Miami Heat Offseason Thread vol. 1: Post Mortem

[carnageta]

I was wondering, with technology and health information advances, are players able to score better now in older ages than in previous years/eras. It does seem that the NBA is seeing older players able to score more at ages they didn't before.

So, before this last season, the maximum number of players at age 34 or older scoring 20 ppg was 3 which happened 3 times, in 1998, 2003 and last season 2023. This year, that number has went up to twice that to 6.

So, by year, it's usually been 0 or 1 (years not shown were 0).

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

+----+------------+
|Year|Player Count|
+----+------------+
|1970|1           |
|1971|1           |
|1973|2           |
|1974|1           |
|1980|1           |
|1982|1           |
|1983|2           |
|1984|1           |
|1985|2           |
|1986|1           |
|1988|1           |
|1989|1           |
|1991|1           |
|1992|1           |
|1994|1           |
|1997|2           |
|1998|3           |
|1999|1           |
|2000|1           |
|2001|1           |
|2002|2           |
|2003|3           |
|2013|1           |
|2014|1           |
|2015|1           |
|2019|1           |
|2020|1           |
|2021|1           |
|2022|1           |
|2023|3           |
|2024|6           |
+----+------------+


Here's those players who average 20ppg at age 34 or older and only one of them had a great NetRating which is a great number to look at when looking at non-roleplayers. NetRating is from the calculated ORTG-DRTG which tries to extract what that player is bringing to each side of the court, not just the raw numbers what the team does on the court when that particular player is on the court.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

+----------------+---+--------+----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player          |Age|Position|Team|MPG |TSPCT|FGA |PPG |PP36|APG|RPG|3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+----------------+---+--------+----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Stephen Curry   |35 |PG      |GSW |32.7|0.616|19.5|26.4|29.1|5.1|4.5|0.408|119 |117 |2        |
|LeBron James    |39 |PF      |LAL |35.3|0.63 |17.9|25.7|26.2|8.3|7.3|0.41 |120 |114 |6        |
|Kevin Durant    |35 |PF      |PHO |37.2|0.626|19.1|27.1|26.2|5  |6.6|0.413|118 |114 |4        |
|DeMar DeRozan   |34 |SF      |CHI |37.8|0.584|17.2|24  |22.8|5.3|4.3|0.333|122 |118 |4        |
|Bojan Bogdanović|34 |PF      |DET |32.9|0.6  |15.2|20.2|22.1|2.5|3.4|0.415|110 |121 |-11      |
|Jimmy Butler    |34 |PF      |MIA |34  |0.626|13.2|20.8|22  |5  |5.3|0.414|129 |113 |16       |
+----------------+---+--------+----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+

Good data.

So in other words, Jimmy James Butler is still elite

[greg4012]

If there’s a path that the Hawks simply want a few contracts that end sooner while getting a few young assets then Rozier, Duncan, Jovic, and 2029 1st could be possible. Based off Riley’s presser about depth i don’t think he even does this for Trae.

I do wonder if they are motivated to getoff of Deandre Hunter's deal sooner. He's been pretty disappointing (one of their worst defenders by metrics) and is making $21M-$24M per year thru 2027. Suddenly, Duncan's contract can be seen as cap relief!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I was wondering, with technology and health information advances, are players able to score better now in older ages than in previous years/eras. It does seem that the NBA is seeing older players able to score more at ages they didn't before.

So, before this last season, the maximum number of players at age 34 or older scoring 20 ppg was 3 which happened 3 times, in 1998, 2003 and last season 2023. This year, that number has went up to twice that to 6.

So, by year, it's usually been 0 or 1 (years not shown were 0).

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

+----+------------+
|Year|Player Count|
+----+------------+
|1970|1           |
|1971|1           |
|1973|2           |
|1974|1           |
|1980|1           |
|1982|1           |
|1983|2           |
|1984|1           |
|1985|2           |
|1986|1           |
|1988|1           |
|1989|1           |
|1991|1           |
|1992|1           |
|1994|1           |
|1997|2           |
|1998|3           |
|1999|1           |
|2000|1           |
|2001|1           |
|2002|2           |
|2003|3           |
|2013|1           |
|2014|1           |
|2015|1           |
|2019|1           |
|2020|1           |
|2021|1           |
|2022|1           |
|2023|3           |
|2024|6           |
+----+------------+


Here's those players who average 20ppg at age 34 or older and only one of them had a great NetRating which is a great number to look at when looking at non-roleplayers. NetRating is from the calculated ORTG-DRTG which tries to extract what that player is bringing to each side of the court per 100 possessions, not just the raw numbers what the team does on the court when that particular player is on the court.

