NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[QPR]

I think the point is the effectiveness of Denver's supporting cast is very heavily tied to Jokic, so saying he has a great supporting cast boosts his case rather than hurts it.

[dygaction]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

[Bob8]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Don't you think that getting Chet is essential for Thunder in offensive and defensive side? He's essential for Thunder being 4th best defensive team and you should understand that helps SGA's defensive stats too, like it helps his +/-. And G-Will made huge leap from his rookie year too. You can't act like that SGA is the sole reason for their jump in standings. Those 2 made a huge difference. Denver on the other hand has evidently worse roster this year.

H2H, I have heard that head2head against Luka doesn't count, but against Jokic should?

Leave advanced stats for the moment, and tell me in which areas of his game is SGA made so huge leap to lead his team from 10th position to 2nd? Chet and G-wiil added 22 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks this year. And team D has made huge improvement because of them. They both have a lot better defensive rtg than SGA, especially Chet is a game changer for OKC. And don't forget what great spacing is Chet providing for SGA. It looks to me that they're the main reason for Thunder being that much better.

OKC were far the most lucky with injuries, one injury of top 3 players and they will be 4th at best.

[dygaction]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Don't you think that getting Chet is essential for Thunder in offensive and defensive side? He's essential for Thunder being 4th best defensive team and you should understand that helps SGA's defensive stats too, like it helps his +/-. And G-Will made huge leap from his rookie year too. You can't act like that SGA is the sole reason for their jump in standings. Those 2 made a huge difference. Denver on the other hand has evidently worse roster this year.

H2H, I have heard that head2head against Luka doesn't count, but against Jokic should?

Leave advanced stats for the moment, and tell me in which areas of his game is SGA made so huge leap to lead his team from 10th position to 2nd? Chet and G-wiil added 22 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks this year. And team D has made huge improvement because of them. They both have a lot better defensive rtg than SGA, especially Chet is a game changer for OKC. And don't forget what great spacing is Chet providing for SGA. It looks to me that they're the main reason for Thunder being that much better.

OKC were far the most lucky with injuries, one injury of top 3 players and they will be 4th at best.

MVP is a whole season award, it takes excellence, consistency, team, and luck to get it. Jokic's 2nd mvp was also because other candidates also had various problems. If Mavs can go supernova the rest of the season there is still chance for Luka, but he is only 24 and things are getting better for the next few seasons.

[RB34]

I hope Kawhi isn’t getting as much traction in this thread as he is in the media.

[Bob8]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Don't you think that getting Chet is essential for Thunder in offensive and defensive side? He's essential for Thunder being 4th best defensive team and you should understand that helps SGA's defensive stats too, like it helps his +/-. And G-Will made huge leap from his rookie year too. You can't act like that SGA is the sole reason for their jump in standings. Those 2 made a huge difference. Denver on the other hand has evidently worse roster this year.

H2H, I have heard that head2head against Luka doesn't count, but against Jokic should?

Leave advanced stats for the moment, and tell me in which areas of his game is SGA made so huge leap to lead his team from 10th position to 2nd? Chet and G-wiil added 22 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks this year. And team D has made huge improvement because of them. They both have a lot better defensive rtg than SGA, especially Chet is a game changer for OKC. And don't forget what great spacing is Chet providing for SGA. It looks to me that they're the main reason for Thunder being that much better.

OKC were far the most lucky with injuries, one injury of top 3 players and they will be 4th at best.

MVP is a whole season award, it takes excellence, consistency, team, and luck to get it. Jokic's 2nd mvp was also because other candidates also had various problems. If Mavs can go supernova the rest of the season there is still chance for Luka, but he is only 24 and things are getting better for the next few seasons.

I have a feeling that people are become prisoners of advanced stats, which many even don't understand. People just believe that advanced by default means better, but there's a catch, basketball is a team sport, so influence of teammates is pretty big. Better team D, better advanced stats for everyone, better +/- and better results. Better spacing, easier driving, which is bread and butter for SGA. And so on. Thunder being classic example of that. They made a big leap and people by default believe it's mainly about SGA, but using a little bit of common sense, it should be obvious that far the biggest part of this leap is because of Chet.

