Game 28: Magic at Bucks - 12/21/23 - 7:00 - BSWI - Giannis Upgraded to Probable

[BigO]

What's funny is that we've barely improved in forcing turnovers anyways (23rd). This is why the Griffin concerns continue to be valid even with the defense improving overall. We've seen a few variations of this kind of defense for a good half decade now (hell, Kidd basically enforced a heavy trapping/rotating scheme in his stint here and we all know how that turned out), and I don't see much correlation of success league wide. Look at all the great defenses and the vast majority are still built around elite rim-protectors.

Philosophically, I'll never agree with this Nurse/Griffin scheme that pulls your bigs away from the rim even if they have the ability to switch (your Pascals, Jaren Jacksons, Bam, etc,). Makes even less sense when 2/3rd's of your frontcourt is Brook and Bobby. All you're doing is exposing the most statistically valuable and controllable areas of the court (the paint and corners), in a tradeoff for less 3PT attempts (if executed correctly) and gambling with variance. Smart coaches and front offices are realizing that 3PT defense isn't something you can reliably control unless you're literally taking away the shot itself (running them off the line or blocking it), yet we seem to be going in the opposite direction.

This is an interesting topic of discussion (at least to me). The Bucks are 8th in three point defense this year and were 18th last year. The previous several years they were one of the worst.

So the question is at what point is three point defense more important than stopping paint points? We have seen teams like the Spurs shoot layup after layup against the Bucks and shoot over 50% against the Bucks, but still lose.

The answer so far is that our good three point defense can't make up for the amount of paint points being given up. But I think a lot of those paint points are due to the Bucks giving up so many fast breaks. Bucks are 20th in fast break points allowed. If the Bucks would just emphasize getting back on defense after the shot goes up, I think a lot of those paint points would go away.

This is a separate issue, in my opinion, from Griffin playing Giannis and Portis too far out on defense. I'm all for contesting threes, but not when the guy doesn't even have the ball.

[MickeyDavis]

LFG

Read on Twitter

[Shaffty]

Just kind of ruminating on the fact that we were 30th in TOs forced per 100 possessions last year, traded Jrue for Dame, and then decided we were going to try to be a team whose defense relied on forcing turnovers.

this is an incorrect order of operations. they traded jrue after the decision to force turnovers and be swarming defense

They traded Jrue before camp. WITH Jrue they were the *worst* at forcing turnovers in the league. So they weren't exactly leaning into a strength.

If they predetermined the plan based on that clearly contraindicating information and then stayed with it after a colossal personnel change in the wrong direction, that's not as exonerating as you seem to want to suggest.

not supposed to sway you one way or the other just making sure we work from the facts.

The Bucks were adverse to causing turnovers by design not because of their players skill sets

[emunney]

this is an incorrect order of operations. they traded jrue after the decision to force turnovers and be swarming defense

They traded Jrue before camp. WITH Jrue they were the *worst* at forcing turnovers in the league. So they weren't exactly leaning into a strength.

If they predetermined the plan based on that clearly contraindicating information and then stayed with it after a colossal personnel change in the wrong direction, that's not as exonerating as you seem to want to suggest.

not supposed to sway you one way or the other just making sure we work from the facts.

The Bucks were adverse to causing turnovers by design not because of their players skill sets

If you play a conservative scheme and you're in the middle of the league forcing turnovers, I can understand seeing that as a sleeper strength. If you're dead last, I don't know what's informing any belief that you'll be better than average even if you throw the kitchen sink at it. If you're also getting rid of two of the better point of attack defenders in the league and replacing them with Dame and Cam Payne, I don't think you have to be a professional basketball coach to understand it's gonna be a sour experience for everybody.

[PG Graveyard]

I want to see Giannis put Moe Wagner’s head on a spike

[rilamann]

Bucks are 15-3 since the loss to Orlando back in November.

A 2pt loss on the road in Indiana without Dame.

A 3pt loss on the road in Boston.

An overtime loss on the road in Chicago.

We could easily be 18-0 over the past 5 weeks and 23-4 overall.

Bucks are getting there, but still haven't even begun to play their best basketball of the season yet.

The people miserable and bitching (Because they're still butt-hurt the Bucks fired overrated coach Bud) are memes.

[BucksBrew]

Bucks are 15-3 since the loss to Orlando back in November.

A 9pt loss to Indiana IST in the vegas

A 3pt loss on the road in Boston.

An overtime loss on the road in Chicago.

We could easily be 18-0 over the past 5 weeks and 23-4 overall.

Bucks are getting there, but still haven't even begun to play their best basketball of the season yet.

The people miserable and bitching (Because they're still butt-hurt the Bucks fired overrated coach Bud) are memes.

Fixed the 2 pt loss to Indiana was the game before Orlando

[JayMKE]

there's got to be a crazy road trip coming up eventually with all these home games in a row

[MickeyDavis]

there's got to be a crazy road trip coming up eventually with all these home games in a row

Next 4 are on the road and 7 of the next 8.

[rilamann]

Bucks are 15-3 since the loss to Orlando back in November.

A 9pt loss to Indiana IST in the vegas

A 3pt loss on the road in Boston.

An overtime loss on the road in Chicago.

We could easily be 18-0 over the past 5 weeks and 23-4 overall.

Bucks are getting there, but still haven't even begun to play their best basketball of the season yet.

The people miserable and bitching (Because they're still butt-hurt the Bucks fired overrated coach Bud) are memes.

