Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

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Here's the thing about data collection. It's only accurate in proper usage & context.

Reason players like Markkanen bounce to 3 different teams before looking like a star under better direction & usage. Someone needs to give the Jazz data collection to the Bulls & Cavs, lol.

Markkanen is not a good defender either but the fans want him because of how he's playing in Utah.

It took a Nance injury for Jonas to show more worth this year in relation to last. It took CJ being down 9 games to see Daniels defense with the starters set a net 22 rating with what is currently a negative lineup.

Anyone want to take a guess why this young team stalled & had OKC pass them up ?

[Whole Truth]

Someone better check their data.

In 2021Pelicans were
1-9 in October
3-7 in November
5-5 in December
5-5 in January
4-1 first 5 games of Feb before trade

After the first 2 months where NO's started 4-16. They went 14 - 11 the following 2 & half months. They played 500 ball for 2 months & started the 3rd 4-1 on pace for an over 500 month before trade.

1-4 last 5 games of Feb after trade
4-6 in March
6-4 in April
5-5 in May
7-3 in June 2 wins over the tanking Blazzers & 2 over the Lakers who gave NO;s the 8th pick.

I would argue the start of February 4-1, was showing this team was progressing for better than 500 ball & if not for the 4 lottery team wins in the final month they were playing 500 ball post trade & then CJ bombed in the PO's.

Ousted from the Play in last yr.

More wins this yr due to health of Zion but still showing inconsistency.

Listen to me, listen to me. This is CJ's team now.

[Whole Truth]

Boston successfully hunting CJ. Their ATO is to get CJ in ISO.

All things considered good first half.

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What's going on with Murphy ?

1-4 on all open looks.

Herb again 3-4, no hesitation.

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Bouncing back & forth between Jonas & Nance is not going to solve the problem.

Both Zion & BI making difficult shots but there's no perimeter defense.

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Take note the game tilted back when you subbed CJ at the 4 min mark.

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Got to give CJ credit, he's putting in defensive effort.

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Good bye lead, better get Jonas off the floor, wait no Nance is playing.

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33-16 4th.

Good thing Jonas didn't play a minute of it. Boston might have put up 50 points lol

This game needs more CJ

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Good game from ZIon wasted.

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Jonas 20 minutes 11/ 7 / 2 / 1 / 1 +6 didn't see the 4th as NO's got killed on the boards.

Nance 20 minutes 9 / 3 / 1 / 1 who Green would ride over Jonas to guard space was a team high -12

Green turned to Daniels with ZIon at the 5 going small to help address the lack of perimeter defense & NO's started the 4th maintaining their lead. It's when he went to Nance, Herb & Daniels to "protect the lead", NO's coughed up the 4th Q 8pt lead.

Zion a starter high -7 with 28 / 4 / 3 / 2 on 11-18 shooting. Carried the 3rd Q offensively, got exposed & winded 4th Q.

CJ -1 , surprisingly
Zion -7
Herb - 7
Daniels - 8
Nance -12

BI +2
Jonas +6

Guess who Green went away from in the 4th entirely despite his post advantage & +6 ... he let Boston dictate Jonas not being on court because he's insistent on playing CJ. Same issue with guard heavy Clippers & Suns... Look at NO's record against the Clippers with & without CJ

2021 - (3-0) without CJ, (1-1) with CJ, the lone win neither PG or Kawhi was playing in the play in comeback win.

2022 - (3-0) with CJ, no Kawhi game 1, no PG games 2 & 3.

2023 - (1-0) without CJ, (0-1) with CJ

Vs Clippers where there's a large sample of games with & without against the guard heavy team. NO's are (4-0) without CJ, (4,2) with. One of the 4 wins had no Kawhi or PG, 3 had only 1 of the 2 available which allowed NO's to put Herb on the lone available star ...

[Whole Truth]

Here's the long & short of it. Green obviously is not comfortable or capable of managing the offensive big man & he's expiring ... Green rides CJ but he's completely exposed against guard heavy teams where this team is not close to contending with the inconsistency.

If any real changes have to be made in the offseason, 2yrs of CJ, is too short of a window to adjust & contend. Unless of course you plan on handing a 34yo CJ a max extension.

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I touched on it last night. Start of 2nd half Green toggling between Jonas & Nance. The early hook for Jonas with CJ on court with Nance not fairing any better with Zion going on an offensive tear after the 8-2 Boston run.

