Bears 2023 thread V

[dice]

ATL drafted Kyle Pitts TE at #4 overall in 2021.

Outside a very good rookie season, he hasn’t put up impressive numbers since. Could be because of the injury last year or poor QB play though.

Kyle Pitts is exactly why you don't draft a TE that high. It's a horrid use of assets. And as good as the TE is, unless your offense features the TE first and you have a need for TE, you simply don't do it. TEs are not fast enough to blow the top off, nor will they get you those big chunk yardage plays, UNLESS, they have WRs who the defense is fearful of.

In a vertical NFL, it makes no sense to draft Bowers unless you have traded Kmet first and MHJ, an Edge Rusher, etc., are already off the board.

Poles will take the BPA regardless of position.

you said just days ago that poles took darnell BECAUSE of position

anyway, i think that position is an obvious consideration if you're not drafting at the very top of the 1st round. and if there's a guy you think is clearly the BPA but not at a position of need you should be trading out of that spot anyway

[dice]

You see what happened to Kelce once he didn't have receivers who can catch consistently. Kelce looked a whole lot better with Hill causing mayhem. So did Mahomes. Kelce has been inconsistent all of this year. Why? Because he can't beat S/DBs in coverage as with every other TE.

And, perhaps my biggest point, YOU DO NOT NEED A TE, BUT SURELY NEED ANOTHER WR, EDGE RUSHER, OL, DL, S, CB.

Kelce is on pace for 1,256 receiving yards and 9 TDs. That would be the 6th best receiving season in Bears history.

Re: your ALLCAPS, if we're talking about a top ~8 pick, OL and WR are also valid targets, but in this year's draft, it does not appear to be a good spot for EDGE. You're not going to draft "DL" there given last year's investments (assuming this means a tackle) or a safety. The Bears do not need a corner if Johnson is coming back, so I have no idea why you'd be saying they SURELY should be targeting one.

Is the goal to be better than most folks in Bears receiving history?

also, kelce would not be putting up those numbers in chicago. particularly as part of a 2 TE offense

if we're sticking w/ fields and have a creative playcaller i could see it working, though. power running game w/ quality checkdown options in abundance

[dice]

Bo Nix wins the Caldwell Trophy, also known as "the academic Heisman." The article says he has already graduated magna cum laude from Auburn. I did not know that and did not expect that. So it turns out he is academically intelligent - not as important as football IQ but a relevant point in his favor.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/oregon-s-bo-nix-wins-campbell-trophy/ar-AA1l46WW

this would be the time to note that justin fields is highly intelligent and stroud scored abysmally on the pre-draft cognitive tests

[fleet]

Kyle Pitts is exactly why you don't draft a TE that high. It's a horrid use of assets. And as good as the TE is, unless your offense features the TE first and you have a need for TE, you simply don't do it. TEs are not fast enough to blow the top off, nor will they get you those big chunk yardage plays, UNLESS, they have WRs who the defense is fearful of.

In a vertical NFL, it makes no sense to draft Bowers unless you have traded Kmet first and MHJ, an Edge Rusher, etc., are already off the board.

Poles will take the BPA regardless of position.

you said just days ago that poles took darnell BECAUSE of position

anyway, i think that position is an obvious consideration if you're not drafting at the very top of the 1st round. and if there's a guy you think is clearly the BPA but not at a position of need you should be trading out of that spot anyway

A lot of teams duplicate talent at premium positions because they stay true to their board. Then, the pundits scratch their heads. But it usually works out if they drafted well.

I did kind of say Poles took the inferior player out of need, yeah. So that's a cautionary tale by my own example on what Poles is capable of doing. He woudn't have taken Wright IMO if Carter didn't have the red flags. Unless Bowers has red flags, Poles should not take an inferior player out of greater need. Unless the grades are very close, that should never happen. I would argue another big time target with Moore is a significant need though. Granted, probably not quite as much a need as another pass rusher. If we're talking about Latu, Bowers seems like a bettter prospect. Latu plays a premium position however, so there's that. Personally I don't talk about Bowers as just a tight end. He's a really big weapon in the passing game that will perfectly compliment Moore.