I'm not saying that he's better player than SGA, he's not. I'm saying that he has provided critical mass for OKC's jump. He made D much better, by his rim protection and being able to switch. He brings great spacing for SGA with outside shooting. He enables SGA, by covering his back, to risk more in D, which enables him to get more steals. He's just perfect teammate for SGA.

OKC's rise shouldn't be some big surprise, just imagine what would have happened, if Wemby would have joined playin/playoff team? Players like Chet normally don't and in good teams, they end in bottom feeders. Chet playing his first season, because of injury, In top 10 team is a rare case.

[ty 4191]

Perhaps not a serious MVP candidate, but this key is one hell of a player....

Read on Twitter

Career Triple-Double Leaders/(career regular season games played)

1. Russell Westbrook, 198 (1,146 RS games played)
2. Oscar Robertson, 181 (1,040)
3. LeBron James, 139 (1,470)
3. Magic Johnson, 138 (906)
4. Nikola Jokić, 136 (648)
6. Jason Kidd, 107 (1,319)
7. James Harden, 79 (1,047)
8. Wilt Chamberlain 78 (1,045)
9. Luka Dončić, 66 (376)
10. Larry Bird, 59 (897)
11. Domantas Sabonis, 50 (547)

[_NoMas]

I still have Jokic just above SGA and Giannis, but it is interesting how narratives and reputations dominate this award. If Curry, for example, was putting up SGAs numbers and defence on the 2 seed, he’d probably be unanimous MVP…

[Godymas]

i can't help but feel like SGA should really be running away with the MVP right now. Like I get the argument for Jokic, oh he is Denver's offense, he does things no one else can do

But considering the position SGA plays, I would argue he's as impactful of a guard as Jokic is impactful a center, and right now OKC is ahead of Denver (even if it's just a small lead) in the standings. If OKC finishes with that top 2 seed, while Denver maybe dips off a little closer to playoffs with a 4th seed finish, SGA would 100% deserve it.

HOWEVER, even today, the argument for SGA just off his pure #s is very much there.

Just do a side by side comparison, Jokic's VORP gets massively inflated due to his position and rebounding. According to BPM Jokic is #1 in DBPM, but nothing actually supports that as true. However, SGA is #2 in VORP right now as a guard, #4 in DBPM (which will be 3 because Embiid will fall off the list), leads the league in steals which shows the impact he has on defense. SGA is 1st in Offensive Win Share, 5th in defensive Win Share. He beats out Jokic on both of these crucial categories which measure that his impact towards winning might just be better than Jokic even if Jokic is a BPM monster. Jokic and SGA have almost exactly the same WS/48. Once again though, Jokic is a Center which gets inflation in these stats, SGA is pretty much matching the impact Jokic has in a lot of ways as a guard which is unbelievably impressive.

[WarriorGM]

I have one big problem with SGA. To be blunt: free throw attempts. I don't know if he deserves them or not but I am skeptical of something that can be influenced so much by the refs being a major factor in a player's game.

[Bob8]

i can't help but feel like SGA should really be running away with the MVP right now. Like I get the argument for Jokic, oh he is Denver's offense, he does things no one else can do

But considering the position SGA plays, I would argue he's as impactful of a guard as Jokic is impactful a center, and right now OKC is ahead of Denver (even if it's just a small lead) in the standings. If OKC finishes with that top 2 seed, while Denver maybe dips off a little closer to playoffs with a 4th seed finish, SGA would 100% deserve it.

HOWEVER, even today, the argument for SGA just off his pure #s is very much there.