Fixed the 2 pt loss to Indiana was the game before Orlando

You're right, I got the game @Indiana and the game vs Indiana in the tournament mixed up. So I stand corrected.

We could easily be 17-1 then....lol.

And if you go back starting with the game vs the Knicks on November 3, we've only had 2 bad losses. The game @Orlando and the Indiana tournament game.

If you take away losses by 3pts or less or in overtime in that stretch, we would be 21-2 in our last 23 games. 18-5 is still pretty good and in 2 of the 5 losses, Dame didn't play.

Kind of crazy for a team that is still a work in progress and hasn't played their best basketball yet.

I don't know about you guys, but I am going to enjoy what is currently happening and what is going to happen in the coming months.

Just pray that we stay healthy.

[GoldenAntlers]

Yup. I'm over the hand-wringing. Time to enjoy.

[KendallMarshall]

Did giannis hurt his foot during the last game?

[blazza18]

there's got to be a crazy road trip coming up eventually with all these home games in a row

Next 4 are on the road and 7 of the next 8.

A good test of where we're at coming up.

[HKPackFan]

Moar ajj!!

Do it for the culture.

[tedbrogen]

They traded Jrue before camp. WITH Jrue they were the *worst* at forcing turnovers in the league. So they weren't exactly leaning into a strength.

If they predetermined the plan based on that clearly contraindicating information and then stayed with it after a colossal personnel change in the wrong direction, that's not as exonerating as you seem to want to suggest.

not supposed to sway you one way or the other just making sure we work from the facts.

The Bucks were adverse to causing turnovers by design not because of their players skill sets

If you play a conservative scheme and you're in the middle of the league forcing turnovers, I can understand seeing that as a sleeper strength. If you're dead last, I don't know what's informing any belief that you'll be better than average even if you throw the kitchen sink at it. If you're also getting rid of two of the better point of attack defenders in the league and replacing them with Dame and Cam Payne, I don't think you have to be a professional basketball coach to understand it's gonna be a sour experience for everybody.

This is spot on.

The lowest hanging fruit to make the D better is get back, focus on rebounding, stop overplaying for steals, go under screens on below average off the dribble shooters, and let Giannis be more of a free safety instead of glued to guys 25 feet from the basket.

Bud’s D was about taking away what you could control: the paint, the boards, and free throws via fouls. Shooting variance be damned. Whether that hamstrung them in the playoffs when shooting variance could swing games and only playing one style of defense (outside of the year Tucker took over coaching the defense in the playoffs) made them easier to game plan for, that’s another matter altogether.

It doesn’t have to be one extreme (Bud’s) or the other (AG’s), you are allowed to do something in between those extremes.

The one positive is that with the stupid overly aggressive style AG tried to install it failed so badly that they’ve had to experiment with multiple others. So they are getting live in game practice in multiple schemes and hopefully the players themselves figure out what works before the playoffs and they can use that for the most part in the postseason.

I don’t trust AG to figure it out but I do trust the players themselves to sort it out as it kind of seems the main five lineup has sorted out how to play in the last five minutes of most close games.

[tsamo]

Giannis upgraded to available for the game.
Hope he's okay.

[VooDoo7]

I want to see Giannis put Moe Wagner’s head on a spike

Riot, you got your work cut out for you.

[ShootingtheJ]

What's funny is that we've barely improved in forcing turnovers anyways (23rd). This is why the Griffin concerns continue to be valid even with the defense improving overall. We've seen a few variations of this kind of defense for a good half decade now (hell, Kidd basically enforced a heavy trapping/rotating scheme in his stint here and we all know how that turned out), and I don't see much correlation of success league wide. Look at all the great defenses and the vast majority are still built around elite rim-protectors.

Philosophically, I'll never agree with this Nurse/Griffin scheme that pulls your bigs away from the rim even if they have the ability to switch (your Pascals, Jaren Jacksons, Bam, etc,). Makes even less sense when 2/3rd's of your frontcourt is Brook and Bobby. All you're doing is exposing the most statistically valuable and controllable areas of the court (the paint and corners), in a tradeoff for less 3PT attempts (if executed correctly) and gambling with variance. Smart coaches and front offices are realizing that 3PT defense isn't something you can reliably control unless you're literally taking away the shot itself (running them off the line or blocking it), yet we seem to be going in the opposite direction.

This is an interesting topic of discussion (at least to me). The Bucks are 8th in three point defense this year and were 18th last year. The previous several years they were one of the worst.

So the question is at what point is three point defense more important than stopping paint points? We have seen teams like the Spurs shoot layup after layup against the Bucks and shoot over 50% against the Bucks, but still lose.

The answer so far is that our good three point defense can't make up for the amount of paint points being given up. But I think a lot of those paint points are due to the Bucks giving up so many fast breaks. Bucks are 20th in fast break points allowed. If the Bucks would just emphasize getting back on defense after the shot goes up, I think a lot of those paint points would go away.

This is a separate issue, in my opinion, from Griffin playing Giannis and Portis too far out on defense. I'm all for contesting threes, but not when the guy doesn't even have the ball.

Agree. A more organized, coordinated effort crashing the offensive glass would clean up the transition defense, which would decrease the points in the paint.

It does seem like we're trending in that direction in the last handful of games.

[MickeyDavis]

Suggs and Ingles questionable. Suggs played last night but has a bad wrist. Ingles has missed the last 2 games.

Both are out

[GoldenAntlers]

I want to see Giannis put Moe Wagner’s head on a spike

Riot, you got your work cut out for you.

The last one kind of looks like him.