2024 Draft Prospects

[Rich4114]

This is a weak draft, last year was seen as a strong draft. Not saying scoring averages are everything and rookies won't improve. But we have been blessed with how good Miller has been. Here are the scoring averages for picks 4-10 this year.

4. 6.5ppg
5. 8.3 ppg
6. 5 ppg
7. 8 ppg
8. 4.9 ppg
9. 4.9 ppg
10. 6.9 ppg

So even if we have an awful season and still pick 3-6 we are probably getting a player that will be a single digit scorer, I think they will help, but I also think they aren't likely a savior to make us better especially if we dump majority of our talent via the trade deadline.

You’re better off doing this exact same thing but for guys drafted top 10 and what their third year NBA scoring stats are instead. Unless you just wanted to gauge what we could expect for next season only. Rookies just typically aren’t going to get the touches or consistency to do what they’re fully capable of until that third or sometimes fourth season.

And agreed, what we’re getting out of Miller is down right impressive. Exceeded expectations and I think he has a chance to be a superstar.

[JMAC3]

2022 draft, in the top 10 picks there is 1 guy averaging more than 20 ppg right now. The number 1 pick Paolo Banchero.
After him there is 1 only player over 16 ppg and that is Chet, the number 2 pick.

2021 draft, There are 3 players over 20 ppg. Cade (1), Scottie and Franz

2020 draft, You have LaMelo and Ant(1). 3rd highest scorer in top 10 is Deni at 12.4 ppg.

2019 draft, Zion(1), Ja, Garland.

2018 draft, Luka, Trae, JJJ, Mikal Bridges.

2017 draft, Tatum, Lauri, Fox.

2016 draft, Ingram, Brown, Murray.

2015, Kat(1) and Porzingis.

Seems like 3 picks inside the top 10 are destined to be 20 ppg scorers, doesn't mean guys later can't etc etc but I also think we act like those guys are way common. So assuming we land the 3rd pick we really shouldn't expect that player to be 20 ppg especially early in their career.

8 drafts- 21 scorers 20 ppg or more. 5 of which that are #1 picks. So excluding them it's about 2 out of the next 9 picks on average.

[JMAC3]

This is a weak draft, last year was seen as a strong draft. Not saying scoring averages are everything and rookies won't improve. But we have been blessed with how good Miller has been. Here are the scoring averages for picks 4-10 this year.

4. 6.5ppg
5. 8.3 ppg
6. 5 ppg
7. 8 ppg
8. 4.9 ppg
9. 4.9 ppg
10. 6.9 ppg

So even if we have an awful season and still pick 3-6 we are probably getting a player that will be a single digit scorer, I think they will help, but I also think they aren't likely a savior to make us better especially if we dump majority of our talent via the trade deadline.

You’re better off doing this exact same thing but for guys drafted top 10 and what their third year NBA scoring stats are instead. Unless you just wanted to gauge what we could expect for next season only. Rookies just typically aren’t going to get the touches or consistency to do what they’re fully capable of until that third or sometimes fourth season.

And agreed, what we’re getting out of Miller is down right impressive. Exceeded expectations and I think he has a chance to be a superstar.

see recent post.

[Rich4114]

2022 draft, in the top 10 picks there is 1 guy averaging more than 20 ppg right now. The number 1 pick Paolo Banchero.
After him there is 1 only player over 16 ppg and that is Chet, the number 2 pick.

2021 draft, There are 3 players over 20 ppg. Cade (1), Scottie and Franz

2020 draft, You have LaMelo and Ant(1). 3rd highest scorer in top 10 is Deni at 12.4 ppg.

2019 draft, Zion(1), Ja, Garland.

2018 draft, Luka, Trae, JJJ, Mikal Bridges.

2017 draft, Tatum, Lauri, Fox.

2016 draft, Ingram, Brown, Murray.

2015, Kat(1) and Porzingis.

Seems like 3 picks inside the top 10 are destined to be 20 ppg scorers, doesn't mean guys later can't etc etc but I also think we act like those guys are way common. So assuming we land the 3rd pick we really shouldn't expect that player to be 20 ppg especially early in their career.

