The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[tontoz]

Count me in on the Zach Edey bandwagon. His size and mobility actually reminds me of Embiid.

Apparently he didn't even start playing bball until 10th grade

[popper]

I like Edey but unless you're playing zone he'll get exposed on defense. He's slow afoot and teams will try to pull him away from the basket where he's useless. Zone is fine with me but in man coverage he's a weak link.

[pcbothwel]

I like Edey but unless you're playing zone he'll get exposed on defense. He's slow afoot and teams will try to pull him away from the basket where he's useless. Zone is fine with me but in man coverage he's a weak link.

I would argue that 1) Edey has slow feet, but he deceivingly covers a lot of ground due to his size. 2) Edey locked up on a cheap deal is a fantastic tool. Maybe not a core piece with versatility, but a guy you can leverage in short spurts that can single handily win you a game.
Anything outside the top 20 is a steal for him

[tontoz]

I like Edey but unless you're playing zone he'll get exposed on defense. He's slow afoot and teams will try to pull him away from the basket where he's useless. Zone is fine with me but in man coverage he's a weak link.

I would argue that 1) Edey has slow feet, but he deceivingly covers a lot of ground due to his size. 2) Edey locked up on a cheap deal is a fantastic tool. Maybe not a core piece with versatility, but a guy you can leverage in short spurts that can single handily win you a game.
Anything outside the top 20 is a steal for him

Brook and Embiid aren't good at chasing guys around the perimeter either but they are still impact defenders because they can protect the rim.

[tontoz]

Big Z highlights from last year. Pretty impressive athleticism. Not in English.

https://youtu.be/Pxqst15DQ6o?si=YumnOzusKQ59LEph

Pro day 2022

https://youtu.be/kShYL-4Vjwo?si=knxWQ5FZwIc6ZPhL

[NatP4]

Castle with 21 on 12 shots. The top 5 version showed up tonight

[NatP4]

So Castle has now made a 3 in each of his last 6 games (8-18, 44%), and has drawn 37 free throw attempts.

In his last two games he dropped 41 points on 26 shots, 8 assists and 1 turnover, 4 steals and a block.

[NatP4]

Point guard position is loaded in this draft:

1. Castle
2. Topic
3. Sheppard

4. KJ Simpson
5. Devin Carter
6. Tamin Lipsey

7. Juan Nunez
8. Caleb Love
9. Rob Dillingham
10. Tyler Kolek
11. Reece Beekman

[nate33]

So Castle has now made a 3 in each of his last 6 games (8-18, 44%), and has drawn 37 free throw attempts.

In his last two games he dropped 41 points on 26 shots, 8 assists and 1 turnover, 4 steals and a block.

Castle is an interesting prospect. He is real good in the lane with great strength, good footwork, and good touch with either hand. He has that SGA-style herky-jerky ability to get into the lane while still under control, and then pump fake or side-step his way into an easy finish.

All that said, I was struck by how little lift he gets when he shoots. He has a high release point, but he barely jumps at all. And since he doesn't really have an explosive first step or a quick-release off-the-dribble 3, I wonder how easily he could be negated by a big agile defender. Would Castle score at all if he was guarded by someone like Jaden McDaniels or, heck, Deni Avdija?

Ultimately, I don't see a single standout skill that will make him a primary offensive option against NBA defenders. He is a smart ball mover, but he looks more like a role player to me. But in today's NBA, if you are not an offensive weapon with the ball in your hands, you need to be an elite shooter and passable defender (DiVincenzo prototype), or a passable shooter and an elite defender (Avdija prototype). I'm not sure Castle is either. His defense was fine, but not lockdown tier. He's not quick enough laterally, nor does he have very long arms. He looks more like a passable defender and a passable shooter.

I'd definitely take Sheppard or Dillingham over him.

[tontoz]

I watched some of the UK vs Tenn game. I was hoping to see Big Z but he didn't play. Not sure why. He had an eligibility issue with the NCAA early this season but that's over now.

Dillingham went off for 35 which is hard to do in college. I think he is ideally suited to the 6th man role like Lou Williams. He is so skinny that I don't like him as a starter. I think he would be too much of a defensive liability like Trae/Kemba.

I suspect Sheppard won't go in the top 10. He would have to show more off the dribble to crack the top 10 imo. That probably won't happen because he is running the offense, not hunting shots like dillingham. I am definitely curious about how he measures/tests at the combine.

[NatP4]

Castle plays more of an off ball wing role because he’s a freshman stepping into a roster with senior guards Cam Spencer and Tristan Newton, who both play a ton of minutes. At times, he basically plays like a small ball PF because Karaban, the starting 4 is an elite spot up shooter. It’s an elite team that’s absolutely dominating right now, and is the clear national championship favorite. He’s just fitting into a role for the benefit of a great team.

Just now starting to find a rhythm after missing a good portion of the year with a knee injury. The appeal is that he draws just about twice as many trips to the free throw line as Topic/Sheppard/Dillingham and just about any other guard in the draft. Gets to the paint whenever he wants, and is now starting to find some real confidence in his jump shot. Possessed elite shooting ability in high school. Combine that with top shelf intangibles and good to great all around defensive ability.