Just do a side by side comparison, Jokic's VORP gets massively inflated due to his position and rebounding. According to BPM Jokic is #1 in DBPM, but nothing actually supports that as true. However, SGA is #2 in VORP right now as a guard, #4 in DBPM (which will be 3 because Embiid will fall off the list), leads the league in steals which shows the impact he has on defense. SGA is 1st in Offensive Win Share, 5th in defensive Win Share. He beats out Jokic on both of these crucial categories which measure that his impact towards winning might just be better than Jokic even if Jokic is a BPM monster. Jokic and SGA have almost exactly the same WS/48. Once again though, Jokic is a Center which gets inflation in these stats, SGA is pretty much matching the impact Jokic has in a lot of ways as a guard which is unbelievably impressive.

You're forgetting something, Jokic might be C but he's basically Denver's Pg. He's doing 2 jobs for Denver and is in both better than SGA.

[Wolfgang630]

I have one big problem with SGA. To be blunt: free throw attempts. I don't know if he deserves them or not but I am skeptical of something that can be influenced so much by the refs being a major factor in a player's game.

I have a feeling SGA will become a disliked player. Because he’s so new it’s all fine and people are rooting for him. But this free throw thing could turn into a negative (could being the keyword) as he moves forward in his career.

[CharityStripe34]

Yesterday we had Giannis vs Jokic and it barely got 2 posts during the actual game (most of the posts were about Luka!). This thread is a very different place without the Embiid super stans.

Probably because both those guys are "boring" in terms of on court personalities. They're just consistently really good. Doesn't help that both times they played each other the games were not featured/hyped on the national stage. And they've both won four of the last five MVP trophies, so it's fresher to talk about new candidates like SGA and Luka, who are both awesome to be fair.

[iggymcfrack]

I just don't understand how Luka isn't 2nd in the MVP race blows my mind he's not.

Too much emphasis on team record, that's why. Its literately the only argument used against Luka.

Jokic and Shai have a massive advantage playing with a better supporting cast. They are being heralded for something they had nothing to do with ie team management putting contending worthy pieces around them. Put a toxic player like Kyrie and coach like Kidd in their company and lets see how great their team record looks.

For the record, Luka is my MVP. He's excelling by putting the Mav's in a favorable position yet again despite overcoming more hurdles with the personel around him. He's doing more with less. That's the definition of an MVP to me.

Do you even read anything? It’s only mentioned every 3 pages in this thread. Luka’s not top 3 in a single advanced stat that I can find. He ranks between 4th and 12th in the most reputable metrics. He has the worst on/off and impact of any of the 9 MVP candidates listed in this thread. He’s the worst defender of any of the 5 serious candidates. He’s played the least of any of the 5 serious candidates. He holds the ball too much to the point that the box score overrates his offense and even in OBPM and OWS, he’s still not top 3. Even if the Mavs had the best record in the West, I’d still only have him 4th on my ballot.

[iggymcfrack]

i can't help but feel like SGA should really be running away with the MVP right now. Like I get the argument for Jokic, oh he is Denver's offense, he does things no one else can do

But considering the position SGA plays, I would argue he's as impactful of a guard as Jokic is impactful a center, and right now OKC is ahead of Denver (even if it's just a small lead) in the standings. If OKC finishes with that top 2 seed, while Denver maybe dips off a little closer to playoffs with a 4th seed finish, SGA would 100% deserve it.

HOWEVER, even today, the argument for SGA just off his pure #s is very much there.

Just do a side by side comparison, Jokic's VORP gets massively inflated due to his position and rebounding. According to BPM Jokic is #1 in DBPM, but nothing actually supports that as true. However, SGA is #2 in VORP right now as a guard, #4 in DBPM (which will be 3 because Embiid will fall off the list), leads the league in steals which shows the impact he has on defense. SGA is 1st in Offensive Win Share, 5th in defensive Win Share. He beats out Jokic on both of these crucial categories which measure that his impact towards winning might just be better than Jokic even if Jokic is a BPM monster. Jokic and SGA have almost exactly the same WS/48. Once again though, Jokic is a Center which gets inflation in these stats, SGA is pretty much matching the impact Jokic has in a lot of ways as a guard which is unbelievably impressive.

