2, so that's where the table starts. The lone 5 win team to pick 9th was Det in 2020. The single 7 win team that picked 17th was Clev in 2018

..................... #wins and pick frequency
pick#............4..........5...........6.........7
2...................1..........0............0..........0
3...................7..........0............0..........0
4...................8..........0............0..........0
5...................5..........5............0..........0
6...................3..........7............2..........0
7...................1..........7............4..........0
8...................0..........4............7..........2
9...................0..........1............6..........2
10.................0...........0............4..........4
11.................0...........0............0..........6
12.................0...........0............0..........7
13.................0...........0............0..........9
14.................0...........0............0..........6
15.................0...........0............0..........4
16.................0...........0............0..........4
17.................0...........0............0..........1

To possibly clarify, 45 teams won 7 games from 2013-2022, 23 teams won 6 games, 24 teams had 5 wins and 25 had 4 wins.

that 7th win can be pretty costly in terms of draft position. which makes sense given that it's the crossover from bad to the nfl's designed mushy middle of mediocrity

[dice]

The only guy I’m interested in for the D with our first.

https://youtu.be/94sC37Afedw?si=QZk_flErXnixHLyD

Offense is a bigger wreck than the Defense.

BTW, imagine the current defense right now with Carter at DT. Sweat, Carter Billings and Walker. [b]THAT is how you make a Cover 2 work[/b].

Of course, trying to imagine Borom or some other rookie at RT is scary.

And then imagine drafting Latu, or signing Hunter. The way I would decide which way to go with the 9th pick, is taking the best player available. That is always the right way to go. Trying to look for need in one place over the other by taking an inferior player is the road to hell. Carter is rare at a harder to fill position. Way more than right tackles. Wrong decision for Poles.

i don't think the decision to trade down from carter had much at all to do with the position he plays

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Penix is throwing some absolute dimes in the first half, making Nix look JV.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Nix is mounting a comebacks. Feels like a heavyweight fight