Bears 2023 thread V

[dice]

If the bears are going to move on from Fields, and right now, I can't see any reason not to, I would guess there's less than a 5% chance they don't take a QB with the CAR pick, rather than waiting to take one with their own pick. QB is so important, you don't try to get cute and take a guy that everyone else thinks is the 3rd best QB in the class, even if it does net you MHJ. And if the Bears evaluate the QB's and think Nix is #1, I would guess other teams will too, and so he will go in the top 2 or 3 picks. And even if they don't, there's no way to know if another team won't move up to take him at 3,4,5. And then you're really screwed. Poles can't afford a fiasco like that.

So take your favorite QB with CAR pick, and then if you want a WR, more than likely you'll have the second best one at the Bears pick and can take Odunze or Nabors.

I agree. Get your QB and then take the best available WR or DE with Bears pick. If you truly think MHJ is a future hall of famer, then trade back up and take him at #3. But QB has to be #1.

Agreed. You’re gonna have to compromise at WR, to take a step down on WR board after the quarterback is taken. But that’s where you absolutely cannot frivolously take a step down….your quarterback board. A CW/Maye - Odunze/Bowers draft is a fantastic outcome for this offense.

do we realistically expect a 2 TE offense?

[dice]

this week's simulated draft:

1 cards - caleb
2 bears - marvin
3 pats - maye
4 wash - bowers
5 saints (from jets) - fashanu
6 bears - nix

I'd love that outcome. But the Cards aren't picking #1 after their latest victory. If the Carolina pick isn't #1 then New England's will be.

cards at #1 is a 92nd percentile outcome based on current odds

[dice]

Bears have the #1 and #5 as of today.

Key week 14 games for the 2024 tankathon (Draft):

NE (2-10) @ PIT (7-5)
DET (9-3) @ CHI (4-8)
HOU (7-5) @ NYJ (4-8)
TEN (4-8) @ MIA (9-3)
GB (6-6) @ NYG (4-8)

I’m hoping some how the NYJ and NYG find a way to win.

NE looks so god awful that I doubt they can beat PIT with Mitch.
TEN won’t be beating MIA.

CHI are only 3 point under dogs against DET.

Probably more realistic to say Bears are 4th overall right now, since WAS will have a bye, not play a game, and then no matter what the rest of the NFL does they will be behind all of the 4 win teams except TEN due to SOS.

If Bears lose out they get 3rd overall because of SoS but thats a suprisingly big *if* right now given how they started the season.

7 teams currently have an over/under of 5.5 or less. the bears are a strong under at 6.5, putting them in the #8 spot

1 and 8 would be totally fine by me. almost perfect, actually. it would mean 2 more wins, probably an indication that the team is playing decently to finish out the year. and it would more likely than not leave latu or nabers available at positions of need. fashanu, alt and bowers would just be luxuries

[ThisGuyFawkes]

This is downright not true. USC is regarded as having one of the best WR groups in the country.

Furthermore, you talk about Fields’ arm talent when that’s probably one of the LAST things that you’ve gotta worry about with Fields. If you like Caleb, you like Caleb. Lots of people do. But let’s not cloud the picture with stuff that’s not true.

I don't mean to be rude but you clearly haven't watched the film of none of his WR getting open on almost any play. And I like Justin but he can't do things with his arm that Caleb can. Anytime Justin changes his arm angle, he bops a lineman in the head with the ball. He also can't throw 60 yards with a flick of the wrist.

You could argue many things but arm talent really isn't close.

I’m not saying that Caleb Williams isn’t a great talent because he is. But you’re buying into the hype machine big time. I admit, I haven’t watched the kind of film you’re talking about. What I have watched is 14 of Caleb’s collegiate games (a couple going back to his OU days) and was EXTREMELY high on him at one point. And while I kinda still am, I feel like there are elements of his game that are played up for effect while downplaying other aspects that could be concerning. The bottom line is, when I watch him play, I can see him being criticized for all of the same things that Fields gets criticized now, just with a bit more diva to it. All things considered, I’d rather have MHJ with the first pick and taking one of the lower profile QBs with our pick.

