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Brewers 2024 Discussion - Woodruff Back on 2 Year Deal

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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1681 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Feb 2, 2024 3:54 pm

Turk Nowitzki wrote:One thing I think they need to do now is reinvest the money they just cleared trading Burnes back into the team and sign another impact free agent or two. If they're going to play both sides and not go into a full rebuild like they are publicly claiming then they need to follow through on that.


I think if Attanasio's history has shown us anything, he absolutely will. The question is whether they're going to cobble that together with 2 weeks until ST and not as many names available or do that part in 2025.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1682 » by jimmybones » Fri Feb 2, 2024 3:55 pm

One more thing on the trade. I'll be patient and see what Hall turns out to be before I judge the trade. I trust our pitching lab and if they see something, that's exciting. The arm talent is very real.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1683 » by humanrefutation » Fri Feb 2, 2024 4:11 pm

Turk Nowitzki wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:All of the trade grades I've read so far are saying that this is a home run for the Orioles and are giving the Brewers a mediocre grade for this move. Both Ortiz and Hall are 25 years old and seem to have limited ceilings.

I get how it looks on the surface but I do think there's reason to not see it quite that negatively. Hall, in particular, is the opposite of limited ceiling imo. He has all the raw tools and if the they can help him fully figure it out this deal could be well worth it. My feeling is the deal kind of hinges on him.

I also think people who maybe don't follow the Brewers super closely are thinking the Orioles are getting Cy Young Burnes for that return when in reality he has been trending a little bit away from that. Obviously still a worthwhile move for the Orioles as he could rebound a bit and even last year's Burnes is a huge asset to anyone's rotation.


That's fair, but also, the people giving the Brewers mediocre grades are also pretty well-attuned to the prospect market as well. Apparently Hall has some serious control issues and Ortiz has a limited ceiling offensively, and when they're 25 years old already, the potential for growth is limited to a certain degree.

That isn't to say that they won't be really good adds. Hall has an electric arm and Ortiz is an excellent defender by all accounts. So we'll see how they pan out. And I was totally on board with dealing Burnes at this point. But the return was a bit lighter than I expected.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1684 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Feb 2, 2024 4:14 pm

I don't really follow other teams. Are there any mid rotation, kind of over paid on a shorter deal type vet starting pitchers on a rebuilding team the Brewers could trade a middling prospect and take on the contact?

Kind of specific :) but that's the type of deal I could see making sense if the Brewers want to straddle the rebuild/compete line.

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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1685 » by Turk Nowitzki » Fri Feb 2, 2024 4:16 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
Turk Nowitzki wrote:One thing I think they need to do now is reinvest the money they just cleared trading Burnes back into the team and sign another impact free agent or two. If they're going to play both sides and not go into a full rebuild like they are publicly claiming then they need to follow through on that.


I think if Attanasio's history has shown us anything, he absolutely will. The question is whether they're going to cobble that together with 2 weeks until ST and not as many names available or do that part in 2025.

I would hold him to it for this year. They're barely running a payroll over $100 million right now and there's still some 2nd/3rd tier guys out there that might be open to a Hoskins style deal or even just a one year high dollar deal. I think any of these guys could help us this year:

Jorge Soler
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1686 » by BUCKnation » Fri Feb 2, 2024 4:25 pm

I'm fine with this. Got some nice pieces and a pick. Would've probably liked better but I don't think the prices are very high on these types.

I'm not sure I would've wanted to pay him anyways and its better than just getting a pick for him leaving in the offseason.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1687 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Feb 2, 2024 4:32 pm

BUCKnation wrote:I'm fine with this. Got some nice pieces and a pick. Would've probably liked better but I don't think the prices are very high on these types.

I'm not sure I would've wanted to pay him anyways and its better than just getting a pick for him leaving in the offseason.
Probably should be noted the pick they got in the Burnes trade is essentially what they would have got had he left via FA.

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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1688 » by Ron Swanson » Fri Feb 2, 2024 4:40 pm

Easy to say they should have traded him a year earlier but it's hard to hindsight blame them with us winning the division in no small part because of his contributions. There's just so much variance with MLB prospects that I feel in-real-time transaction grades are utterly pointless. A lot of smart people were also pretty lukewarm on the Hader return, but that turned out pretty great for us.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1689 » by Thunder Muscle » Fri Feb 2, 2024 5:01 pm

And lets be honest, Burnes struggled a good portion early last season and he was spotted a 3 run lead in Game 1 that was squandered by him giving up 3 HRs. Win that game and it’s a totally a different series and who knows what happens. You figure with an elite ace that a 3 run lead would be safe. I mean its 1 game but there are red flags and think taking 2 nicely regarded prospects and then a higher pick is the right call. Hopefully if even 1 pan out that its worth it. Im excited for the future even though well aware it could flame out.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1690 » by jimmybones » Fri Feb 2, 2024 5:08 pm

jimmybones wrote:One more thing on the trade. I'll be patient and see what Hall turns out to be before I judge the trade. I trust our pitching lab and if they see something, that's exciting. The arm talent is very real.


