Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES)

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Has Jokic been overrated?

Yes
118
18%
No
547
82%
 
Total votes: 665

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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1101 » by Special_Puppy » Tue May 21, 2024 12:48 pm

SpreeS wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
his defence let him down too. Grabbing 15-20reb is outstanding, but player has more responsibilities at center position - defend the paint and rim not only rebound. DEN players helped to defend paint and left corners 3 wide open.

Jokic career PO +/- only +1.2 Apart his stats I dont see his dominance in PO if compare with RS +7.0 It shows that opponents know how to play against Jokic defence. If we look at the best players of this era

RS/PO/diff

Giannis +4.5/+4.3/-0.2
Curry +7.9/+7.6/-0.3
Lebron +6.6/+5.8/-0.8
Doncic +2.8/+1.8/-1.0
Durant +5.9/+4.2/-1.7
Embiid +8.6/+6.6/-2.0
Kawhi +9.9/+6.9/-3.0
Harden +5.8/+2.3/-3.5
Tatum +8.4/+4.1/-4.3


Jokic +7.0/+1.2/-5.8
Paul +6.8/+0.9/-5.9

ATG

Garnett +5.2/+2.5/-2.7
Duncan +9.7/+6.0/-3.7
Kobe +4.2/+3.3/-0.9
O'Neal +7.8/+4.9/-2.9
Nash +6.3/+2.1/-4.2
Wade +4.0/+3.3/-0.7
Dirk +5.6/-0.2/-5.8 (another big who couldn't defend)

Also Den defence 19-24 compared RS and PO is 3.75 worse in PO than in RS

RS 112.03drtg
PO 115.78drtg



EPM Prior takes into account defense. Using playoff on off to make your point is also very silly. You need 200+ games for plus-minus data to be useful


These numbers shows execlty what is happening on the floor. No need to use all these dificult formulas too understand that Jokic isnt good at defence. Do you think something change after 200+ games?

2019-2024 PO drtg

Adebayo in 111.25 out 114.47 dif +3.22
Embiid in 109.69 out 116.03 dif +6.34
Giannis in 104.88 out 114.01 dif +9.13
Davis in 110.54 out 111.95 dif +1.41
Green in 110.76 out 114.07 dif +3.31
Horford in 107.31 out 112.41 dif +5.10
Turner in 111.95 out 115.19 dif +4.0
Jackson in 112.19 out 112.36 dif +0.17
Robinson in 109.08 out 116.90 dif +7.82
Gordon in 114.98 out 116.75 dif +1.77

Ayton in 114.54 out 114.11 dif -0.45

Jokic in 115.78 out 113.13 dif -2.65
Towns in 115.49 out 103.60 dif -11.89
Sabonis SAC 115.44 out 104.41 dif -11.03
Sabonis IND 109.18 out 100.77 dif -8.41
Valanciunas MEM in 127.57 out 115.92 dif -11.65
Valanciunas NOP in 121.89 out 108.78 dif -13.11

21-24 Gordon n Jokic

Gordon w/o Jokic 108.60drtg
Gordon with Jokic 116.10drtg
Jokic w/o Gordon 117.35drtg

Only Gobert numbers are exception, other reflects whole reality and without 200+ games


I don't know why everyone understands that single season RAPM is noisy and mostly worthless, but then turn around and feel comfortable analyzing plus-minus numbers on a sample size smaller than a single season.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1102 » by Steelo Green » Tue May 21, 2024 12:50 pm

People saying Jokic's defense is what lost it when the Wolves scored 98 points. They lost because no one showed up other than Jokic in the second half. The third highest scorer with 7 points is absurd.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1103 » by UglyBugBall » Tue May 21, 2024 1:02 pm

Steelo Green wrote:People saying Jokic's defense is what lost it when the Wolves scored 98 points. They lost because no one showed up other than Jokic in the second half. The third highest scorer with 7 points is absurd.