That's fair man, everyone has their own opinions. It's also possible that you've got a better bead on Williams than I do, or just that the QB position is such an uncertainty. No one knows what will happen with any of these kids. I just know that Justin has been in the NFL for 3 seasons and we've only seen flashes. I'd rather grab a similar talent with the ability to be better (or possibly elite) that's also on a rookie contract for another 5 seasons.

[fleet]

I agree. Get your QB and then take the best available WR or DE with Bears pick. If you truly think MHJ is a future hall of famer, then trade back up and take him at #3. But QB has to be #1.

Agreed. You’re gonna have to compromise at WR, to take a step down on WR board after the quarterback is taken. But that’s where you absolutely cannot frivolously take a step down….your quarterback board. A CW/Maye - Odunze/Bowers draft is a fantastic outcome for this offense.

do we realistically expect a 2 TE offense?

It’s really common nowadays, and so may as well be elite with it. Bowers Moore Mooney and Kmet would generate good offense if the quarterback gets the ball out combined with some good play action running game. People worried about missing MHJ don’t need to be. If you don’t like Bowers, then Coleman, Odunze, or Nabors can work very well too.

[Almost Retired]

Agreed. You’re gonna have to compromise at WR, to take a step down on WR board after the quarterback is taken. But that’s where you absolutely cannot frivolously take a step down….your quarterback board. A CW/Maye - Odunze/Bowers draft is a fantastic outcome for this offense.

do we realistically expect a 2 TE offense?

It’s really common nowadays, and so may as well be elite with it. Bowers Moore Mooney and Kmet would generate good offense if the quarterback gets the ball out combined with some good play action running game. People worried about missing MHJ don’t need to be. If you don’t like Bowers, then Coleman, Odunze, or Nabors can work very well too.

I think Bowers has the chance to be a unicorn. A hybrid TE/Large WR. A creative play caller, like an Andy Reid or Shanahan could turn him into an unstoppable weapon. Getsy would use him to catch screen passes. Lots and lots of screen passes.

[fleet]

do we realistically expect a 2 TE offense?

It’s really common nowadays, and so may as well be elite with it. Bowers Moore Mooney and Kmet would generate good offense if the quarterback gets the ball out combined with some good play action running game. People worried about missing MHJ don’t need to be. If you don’t like Bowers, then Coleman, Odunze, or Nabors can work very well too.

I think Bowers has the chance to be a unicorn. A hybrid TE/Large WR. A creative play caller, like an Andy Reid or Shanahan could turn him into an unstoppable weapon. Getsy would use him to catch screen passes. Lots and lots of screen passes.

Super H back. In the slot. In motion. Everything is possible. Bowers’ position is completely vacant on the Bears. There is no duplication whatsoever with Kmet.

[1985Bear]

It’s really common nowadays, and so may as well be elite with it. Bowers Moore Mooney and Kmet would generate good offense if the quarterback gets the ball out combined with some good play action running game. People worried about missing MHJ don’t need to be. If you don’t like Bowers, then Coleman, Odunze, or Nabors can work very well too.

I think Bowers has the chance to be a unicorn. A hybrid TE/Large WR. A creative play caller, like an Andy Reid or Shanahan could turn him into an unstoppable weapon. Getsy would use him to catch screen passes. Lots and lots of screen passes.

Super H back. In the slot. In motion. Everything is possible. Bowers’ position is completely vacant on the Bears. There is no duplication whatsoever with Kmet.

Bowers upgrade over Tonyon? Sign me up.

If we get 1, take Williams and target Bowers with our pick.
If we get 2, take MHJ and Bowers with our pick.
If we get 3, I trade to QB needy team that wants Maye for a haul. (Bowers/ Nabors)

If Poles is here, I don’t see Bears taking a LT in Rd1. He loves Braxton.
Don’t see a DE either since we made move with Sweat, draft is “weak” at pass rush but UFA pass rush is deep.