He reminds me of Donovan Mitchell. There’s question marks and risk, but he’s more talented than anyone in this class IMO.

[NatP4]

I watched some of the UK vs Tenn game. I was hoping to see Big Z but he didn't play. Not sure why. He had an eligibility issue with the NCAA early this season but that's over now.

Dillingham went off for 35 which is hard to do in college. I think he is ideally suited to the 6th man role like Lou Williams. He is so skinny that I don't like him as a starter. I think he would be too much of a defensive liability like Trae/Kemba.

I suspect Sheppard won't go in the top 10. He would have to show more off the dribble to crack the top 10 imo. That probably won't happen because he is running the offense, not hunting shots like dillingham. I am definitely curious about how he measures/tests at the combine.

Fully agree with your assessment of Dillingham. He’s a microwave scorer, but a liability on defense. Not a huge fan, but he’s definitely a NBA player.

[tontoz]

Found a high school vid on castle. He was already showing advanced ball handling and his shot looks fine. Apparently he shot well in high school.He was taking some 3s well behind the line.

https://youtu.be/lfU8XHOXyPY?si=QbLRL5Fq7AVlV_Wu

[tontoz]

Watching Purdue Edey's rim protection has been disappointing. There were several times I was expecting him to block or just contest shots and it didn't happen.

[pcbothwel]

Right now, Sarr is the only guy worthy of the number 1 pick. His rebounding is subpar due to his size/build (High center of gravity) and lack of physicality, but he has a great frame and moves like a cat. He loves basketball and I think he'll continue to work.
While his shooting mechanics need work, his touch looks good. I think his floor is WCS, 'likely' outcome is somewhere in the healthy Issac/Claxton area, and ceiling is JJJ.

But I would MUCH rather get other prospects and trade down. Hopefully Topic comes back and fires 3's and makes it interesting.

[nate33]

Right now, Sarr is the only guy worthy of the number 1 pick. His rebounding is subpar due to his size/build (High center of gravity) and lack of physicality, but he has a great frame and moves like a cat. He loves basketball and I think he'll continue to work.
While his shooting mechanics need work, his touch looks good. I think his floor is WCS, 'likely' outcome is somewhere in the healthy Issac/Claxton area, and ceiling is JJJ.

But I would MUCH rather get other prospects and trade down. Hopefully Topic comes back and fires 3's and makes it interesting.

Yeah, the most intriguing thing about Sarr is his incredible agility at that size, and it's coupled with a good motor. He seems like he cares out there. The sky is the limit for him defensively if he has the work ethic. And with this new wave of agile centers like Wemby, Chet and Mobley, it may become a prerequisite to have someone like that to match up.

The biggest concern is the poor rebounding and lack of physicality. His on/off numbers are pretty disappointing too.

Drafting him #1 would be a bet on his character and work ethic. His physical potential is almost unlimited, but he has a long way to go to get there. He is a project.

[NatP4]

Buzelis last 10:

16.2 points 8.0 rebounds 1.0 steals 2.1 blocks 2.9 turnovers 60% TS. Decent on/off numbers as well.

It’s impossible to evaluate a guy on a team that is 1-16, but a 19 year old putting up 16-8-2-2-1 on 60% TS in pro ball is pretty solid.

[doclinkin]

Buzelis last 10:

16.2 points 8.0 rebounds 1.0 steals 2.1 blocks 2.9 turnovers 60% TS. Decent on/off numbers as well.

It’s impossible to evaluate a guy on a team that is 1-16, but a 19 year old putting up 16-8-2-2-1 on 60% TS in pro ball is pretty solid.

I think it is impossible to evaluate the Ignite.

So far the team doesn't seem to generate complete players with useful NBA skills. Leaving Scoot out of the equation, if you look at Jalen Green, Dyson Daniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Leonard Miller, SIdy Cissoko -- have any of them overperformed their reputation? Granted they are all still within the 3 year window that it takes before a player 'gets it' and starts showing what they really can do. And there are hints that one or another of them will grow into reliable players. I'm just not sure their experience on the Ignite helped them in any way other than getting them a platform to be drafted far higher than their on-court value.

[NatP4]

Yeah, I don’t think it is or has ever been a good developmental situation, but it has clearly boosted the draft stock of players, and made them more pre-draft money (before NIL) than college. I think that is slowly changing though, especially this year with such an awful mess of a situation with the Ignite. It’s starting to seriously hurt the draft stock of guys like Holland/Buzelis/Smith/Almansa.

Buzelis would be far better served playing for Arizona right now in an actual constructive competitive environment on an actual team. I think he would be shining and look something like Michigan Franz Wagner and be a top 5 lock right now.

[pcbothwel]

Buzelis last 10:

16.2 points 8.0 rebounds 1.0 steals 2.1 blocks 2.9 turnovers 60% TS. Decent on/off numbers as well.

It’s impossible to evaluate a guy on a team that is 1-16, but a 19 year old putting up 16-8-2-2-1 on 60% TS in pro ball is pretty solid.

Love him. I had him in my top tier to start the year and love what I see. He has filled out to about 215lbs so far and looks identical to the Franz/Deni, 6'10 2-way playmaking forward that I think makes a difference in the league.