Code: Select all

+----------------+---+--------+----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player          |Age|Position|Team|MPG |TSPCT|FGA |PPG |PP36|APG|RPG|3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+----------------+---+--------+----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Stephen Curry   |35 |PG      |GSW |32.7|0.616|19.5|26.4|29.1|5.1|4.5|0.408|119 |117 |2        |
|LeBron James    |39 |PF      |LAL |35.3|0.63 |17.9|25.7|26.2|8.3|7.3|0.41 |120 |114 |6        |
|Kevin Durant    |35 |PF      |PHO |37.2|0.626|19.1|27.1|26.2|5  |6.6|0.413|118 |114 |4        |
|DeMar DeRozan   |34 |SF      |CHI |37.8|0.584|17.2|24  |22.8|5.3|4.3|0.333|122 |118 |4        |
|Bojan Bogdanović|34 |PF      |DET |32.9|0.6  |15.2|20.2|22.1|2.5|3.4|0.415|110 |121 |-11      |
|Jimmy Butler    |34 |PF      |MIA |34  |0.626|13.2|20.8|22  |5  |5.3|0.414|129 |113 |16       |
+----------------+---+--------+----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+

I was saying this last summer during the Dame stuff but we’re going to see longevity from these stars last a little bit longer than we’re used to in this inflated stats era, we’re at the beginning of it now but we’re already witnessing it with LeBron, Curry, KD, even Jimmy when he tries. Signs point to those guys being elite for at least 2-3 more years

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Trae has now become INSANELY underrated, this is exactly what we needed (if Mitchell extends) he will single handedly solve our offensive issues and can arguably unlock Bam better than any other player in the league. We will finally see him get some easy buckets and an increased shot quality for a player who averages 20 with a bottom 3 shot quality at his position (23 with a bottom 3 SQ in the league in the playoffs).

You either stay home on Trae and give up an easy lob/dump off or you swarm bam like you did all this season and get torched by Trae floaters all game. Pick your poison.

Trae would easily be the most offensively gifted guard we’ve had since Wade

[AirP.]

I was saying this last summer during the Dame stuff but we’re going to see longevity from these stars last a little bit longer than we’re used to in this inflated stats era, we’re at the beginning of it now but we’re already witnessing it with LeBron, Curry, KD, even Jimmy when he tries. Signs point to those guys being elite for at least 2-3 more years

I added games to the 34 or over players scoring 20+ ppg for this year, seems needed in this age context (I added it in on my original post with these players). This kind of data might be something Riley saw, seeing these other older players being able to play 71+ games. Without the death of a loved one, Butler probably would have played 63 games which is 2 games lower than the most games he's played in a regular season for Miami.`

Code: Select all

+----------------+---+--------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Player          |Age|Position|Team|Games|MPG |TSPCT|FGA |PPG |PP36|APG|RPG|3pt% |ORTG|DRTG|NetRating|
+----------------+---+--------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+
|Stephen Curry   |35 |PG      |74  |74   |32.7|0.616|19.5|26.4|29.1|5.1|4.5|0.408|119 |117 |2        |
|LeBron James    |39 |PF      |71  |71   |35.3|0.63 |17.9|25.7|26.2|8.3|7.3|0.41 |120 |114 |6        |
|Kevin Durant    |35 |PF      |75  |75   |37.2|0.626|19.1|27.1|26.2|5  |6.6|0.413|118 |114 |4        |
|DeMar DeRozan   |34 |SF      |79  |79   |37.8|0.584|17.2|24  |22.8|5.3|4.3|0.333|122 |118 |4        |
|Bojan Bogdanović|34 |PF      |28  |28   |32.9|0.6  |15.2|20.2|22.1|2.5|3.4|0.415|110 |121 |-11      |
|Jimmy Butler    |34 |PF      |60  |60   |34  |0.626|13.2|20.8|22  |5  |5.3|0.414|129 |113 |16       |
+----------------+---+--------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+---+---+-----+----+----+---------+


[greg4012]

Trae has now become INSANELY underrated, this is exactly what we needed (if Mitchell extends) he will single handedly solve our offensive issues and can arguably unlock Bam better than any other player in the league. We will finally see him get some easy buckets and an increased shot quality for a player who averages 20 with a bottom 3 shot quality at his position (23 with a bottom 3 SQ in the league in the playoffs).

You either stay home on Trae and give up an easy lob/dump off or you swarm bam like you did all this season and get torched by Trae floaters all game. Pick your poison.

Trae would easily be the most offensively gifted guard we’ve had since Wade

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Trae has now become INSANELY underrated, this is exactly what we needed (if Mitchell extends) he will single handedly solve our offensive issues and can arguably unlock Bam better than any other player in the league. We will finally see him get some easy buckets and an increased shot quality for a player who averages 20 with a bottom 3 shot quality at his position (23 with a bottom 3 SQ in the league in the playoffs).