[dice]

cards at #1 is a 92nd percentile outcome based on current odds

I think somebody's algorithm needs a bit of tweaking. If I'm understanding this percentile thing, at the bare minimum that's sort of suggesting there's approx a 92% likelyhood the Bears beat Ari.......and I don't think the most ardent Bears fan believes that. That is, chances a 4 win Cards teams drafts #1, got to be near zero.

The algorithm also projects a 92% chance that Carolina wins at least 2 out of their last 5 games (all remaining opponents are in the hunt for the playoffs at the moment but all are .500 or below record wise) AND New England wins at least 1 out of their last 5 games (all but one remaining opponents are in the hunt for playoffs and are .500 or above record wise. Only team that is below is the NYJ and they play in week 18).

Arizona have a more difficult schedule remaining (4 games) SFO, CHI, PHI, SEA. But is it a 8% chance of winning 1 more game?

here are the current %s:

60% panthers
30% pats
8% cards
1% giants
1% commanders

so the algorithm for the cards would be something like w*x*y*z = .08, where

x= chance of panthers winning 2+ games
y= chance of pats winning 1+ games
z= chance of cards winning 0
w = a complicated tiebreaker variable

the giants and commanders 80:1 odds are basically free money for the casino. and the cards at 10:1 is probably pretty profitable for the casino as well. so i suspect that the above algorithm would produce a result significantly smaller than .08

panthers could easily win 2 more games, though. they are only 5 pt. dogs in new orleans and will be modest underdogs at home to the falcons, pack and bucs. the game at jax week 16 is theoretically almost unwinnable...unless lawrence is bothered by injury or even still inactive

[dice]

Poles will take the BPA regardless of position.

you said just days ago that poles took darnell BECAUSE of position

anyway, i think that position is an obvious consideration if you're not drafting at the very top of the 1st round. and if there's a guy you think is clearly the BPA but not at a position of need you should be trading out of that spot anyway

A lot of teams duplicate talent at premium positions because they stay true to their board. Then, the pundits scratch their heads. But it usually works out if they drafted well.

I did kind of say Poles took the inferior player out of need, yeah. So that's a cautionary tale by my own example on what Poles is capable of doing. He woudn't have taken Wright IMO if Carter didn't have the red flags. Unless Bowers has red flags, Poles should not take an inferior player out of greater need. Unless the grades are very close, that should never happen. I would argue another big time target with Moore is a significant need though. Granted, probably not quite as much a need as another pass rusher. If we're talking about Latu, Bowers seems like a bettter prospect. Latu plays a premium position however, so there's that. Personally I don't talk about Bowers as just a tight end. He's a really big weapon in the passing game that will perfectly compliment Moore.

exactly why i hope the bears play reasonably well and win a couple more games. so poles probably will be "stuck" with a top edge or WR prospect. i'd certainly be intrigued by bowers though...again, particularly if we stick w/ fields. harrison/moore/bowers/kmet would be fascinating. but if we draft a new QB, i'd be a bit uneasy about a non-traditional offense. particularly w/o the requisite playcalling ability on the sidelines

[1985Bear]

For the “Bowers To Bears” team, Good article talking about 12 Personel (1 RB, w 2 TEs), and how that is trending up the past few years where teams are moving away from 3 WRs and more 2 TEs. If you Bears next coach wants to run a power run offense, (cough w/Fields,) 12 Personel is great so I can see a Bowers Kmet combo being a mismatch. (Yes historically RD 1 TEs have not hit, but recent trend of last 2023 draft had many TEs going higher then ever.)

“during the 2018 NFL season offenses used 12 personnel on 17 percent of their snaps. By 2021 that number was up to 21 percent.”
This season is it up to 27%.