First off, people misunderstand DBPM all the time. It’s not like BPM generates a number for offense and then generates a number for defense and then they add them up. They generate a number for BPM which is for overall total on court impact. Then OBPM and DBPM are a rough attempt to split this number into offense and defense which the creators of the stat themselves admit is very half-assed. If Jokic’s DBPM is overly high, then the conclusion to draw is that more of Jokic’s BPM should go to offense, not that the stat itself is faulty.

Also, I’m not saying Jokić is as good of a defender as SGA, but saying there’s “nothing” to support him having a big edge defensively is false. The last 3 years, Jokic’s defensive on/off has ranked in the 95th, 92nd, and 84th percentile. SGA’s defensive on/off has ranked in the 21st, 27th, and 30th percentile.

Jokic also does a lot of hidden things that help the defense. His constant pushing the pace wears down the opposing team. The incredibly efficient offense he directs keeps the other team from getting out in transition. He’s basically a coach on the floor, constantly telling other players what position to be in and calling out the other team’s plays. And then on top of that, he has the quickest hands of any center in the entire NBA. He’s a much more valuable defender than he gets credit for.

[Bob8]

I just don't understand how Luka isn't 2nd in the MVP race blows my mind he's not.

Too much emphasis on team record, that's why. Its literately the only argument used against Luka.

Jokic and Shai have a massive advantage playing with a better supporting cast. They are being heralded for something they had nothing to do with ie team management putting contending worthy pieces around them. Put a toxic player like Kyrie and coach like Kidd in their company and lets see how great their team record looks.

For the record, Luka is my MVP. He's excelling by putting the Mav's in a favorable position yet again despite overcoming more hurdles with the personel around him. He's doing more with less. That's the definition of an MVP to me.

Do you even read anything? It’s only mentioned every 3 pages in this thread. Luka’s not top 3 in a single advanced stat that I can find. He ranks between 4th and 12th in the most reputable metrics. He has the worst on/off and impact of any of the 9 MVP candidates listed in this thread. He’s the worst defender of any of the 5 serious candidates. He’s played the least of any of the 5 serious candidates. He holds the ball too much to the point that the box score overrates his offense and even in OBPM and OWS, he’s still not top 3. Even if the Mavs had the best record in the West, I’d still only have him 4th on my ballot.

And you don't care that Mavs starters are non-stop injured? They had 30 diffent starting lineups, OKC had 6 and Denver 9. Kinda mind boggling, don't you think? How many wins would OKC had, if 2nd and 3rd option would have missed 40+ games and all others 10+? Just look at OKC 2 years back and you will see the answer. And look at SGA's +/- 2 years back too. But yes, forget the context of the numbers, just + /- matters.

Look at lineup most used by the Mavs and tell me, who should handle the ball, if not Luka?

Considering everything it's a miracle that Mavs are 7th.

[iggymcfrack]

Too much emphasis on team record, that's why. Its literately the only argument used against Luka.

Jokic and Shai have a massive advantage playing with a better supporting cast. They are being heralded for something they had nothing to do with ie team management putting contending worthy pieces around them. Put a toxic player like Kyrie and coach like Kidd in their company and lets see how great their team record looks.

For the record, Luka is my MVP. He's excelling by putting the Mav's in a favorable position yet again despite overcoming more hurdles with the personel around him. He's doing more with less. That's the definition of an MVP to me.

Do you even read anything? It’s only mentioned every 3 pages in this thread. Luka’s not top 3 in a single advanced stat that I can find. He ranks between 4th and 12th in the most reputable metrics. He has the worst on/off and impact of any of the 9 MVP candidates listed in this thread. He’s the worst defender of any of the 5 serious candidates. He’s played the least of any of the 5 serious candidates. He holds the ball too much to the point that the box score overrates his offense and even in OBPM and OWS, he’s still not top 3. Even if the Mavs had the best record in the West, I’d still only have him 4th on my ballot.

