The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

NatP4 · Post #141 » by **NatP4** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 8:15 pm

My bad, Nate, I misread your initial post. You did have him in a tier with Luka, Embiid, and Tatum though, which I don’t agree with. I get your overall point though.

My argument is pretty simple though, Edwards is good not great, and that line of scouting/ideology can lead to Jalen Green/Jaden Ivey types pretty frequently it would seem.

People tend to underrate the Franz Wagner/Dyson Daniels, but I get it, swinging for a home run and all that. We have this debate frequently. It’s a risk/reward game. Bilal was the best of both worlds.

DCZards · Post #142 » by **DCZards** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 11:11 pm

Ant Edwards is on a very nice trajectory. Showing the ability to take over games (even playoff games) at crunch time and still just 22 years old. He’s learning to use his smarts/experience as well as his athleticism. That was on display during this summer’s FIBA World Cup.

On top of that, Ant is both physically tough and extremely competitive.

Post #143 » by **nate33** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:47 pm

After watching little tape on Alexandre Sarr, I think he is the guy Dawkins wants to draft. As that David Aldridge article points out, Dawkins wants elite length at every position. Sarr certainly provides that, and he addresses our biggest overall need - a defensive presence.

His body type is in the same mold as Wemby, Chet and Mobley, in that he is extremely long but moves more like a small forward. But I actually think he looks a little more sturdy and balanced than all three of those guys when he moves around the court. I fear that Wemby, Chet and Mobley could get hurt on any play, but Sarr doesn't give me that same anxiety.

The big issue with Sarr is that he doesn't really seem to enjoy contact. I think that's rather typical for really long, skinny players while they're young. The question is, can he change his mindset as he fills out and gets stronger? If he doesn't, then he'll probably pan out as a DeAndre Ayton type of player. But if he learns to be physical, then he can conceivably be a perennial DOPY candidate - something more like a poor man's David Robinson. He is 7'-1 with a 7'-5 wingspan.

Offensively, he has a pretty smooth shooting stroke and should become a passable stretch big. His windup is slow so he'll never be a Porzingis type of pick-and-pop weapon, but he could be a Horford type of shooter who you can't just ignore. And he will of course be a rim runner with his length and athleticism.

I also like the idea of drafting a big early in the rebuild because bigs take longer to develop. We will still suck next year and be in position to draft a star-caliber wing or guard in the 2025 draft.

The other good news is that the other tanking teams already have their franchise center in place and will probably be reluctant to draft Sarr (or will at least be willing to trade down). San Antonio already has Wemby. Detroit has Duren and Stewart. Portland has Ayton. So even if we end up 3rd or 4th in the draft order, we could still wind up with Sarr.

Finally, being French, he naturally will have things in common with Bilal and they can hopefully develop a chemistry together.

Watch on YouTube

Frichuela · Post #144 » by **Frichuela** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:08 pm

nate33 wrote:After watching little tape on Alexandre Sarr, I think he is the guy Dawkins wants to draft. As that David Aldridge article points out, Dawkins wants elite length at every position. Sarr certainly provides that, and he addresses our biggest overall need - a defensive presence.

His body type is in the same mold as Wemby, Chet and Mobley, in that he is extremely long but moves more like a small forward. But I actually think he looks a little more sturdy and balanced than all three of those guys when he moves around the court. I fear that Wemby, Chet and Mobley could get hurt on any play, but Sarr doesn't give me that same anxiety.

The big issue with Sarr is that he doesn't really seem to enjoy contact. I think that's rather typical for really long, skinny players while they're young. The question is, can he change his mindset as he fills out and gets stronger? If he doesn't, then he'll probably pan out as a DeAndre Ayton type of player. But if he learns to be physical, then he can conceivably be a perennial DOPY candidate - something more like a poor man's David Robinson. He is 7'-1 with a 7'-5 wingspan.