I am firmly in the Caleb Williams or bust camp for QB. He will go first, and you will need top pick to get him. CW had a great year, and if he came out last year, he would have been a Bear today. Classic find the warts only evaluation going on and forget the absolutely electric plays he makes for 3 years. His release is Marino like, The ball explodes off his hand. Add in his feel for pressure and I can’t believe people are downplaying like he won’t be #1.


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[Almost Retired]

Unless Fields surprises me with consistent positive play for the remainder of the season I am coming around to the idea of taking Caleb with Carolina's pick. And then with our own pick taking Bowers or Udunze with our own pick. Whoever the QB is going to be he will need more weapons. We can live with Braxton at LT. Our O-Line needs a Center much more than it needs a new LT. But beyond adding players in positions of need we have to have a new Offensive Coordinator. I'm done with Getsy. He has botched the development of Fields and I would not wish the same fate on Caleb if we draft him.

[_txchilibowl_]

I'd be shocked if Poles selected either MHJ or Bowers. MHJ with the second pick? Sure, ok. But you rarely see offensive skill position players, especially TE's, selected in the first 5-7 picks.

If I had to bet today I'd say he goes QB/OL with the picks...

[ThisGuyFawkes]

I'd be shocked if Poles selected either MHJ or Bowers. MHJ with the second pick? Sure, ok. But you rarely see offensive skill position players, especially TE's, selected in the first 5-7 picks.

If I had to bet today I'd say he goes QB/OL with the picks...

I'd be okay with having 2 elite tackles for the next 10 years, but I'd wonder what we'd do with Braxton. He's probably too good to be a backup, and it would feel like a bit of a waste. Maybe we could move him for a little more draft capital. Like a 3rd or 4th?

[HoopsterJones]

I'd be shocked if Poles selected either MHJ or Bowers. MHJ with the second pick? Sure, ok. But you rarely see offensive skill position players, especially TE's, selected in the first 5-7 picks.

If I had to bet today I'd say he goes QB/OL with the picks...

ATL drafted Kyle Pitts TE at #4 overall in 2021.

Outside a very good rookie season, he hasn’t put up impressive numbers since. Could be because of the injury last year or poor QB play though.

[HoopsterJones]

I'd be shocked if Poles selected either MHJ or Bowers. MHJ with the second pick? Sure, ok. But you rarely see offensive skill position players, especially TE's, selected in the first 5-7 picks.

If I had to bet today I'd say he goes QB/OL with the picks...

I'd be okay with having 2 elite tackles for the next 10 years, but I'd wonder what we'd do with Braxton. He's probably too good to be a backup, and it would feel like a bit of a waste. Maybe we could move him for a little more draft capital. Like a 3rd or 4th?

IMO, I wouldn’t draft a LT so high in the first round unless that player looks like a generational talent. I wouldn’t do it out of need. Braxton Jones is serviceable enough. MHJ and Bowers look like generational skill position players which may be difficult to pass on.

[nitetrain8603]

I agree. Get your QB and then take the best available WR or DE with Bears pick. If you truly think MHJ is a future hall of famer, then trade back up and take him at #3. But QB has to be #1.

Agreed. You’re gonna have to compromise at WR, to take a step down on WR board after the quarterback is taken. But that’s where you absolutely cannot frivolously take a step down….your quarterback board. A CW/Maye - Odunze/Bowers draft is a fantastic outcome for this offense.

do we realistically expect a 2 TE offense?

My thoughts exactly. Again, I like Bowers a whole lot. Love him more than any TE currently in the league when you combine youth on his side. With that stated, a TE cannot lead any team offensively. You see that with Kelce this year. It's a waste of draft capital if you're not going to deal Kmet. It'll be a large misuse of cap space as well. Considering you have other needs and TE is actually one position where I would say, you don't have a gap, you cannot take Bowers if you're the Bears.