And you don't care that Mavs starters are non-stop injured? They had 30 diffent startin lineups, OKC had 6 and Denver 9. Kinda mind boggling, don't you think? How many wins would OKC had, if 2nd and 3rd option would have missed 40+ games and all others 10+? Just look at OKC 2 years back and you will see the answer. And look at SGA's +/- 2 years back too. But yes, forget the context of the numbers, just + /- matters.

Look at lineup most used by the Mavs and tell me, who should handle the ball, if not Luka?

Considering everything it's a miracle that Mavs are 7th.

I’m not saying Luka shouldn’t be the primary ball handler. I’m saying he should move the ball a lot faster when he gets it instead of self indulgently dribbling for 8 seconds doing nothing. Jokic has more touches than Luka, but he doesn’t have anywhere near as much time with the ball because he’s always looking to get the next action going.

Also we saw 2 years ago what Jokić looks like with everyone injured and constantly shuffling lineups. He led the Nuggets to a +8.4 NetRtg with a much worse supporting cast. Luka has Kyrie and Lively and Exum and the Mavs still have a +2.2 NetRtg with him on the floor. That’s exactly the same as it was last year when the Mavs didn’t qualify for the play-in. They’re only doing better this year in the non-Luka minutes. I wonder has anyone ever finished top 3 in the MVP race with that bad of a NetRtg? I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head.

[Bob8]

Do you even read anything? It’s only mentioned every 3 pages in this thread. Luka’s not top 3 in a single advanced stat that I can find. He ranks between 4th and 12th in the most reputable metrics. He has the worst on/off and impact of any of the 9 MVP candidates listed in this thread. He’s the worst defender of any of the 5 serious candidates. He’s played the least of any of the 5 serious candidates. He holds the ball too much to the point that the box score overrates his offense and even in OBPM and OWS, he’s still not top 3. Even if the Mavs had the best record in the West, I’d still only have him 4th on my ballot.

And you don't care that Mavs starters are non-stop injured? They had 30 diffent startin lineups, OKC had 6 and Denver 9. Kinda mind boggling, don't you think? How many wins would OKC had, if 2nd and 3rd option would have missed 40+ games and all others 10+? Just look at OKC 2 years back and you will see the answer. And look at SGA's +/- 2 years back too. But yes, forget the context of the numbers, just + /- matters.

Look at lineup most used by the Mavs and tell me, who should handle the ball, if not Luka?

Considering everything it's a miracle that Mavs are 7th.

I’m not saying Luka shouldn’t be the primary ball handler. I’m saying he should move the ball a lot faster when he gets it instead of self indulgently dribbling for 8 seconds doing nothing. Jokic has more touches than Luka, but he doesn’t have anywhere near as much time with the ball because he’s always looking to get the next action going.

Also we saw 2 years ago what Jokić looks like with everyone injured and constantly shuffling lineups. He led the Nuggets to a +8.4 NetRtg with a much worse supporting cast. Luka has Kyrie and Lively and Exum and the Mavs still have a +2.2 NetRtg with him on the floor. That’s exactly the same as it was last year when the Mavs didn’t qualify for the play-in. They’re only doing better this year in the non-Luka minutes. I wonder has anyone ever finished top 3 in the MVP race with that bad of a NetRtg? I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head.

Look at how many minutes have designated starters Luka/Kyrie/Exum and Lively played together? 26 minutes. But hey, they have + 61 netrtg together. The highest number is 99 minutes for the most used Mavs lineup, with DJJ and Grant. Second most is 63 minutes with Luka/Green/THJ/Grant and Lively. Kinda difficult to develop chemistry, if you don't play together, don't you think?

So it's 26 minutes vs. 580 of Thunder and 654 of Denver.

SGA had -6.8 before he got Chet and G-Will. And if those 2 get injured, we will quickly see how much better SGA really is, may bet is not much.

[Woodsanity]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Jamal Murray got injured. I see the Nuggets struggling to stay afloat. Their roster is already pretty sub-par without Murray its flat out garbage.

I think SGA's odds of winning MVP went up a lot.

[Swish77]

I hope Kawhi isn’t getting as much traction in this thread as he is in the media.

He's hurt now. So who knows what happens.