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The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#421 » by pcbothwel » Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:27 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Yeah, he looked good. I think Buzelis is legit. In the 2nd half of the year he’s been much better. Shooting 52% from the field and 38.5% from 3. Racks up the steals and blocks, rebounds like a 4.

He’s playing on a team with zero guard play. No coaching, and a handful of self-centered teammates. Awful situation.

Still such a talented player. One of the only 1st overall type talents in the draft. Wagner/Avdija mold with even more upside.

How do you rank Cody Williams, Buzelis and Risacher?


Buzelis and Risacher in the same tier. Williams 1 below that.

Risacher is a mix of Klay & MPJ. Great shooting, IQ, and activity allow him to be a good defender (on and off ball), movement shooter/slasher, and score in transition. His lack of strength, creativity, and first step will be what limits his ceiling. He would be a great fit with Deni & Bilal, and wouldn’t hesitate to take him 5-7…
Buzelis is much more of the Deni/Kuz/Franz mold.

I don’t get the Williams fascination. Maybe it’s his brother, but nothing about him says top 5 pick.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#422 » by NatP4 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:58 pm

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#423 » by NatP4 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 3:10 pm

Someone will have to explain to me why Collin Murray-Boyles isn’t on any mocks. Dude is a lottery pick. 18 year old freshman on a good team posting these numbers per 40:

19.0 points 9.4 rebounds 3.5 assists 1.7 steals 1.6 blocks 2.4 turnovers 61.6% TS.

Elite physicality/touch/basketball IQ/motor. Fills the box score, elite defensively, great passer, unreal production for an 18 year old freshman.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#424 » by doclinkin » Sat Feb 17, 2024 4:28 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Yeah, he looked good. I think Buzelis is legit. In the 2nd half of the year he’s been much better. Shooting 52% from the field and 38.5% from 3. Racks up the steals and blocks, rebounds like a 4.

He’s playing on a team with zero guard play. No coaching, and a handful of self-centered teammates. Awful situation.

Still such a talented player. One of the only 1st overall type talents in the draft. Wagner/Avdija mold with even more upside.

How do you rank Cody Williams, Buzelis and Risacher?


I have Risacher as my #1 overall. Based on positional advantage.

Metrics are looking at him as if he is a SF, and knock him back due to anemic rebounding totals. But that's not the role he is posted on that team. His play shows him to be a backcourt shooter, working off movement and relocation. Shooting over the top of smaller defenders, blowing by bigs who are forced to step out and challenge. On offense, as a super-tall 2-guard he is succeeding: shooting over 50% from 3 in Eurocup play, 56% from 2. If a player's true position is wherever they play on defense, ZR is a 2-guard. There he is active and assertive, long arms deflecting passes and walling off zones on court. There he is functional, if skinny, but active and smart. At the NBA level he will be blown past and overpowered at times. But that's true of many young players. What I like most is that while he's young and inconsistent he tends to follow a bad game with a better performance in the next one.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/zaccharie-risacher-1/gamelog/2024/eurocup/

At 18 years old he's learning quickly. And having success in an adult league. Early in the year I was dismissive of the hype, but checking back in later I can see him growing fast. On this team he has a ready-made plug and play role, displacing the too-small Poole with a taller more defensively active player. HIs assist totals are meagre, but that also is both a function of his role (touch ball: shoot ball. Or drive) and the fact that he's not playing with dominant scorers. In the NBA that role is exactly what we need next to players like Tyus or Deni. A guy who is not hesitant to attack, and is an efficient mismatch. Floor stretcher. Hard to guard with a smaller player.

On the other Top 3 talents.

I like Buzelis' talent and potential, but he is not claiming the position that he will be playing at the next level, and has not been succeeding at the position that he's mimicking. Matas has not asserted himself playing next to Ron Holland, giving the lesser talented but harder working RH the space that Buzelis should be taking in the front court. Instead he has been too often playing in the role that Risacher has taken: a tall face-up gunner. But he's shooting only .262 from 3. He'd like to be a unicorn but right now only looks the part, has not succeeded at it. If he is a SF, cool, he rebounds well enough, is active at blocking shots etc. His outside shooting will improve and at some point he will be a mismatch gunner in a wanna-be Durant role. Plus shotblocking. Agreed with the assessment that he is trying to fit next to players who are not passing, so he is forced to make his own offense. Still,I don't like what I see on his competitiveness in that his team is losing while he has stepped aside and not claimed the alpha spot that a #1 overall player should display. He has the talent to be a no-question top selection. That he has not seized the position is an area of concern for me. He's more talented than Cooper Flagg. But Flagg is a problem on court because he competes harder than you.