If you count 12 and 13 (3 TEs!!) personnel, the Seahawks -40% and KC 38%.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/9/7/23854327/nfl-big-personnel-scheme-formations-trends-playcalling


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dice]

For the “Bowers To Bears” team, Good article talking about 12 Personel (1 RB, w 2 TEs), and how that is trending up the past few years where teams are moving away from 3 WRs and more 2 TEs. If you Bears next coach wants to run a power run offense, (cough w/Fields,) 12 Personel is great so I can see a Bowers Kmet combo being a mismatch. (Yes historically RD 1 TEs have not hit, but recent trend of last 2023 draft had many TEs going higher then ever.)

“during the 2018 NFL season offenses used 12 personnel on 17 percent of their snaps. By 2021 that number was up to 21 percent.”
This season is it up to 27%.

If you count 12 and 13 (3 TEs!!) personnel, the Seahawks -40% and KC 38%.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/9/7/23854327/nfl-big-personnel-scheme-formations-trends-playcalling

problem is that 40% of snaps isn't nearly enough w/ 2 high end TE on the roster. which is why teams don't double dip resources at the position

[patryk7754]

For the “Bowers To Bears” team, Good article talking about 12 Personel (1 RB, w 2 TEs), and how that is trending up the past few years where teams are moving away from 3 WRs and more 2 TEs. If you Bears next coach wants to run a power run offense, (cough w/Fields,) 12 Personel is great so I can see a Bowers Kmet combo being a mismatch. (Yes historically RD 1 TEs have not hit, but recent trend of last 2023 draft had many TEs going higher then ever.)

“during the 2018 NFL season offenses used 12 personnel on 17 percent of their snaps. By 2021 that number was up to 21 percent.”
This season is it up to 27%.

If you count 12 and 13 (3 TEs!!) personnel, the Seahawks -40% and KC 38%.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/9/7/23854327/nfl-big-personnel-scheme-formations-trends-playcalling


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My thing with Bowers is that he doesn't necessarily have to play "TE". I've made the comparison a few times before, but as a pass catcher, he's basically prime Jimmy Graham. I remember he was in a dispute with the Saints because he was being treated as a TE in his contract negotiations but lined up at WR like 70% of the time. Bowers could definitely line up in the slot and be elite. He'd be the 2nd best WR in this draft.

[fleet]

For the “Bowers To Bears” team, Good article talking about 12 Personel (1 RB, w 2 TEs), and how that is trending up the past few years where teams are moving away from 3 WRs and more 2 TEs. If you Bears next coach wants to run a power run offense, (cough w/Fields,) 12 Personel is great so I can see a Bowers Kmet combo being a mismatch. (Yes historically RD 1 TEs have not hit, but recent trend of last 2023 draft had many TEs going higher then ever.)

“during the 2018 NFL season offenses used 12 personnel on 17 percent of their snaps. By 2021 that number was up to 21 percent.”
This season is it up to 27%.

If you count 12 and 13 (3 TEs!!) personnel, the Seahawks -40% and KC 38%.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/9/7/23854327/nfl-big-personnel-scheme-formations-trends-playcalling

This is a thing. Bowers potentially makes the Bears both elite at this, and a modern offense

problem is that 40% of snaps isn't nearly enough w/ 2 high end TE on the roster. which is why teams don't double dip resources at the position

Kmet is sunk cost, and his presence isn’t what ought to be dictating whether or not a blue chip type prospect is added to the offense. On the Bears, Bowers will play 3 downs, and at least 3 positions while defenses will have to choose which way they want to die.

[Dresden]

You see what happened to Kelce once he didn't have receivers who can catch consistently. Kelce looked a whole lot better with Hill causing mayhem. So did Mahomes. Kelce has been inconsistent all of this year. Why? Because he can't beat S/DBs in coverage as with every other TE.

And, perhaps my biggest point, YOU DO NOT NEED A TE, BUT SURELY NEED ANOTHER WR, EDGE RUSHER, OL, DL, S, CB.