You either stay home on Trae and give up an easy lob/dump off or you swarm bam like you did all this season and get torched by Trae floaters all game. Pick your poison.

Trae would easily be the most offensively gifted guard we’ve had since Wade

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

We’re talking about a 25 year old who averages 26-10 for his career, a 3 time all star in 6 seasons (honestly should probably be 5) has an all nba team on his resume and pushed the champs in 2021 to 6 games in the ECF with as you said, no all star teammates. If reports are true and he’s cheaper than Ingram that’s insane.

Is this not the exact same situations we always talk about with Pat Riley swiping in and getting elite talent when it’s value is at its lowest?

[Beenie]

If our best options are Trey Young/Brandon Ingram types, I really do wonder if we're not better off rebuilding.

Go full kids empowerment, draft at 15#, get a high pick this upcoming year, sell off everyone but Jovic/Jamie/Bam/This year's pick.

Start young and fresh, clean books.

Just having an hard time justifying going all in for Trey young. Like...what's the end goal there?
Are we winning big in the playoffs with him?
Will you enjoy that style of basketball?

Nash’s Suns teams were fun to watch

Ran into a Tim Duncan buzzsaw unfortunately for them

A well constructed team around Trae could yield similar success imo

Nash's Suns ousted Timmy D and the Spurs on numerous occasions. It was truly the Wild West from the mid-late 2000s. The year they did get past the Spurs, they ran into the Kobe/Gasol Lakers.

Nash/ D’Antoni Suns lost to the Spurs in the playoffs 3 times:
04/05 in the WCF 4-1
06/07 2nd round 4-2
07/08 1st round 4-1

[twix2500]

I still think Paul George should be a target. The Heat wouldn't have to give up much. And a dark horse player being Khris Middleton.

PG: Rozier
SG: Butler
SF: George/Middleton - Jaquez
PF: Jovic
Ce: Adebayo

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[AirP.]

Trae has now become INSANELY underrated, this is exactly what we needed (if Mitchell extends) he will single handedly solve our offensive issues and can arguably unlock Bam better than any other player in the league. We will finally see him get some easy buckets and an increased shot quality for a player who averages 20 with a bottom 3 shot quality at his position (23 with a bottom 3 SQ in the league in the playoffs).

You either stay home on Trae and give up an easy lob/dump off or you swarm bam like you did all this season and get torched by Trae floaters all game. Pick your poison.

Trae would easily be the most offensively gifted guard we’ve had since Wade

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

[Bishop45]

I'd take PG, but I think he's still worth more than we have. Especially to the Clippers

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Trae has now become INSANELY underrated, this is exactly what we needed (if Mitchell extends) he will single handedly solve our offensive issues and can arguably unlock Bam better than any other player in the league. We will finally see him get some easy buckets and an increased shot quality for a player who averages 20 with a bottom 3 shot quality at his position (23 with a bottom 3 SQ in the league in the playoffs).

You either stay home on Trae and give up an easy lob/dump off or you swarm bam like you did all this season and get torched by Trae floaters all game. Pick your poison.

Trae would easily be the most offensively gifted guard we’ve had since Wade

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

He would have 1 at minimum here in Bam, 2 if Jimmy is locked and we’re a top seed but I’d be willing to bet a heavy amount of money on Bam being an all star with Trae and having either easily the best season of his career or arguably the best season.

Luckily for us defense is Spos calling card and we have the best defender and most versatile defender in the world over the last 5 years best defender of his generation tbh. We should be looking for 3 and D veteran players to fill the roster out and help on defense for sure though.

[greg4012]

Trae has now become INSANELY underrated, this is exactly what we needed (if Mitchell extends) he will single handedly solve our offensive issues and can arguably unlock Bam better than any other player in the league. We will finally see him get some easy buckets and an increased shot quality for a player who averages 20 with a bottom 3 shot quality at his position (23 with a bottom 3 SQ in the league in the playoffs).

You either stay home on Trae and give up an easy lob/dump off or you swarm bam like you did all this season and get torched by Trae floaters all game. Pick your poison.

Trae would easily be the most offensively gifted guard we’ve had since Wade

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

Knew that was coming. Not really that interesting. More of an exploration of the original tidbit.

Bet it wouldn't stop Bam Adebayo from impacting the game in a full capacity.

Defense is obviously a concern. At least Miami would be uniquely set up with the pre-eminent defensive superstar in the game. I'm here for the experiment.

Another interesting tidbit: Among the 8 teams that made the 2nd round of the playoffs, 6 of them had a player with higher usage than Trae this season (including Donovan Mitchell).