Offensively, he has a pretty smooth shooting stroke and should become a passable stretch big. His windup is slow so he'll never be a Porzingis type of pick-and-pop weapon, but he could be a Horford type of shooter who you can't just ignore. And he will of course be a rim runner with his length and athleticism.

I also like the idea of drafting a big early in the rebuild because bigs take longer to develop. We will still suck next year and be in position to draft a star-caliber wing or guard in the 2025 draft.

The other good news is that the other tanking teams already have their franchise center in place and will probably be reluctant to draft Sarr (or will at least be willing to trade down). San Antonio already has Wemby. Detroit has Duren and Stewart. Portland has Ayton. So even if we end up 3rd or 4th in the draft order, we could still wind up with Sarr.

Finally, being French, he naturally will have things in common with Bilal and they can hopefully develop a chemistry together.

Watch on YouTube

Yes sir, agreed!

As you noted, his allergy to contact is a concern. We better hope Dawkins & co can do their due diligence.

tontoz · Post #145 » by **tontoz** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:08 pm

Sarr and Topic are at the top of my wish list. Sarr's athleticism at that height is special. Topic is an elite playmaker/scorer with good size. He shoots over 80% from the line so i am assuming his jumper will be fine with NBA coaching.

NatP4 · Post #146 » by **NatP4** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:15 pm

Sheppard had 11 points 11 assists 4 rebounds 2 steals on 6 shots and 27 minutes played against Louisville last night.

Played as the primary ball handler all game.

Post #147 » by **nate33** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:30 pm

NatP4 wrote:Sheppard had 11 points 11 assists 4 rebounds 2 steals on 6 shots and 27 minutes played against Louisville last night.

The 11 assists is very intriguing. As I said earlier, Sheppard's make or break skill will be playmaking as the primary ball handler. It's the difference between being a star-caliber starter and a rotation-tier role player.

I just thought of another comp: Jeff Hornacek. Hornacek was a great shooter, underrated defender, and could play some point guard in a pinch. The only question is, would a Jeff Hornacek excel in the modern NBA where you can really only get away with one short player on the court at a time?

Another comp that might be similar defensively is Kirk Hinrich. So, Kirk Hinrich, but with lights out shooting.

Here's some video of the game:

Watch on YouTube

He didn't run very much high pick-and-roll that we see in the NBA, but he looked very comfortable handling the ball in transition and against a full court press. He was hitting trailers and spot up shooters all night.

NatP4 · Post #148 » by **NatP4** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:53 pm

His numbers now per36:

17.1 points 6.3 rebounds 5.8 assists 1.1 blocks 3.8 steals 2.1 turnovers 76.4%TS

58/58/90 shooting splits

Yeah, I’m not sure on a comparable, but he’s as good as it gets in terms of shooting ability and guard defense. His production is as good as it gets in college basketball, like ever.

Right now, the only player I *might* like more than Sheppard is Topic.

payitforward · Post #149 » by **payitforward** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 2:32 am

I have never -- absolutely NEVER! -- seen a college guard with numbers like Reed Sheppard. Period.

AFM · Post #150 » by **AFM** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:29 am

We just got rid of one Sheppard I wouldn't be able to handle it

pancakes3 · Post #151 » by **pancakes3** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:51 am

those shooting splits at a blue blood? the closest that comes to mind was Kyrie during his month and a half at Duke.

NatP4 · Post #152 » by **NatP4** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:58 am

From what I have seen of the Ignite, they are just absolutely terrible. Soft as any team you’ll ever see inside. No rebounding, no defense. I think Sarr put up a huge game against them and became massively overrated because of that.

Sarr looks very unimpressive to me. Poor feel for the game, very not physical, thinks he’s a 7’1 point guard. Bust potential. Thon Maker vibes

Holland is a total chucker and turnover machine, and NOT a good defender at all. Gets totally lost and is lazy, gambles for steals. Bust potential

Buzelis is a bit of an unpolished mess right now playing on a dumpster fire of a team. Plays with tunnel vision and is a bit physically overmatched on D. You can see all the potential, but he’s not very good right now either. Still, he’s a 6’11 freak that can handle the ball like a guard and has good feel for the game.