Alex Sarr is similar question mark for me, given the mismatch between his talent and his production. Here, knocking him back a peg in my assessment is that he is NOT playing out of position. He is trying to do the job that he is suited for. He's just underperforming at it. It's not like he is new to the sport either given that he's come up through the French system, having played with Wemby et al. He's playing in a tough league against grown adults, but not as tough or as grown as he will face in the NBA. Great talent, but has some significant growth to go through.

I like Topic and Sheppard. Hard to assess how their BBIQ will translate, this sort of player often falls and then outperforms their draft slot. I like Castle as a match between his role at the next level and his success where he is, as well as positional size, athleticism and upside. I like many players lower down who will outperform their draft slot and could be available in a tradeback if we slipped in the lotto and my guy was not available.

But I have a strong feeling that in this draft, for this team, in the role that he will play at the next level, Risacher would be the right match of fit, talent, role, and upside. Positional length, IQ, and work ethic. I get the sense he is their guy. My feeling is there is a reason why very smart people are making some dumb decisions and there is a real reason why we see subtle tanking in substitutions and benching Deni at critical times, or playing Poole too many minutes.

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#425 » by NatP4 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 4:55 pm

Same league, Coulibaly a was a few months younger:

Coulibaly: 27 games: 10.0 points 6.1 rebounds 1.6 assists 1.5 steals 0.4 blocks 1.8 turnovers 53/45/60 57% on 2s

Risacher: 21 games: 16.5 points 5.6 rebounds 1.6 assists 1.6 steals 0.5 blocks 2.3 turnovers 46/37.7/72 54% on 2s

The numbers in the u21 league aren’t comparable. Coulibaly put up 22-6-2.5 with 2.6 steals and 1.2 blocks on 53/32/76 shooting as a 17 year old. Flashed stardom. Coulibaly was always the combination of flashing superstar upside in juniors, and elite low usage role player ability in the pro league.

Risacher in U21 at 17 years old: 14.5 points 6.5 rebounds 4.4 assists 1.9 steals 0.7 blocks and 4.0 turnovers on 42/29/73 shooting.

Risacher was pretty awful in juniors, and much better on the pro team in a simplified scoring/floor spacing role. Still has always had a brutal A/TO ratio and issue with tunnel vision. I can’t picture him defending NBA guards or handling the ball in a primary or secondary playmaking role. He’s an off ball shooting/scoring wing that’s average on D.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#426 » by tontoz » Sat Feb 17, 2024 5:01 pm

UConn playing #4 Marquette at 3. Castle is a big guy, as tall as SGA but with a NBA body already. He definitely looks like he could play bully ball in the NBA even now. His jumper looks a little odd to me though.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#427 » by doclinkin » Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:48 pm

NatP4 wrote:Risacher was pretty awful in juniors, and much better on the pro team in a simplified scoring/floor spacing role. Still has always had a brutal A/TO ratio and issue with tunnel vision. I can’t picture him defending NBA guards or handling the ball in a primary or secondary playmaking role. He’s an off ball shooting/scoring wing that’s average on D.


So your argument is that he used to be worse but is better in the pros.
Therefore he can't play pro ball.

Not sure if I buy the argument that what he did as a 17 year against other 17 year olds is somehow relevant.
Especially when you argue on the flipside when we are talking about the G league its fair to blame the terrible passers and immature play for the 6'11" Matas Buzelis coming up short.

As for 'brutal' with the ball: Risacher averages a grand total of 2 TOs per 36.
We are not talking a reckless trainwreck of a player who takes unnecessary risks with the ball.

Or if you want to compare just the LNB Pro A league, we are talking 1.4 TO per game (1 Assist, and 1 steal).
Where Bilal had .8 assists and .9 TOs per game in the same league.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/zaccharie-risacher-1.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/bilal-coulibaly-1.html

I think it makes the point actually, that both players when bumped up to the Pro level found a role that suited them and improved when the stakes were higher. Seems to me though you have taken a position and decided not to reexamine it. Cool. Me I'm constantly reassessing, especially with the young players, since the very thing you are looking for is growth and improvement, how do they respond to adversity. I'm rooting for Buzelis, I like the signs he may break out, I was disappointed he has fallen short. (Likewise Izan Almansa, though that was predictable. He'd have been better off joining a college team). I've been pleased to see Risacher is taking advantage of his opportunities, and the improvement IS the bright sign.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#428 » by nate33 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:36 pm

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Yeah, he looked good. I think Buzelis is legit. In the 2nd half of the year he’s been much better. Shooting 52% from the field and 38.5% from 3. Racks up the steals and blocks, rebounds like a 4.

