2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

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Good information to share, but I think people should consider from this perspective:

What percentage of possessions are successful?

Take the top ORtg this year 122 ORtg, and we'll say 114 ORtg as a standard from the past.

Now consider that the Pacers make 14 3's per game, a dock the Pacers one point for each of those. That takes them down to 108.

Teams from the past of course took some 3's, but were there offenses that were 114+ that made less than 6 3's per game? Uh, yeah.

So I would suggest that if you're under the impression that offenses are succeeding on way more possessions than in the past, you're simply wrong. The top offenses from today are NOT the most possession-successful offenses in basketball history, and the defenses you're watching are not the least possession-successful defenses in history.

This is why I'd emphasize that the changes we're watching are mostly about about strategy and skill. Offenses aren't beating the defenses more, they're just scoring more points when they do, and the idea that we should nerf the offenses simply because they are scoring more points is not taking into account what's actually happening out there.

We can entertain the idea that the game would be better if teams took less 3's of course because of the effect this strategy's dominance has affected the viability of other types of shots, but the issue isn't that the defense is destined to fail at all times.

Again I'll emphasize that I think there's a massive officiating issue that the NBA doesn't understand, I think it should be fixed, and if it is fixed I expect it would help the defenses win more possessions. But defenses winning more possessions isn't the motivation, the motivation is to keep basketball players playing basketball rather than developing a ref-baiting style that would get you laughed off the street if you tried it in a game without referees.

[eminence]

My top choice would of course be eliminating defensive 3 seconds, but I'm a sicko who loves zone.

[AEnigma]

Read on Twitter

Good information to share, but I think people should consider from this perspective:

What percentage of possessions are successful?

Take the top ORtg this year 122 ORtg, and we'll say 114 ORtg as a standard from the past.

Now consider that the Pacers make 14 3's per game, a dock the Pacers one point for each of those. That takes them down to 108.

Teams from the past of course took some 3's, but were there offenses that were 114+ that made less than 6 3's per game? Uh, yeah.

So I would suggest that if you're under the impression that offenses are succeeding on way more possessions than in the past, you're simply wrong. The top offenses from today are NOT the most possession-successful offenses in basketball history, and the defenses you're watching are not the least possession-successful defenses in history.

This is why I'd emphasize that the changes we're watching are mostly about about strategy and skill. Offenses aren't beating the defenses more, they're just scoring more points when they do, and the idea that we should nerf the offenses simply because they are scoring more points is not taking into account what's actually happening out there.

We can entertain the idea that the game would be better if teams took less 3's of course because of the effect this strategy's dominance has affected the viability of other types of shots, but the issue isn't that the defense is destined to fail at all times.

Again I'll emphasize that I think there's a massive officiating issue that the NBA doesn't understand, I think it should be fixed, and if it is fixed I expect it would help the defenses win more possessions. But defenses winning more possessions isn't the motivation, the motivation is to keep basketball players playing basketball rather than developing a ref-baiting style that would get you laughed off the street if you tried it in a game without referees.

Per basketball-reference (so different sources might differ slightly), league average 3s made are 12.8 per 100 possessions, with league average offensive rating of 115.6. Last year that rate was 12.4 per 100 for an offensive rating of 114.8. Now, the other big change is league average percentage from the line, with 2023-24 setting a new historical high at 78.7%, breaking (so far) last year’s record of 78.2%. But free throw attempt rates are also down from 23.6 to 23.0. In 2021 teams made 12.7 3s per 100 possessions, but league offensive rating was a “mere” 112.3. In 2020, teams made 12.1 3s per 100 possessions but league offensive rating was even lower at 110.6. There is more going on than just some mild variation in shot rate and accuracy.

I see your point generally. 1987 had an approximate league offensive rating of 108.3, and that would not be exceeded until the 2017 rule changes. 1984 and 1985 both had 3-point-adjusted league offensive ratings of 107, whereas today we would only be at 102.8. Further separation occurs if you normalise free throw percentages — although then we also need to talk about how those 1980s teams went to the line six more times per game, which automatically covers most (but not all) of the new “3-adjusted” disparity. That is all fine to highlight, especially in a media environment where we have an incessant narrative of how offensive production may as well be meaningless because of “offensive inflation.” However, relative to the past thirty years, offences are improving disproportionately beyond those particular shooting trends, and that is something I would like to see curbed.