NatP4 · Post #153 » by **NatP4** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 11:08 am

Best player in the class right now, is Topic or Sheppard IMO.

Post #154 » by **nate33** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:54 pm

NatP4 wrote:From what I have seen of the Ignite, they are just absolutely terrible. Soft as any team you’ll ever see inside. No rebounding, no defense. I think Sarr put up a huge game against them and became massively overrated because of that.

Sarr looks very unimpressive to me. Poor feel for the game, very not physical, thinks he’s a 7’1 point guard. Bust potential. Thon Maker vibes

I appreciate your take on this, but respectfully disagree.

Sarr is putting up comparable defensive numbers as Mobley while being a full year younger and playing amongst grown men in one of the better overseas leagues. The Australian league has produced Ben Simmons, Lamelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels in just the last few years.

Sarr's offensive efficiency is much worse, but that's because he is attempting much higher-degree-of-difficulty shots: 3-pointers, turnaround jumpers, off-the-dribble pull ups, etc.. Your assumption is that the fact that he is attempting difficult shots is a sign of low bball IQ and lack of physicality. That's possible, or it might be that he is trying to expand his game and is being given leeway to do so. We've seen other Australia League prospects like Lamelo Ball do the same thing.

I'm mostly focused on the defensive tools, and I see a guy who can protect the rim while also moving laterally about as well as any 7-footer I've ever seen. I don't see any reason why he can't come here and be effective almost immediately as a rim runner, and then expand and refine the rest of his offensive game over time.

NatP4 · Post #155 » by **NatP4** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 4:42 pm

I haven’t watched all of these yet, but this channel is my favorite for all of the little details/activity level with players. I’ve watched very little of Sarr, but I just see perimeter player that’s not naturally physical with questionable feel for the game.

For example: in his first year in the NBL, Xavier Cooks averaged 12 rebounds per36. 37 year old Aaron Baynes is averaging 12+ rebounds this year. Andrew Bogut put up 14.6 rebounds a couple of years ago. Why is a 7’1 center with a 7’5 wingspan putting up 8.9 rebounds? Ball and Giddey put up 9.0 and 8.3 rebounds respectively in the NBL while being a fair bit younger than Sarr. Isn't that strange?

Watch on YouTube

NatP4 · Post #156 » by **NatP4** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:42 pm

I think the Wiz are right, this is the worst draft in years. Not just a lack of top end talent, but just no depth at all. Hard to piece together 14 lottery level prospects.

NatP4 · Post #157 » by **NatP4** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 10:30 pm

KJ Simpson is right up there with Reed Sheppard. Per 40: 26.9 points 6.1 assists 6.0 rebounds 2.8 steals 2.2 turnovers 62/49/90 shooting splits. 70.8% TS.

Massive improvement from freshman and sophomore years. In such a weak draft, he might be the 2nd or 3rd best guard. I haven’t even seen him on any mocks.

closg00 · Post #158 » by **closg00** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 12:30 am

NatP4 wrote:I think the Wiz are right, this is the worst draft in years. Not just a lack of top end talent, but just no depth at all. Hard to piece together 14 lottery level prospects.

Who are you referring to and what did this person say?

popper · Post #159 » by **popper** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:37 am

Credit to NatP4. I think Sheppard will be our pick. Nate's comps are spot on.

Edit - if we can sign Jones on a reasonable contract then I'd pass on Sheppard for someone else.

Post #160 » by **nate33** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 2:36 pm

popper wrote:Credit to NatP4. I think Sheppard will be our pick. Nate's comps are spot on.

Edit - if we can sign Jones on a reasonable contract then I'd pass on Sheppard for someone else.

I seriously doubt the Wizards will take Sheppard with a top 5 pick. He doesn't fit their stated prototype of a guy who is long and athletic at his position.

I think the only way we get Sheppard is if Tyus is traded for a pretty decent FRP in the 2024 draft and Sheppard slips.