They lost because he scored 34 in a pivotal game 7 on the road. That's a good playoff scoring game. That's not an ATG game 7 on the road kind of game.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1104 » by DimesandKnicks » Tue May 21, 2024 1:11 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:

EPM Prior takes into account defense. Using playoff on off to make your point is also very silly. You need 200+ games for plus-minus data to be useful


These numbers shows execlty what is happening on the floor. No need to use all these dificult formulas too understand that Jokic isnt good at defence. Do you think something change after 200+ games?

2019-2024 PO drtg

Adebayo in 111.25 out 114.47 dif +3.22
Embiid in 109.69 out 116.03 dif +6.34
Giannis in 104.88 out 114.01 dif +9.13
Davis in 110.54 out 111.95 dif +1.41
Green in 110.76 out 114.07 dif +3.31
Horford in 107.31 out 112.41 dif +5.10
Turner in 111.95 out 115.19 dif +4.0
Jackson in 112.19 out 112.36 dif +0.17
Robinson in 109.08 out 116.90 dif +7.82
Gordon in 114.98 out 116.75 dif +1.77

Ayton in 114.54 out 114.11 dif -0.45

Jokic in 115.78 out 113.13 dif -2.65
Towns in 115.49 out 103.60 dif -11.89
Sabonis SAC 115.44 out 104.41 dif -11.03
Sabonis IND 109.18 out 100.77 dif -8.41
Valanciunas MEM in 127.57 out 115.92 dif -11.65
Valanciunas NOP in 121.89 out 108.78 dif -13.11

21-24 Gordon n Jokic

Gordon w/o Jokic 108.60drtg
Gordon with Jokic 116.10drtg
Jokic w/o Gordon 117.35drtg

Only Gobert numbers are exception, other reflects whole reality and without 200+ games


I don't know why everyone understands that single season RAPM is noisy and mostly worthless, but then turn around and feel comfortable analyzing plus-minus numbers on a sample size smaller than a single season.


Career DRAPM is ****
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1105 » by SpreeS » Tue May 21, 2024 1:16 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:

EPM Prior takes into account defense. Using playoff on off to make your point is also very silly. You need 200+ games for plus-minus data to be useful


These numbers shows execlty what is happening on the floor. No need to use all these dificult formulas too understand that Jokic isnt good at defence. Do you think something change after 200+ games?

2019-2024 PO drtg

Adebayo in 111.25 out 114.47 dif +3.22
Embiid in 109.69 out 116.03 dif +6.34
Giannis in 104.88 out 114.01 dif +9.13
Davis in 110.54 out 111.95 dif +1.41
Green in 110.76 out 114.07 dif +3.31
Horford in 107.31 out 112.41 dif +5.10
Turner in 111.95 out 115.19 dif +4.0
Jackson in 112.19 out 112.36 dif +0.17
Robinson in 109.08 out 116.90 dif +7.82
Gordon in 114.98 out 116.75 dif +1.77

Ayton in 114.54 out 114.11 dif -0.45

Jokic in 115.78 out 113.13 dif -2.65
Towns in 115.49 out 103.60 dif -11.89
Sabonis SAC 115.44 out 104.41 dif -11.03
Sabonis IND 109.18 out 100.77 dif -8.41
Valanciunas MEM in 127.57 out 115.92 dif -11.65
Valanciunas NOP in 121.89 out 108.78 dif -13.11

21-24 Gordon n Jokic

Gordon w/o Jokic 108.60drtg
Gordon with Jokic 116.10drtg
Jokic w/o Gordon 117.35drtg

Only Gobert numbers are exception, other reflects whole reality and without 200+ games


I don't know why everyone understands that single season RAPM is noisy and mostly worthless, but then turn around and feel comfortable analyzing plus-minus numbers on a sample size smaller than a single season.


