The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[nate33]

Now that the Trade Deadline has passed, I'm going to go ahead and sticky this thread. The Draft is clearly the most relevant topic of conversation for this board.

[NatP4]

Right this moment, if we land #2&#25, I would do exactly what the Tankathon mock says:

2: Topic
25: Almansa

Almansa is an even better prospect than Sochan, who went 9th overall in 2022. If we land 1 or 3/4/5/6(and Topic goes #2) I’m trading down. Calling OKC about 9&12. Looking at Sheppard, Castle, Clingan, Filipowski, Buzelis in that range.

Other options at 25: Devin Carter, KJ Simpson, Tamin Lipsey, Zach Edey.

Draft is loaded at PG, and seriously lacks depth at the 2/3/4 positions. I think all of the top 5+Coulibaly in the 2023 draft would go before the top guy in this draft.

This draft is also pretty brutal outside of the lottery. There aren’t the typical mid to late 1st options. Guys like Podziemski, Clowney, Jacquez, Sasser from last year. Previous year: Laravia, Braun, Kessler, Mark Williams, Eason, Roddy.

[nate33]

Interesting post Doc, honestly, I tend to think we have nothing to worry about in terms of getting too good for the classes we want to tank for. Eventually we are trading Kuzma, probably this summer or the next deadline, we aren't getting much of value and certainly nothing of the catalyst sort to suddenly turn us into a 30+ win side over the next two seasons. I think there's a lot more room to imagine San Antonio and Detroit straightening out than us. Same probably with Portland and Charlotte. Who knows who falls off, but honestly I think we're safely a bottom 3-5 team with worst in the league potential pretty easily for years going forward. And Thank God considering how thoroughly they bungled 2019-2022. We're gonna need to be bad, really bad.

Agreed.

You simply must have a defense-bending star in today's NBA or else your offense is dead in the water. Looking at the league now, I count 8 teams that lack a defense-bending star: WAS, SAS, MEM, POR, CHA, DET, TOR, BRK. Of those teams, the first 6 I listed rank in the bottom 6 on offensive rating. Toronto ranks 19th overall but is 26th since the Siakam trade. Brooklyn is the only team that is somehow staying afloat offensively, ranking 17th.

We don't have a defense-bending star on the roster, and it doesn't look we are going to have one who is seasoned enough to carry the offense for another 3 years or so. Without that, we will be a bottom 5 team on offense, and probably in the bottom 3. And even if we get our defense up to league average (which is possible, though perhaps not without Gafford), I don't see us being any better than a bottom 5 team for a few years.

[nate33]

In the first half against Gonzaga Reed Sheppard didn't score, missed a couple 3s, was fairly passive. They were down 10 at the half.

Different story in the 2nd half. He started going iso scoring off the dribble.

https://youtu.be/kzfcxpdgl8g?si=SGiYQmI79qyjwLkV

That's actually the most important film I've seen of Sheppard all year. It's what I really wanted to see - evidence that he can consistently leverage his shooting ability to blow past defenders and get to the rim. I loved the hesitation dribble at 1:13. The hesitation move at :35 was pretty good too. That's what you can do if defenses are scared to death of your shooting ability.

This clinches it for me. The guy is a true PG and not merely a role playing 3&D floor stretcher at the PG position. He is the next Mark Price rather than merely a Donte Divencenzo. I think he is the best guard in the draft. The only way I wouldn't draft him with our top 5 pick is if I was convinced that Risacher had superstar potential, or that Sarr's work ethic was good enough for him to reach his physical potential.

I also like that Sheppard has taken over the starting role and now plays 35+ minutes a night on a stacked Kentucky team. They can't keep him off the floor.