[Doctor MJ]

My top choice would of course be eliminating defensive 3 seconds, but I'm a sicko who loves zone.

I agree, they should remove it. It made sense back when people thought 2>3, but not any more.

[Doctor MJ]

Read on Twitter

Good information to share, but I think people should consider from this perspective:

What percentage of possessions are successful?

Take the top ORtg this year 122 ORtg, and we'll say 114 ORtg as a standard from the past.

Now consider that the Pacers make 14 3's per game, a dock the Pacers one point for each of those. That takes them down to 108.

Teams from the past of course took some 3's, but were there offenses that were 114+ that made less than 6 3's per game? Uh, yeah.

So I would suggest that if you're under the impression that offenses are succeeding on way more possessions than in the past, you're simply wrong. The top offenses from today are NOT the most possession-successful offenses in basketball history, and the defenses you're watching are not the least possession-successful defenses in history.

This is why I'd emphasize that the changes we're watching are mostly about about strategy and skill. Offenses aren't beating the defenses more, they're just scoring more points when they do, and the idea that we should nerf the offenses simply because they are scoring more points is not taking into account what's actually happening out there.

We can entertain the idea that the game would be better if teams took less 3's of course because of the effect this strategy's dominance has affected the viability of other types of shots, but the issue isn't that the defense is destined to fail at all times.

Again I'll emphasize that I think there's a massive officiating issue that the NBA doesn't understand, I think it should be fixed, and if it is fixed I expect it would help the defenses win more possessions. But defenses winning more possessions isn't the motivation, the motivation is to keep basketball players playing basketball rather than developing a ref-baiting style that would get you laughed off the street if you tried it in a game without referees.

Per basketball-reference (so different sources might differ slightly), league average 3s made are 12.8 per 100 possessions, with league average offensive rating of 115.6. Last year that rate was 12.4 per 100 for an offensive rating of 114.8. Now, the other big change is league average percentage from the line, with 2023-24 setting a new historical high at 78.7%, breaking (so far) last year’s record of 78.2%. But free throw attempt rates are also down from 23.6 to 23.0. In 2021 teams made 12.7 3s per 100 possessions, but league offensive rating was a “mere” 112.3. In 2020, teams made 12.1 3s per 100 possessions but league offensive rating was even lower at 110.6. There is more going on than just some mild variation in shot rate and accuracy.

I see your point generally. 1987 had an approximate league offensive rating of 108.3, and that would not be exceeded until the 2017 rule changes. 1984 and 1985 both had 3-point-adjusted league offensive ratings of 107, whereas today we would only be at 102.8. Further separation occurs if you normalise free throw percentages — although then we also need to talk about how those 1980s teams went to the line six more times per game, which automatically covers most (but not all) of the new “3-adjusted” disparity. That is all fine to highlight, especially in a media environment where we have an incessant narrative of how offensive production may as well be meaningless because of “offensive inflation.” However, relative to the past thirty years, offences are improving disproportionately beyond those particular shooting trends, and that is something I would like to see curbed.

Some good points here, and I understand the thought that the acceleration of ORtg in the last few years may be less about skill and strategy than it is about ref-manipulation. Pragmatically speaking, I think we're entirely on the same page in what we want to see happen officiating-wise, I just think in general people people let the box score disturb them in ways that aren't really justified.

Something I will say though:

As far as I'm aware, the big leap forward began with the Bubble rather than the start of any new season, and I don't think the leap forward in the Bubble was about ref-manipulation, do you?

[Texas Chuck]

My top choice would of course be eliminating defensive 3 seconds, but I'm a sicko who loves zone.

I agree, they should remove it. It made sense back when people thought 2>3, but not any more.

A bunch of 3's still come directly as a result of rim pressure. No rim pressure, less open 3's. If you let Rudy Gobert or Lopez or Kessler just stand directly in front of the rim, offenses are going to suffer significantly.

[Doctor MJ]

My top choice would of course be eliminating defensive 3 seconds, but I'm a sicko who loves zone.

I agree, they should remove it. It made sense back when people thought 2>3, but not any more.

A bunch of 3's still come directly as a result of rim pressure. No rim pressure, less open 3's. If you let Rudy Gobert or Lopez or Kessler just stand directly in front of the rim, offenses are going to suffer significantly.

So, I do expect that changing this rule will help the defense some, but I don't think it would have a drastic effect.