I'm not saying that having good WR's is not important, or won't help your TE. But I thought your point was that TE's are not as valuable because they can't get vertical as well as a WR, and I just think that's a bit over-rated, given how plays are called these days. Not to mention that Bowers ran a 4.45, which is very close, if not equal to, a lot of WR's. So he will be a deep threat if you don't cover him with a safety, and even then, he's likely to have a size advantage. that's what's so special about Bowers- he's got the speed and athleticism of a WR in the body of a TE.

And while another WR would also be nice, I'm not so sure Mooney isn't just fine as a WR2. As far as taking one of the other positions, that's true, we could use all those things. But I think our biggest problems are on offense, so I would look to fix that first. And if Braxton is good enough at LT, then you can get a center or guard later in the draft.

But getting a TE that has the chance to be top 3 in the league is something they should consider.

If you are drafting in the teens, maybe. But the historical ROI on a TE in the first round is rather poor, even when you get a HOF one. It is the most unimportant skill position on offense. Undervalued, no, since TEs are still valued higher than RB. RBs allow you to open up the play action and plus, you still struggle if you can't run the ball.

If you miss out on all of your draft targets and he drops, then ok. Thing is, the Bears have quite a few needs in which picking up another TE when you already feel like you have a great one (you're paying him as such), is such horrid use of both cash and draft capital. You better trade Kmet if you do that.

I would be for trading Kmet if we get Bowers. If they can get a good return on him. that would be the best of both worlds, IMO. Trade him for a starting guard or center.

I think if you have a really good TE, he can be the second best playmaker on your offense. Like Kelce, or Gronk, or, you could argue, Kittle with the Niners, or Jimmy Graham or any of the great TE's that have played, right down to our own Mike Ditka. They can just wreak havoc on a defense, and they are tough to stop. Bowers has the potential to be in that company. So yeah, I think it's worth taking a gamble on.

[patryk7754]

My ideal Off-season plan if we move on from JF1

Coaching
Head Coach: Jim Harbough or Ben Johnson

Defensive Staff: For the Defensive coordinator, Leslie Fraizer is a no-brainer. The Roster is setup to fit his scheme and he can reunite with Edmounds. I would also love it if we could steal Al Harris from the Cowboys.

Special Teams: Bring back Chris Toub. The ST is one of the worst.

Cuts:
Cody Whitehair: Saves 9.14m in cap. No explanation is needed.
Trenton Gill: Saves 950k. He's terrible.
Eddie Jackson: Saves 12.5 in cap. I love him and he has been above average but he's old and too injury-prone at this point of his career.

Resignings with 2024/25 cap hit:
Darnell Mooney, WR: 5m
Cairo Santos, K: 2.5m
Jaylon Johnson, CB: 17m
Dan Feeney, G: 1m
Rasheem Green, DE: 1m
Marcedes Lewis, TE: 1m
Trent Taylor, WR: 1m
Pat Scales, LS: 1m

Pre-Free Agency Trades:

1. Justin Fields to the Falcons for AJ Terrell

2. Trade DeMarcus Walker and Nate Davis for a 6th-rounder each. Walker just hasn't been good and he shouldn't a starter next season. what he'd be owed is too much for a role play. Davis hasn't been available and we can upgrade. Trading Walker and Davis saves 7.5 and 7.3 in cap respectively.