When Jonas is subbed in at the 4min mark. Boston have a 1pt lead (74-73) despite Zion having a good offensive Q since Jonas was first subbed out.

It's not until CJ is subbed at the 3:30 mark with the game tied for Daniels do NO's manage any separation. Jonas & BI in for Zion & CJ, open back up an 8pt lead in the following 2 & half minutes (87-79). Jonas is subbed for Zion at the 54 sec mark, NO's close the Q with a 6pt lead, 87-81.

CJ, Daniel's & Murphy starts the 4th with ZIon at the 5. NO's are still up 8 (94-86) when Nance is subbed in at the 8 minute mark "to protect the lead". Herb Subs Zion who's fatigued.

When Nance is subbed out at the 4min mark, 4 minutes later. Boston have swung the game 11 pts, have the (101-98) 3pt lead. Like the Wolves 1pt loss, the decision to protect the lead, lost it & the offensive big man who was +6, with Boston owning the board 4th Q didn't see a minute of it.

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Imagine shooting 10-35 from 3 with your defensive wing Herb (3-4) & defensive C Nance (1-2) shooting 4-6

Murphy (3-10)
Bi (2-8)
CJ (1-5)

The "spacers" shot 6-23 from 3. ZIon dominated the 3rd Q in traffic & BI hit tough mid range shots over multiple defenders.

Instead of pulling CJ. Green like Casey, only move, is to pull the offensive big man & hope the volume of shots start falling in trying to bolster the defense. Game was lost when he went full defense with Nance, Herb & Daniels.

I'll keep saying it - Balance

Jonas-Zion-CJ off centre offense - trouble to defend
Nance-Herb-Daniels off centre defense - trouble to score

Jonas-Zion/Herb-Daniels +20, 3 offensive options, 2 defenders, ball pressure
Nance-Zion/Herb-CJ +20, 3 offensive options, 2 defenders, rim protection

Allen-Zion-Herb-CJ, is 3 offensive options, 2 defenders but with Allen you lose Nance 45% 3pt spacing.
Jonas-Zion-Herb-Murray is 4 offensive options, 2 defenders

Trading CJ for Murray/Okongwu saves money & gains additional control of 2 positions of ageing need. Allen has a 2yr window so if the none 3pt threat doesn't fit as well as Nance who's shooting 45% hoping for vertical spacing, your 1 yr window, could turn into an asset control nightmare.

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As you can see what happens to Nance's defensive contribution when the spacers don't manage to space the floor.

Fans say Zion & BI are not it but they're actually making extremely tough shots as they were last night when the spacers all fail to do their jobs.

Murphy's recent play has been concerning. Where I once thought he could effectively replace BI as a spacer, I no longer think that. He would have to be far more consistent than what he's currently showing.

What was a common denominator in the 3 recent losses ? 25% 3pt shooting on volume & a high TO rate. What does Allen not taking any 3's in relation to Nance 45% rectify this issue ?

Murray is not shooting 45% but he's shooting 38% on volume & on night like this, when the 3pt shot is not falling, he's not a defensive liability that a team like Boston would be trying to switch onto.

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CJ has a place on this team but not in the manner Green is choosing to use him. When he starts treating CJ like Jonas, this team might have a chance.

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NO's need to get their timeline & development back on track. If you don't like Murray because he's a Klutch client.

NO's trade - (CJ 35m, 3yrs) for (Paul 30m 1yr, GS 25/26 RTS, 26/27 unprotected)

Curry will be 28 & a UFA in 26/27, CJ gives them a piece that fits his 2 & a half yr window for an expiring Paul with Klay also falling off post injury.. They could be a dominant shooting backcourt, though lacking in defense. They could then look to flip Klay, with CJ replacing him at guard.

Pels ask for the 26/27 unprotected & 35/26 or 27/28 swap to retain CJ's value, while Paul gives them a run this yr with a true PG & 2 way player. Would be nice to see Paul get a return shot at the PO's with this NO's squad. His career coming full circle. It doesn't work out his 30m comes off the books to help with extensions & the Pels get retention of ageing value with the picks.

NO's could rope in Nets DFS & the 5m difference in contracts from CJ 35 to Paul 30.