80 games of RS it's like playing at backyard. No one cares about defence and half of games are against 11-15 rotation players or two ways contracts. 80 games of PS have more value than last 5 years RS games combined.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1106 » by bb22 » Tue May 21, 2024 1:22 pm

I wonder if the series would have been different if Denver had a playable athletic 5 to help protect the paint. I know they started winning at a higher level when they went with AG at PF and Jokic as the only true big, but they could have used that option. DJ clearly not an option anymore
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1107 » by Special_Puppy » Tue May 21, 2024 1:22 pm

SpreeS wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
These numbers shows execlty what is happening on the floor. No need to use all these dificult formulas too understand that Jokic isnt good at defence. Do you think something change after 200+ games?

2019-2024 PO drtg

Adebayo in 111.25 out 114.47 dif +3.22
Embiid in 109.69 out 116.03 dif +6.34
Giannis in 104.88 out 114.01 dif +9.13
Davis in 110.54 out 111.95 dif +1.41
Green in 110.76 out 114.07 dif +3.31
Horford in 107.31 out 112.41 dif +5.10
Turner in 111.95 out 115.19 dif +4.0
Jackson in 112.19 out 112.36 dif +0.17
Robinson in 109.08 out 116.90 dif +7.82
Gordon in 114.98 out 116.75 dif +1.77

Ayton in 114.54 out 114.11 dif -0.45

Jokic in 115.78 out 113.13 dif -2.65
Towns in 115.49 out 103.60 dif -11.89
Sabonis SAC 115.44 out 104.41 dif -11.03
Sabonis IND 109.18 out 100.77 dif -8.41
Valanciunas MEM in 127.57 out 115.92 dif -11.65
Valanciunas NOP in 121.89 out 108.78 dif -13.11

21-24 Gordon n Jokic

Gordon w/o Jokic 108.60drtg
Gordon with Jokic 116.10drtg
Jokic w/o Gordon 117.35drtg

Only Gobert numbers are exception, other reflects whole reality and without 200+ games


I don't know why everyone understands that single season RAPM is noisy and mostly worthless, but then turn around and feel comfortable analyzing plus-minus numbers on a sample size smaller than a single season.


80 games of RS it's like playing at backyard. No one cares about defence and half of games are against 11-15 rotation players or two ways contracts. 80 games of PS have more value than last 5 years RS games combined.


Not when you are doing plus-minus analysis. You really need 200+ games to sift through the noise. Its just inherently how the stat works.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1108 » by BelgradeNugget » Tue May 21, 2024 1:27 pm

Steelo Green wrote:People saying Jokic's defense is what lost it when the Wolves scored 98 points. They lost because no one showed up other than Jokic in the second half. The third highest scorer with 7 points is absurd.

They blame him for offensive rebound Naz got after Murray forgot to box-out with 3 minutes left and score 87:82, and then KCP forgetting to box-out KAT with 1 minute left and Denver down -5.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1109 » by SpreeS » Tue May 21, 2024 1:28 pm

Steelo Green wrote:People saying Jokic's defense is what lost it when the Wolves scored 98 points. They lost because no one showed up other than Jokic in the second half. The third highest scorer with 7 points is absurd.


Teams scored on average 100.6 pts in game 7th in last 15 PO series (2020-2024). This number is with couple blowouts where defences weren't important in second halfs. So 98 isnt good defence its more avarage and defences mostly wins game 7
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1110 » by PhilBlackson » Tue May 21, 2024 1:31 pm

No one is changing their votes lol this is still a dumb thread and amazing that it’s even gone on this long.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1111 » by SpreeS » Tue May 21, 2024 1:36 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
I don't know why everyone understands that single season RAPM is noisy and mostly worthless, but then turn around and feel comfortable analyzing plus-minus numbers on a sample size smaller than a single season.


80 games of RS it's like playing at backyard. No one cares about defence and half of games are against 11-15 rotation players or two ways contracts. 80 games of PS have more value than last 5 years RS games combined.


Not when you are doing plus-minus analysis. You really need 200+ games to sift through the noise. Its just inherently how the stat works.