[mhd]

Interesting post Doc, honestly, I tend to think we have nothing to worry about in terms of getting too good for the classes we want to tank for. Eventually we are trading Kuzma, probably this summer or the next deadline, we aren't getting much of value and certainly nothing of the catalyst sort to suddenly turn us into a 30+ win side over the next two seasons. I think there's a lot more room to imagine San Antonio and Detroit straightening out than us. Same probably with Portland and Charlotte. Who knows who falls off, but honestly I think we're safely a bottom 3-5 team with worst in the league potential pretty easily for years going forward. And Thank God considering how thoroughly they bungled 2019-2022. We're gonna need to be bad, really bad.

Agreed.

You simply must have a defense-bending star in today's NBA or else your offense is dead in the water. Looking at the league now, I count 8 teams that lack a defense-bending star: WAS, SAS, MEM, POR, CHA, DET, TOR, BRK. Of those teams, the first 6 I listed rank in the bottom 6 on offensive rating. Toronto ranks 19th overall but is 26th since the Siakam trade. Brooklyn is the only team that is somehow staying afloat offensively, ranking 17th.

We don't have a defense-bending star on the roster, and it doesn't look we are going to have one who is seasoned enough to carry the offense for another 3 years or so. Without that, we will be a bottom 5 team on offense, and probably in the bottom 3. And even if we get our defense up to league average (which is possible, though perhaps not without Gafford), I don't see us being any better than a bottom 5 team for a few years.

I wouldn't keep put Memphis on that list. Ja is a defense-bending star. He's just injured right now.

[tontoz]

Watching the game it was obvious that Reed decided just to take over in the 2nd half. A few times he just backed up way behind the 3 pt line, completely ignoring the offense, and was like I'm just going at this dude. I definitely got some brunson vibes

Very out of character from what I've seen in other games. All 21 of his points were in the 2nd half.

[nate33]

Interesting post Doc, honestly, I tend to think we have nothing to worry about in terms of getting too good for the classes we want to tank for. Eventually we are trading Kuzma, probably this summer or the next deadline, we aren't getting much of value and certainly nothing of the catalyst sort to suddenly turn us into a 30+ win side over the next two seasons. I think there's a lot more room to imagine San Antonio and Detroit straightening out than us. Same probably with Portland and Charlotte. Who knows who falls off, but honestly I think we're safely a bottom 3-5 team with worst in the league potential pretty easily for years going forward. And Thank God considering how thoroughly they bungled 2019-2022. We're gonna need to be bad, really bad.

Agreed.

You simply must have a defense-bending star in today's NBA or else your offense is dead in the water. Looking at the league now, I count 8 teams that lack a defense-bending star: WAS, SAC, MEM, POR, CHA, DET, TOR, BRK. Of those teams, the first 6 I listed rank in the bottom 6 on offensive rating. Toronto ranks 19th overall but is 26th since the Siakam trade. Brooklyn is the only team that is somehow staying afloat offensively, ranking 17th.

We don't have a defense-bending star on the roster, and it doesn't look we are going to have one who is seasoned enough to carry the offense for another 3 years or so. Without that, we will be a bottom 5 team on offense, and probably in the bottom 3. And even if we get our defense up to league average (which is possible, though perhaps not without Gafford), I don't see us being any better than a bottom 5 team for a few years.

I wouldn't keep put Memphis on that list. Ja is a defense-bending star. He's just injured right now.

Well, Memphis, in the absence of Ja, lacks a defense-bending star, which is why Memphis, in the absence of Ja, has the 30th ranked offense in the league.

(As an aside, I actually think Ja is substantially overrated offensively. He has never been very efficient. I think Memphis' success has a lot more to do with their team defense and the floor stretching ability of JJJ who helps Ja more than people realize.)

[DCZards]

I consider Fox a defense-bending star for Sac. I would also probably include Toronto’s Scottie Barnes in that category. He’s a really nice player.

[nate33]

I consider Fox a defense-bending star for Sac. I would also probably include Toronto’s Scottie Barnes in that category. He’s a really nice player.

Sorry. I meant to write SAS, not SAC.

[NatP4]

Nate, you would take Sheppard top 3 over Sarr?