If anything, it would only accelerate the trend of making non-Stretch 5's going extinct. If my 5 can hit from downtown, then you simply can't stay at the rim without getting burned...as I think Rudy knows only too well.

It's that pull to the outside that gives defenses a reason to have their 5 leave the paint, and that reason is why I don't think we need a Defensive 3 seconds any more.

[Texas Chuck]

I agree, they should remove it. It made sense back when people thought 2>3, but not any more.

A bunch of 3's still come directly as a result of rim pressure. No rim pressure, less open 3's. If you let Rudy Gobert or Lopez or Kessler just stand directly in front of the rim, offenses are going to suffer significantly.

So, I do expect that changing this rule will help the defense some, but I don't think it would have a drastic effect.

If anything, it would only accelerate the trend of making non-Stretch 5's going extinct. If my 5 can hit from downtown, then you simply can't stay at the rim without getting burned...as I think Rudy knows only too well.

It's that pull to the outside that gives defenses a reason to have their 5 leave the paint, and that reason is why I don't think we need a Defensive 3 seconds any more.

Nah, team would need 5 legit shooters or Rudy just guards Bruce Brown or GPII or whomever. Or they do what a teams already do--they just pre-switch and have the center "guard" the guy in the dunker's spot.

And if teams really just want to play 5 out and never attempt to attack the paint, well Gobert wins then too. Teams will just concede the shots to your least consistent shooters who aren't used to taking 20 3's a game. Sure sometimes they get you, but mostly they won't.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Having a non shooter as a vertical threat in the dunker spot is still fine

5 out isn’t inherently always better than 4 out 1 in, yes you have a guy inside but the gaps to attack when driving are bigger and it’s harder to stunt and recover

Good shots at the rim are still the best value shots in basketball, and an open short midrange shot by a good player isn’t worse than a contested corner three

A lot of optimization came from realizing role players had much more value shooting threes, less players having the free reign to be high volume iso pullup from midrange guys, catch and shoot midrange shooting being way down

Teams have gradually gotten better at beating help and technically a realistic optimized defense beats an realistic optimized defense

[SportsGuru08]

The Clippers recently had a 4-game stretch without Kawhi Leonard (hip contusion) in which they went 2-2. The 2 wins were against teams well below .500 while the 2 losses were one-sided affairs against two of the better teams.

As Kawhi goes, so go the Clippers.

[BIGJ1ER]

Not sure if many have kept up with the Pels/Zion this year, but to me he looks significantly less explosive and athletic all around. Not sure if he's pacing himself/coasting/working into shape or what have you, but I've watched at minimum 15 pels games this year and he just is not showing that same explosive burst jumping through seams in the defence or his otherwordly first step on the perimiter. You can even see this in routine layups/dunks he does, his lift is just not as "wild" coming off the ground for lack of a better term, even if I don't expect him to go for his max vert every time.

Now to his credit, really since the IST game he's actually been putting alot more effort in defensively, and has been seen an uptick in his defensive rebounding rates which is good, but it's kind of sad to see a guy playing at an offensive level clearly below what he's output in the past (2021 or his first half of last year).

I really hope we haven't already lost peak Zion, even if it seems doubtful he'll ever reach his college level hype ceiling.

I remember similar threads commenting on lebron's athletic decline (from Sideshow Bob I think - which started the legendary ongoing lebron james thread in this forum if I recall correctly) during the 2011 season, wondering if anyone else has noticed a similar dip or any insights into Zion's game this year?

[SportsGuru08]

Not sure if many have kept up with the Pels/Zion this year, but to me he looks significantly less explosive and athletic all around. Not sure if he's pacing himself/coasting/working into shape or what have you, but I've watched at minimum 15 pels games this year and he just is not showing that same explosive burst jumping through seams in the defence or his otherwordly first step on the perimiter. You can even see this in routine layups/dunks he does, his lift is just not as "wild" coming off the ground for lack of a better term, even if I don't expect him to go for his max vert every time.

Now to his credit, really since the IST game he's actually been putting alot more effort in defensively, and has been seen an uptick in his defensive rebounding rates which is good, but it's kind of sad to see a guy playing at an offensive level clearly below what he's output in the past (2021 or his first half of last year).

I really hope we haven't already lost peak Zion, even if it seems doubtful he'll ever reach his college level hype ceiling.