I dont see here any noise. Good/Elite defensive bigs have positive diff drtg, bad defensive bigs negative. If you think that Jokic is good at defence and numbers will change after 200 PO games - good luck with that.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1112 » by BelgradeNugget » Tue May 21, 2024 1:36 pm

In game 7 Jokic had 38% of Nuggets points, 39% of Nuggets assists, 43% of Nuggets rebounds. Shoot 46%, rest of team 38%. Choker
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1113 » by SpreeS » Tue May 21, 2024 1:48 pm

BelgradeNugget wrote:
Steelo Green wrote:People saying Jokic's defense is what lost it when the Wolves scored 98 points. They lost because no one showed up other than Jokic in the second half. The third highest scorer with 7 points is absurd.

They blame him for offensive rebound Naz got after Murray forgot to box-out with 3 minutes left and score 87:82, and then KCP forgetting to box-out KAT with 1 minute left and Denver down -5.


This is the point!!! Center is the last stand man and the most important player on defence. He is a player who must clean up all mess what smaller players leave on the table. This is one thing and no one blame Jokic for these situations, its only extra and nice to have.

There was plenty of moments where Jokic missed smaller players on perimeter and other players come to help protect rim leaving open corners.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1114 » by TinmanZBoy » Tue May 21, 2024 2:31 pm

Joker is not overrated…. He is an all time great and still going… but to say he is in the level of Jordan and LeBron in terms of being historically great, that is a stretch so far, and you just have to see it in 10 years, he may get there or may not get there…
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1115 » by BelgradeNugget » Tue May 21, 2024 2:36 pm

SpreeS wrote:
BelgradeNugget wrote:
Steelo Green wrote:People saying Jokic's defense is what lost it when the Wolves scored 98 points. They lost because no one showed up other than Jokic in the second half. The third highest scorer with 7 points is absurd.

They blame him for offensive rebound Naz got after Murray forgot to box-out with 3 minutes left and score 87:82, and then KCP forgetting to box-out KAT with 1 minute left and Denver down -5.


This is the point!!! Center is the last stand man and the most important player on defence. He is a player who must clean up all mess what smaller players leave on the table. This is one thing and no one blame Jokic for these situations, its only extra and nice to have.

There was plenty of moments where Jokic missed smaller players on perimeter and other players come to help protect rim leaving open corners.

It is OK, but on one side of the ball with 6 minutes left and score 83:78 after MPJ missed wide open 3, Jokic got O rebound between Naz, Ant and McDaniels. He was blocked on putback. All 3 of them jumped on him. No one stud and think - Gobert you have to come to guard him your job is to clear the mess. On the other side Jokic had to clear the mess and still box-out Gobert.

Of course they were helping him on O and D, as he was helping them. He was usually second player traping Ant which led to him having bad shooting night. Other Nuggets covered for him behind before he recovered.

But at the end Wolves outhusled Nuggets and I don't think it can be put on Jokic to blame.

One more stat. Here is a distance covered for all players in that game. You know who lead all players. The one who had to box-out on one side, and bang in the post on other to create scoring opportunities. Oh and grabed 55% of Nuggets O rebounds and 40% of D rebunds.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/speed-distance?Conference=West&DateFrom=05/19/2024&DateTo=05/19/2024&dir=D&sort=DIST_FEET
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1116 » by Johnny Firpo » Tue May 21, 2024 2:41 pm

TinmanZBoy wrote:Joker is not overrated…. He is an all time great and still going… but to say he is in the level of Jordan and LeBron in terms of being historically great, that is a stretch so far, and you just have to see it in 10 years, he may get there or may not get there…


I still don't think many people said that though. Most of those who said something similar, were only talking about his offense, not overall impact.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1117 » by Infinite Llamas » Tue May 21, 2024 2:52 pm

bb22 wrote:I wonder if the series would have been different if Denver had a playable athletic 5 to help protect the paint. I know they started winning at a higher level when they went with AG at PF and Jokic as the only true big, but they could have used that option. DJ clearly not an option anymore


Jokic with Myles Turner would be pretty insane.
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1118 » by mcmurphy » Tue May 21, 2024 3:02 pm

PhilBlackson wrote:No one is changing their votes lol this is still a dumb thread and amazing that it’s even gone on this long.