[molepharmer]

this week's simulated draft:

1 cards - caleb
2 bears - marvin
3 pats - maye
4 wash - bowers
5 saints (from jets) - fashanu
6 bears - nix

I'd love that outcome. But the Cards aren't picking #1 after their latest victory. If the Carolina pick isn't #1 then New England's will be.

cards at #1 is a 92nd percentile outcome based on current odds

I think somebody's algorithm needs a bit of tweaking. If I'm understanding this percentile thing, at the bare minimum that's sort of suggesting there's approx a 92% likelyhood the Bears beat Ari.......and I don't think the most ardent Bears fan believes that. That is, chances a 4 win Cards teams drafts #1, got to be near zero.

[HoopsterJones]

I'd love that outcome. But the Cards aren't picking #1 after their latest victory. If the Carolina pick isn't #1 then New England's will be.

cards at #1 is a 92nd percentile outcome based on current odds

I think somebody's algorithm needs a bit of tweaking. If I'm understanding this percentile thing, at the bare minimum that's sort of suggesting there's approx a 92% likelyhood the Bears beat Ari.......and I don't think the most ardent Bears fan believes that. That is, chances a 4 win Cards teams drafts #1, got to be near zero.

The algorithm also projects a 92% chance that Carolina wins at least 2 out of their last 5 games (all remaining opponents are in the hunt for the playoffs at the moment but all are .500 or below record wise) AND New England wins at least 1 out of their last 5 games (all but one remaining opponents are in the hunt for playoffs and are .500 or above record wise. Only team that is below is the NYJ and they play in week 18).

Arizona have a more difficult schedule remaining (4 games) SFO, CHI, PHI, SEA. But is it a 8% chance of winning 1 more game?

[Dresden]

It looks like Bears pick will be in the 7-10 range, and most recent mocks have Bowers going 10-12, so it wouldn't be much of a reach. I think he's that good that he's worth taking even with Kmet. At some point maybe you can trade Kmet. NE was great when they had Gronk and Hernandez.

Bowers is almost as fast as Odunze, he's got a 40" vertical, great hands, and is a beast to bring down. I think he can be a game changer. Teams will have to game plan around him.

The other thing is, we already have DJ Moore. While MHJ would be even better, that's also a bit of duplication. Having both is going to cut into the numbers of one of them somewhat. And in any event, we need a better QB to get the ball to these guys, and I'd rather take the best QB, and then Bowers (or another WR if that's how they want to go, although after MJH I think there's a big drop-off).

[bad knees]

Bo Nix wins the Caldwell Trophy, also known as "the academic Heisman." The article says he has already graduated magna cum laude from Auburn. I did not know that and did not expect that. So it turns out he is academically intelligent - not as important as football IQ but a relevant point in his favor.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/oregon-s-bo-nix-wins-campbell-trophy/ar-AA1l46WW

[JockItch43]

I’m all for the targeting Bowers with our pick if we miss out on MHJ, as I think they are both special and “can’t miss”. And while I haven’t given up on the idea of hanging onto Justin for another year and adding these kind of weapons, part of me thinks doing that would stunt their development and underutilize their talent. Justin has ability I still believe in, but spreading the ball around isn’t exactly one of his strengths. He’s going to target his favorite guy, and one of Moore, MHJ, or Bowers is going to be underutilized. All three of those guys are too talented to be dealing with that.

[Jcool0]

this week's simulated draft:

1 cards - caleb
2 bears - marvin
3 pats - maye
4 wash - bowers
5 saints (from jets) - fashanu
6 bears - nix

I'd love that outcome. But the Cards aren't picking #1 after their latest victory. If the Carolina pick isn't #1 then New England's will be.

cards at #1 is a 92nd percentile outcome based on current odds

Drafting Bo Nix would 100% be a Bears thing to do (FWIW that isn't a good thing).