[3ammy3uck3ts]

PG wants that Supermax and is injury prone. If we’re extending Jimmy I’m not sure that’s the move with him also likely missing a ton of time considering the young talent that is apparently available in Mitchell, Trae, Ingram, apparently Garland etc.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[AirP.]

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

He would have 1 at minimum here in Bam, 2 if Jimmy is locked and we’re a top seed but I’d be willing to bet a heavy amount of money on Bam being an all star with Trae and having either easily the best season of his career or arguably the best season.

Luckily for us defense is Spos calling card and we have the best defender and most versatile defender in the world over the last 5 years best defender of his generation tbh. We should be looking for 3 and D veteran players to fill the roster out and help on defense for sure though.

Yes, Bam would have a great shot at being an all-star with Trae since Trae creates a lot of easy baskets for rim runners and Bam can do more than just rim run. The issue is the defense and since Bam isn't rim protector with size and shot blocks, the switching would have to happen even more than it currently is to keep trying to hide Trae but with how Spoelstra likes to hide bad defenders with the zone, that could help cover up Trae's weaknesses greatly.

[AirP.]

Interesting tidbit: Trae has never played with an all-star teammate

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

Knew that was coming. Not really that interesting. More of an exploration of the original tidbit.

Bet it wouldn't stop Bam Adebayo from impacting the game in a full capacity.

Defense is obviously a concern. At least Miami would be uniquely set up with the pre-eminent defensive superstar in the game. I'm here for the experiment.

The ultimate question is, can you win a championship with a defender as bad as Trae on the court being targeted? If you aren't positive that you can then what are we talking about? This is a question that only Spoelstra should answer in internal talks, nobody else's voice should matter, just the coach who will have to figure out how to optimize the player on both sides of the court.

[greg4012]

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

Knew that was coming. Not really that interesting. More of an exploration of the original tidbit.

Bet it wouldn't stop Bam Adebayo from impacting the game in a full capacity.

Defense is obviously a concern. At least Miami would be uniquely set up with the pre-eminent defensive superstar in the game. I'm here for the experiment.

The ultimate question is, can you win a championship with a defender as bad as Trae on the court being targeted? If you aren't positive that you can then what are we talking about? This is a question that only Spoelstra should answer in internal talks, nobody else's voice should matter, just the coach who will have to figure out how to optimize the player on both sides of the court.

I don't think there's any being positive about winning a championship ever.

I'm for the experiment if Spo is.

What we're talking about is exploring avenues to better the team, get younger, and change the makeup given the limited assets and limited options.

[greg4012]

Another interesting tidbit, when one player dominates the ball, others don't get all that many chances to do much with the ball to compile stats to be all-stars.

I think you can build a championship level offense around Trae but I don't know if you can build a good enough defense around him. To put this in context, 2 of the last 3 years when on the court the other team scored 4.9 or more points per 100, at that point, you have to basically make your offense 5 points or more better per 100 just to be a positive for your team.

Just looking back the last say 25 years only really AI and I.Thomas were in similar positions with their size and offense, for IT Brad Stevens tried hiding him which worked well but players are hunted more now and for AI, they threw defensive players around but AI did something else, he actively went after steals and ended up leading the league in steals and every steal is 1 empty possession for the other team dropping the other's team scoring potential. If Spoelstra could scheme to hide him while also getting Trae to activly look to steal the ball it "could" work but doesn't mean it would.

He would have 1 at minimum here in Bam, 2 if Jimmy is locked and we’re a top seed but I’d be willing to bet a heavy amount of money on Bam being an all star with Trae and having either easily the best season of his career or arguably the best season.

Luckily for us defense is Spos calling card and we have the best defender and most versatile defender in the world over the last 5 years best defender of his generation tbh. We should be looking for 3 and D veteran players to fill the roster out and help on defense for sure though.

Yes, Bam would have a great shot at being an all-star with Trae since Trae creates a lot of easy baskets for rim runners and Bam can do more than just rim run. The issue is the defense and since Bam isn't rim protector with size and shot blocks, the switching would have to happen even more than it currently is to keep trying to hide Trae but with how Spoelstra likes to hide bad defenders with the zone could help cover up Trae's weaknesses greatly.

Quite the opposite. The switching would only happen situationally to keep teams from hunting Trae on switches. In Miami's system, it's largely about choking out any driving lanes.

TBH I don't think Trae will be that much more of a liability on defense under Spo's system than Tyler has been. I think improving the defensive personnel around Trae makes it so that the space covered (and lane help) by all defenders will be something akin to 90% of floor space covered by 4 of the 5 players, and deploy Trae as an aggressive defender with a flexible safety net behind him (as you alluded to)

[greg4012]

I do think it's a challenging and fascinating roster construction to explore. Definitely creates a weak point. But, who else has a Bam Adebayo?