I remember similar threads commenting on lebron's athletic decline (from Sideshow Bob I think - which started the legendary ongoing lebron james thread in this forum if I recall correctly) during the 2011 season, wondering if anyone else has noticed a similar dip or any insights into Zion's game this year?

Sadly, it's looking like Zion is on pace to be this generation's Derrick Coleman; a lot of natural talent and potential wasted by a poor work ethic.

[Heej]

Wemby had an insane block on Giannis tonight. Great national TV game for the Spurs even though they lost.

[The High Cyde]

Not sure if many have kept up with the Pels/Zion this year, but to me he looks significantly less explosive and athletic all around. Not sure if he's pacing himself/coasting/working into shape or what have you, but I've watched at minimum 15 pels games this year and he just is not showing that same explosive burst jumping through seams in the defence or his otherwordly first step on the perimiter. You can even see this in routine layups/dunks he does, his lift is just not as "wild" coming off the ground for lack of a better term, even if I don't expect him to go for his max vert every time.

Now to his credit, really since the IST game he's actually been putting alot more effort in defensively, and has been seen an uptick in his defensive rebounding rates which is good, but it's kind of sad to see a guy playing at an offensive level clearly below what he's output in the past (2021 or his first half of last year).

I really hope we haven't already lost peak Zion, even if it seems doubtful he'll ever reach his college level hype ceiling.

I remember similar threads commenting on lebron's athletic decline (from Sideshow Bob I think - which started the legendary ongoing lebron james thread in this forum if I recall correctly) during the 2011 season, wondering if anyone else has noticed a similar dip or any insights into Zion's game this year?

Sadly, it's looking like Zion is on pace to be this generation's Derrick Coleman; a lot of natural talent and potential wasted by a poor work ethic.

There’s an argument to be made that he’s already peaked.

[GSP]

holy **** Warriors just choked an 18pt lead in last 6 minutes

Jokic bullies Saric in post to tie
Steph turnover on a horrific pass
Jokic 39ft game winning 3 off dribble

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[Peregrine01]

holy **** Warriors just choked an 18pt lead in last 6 minutes

Jokic bullies Saric in post to tie
Steph turnover on a horrific pass
Jokic 39ft game winning 3 off dribble

Read on Twitter

No better halfcourt offense than this team. When they’re locked in it feels like they get a great shot every time. Why they’re so solid in crunch time.

[GSP]

holy **** Warriors just choked an 18pt lead in last 6 minutes

Jokic bullies Saric in post to tie
Steph turnover on a horrific pass
Jokic 39ft game winning 3 off dribble

Read on Twitter

No better halfcourt offense than this team. When they’re locked in it feels like they get a great shot every time. Why they’re so solid in crunch time.

Over Pacers? Feels like theyve gotten anything they wanted damn near every game.........scoring 123pts per 100 in halfcourt but their defense is cheeks. Sixers and Thunder are tough in halfcourt too

[Peregrine01]

holy **** Warriors just choked an 18pt lead in last 6 minutes

Jokic bullies Saric in post to tie
Steph turnover on a horrific pass
Jokic 39ft game winning 3 off dribble

Read on Twitter

No better halfcourt offense than this team. When they’re locked in it feels like they get a great shot every time. Why they’re so solid in crunch time.

Over Pacers? Feels like theyve gotten anything they wanted damn near every game.........scoring 123pts per 100 in halfcourt but their defense is cheeks. Sixers and Thunder are tough in halfcourt too

Have much more faith in the Nuggets given how impervious they looked in the playoffs against great defense and physicality. Hell, Jokic did it practically by himself against the best defense in the 2022 playoffs. They're way more potent now.

Neither the Pacers, Sixers or Thunder have proved that they can sustain that resiliency in the playoffs. Pacers and Thunder haven't been there yet and Sixers have fallen short again and again.

[Colbinii]

Have much more faith in the Nuggets given how impervious they looked in the playoffs against great defense and physicality. Hell, Jokic did it practically by himself against the best defense in the 2022 playoffs.

I didn't realize Jokic played Boston with a healthy RWIII in 2022

[Peregrine01]

Have much more faith in the Nuggets given how impervious they looked in the playoffs against great defense and physicality. Hell, Jokic did it practically by himself against the best defense in the 2022 playoffs.

I didn't realize Jokic played Boston with a healthy RWIII in 2022

“Healthy RWIII”