8 drafts- 21 scorers 20 ppg or more. 5 of which that are #1 picks. So excluding them it's about 2 out of the next 9 picks on average.

Well it sounds like we just have to win a top 2 pick again then

Scoring is great but we’d still benefit just from having someone be productive in any given area from this draft too. Like a guy who can rebound and block shots or be a solid backup PG for example. But above all, it’s a matter of adding talent.

The other side of the draft is leveraging the pick in a trade for more established talent. If we can pick up another frp before the deadline, we’d have the type of ammo you need to grab someone like Zion should he become available.

[JMAC3]

I agree we need more than scoring. This is just mostly in response to seeing multiple posts here and on twitter where fans act like finding guys that score 20+ ppg is easy. Trading 2 20 ppg in Rozier and Bridges and having to replace 40 ppg isn't as simple as some make it out to be. Especially if we are putting all of eggs in the basket of a rookie filling that role next year.

PJ scored 43 pts this week and is still only averaging 13 ppg. Finding guys that consistently can give you 20 ppg a night is a challenge especially if you lack a true superstar that scores in the high 20s, low 30s. Without those guys you need even more guys that score spread across the roster.

Which when healthy we had with Ball, Terry, Miles, Hayward, Miller. Those guys all were pretty capable of scoring 20 on any given night but we know 2 are already gone with Terry and Gordon. IDK if we are finding a guy in this free agent class that can fill that open scoring role right now.

[KingCat]

I will never trust the idea of a particular draft being weak or strong till we actually see the players in it get a good amount of court time in the NBA.

I remember 2009 and 2011 (cause of the upcoming lockout) were considered awful drafts; now in hindsight they are both strong draft classes that featured allstar/superstar talent.

Also remember 2010 was called a "strong draft", but in reality it was way weaker than those two.

Feels like experts think unpredictable draft=weak draft.

[JMAC3]

I will never trust the idea of a particular draft being weak or strong till we actually see the players in it get a good amount of court time in the NBA.

I remember 2009 and 2011 (cause of the upcoming lockout) were considered awful drafts; now in hindsight they are both strong draft classes that featured allstar/superstar talent.

Also remember 2010 was called a "strong draft", but in reality it was way weaker than those two.

Feels like experts think unpredictable draft=weak draft.

I mean 2020 was billed as a weak draft and outside of Ant and Melo the top 10 is pretty bad. Yeah you have guys like Hali and Maxey who are popping later but overall the draft was still as a whole pretty bad.

There are pretty much always going to be 4-5 allstars in nearly every draft. But if 3 of them are picked in the 20s and the majority of the lottery is bad to me that is what qualifies as a bad draft.

[HornetJail]

Hali was more or less a consensus top 8 prospect who slipped for reasons I still don't understand. your point stands though, was not expected to be a strong draft after Ant and Wiseman. Melo was talented with a bazillion red flags, and the entire rest of the lottery was just a bunch of meh

[JMAC3]

If the Season ended today we would likely pick 1-7 with a small chance to pick 8th.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[Diop]

Read on Twitter

Like the look of this kid

[luciano-davidwesley]

Read on Twitter

Like the look of this kid

The Ignite might be the only dumpster fire bigger than the Hornets right now so it is hard to evaluate guys in that environment. The whole experiment has been a massive fail so far. I am wary of drafting Ignite players as they have so far had an alarming rate of disappointment, albeit small sample size.

That being said he looks really smart and crafty. He knows how to use his body and movement to create space and also initiate contact in a way that weirdly reminds me of a taller Brandin Podziemski.

[Diop]

Read on Twitter

Like the look of this kid

The Ignite might be the only dumpster fire bigger than the Hornets right now so it is hard to evaluate guys in that environment. The whole experiment has been a massive fail so far. I am wary of drafting Ignite players as they have so far had an alarming rate of disappointment, albeit small sample size.

That being said he looks really smart and crafty. He knows how to use his body and movement to create space and also initiate contact in a way that weirdly reminds me of a taller Brandin Podziemski.