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GS trade - (Paul 30m 1y, GS 25/26 swap, GS 26/27) for (CJ 35m 3y)

Nets trade - (DFS) for (Zeller, EJ, NO's 24/25, GS 25/26 RTS, NO/s 26/27)

NO's trade - (CJ, Zeller, EJ, NO's 24/25, NO's 26/27) for (Paul, DFS, GS 26/27)

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I see my Murray trade is making the rounds but people are butchering it.

First off putting Jonas in trade loses benefit. NO's lose Jonas cost production & value to expiring value in trade, which is a bigger loss than some want to admit where NO's self would benefit from the flexibility of Jonas expiring contract. It's not as though NO's doesn't have cap issue to not benefit potentially from shedding money. They play out his remaining court value & have option at seasons end to extend or not & save 15m

Okongwu is a 1-5 switch defender with potential from range. He's proving ready to start with a friendly contract & control, that gives NO's options to have all 3 of Jonas post offense/rebounding, Nance defense/spacing & Okongwu's perimeter defense & potential for spacing to play out. This way if there's a need to retain Jonas... there's option to keep or save money

Part of the value of the trade is to reset value & control. Trading an expiring Jonas & a prime BI takes this benefit off the table as well. In 2yrs NO's would have the option to give BI a larger max or a 34yo CJ a max contract to retain his value. You extend a prime BI. Outside of Injury that's asset, value retention.

The concept of Murray over CJ is from the data related to Daniels over CJ & Nance over Jonas. The starting rotation with these replacements show that if you add one more defender to Herb, BI & Zion, it helps to balance the rotation. NO's were looking at Allen over Jonas but with him taking no 3's, NO's run the risk of his defense being a poor offensive fit talking about vertical spacing when none will bother leave the post to defend him while trying to zone Zion & BI, lol.

Whereas Murray over CJ. You first get the additional defender without losing spacing as Murray is shooting 38% from the field on 6+ APG volume, this alone makes him a better target than Allen as there's not much question about an offensive fit, he can space the floor as a defensive 6'5" PG. Not quite Daniels level defense but basically Daniels with range. Not to mention he has 2 game winners in the last 13 games where this team struggles in crunch time. He led the league in steals last yr & is not enjoying playing with Young's ball dominance in a small defensive back court. Like Okongwu is on a team friendly contract with 5yrs control.

Trading CJ's 35m max & having the option to let Jonas expire also opens the option on BI's extension having both Okongwu & Murray locked up for less than what CJ & Jonas are currently making for the next 5yrs, which if NO's choose to not extend Jonas keeping him as the expiring saves 20m trading CJ for Murray/Okongwu at the cost of pick value, which also holds monetary value cap hold but in trade is 0 rated. The 5yrs control of friendly deals of players in their prime opening the window for more room for error. You trade CJ long before BI.

Hopefully the Lakers pick puts NO's in position for a good centre pick in 24..

Okongwu 23yo 14m/5, (Lakers pick) = 20m at the centre positon for 2 players & potential. Cost of Allen alone
Zion - Nance
BI - Murphy
Herb - Hawkins
Murray 18n - Daniels - Jose shaves 14m, 5m, 0m off CJ's declining max with the cap raising & no need to extend.

Moving CJ not only resets value, saves money & gives the team another defender without sacrificing spacing. It opens development minutes for Dyson where Murray's 5yrs control is insurance to Daniels not developing offensively.

Stop butchering my trade. Please & thanks.

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Sigh ... Okongwu has a poison pill & Murray a large 12m trade kicker.

However if NO's were to trade (CJ's 35m) for (Murray 18m & Okongwu 8m) = 9m difference in trade

9 m shed in trade this season before extensions kick in. Murray will be owed 3m per yr for his trade kicker.

NO's trade CJ 35m choose not to extend Jonas 15m = 50m. Okongwu goes from 8m to 14. Murray 18 to 25 = 39m, with trade kicker, roughly 5-10m less than CJ & Jonas currently - the NO's 24 pick dollar value sent 0 rated in trade.

Which is dependent on opting to extend Jonas or not & the monetary value of the Lakers draft slot which could be a rookie big developing for depth, if NO's choose to keep the 24 Laker pick with them struggling to make the PI. I have hope with some luck, NO's jump shark & find themselves in a position to land Sarr. There's a couple high upside big men in this draft with varying skillsets. My preference is for Sarr but there's others to consider.