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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1691 » by M-C-G » Fri Feb 2, 2024 6:47 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
BUCKnation wrote:I'm fine with this. Got some nice pieces and a pick. Would've probably liked better but I don't think the prices are very high on these types.

I'm not sure I would've wanted to pay him anyways and its better than just getting a pick for him leaving in the offseason.
Probably should be noted the pick they got in the Burnes trade is essentially what they would have got had he left via FA.

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That’s actually something I was wondering about. So we lose him a year early get the same type of pick a year early and two interesting prospects.

Works for me


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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1692 » by paulpressey25 » Fri Feb 2, 2024 7:51 pm

humanrefutation wrote:All of the trade grades I've read so far are saying that this is a home run for the Orioles and are giving the Brewers a mediocre grade for this move. Both Ortiz and Hall are 25 years old and seem to have limited ceilings.


These guys are 25 years old? Ouch.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1693 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Feb 2, 2024 7:54 pm

paulpressey25 wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:All of the trade grades I've read so far are saying that this is a home run for the Orioles and are giving the Brewers a mediocre grade for this move. Both Ortiz and Hall are 25 years old and seem to have limited ceilings.


These guys are 25 years old? Ouch.


I don’t know why this matters, especially in DL Hall’s case.

He has electric stuff and has for a while. Pitched great at the end of last year. It’s not like you can use his age as a negative because he’s done physically developing. All you need is some mechanical tweaks and he might be a star.

Yes, usually trading for a 21-year-old pitcher gives the upside that he can go from 93 MPH to 96 MPH still. Hall is there and has been there.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1694 » by ReasonablySober » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:11 pm

Psyched at the Fangraphs writeup, particularly Ortiz.

Let’s talk about those players, starting with Ortiz. A fourth rounder in 2019, Ortiz has a career .286/.357/.449 line in the minors and reached the big leagues in 2023. With so many other infielders, chiefly Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, also in the upper-level mix for playing time, the Orioles had a surplus of players like this in their system. Ortiz was a top 100 prospect last offseason and ended the 2023 season as my 57th overall prospect. His profile was initially rooted in his plus combination of defense and feel for contact, but in 2023, he traded some of that contact for meaningfully more power. Ortiz’s underlying contact quality took a leap across the board, most notably his hard-hit rate, which rose from 31% in 2022 to 46% in 2023. This was coupled with a noticeable shift in his physicality, as Ortiz looked bigger and stronger. Ortiz’s contact rates, both overall and in-zone, dropped a tad compared to 2022 and he’s a bit chase-prone, but his well-rounded offensive output should clear the relatively low bar for middle infielders.

While a capable shortstop, Ortiz is not quite the defender that Willy Adames is. Unless Adames is also traded, Ortiz is more likely to wind up playing second base, where he is an exceptional, Gold Glove-caliber defender. His range and acrobatics are rare for that position. If not for Rhys Hoskins’ presence at first base, Milwaukee’s current projected group of Adames, Ortiz, and Brice Turang would be one of the best infield defenses in baseball. Ortiz projects as an everyday middle infielder at either position and is talented enough to be a part of Milwaukee’s core for the next half decade.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1695 » by Kerb Hohl » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:11 pm

I’ll put it this way: we don’t even have to look far to see why age shouldn’t matter if a pitcher has electric stuff.

The Orioles had Kevin Gausman who was a highly regarded prospect but didn’t do much until age 24/25.

They had Jake Arrieta who was a supposed failed prospect with electric stuff that was traded for a middling reliever at age 27.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1696 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:26 pm

When you consider very very few Brewers will ever be here past the standard first 6 years of team control, age doesn't matter as much.


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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1697 » by MVP2110 » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:26 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:I’ll put it this way: we don’t even have to look far to see why age shouldn’t matter if a pitcher has electric stuff.

The Orioles had Kevin Gausman who was a highly regarded prospect but didn’t do much until age 24/25.

They had Jake Arrieta who was a supposed failed prospect with electric stuff that was traded for a middling reliever at age 27.


Brandon Woodruff made his first real impact as a 25 year old as well
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1698 » by Turk Nowitzki » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:39 pm

Not to mention Burnes himself was absolutely terrible in his age 24 season before turning it around.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1699 » by Thunder Muscle » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:40 pm

What kind of deal do you think Adames gets after this season? Is it over 20M/year? I was thinking it was in the 15M/year range that I’m not 100% convinced at age 28 that they maybe don’t do that. But then I saw some really big dollar deals for Correa, Swanson, Baez that make me think they’re going to get something much higher than 15-18M/year range.
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Re: Brewers 2024 Discussion - Burnes to BAL for Two Prospects and a Pick 

Post#1700 » by MickeyDavis » Fri Feb 2, 2024 8:54 pm

Thunder Muscle wrote:What kind of deal do you think Adames gets after this season? Is it over 20M/year? I was thinking it was in the 15M/year range that I’m not 100% convinced at age 28 that they maybe don’t do that. But then I saw some really big dollar deals for Correa, Swanson, Baez that make me think they’re going to get something much higher than 15-18M/year range.

Adames is going to be interesting. I still think he's traded but re-signing him wouldn't shock me.
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