Free Agency: Enterting with 61.4 in cap
Chase Young, DE: 13m
Justin Madubuike, DT: 15m
Kevin Zeitler, G: 7.5m
Tyler Biadasz, C: 8m
Geno Stone, S: 8m
Cap After FA: 9.9m

Draft:
Trade 2nd rounder down to get an extra 4th

RD 1: Caleb Williams, QB
RD 1: Brock Bowers, TE
RD 2: Brian Thomas JR, WR
RD 4: Jack Nelson, OT/OG
RD 4: Zak Zinter, OG
RD 5: Connor Colby, IOL
RD 6: Safety
Rd 6: Defensive End

Roster:

Jones/Zeitler/Biadasz/Jenkins/Wright
Herbert/Johnson
Moore/Bower/Kmet/Thomas Jr/Mooney
Williams/Bagent

Sweat/Dexter/Madubuike/Young
Sanburn/Edmunds/Edwards
Johnson/Terrell/Gordon/Stevenson/Smith
Brisker/Stone

I think this would easily be the best defense in the NFL and it wouldn't be close. Three guys who can get 10 sack each (easily) and then you pair that with one two lock down corners and a play making safety duo.

[Almost Retired]

For the “Bowers To Bears” team, Good article talking about 12 Personel (1 RB, w 2 TEs), and how that is trending up the past few years where teams are moving away from 3 WRs and more 2 TEs. If you Bears next coach wants to run a power run offense, (cough w/Fields,) 12 Personel is great so I can see a Bowers Kmet combo being a mismatch. (Yes historically RD 1 TEs have not hit, but recent trend of last 2023 draft had many TEs going higher then ever.)

“during the 2018 NFL season offenses used 12 personnel on 17 percent of their snaps. By 2021 that number was up to 21 percent.”
This season is it up to 27%.

If you count 12 and 13 (3 TEs!!) personnel, the Seahawks -40% and KC 38%.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/9/7/23854327/nfl-big-personnel-scheme-formations-trends-playcalling

This is a thing. Bowers potentially makes the Bears both elite at this, and a modern offense

problem is that 40% of snaps isn't nearly enough w/ 2 high end TE on the roster. which is why teams don't double dip resources at the position

Kmet is sunk cost, and his presence isn’t what ought to be dictating whether or not a blue chip type prospect is added to the offense. On the Bears, Bowers will play 3 downs, and at least 3 positions while defenses will have to choose which way they want to die.

Could you imagine what Mike Shanahan could scheme up with a weapon like Bowers?

[Chi town]

I’m loving all the Bowers talk. I’ve said for months he’s a game changer just like MHJ. He needs a brilliant OC to properly use him. He’s more Slot WR than TE.

He’s Deebo Samuels at Hybrid TE. He makes teams pick their poison and really opens up the whole offense with single coverage mismatches.

[Jeffster81]

Robbie Gould announced his retirement. Damn good kicker and Bear.

[biggestbullsfan]

Read on Twitter

[biggestbullsfan]

My issue is you can’t trade Fields and keep Getsy. Even if you want to blame Fields for not progressing fast enough, you can’t ignore the horrible play calling Getsy has done with him on the field. I think he needs to be gone regardless. The offense just isn’t creative enough given its talent.

[biggestbullsfan]

Read on Twitter

[JohnnyKILLroy]

This past off season I liked the idea of getting Gesecki in free agency. I thought more 2 tight end stuff could’ve been hugely beneficial to Fields. We ended up getting Tonyan who I feel is underused but that may not be his fault. Fields can’t get past his 1-2 read so who knows how much better it could look. Fields can’t spread the ball around. If we draft a new QB and Bowers you better get a good OC and a QB to get him the ball.

[Dresden]

Read on Twitter

I'll be interested to see what we can get for Justin. Unlike Mitch, Justin has never had a Pro Bowl season and has never taken a team to the playoffs. He's never even had anything close to a winning record for a season. It just seems he has so far to go- he's not somebody a playoff caliber team would take a risk on.

I would guess it would be a bad team that does not have an answer at QB, and would add Justin to their mix in the hopes that a change of scenery/scheme would turn him around. I suppose there are plenty of teams like that, at least a half dozen. I would think a 3rd or 4th rounder is what we'd get back. Or maybe higher picks but in future years, like a 2nd in 2025 or something like that.

The other option is a team that wants to use in a hybrid fashion, like Taysom Hill, where he could be a run/pass threat as a change of pace.