[nate33]

Nate, you would take Sheppard top 3 over Sarr?

I don't know yet.

Sarr has almost limitless potential, but it's going to depend on his work ethic. He is a total project. I think any assessment of Sarr is going to have to involve more than just film. He needs to be interviewed. His former coaches need to be interviewed. It's really tough to do that portion of the evaluation as amateur draft enthusiast.

[Hibachi_0]

If Nuñez falls to the 2nd round I would take him without hesitation. By the way, even if in the video doesn't look like it he is left handed.

Read on Twitter

[9 and 20]

When and how did French dudes start become the hot prospects all of a sudden? Seems like they have overtaken the guys from the Balkans. Grundle in all his trips over there couldn't get in on this trend early? Kevin Seraphin ahead of his time??

[nate33]

When and how did French dudes start become the hot prospects all of a sudden? Seems like they have overtaken the guys from the Balkans. Grundle in all his trips over there couldn't get in on this trend early? Kevin Seraphin ahead of his time??

France has a lot more African immigrants than most of the rest of Europe, and probably have more scouting and connections to West Africa in general. They combine the advantages of that large, somewhat untapped talent pool with the superior big man development system typical of European leagues.

[Hibachi_0]

When and how did French dudes start become the hot prospects all of a sudden? Seems like they have overtaken the guys from the Balkans. Grundle in all his trips over there couldn't get in on this trend early? Kevin Seraphin ahead of his time??

France has a lot more African immigrants than most of the rest of Europe, and probably have more scouting and connections to West Africa in general. They combine the advantages of that large, somewhat untapped talent pool with the superior big man development system typical of European leagues.

It is because of the African immigrants, in terms of scouting in Africa Real Madrid is ahaead of any team in Europe, followed by Barcelona. All of the prospects from France are french (if that makes any sense, hope it does). Out of the european basketball leagues, the french is the most similar to the NBA in terms of basketball style. I believe that plays its part too.

[Frichuela]

If Nuñez falls to the 2nd round I would take him without hesitation. By the way, even if in the video doesn't look like it he is left handed.

Read on Twitter

Count me in on the Nunez fan camp. And yes, he is left handed. He did pretty well in the last WC, being the starting point guard of Spain at 19-years of age.

[payitforward]

When and how did French dudes start become the hot prospects all of a sudden? Seems like they have overtaken the guys from the Balkans. Grundle in all his trips over there couldn't get in on this trend early? Kevin Seraphin ahead of his time??

France has a lot more African immigrants than most of the rest of Europe, and probably have more scouting and connections to West Africa in general. They combine the advantages of that large, somewhat untapped talent pool with the superior big man development system typical of European leagues.

Yes... it's mostly guys from the old French West Africa -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_West_Africa

[Frichuela]

This guy (and Sheppard) are potential targets for us in the lottery…

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?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

[dckingsfan]

Nate, you would take Sheppard top 3 over Sarr?

I don't know yet.

Sarr has almost limitless potential, but it's going to depend on his work ethic. He is a total project. I think any assessment of Sarr is going to have to involve more than just film. He needs to be interviewed. His former coaches need to be interviewed. It's really tough to do that portion of the evaluation as amateur draft enthusiast.

And then as a FO you have to have your plan as to when you want to be relevant. And do you want to roll the dice multiple times with high upsides or go for more ready to roll guys.

What I am saying is that this FO must have a process - and they will probably trust their processes.

Example from this board. If PIF was running the process they would trade down repeatedly to garner more picks (just an example). Then PIF would stick with his "process" long-term as it is a long-term numbers game.

[tontoz]

At this point I would prefer to go the pg route with Castle/Topic/ Sheppard. Hard to pick between them with the info we have now.

I am not sold on Sarr. His shot doesn't look good and a big part of what makes Embiid/ Jokic so good is their shot. Not to mention being bigger than everyone else.

I definitely don't want another wing