He’s playing on a team with zero guard play. No coaching, and a handful of self-centered teammates. Awful situation.

Still such a talented player. One of the only 1st overall type talents in the draft. Wagner/Avdija mold with even more upside.

How do you rank Cody Williams, Buzelis and Risacher?


I don’t see it with Cody Williams. Defensive liability, rebounds like a PG, negative A/TO ratio. I wouldn’t pick him top 10. KJ Simpson drives the bus for that Colorado team, not Williams.

Risacher is a nice player, with production in a good league at 18 years old. Similar mold to Williams though, you have the mediocre rebounding and negative A/TO, but atleast average defensively. I think he’d be a fine pick at 7-12 range, but tops out as an average starter.

Buzelis is a top 3 talent. What are your thoughts?

I haven't really done a deep dive on them. I've watch a little tape on Buzelis, but that's about it. I ask because those are the guys I think the team is zeroing in on.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#429 » by nate33 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:44 pm

doclinkin wrote:I have Risacher as my #1 overall. Based on positional advantage.

Metrics are looking at him as if he is a SF, and knock him back due to anemic rebounding totals. But that's not the role he is posted on that team. His play shows him to be a backcourt shooter, working off movement and relocation. Shooting over the top of smaller defenders, blowing by bigs who are forced to step out and challenge. On offense, as a super-tall 2-guard he is succeeding: shooting over 50% from 3 in Eurocup play, 56% from 2. If a player's true position is wherever they play on defense, ZR is a 2-guard. There he is active and assertive, long arms deflecting passes and walling off zones on court. There he is functional, if skinny, but active and smart. At the NBA level he will be blown past and overpowered at times. But that's true of many young players. What I like most is that while he's young and inconsistent he tends to follow a bad game with a better performance in the next one.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/zaccharie-risacher-1/gamelog/2024/eurocup/

At 18 years old he's learning quickly. And having success in an adult league. Early in the year I was dismissive of the hype, but checking back in later I can see him growing fast. On this team he has a ready-made plug and play role, displacing the too-small Poole with a taller more defensively active player. HIs assist totals are meagre, but that also is both a function of his role (touch ball: shoot ball. Or drive) and the fact that he's not playing with dominant scorers. In the NBA that role is exactly what we need next to players like Tyus or Deni. A guy who is not hesitant to attack, and is an efficient mismatch. Floor stretcher. Hard to guard with a smaller player.

I like this idea of drafting Risacher to play SG. He may be a little weak as a ball handler to play SG, but we have ball-handling forwards to offset that. If he can be a quality movement shooter in the Kispert/MPJ mold while having the size to guard 1-5 in a switchable defensive scheme, that's a real useful tool. Basically, a taller Klay Thompson, though presumably not quite as good of a shooter.

I need to watch some video of his defense and get a feel of whether he can handle the SG position defensively. Honestly, it might not matter too much. If he is sharing the floor with Deni and Coulibaly, he will be guarding the third best wing on the opposition's team. He just needs to be good enough that teams don't hunt him.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#430 » by tontoz » Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:11 pm

Dominant win by UConn but not a great showing by castle. Strong team.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#431 » by NatP4 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:20 pm

Risacher with the U21 club per 36: 4.96 assists 4.55 turnovers

In 40 pro league games per 36: 1.66 assists 2.37 turnovers

Those are the numbers. Interpret them however you’d like.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#432 » by NatP4 » Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:35 am

Devin Carter with another monster game today: 31-14-3 on 14 shots. 7-10 from 3.

Gotta be creeping into lottery conversations.

KJ Simpson is absolutely lighting it up and putting Colorado on his back per usual. I think he’s the best guard in the country. He’ll be one of the biggest steals of the draft, probably goes 20-40 due to size.

Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier look absolutely awful. Neither of those guys are lottery talents.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#433 » by DCZards » Sun Feb 18, 2024 3:45 pm

Saw the Colorado-USC game last night. Was very impressed by your guy KJ Simpson, Nat.