It’s a highlight reel, but it looked like he moved his feet well on defense, had good smarts and didn’t mind playing physical. With a working 3 point shot he looks good.

[wilson115]

Buzelis is the one I really want to see blow up. Size+playmaking has panned out big for some teams.

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Read on Twitter

[KingCat]

Starting to come around on Sheppard, but the size scares me in a league that is getting bigger and bigger. He looks smaller than 6'2 and the 6'3 wingspan makes me feel even worse.

If he works out, then he is exactly the kind of connective player this current team needs, but I fear it is highly likely he ends up being a Payton Pritchard like 10th man who constantly gets played off the court due to being massively outsized on defense.

[Lwcasu]

Starting to come around on Sheppard, but the size scares me in a league that is getting bigger and bigger. He looks smaller than 6'2 and the 6'3 wingspan makes me feel even worse.

If he works out, then he is exactly the kind of connective player this current team needs, but I fear it is highly likely he ends up being a Payton Pritchard like 10th man who constantly gets played off the court due to being massively outsized on defense.

Reed skills will transfer to the NBA. He’s surprisingly decent inside with a nice floater. His 3-point shot is as good as it gets. Obviously he’s small but I’d say his limitations are easier to hide than his polar opposite Zach Edey. Steve Nash was also pretty small with only a slightly longer wingspan and made a decent career.

Still my number 1 choice is Cody Williams with Shepard right behind him. Those guys stand out in this draft.

[JustBuzzin]

Cody Williams is that guy for me. I see a lot of people bringing up Mikal Bridges. This guy can be that kind of player.

We have our 2 two way wings and we can build around them with Melo running the show.

[Lwcasu]

Cody Williams is that guy for me. I see a lot of people bringing up Mikal Bridges. This guy can be that kind of player.

We have our 2 two way wings and we can build around them with Melo running the show.

Yeah. I don’t understand how every mock doesn’t have Cody Williams number 1. I think he would have went top 3 last draft after or possibly even before Brandon Miller. After Williams and Reed I guess at least 1 of the Euros will be good.

People talk this up to be a historically weak draft but I take that with a grain of salt. I do second guess what the mainstream pushes. Early in the year it was Ron Holland and Isaiah Collins.

[JustBuzzin]

Cody Williams is that guy for me. I see a lot of people bringing up Mikal Bridges. This guy can be that kind of player.

We have our 2 two way wings and we can build around them with Melo running the show.

Yeah. I don’t understand how every mock doesn’t have Cody Williams number 1. I think he would have went top 3 last draft after or possibly even before Brandon Miller. After Williams and Reed I guess at least 1 of the Euros will be good.

People talk this up to be a historically weak draft but I take that with a grain of salt. I do second guess what the mainstream pushes. Early in the year it was Ron Holland and Isaiah Collins.

To be fair his numbers aren't that great. Also Colorado is not on Nat'l tv a lot so not many people don't know about him yet.

I don't think he's better than Miller though. Miller dropped 41 in college last season. I think he's a lesser version than Miller as a scorer. I think his defense may have a higher upside though.

Anyway just having 2 wings who can be our version of Kawhi/PG or Tatum/Brown would be great. I think that's the best way to build a team in today's NBA.

[wilson115]

I'd be happy with whoever falls in our lap, but, if it comes to a choice, who should the new FO spend our high pick on? These two could make for a really divisive debate. Skill vs athleticism, "plays the right way" vs "kid's got dawg in him", etc.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[KingCat]

I'd be happy with whoever falls in our lap, but, if it comes to a choice, who should the new FO spend our high pick on? These two could make for a really divisive debate. Skill vs athleticism, "plays the right way" vs "kid's got dawg in him", etc.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

It feels like the performance of ignite alumni is negatively effecting the perception of Holland. Maybe it's fair considering Ignite is a 3 win dumpster fire at the moment.

Still his physical tools and on court production is hard to ignore. Maybe not the most mature thing to draft him over Risacher, Williams, or even Sheppard; but I wouldn't be upset if we ended up with him.

At worst he is another Miles Bridges; low IQ wing that can still get buckets due to his physical prowess. He does have incredibly high two way superstar potential.