Definitely a first round pick…probably should go in the top 20.

Williams struggled but I thought Collier played well.

With his ability to get to the rim, if Collier was a better outside shooter he’d be an easy top 5 pick. He already has the body, strength and aggressiveness you want at the next level. Had 9 assists to go with his 25 pts. At 6-5 I see him being a good combo guard in the NBA.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#434 » by NatP4 » Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:07 pm

DCZards wrote:Saw the Colorado-USC game last night. Was very impressed by your guy KJ Simpson, Nat.

Definitely a first round pick…probably should go in the top 20.

Williams struggled but I thought Collier played well.

With his ability to get to the rim, if Collier was a better outside shooter he’d be an easy top 5 pick. He already has the body, strength and aggressiveness you want at the next level. Had 9 assists to go with his 25 pts. At 6-5 I see him being a good combo guard in the NBA.


You’re right. I posted somewhere around the end of regulation, but Collier actually made some really tough plays down the stretch and in both OTs. He’s really carrying an awful USC team, guy has no help at all.

I can’t understand the lack of hype with Simpson. Maybe it’s the late west coast games, but he’s a gamer. Both ends of the floor, every crunch time possession was him scoring or dishing a clutch assist, and then locking someone down on defense. Electric first step and quick shot release, no one could guard him. He’s the definition of “it” factor just like Jalen Brunson at Nova. A 6’2 guard averaging 6 rebounds a game. Impressive player.

How many players in the country are posting 20 points 5 assists 6 rebounds and 2 steals on 62% TS?
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#435 » by tontoz » Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:23 pm

Watching the UK game now and Uganna Onyenso definitely looks like a NBA player. 7' 250 pounds, and is averaging 6 blocks and 10 rebounds per 36. He got 10 blocks last game against Ole Miss.

I don't recall seeing his name anywhere in the mocks.


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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#436 » by NatP4 » Sun Feb 18, 2024 4:46 pm

Sarr reminds me of Kuminga with the ignite. All the physical tools and effort, just a poor feel for the game. Looks awkward out there and has really poor hands. Definitely tons of bust potential, but I also understand the intrigue. He’s a 7 footer putting the ball on the floor and converting driving spin layups.

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#437 » by nate33 » Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:24 pm

NatP4 wrote:Sarr reminds me of Kuminga with the ignite. All the physical tools and effort, just a poor feel for the game. Looks awkward out there and has really poor hands. Definitely tons of bust potential, but I also understand the intrigue. He’s a 7 footer putting the ball on the floor and converting driving spin layups.

I agree with this assessment.

It would be one thing if he lacked effort. Then he would be an Deandre Ayton or Minnesota Andrew Wiggins type of player - a guy that frustrates you because he just won't even try to live up to his potential. But at least Sarr tries out there. I think he wants to be a good player, he just doesn't really understand how to do it.

The question is, if you have talent and effort, but no feel, can you still be a good player? Certainly, it'll take longer, because he'll develop at a slower pace, but is the high ceiling still there? Kuminga might be a good example. He looked like a likely bust through 3.5 seasons, but halfway through his 4th season, he has turned a corner and now looks like he'll be a plus starter for most of his career.

Anther guy with talent, effort but no feel is Rui Hachimura. Rui was also slow to develop but has sort of reached the level of "adequate starter". I'd say Sarr has a better motor than Rui though.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#438 » by tontoz » Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:54 pm

Big win for UK last night against #13 Auburn. Reed only scored 4 points. I think this is partly because the Auburn defense was obviously focused on him but also because UK had the lead all game.

He got 5 steals again. One I really liked was when he got switched into a much bigger player who tried to post him up. Instead of just staying behind him Reed got to the side of him and deflected the entry pass for a steal.

He did make a couple of nice mid-range shots and assists but a quiet game from him on offense.

I don't buy the 6'3 height. I suspect they measured him with shoes on.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#439 » by tontoz » Sun Feb 18, 2024 6:01 pm

I am definitely out on Sarr. I would rather have a C with no perimeter game as opposed to a mediocre one. A guy with no perimeter game will do more damage at the rim.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#440 » by jangles86 » Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:46 pm

Sarr moves incredibly well for a 7”+ footer. He is extremely raw but the athletic gifts are there to be potentially a defensive player of the year candidate at his peak.

He is a very raw version of Even Mobley right now.

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