:lol:
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated 

Post#1119 » by DimesandKnicks » Sun May 26, 2024 5:23 pm

lessthanjake wrote:You might want to watch what happened in last year’s playoffs, where Embiid was mercilessly hunted. It happens a lot. If you can’t see that, then that’s on you. And by the way, it works. Do you think Jokic would have taken so many threes in Game 7 if the Timberwolves left him alone more when they were on offense? Of course not. They purposely wore him down.


Were they just running simply pick and roll action or actually trying to isolate Embiid one on one for a mismatch?

You just have a hopelessly simplistic view of defense. If Jokic has a positive defensive impact (which he demonstrably does), then yes, his defensive positives do “make up for” his defensive negatives.

And you have a bias version of defense to lift Jokic up. What is he good at that makes him a positive for his team defense. Are we really giving participation trophy’s for being where your suppose to be on defense? He can’t guard in space, defend the post or protect the rim. But he can swipe the ball and rebound. And if he actually defended the rim he’d be a worse rebounder. It’s easy to rebound when you on your feet when the shot goes up.

Umm, defenses scheme to protect everyone’s negatives. There’s always mismatches of some sort on the floor, even if you created a roster of the best defenders in NBA history. And you always scheme to protect your team against those. These are silly criticisms, that sound like things we’d hear from people babbling on ESPN.


When Michael Porter Jr., a bad defender, is defending Big Kat so your 6”11 280 pound C can guard Jaden McDaniels, your team is scheming for your defensive deficiencies. If Jokic couldn’t play drop coverage they had to scheme to keep him on the floor last series.

I promise you that LeBron would say the same thing. This isn’t some random theory I’ve come up with. It’s just conventional wisdom. It’s just bizarre to try to fight this concept. And this is even more important in “the final minutes,” because those are the times where the guy is most likely to become fatigued and when reducing the guy’s offensive potential is most important.


You’re wrong
James and Reddick had an entire episode on their podcast about the hardest actions to guard and almost the entire podcast was about pick and roll. James talked about how Lie loved hunting for the weakest defender, how James himself would pick on the worst defender. How the action created a two on one action or a mismatch. They talked about how Lebron would pick on Reddick. He wasn’t picking on Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. He never once mentioned that he does it to wear down the other teams best offensive player. This argument is complete conjecture on your part.

Who were the talented defenders on this team, you ask? Well, how about essentially all the guys on the court making the team a historically elite defense? If you play historically elite defense, then you are a talented defender, unless you’re just defining “talent” so narrowly that it becomes a meaningless concept (which I think is what you’re doing—just like you define “defense” so narrowly as to make it not include Jokic’s strengths).


No. Just no. A team buying into a defensive scheme doesn’t make the individual players talented. Again, a team of solid defenders can have a great defense with great coaching. This was a coaching staff that included Mike Malone by the way. Pierce’s Celtics that year had more talented defensive players. Talent actually translates from team to team.

If you want to call them role players instead, then that’s fine. Scrubs and role players are two very different things. These were role players who played their role quite well. Of course, I still would say LeBron did not “carry” them, since, as I’ve pointed out, they got to the Finals on the back of their greatness on a side of the ball that LeBron was just a cog in rather than the driving force (while they did badly in the playoffs on the side of the ball LeBron was the driving force behind). That said, do I think they’d have made the Finals without LeBron? No. So, if you define being a but-for cause of a team’s advancement as “carrying” the team, then sure. But essentially every finalist in NBA history wouldn’t have made the Finals without their biggest star, so that’s just defining “carry” in a meaninglessly broad way.


He bought a team that lacked talent to the NBA finals. One of if not the worst team, talent wise, to make it to the finals in modern NBA history. If you want to reduce this to another semantic argument and call the roll players that’s fine. I think those guys were scrubs. Bad. Basura.

As for Paul Pierce, I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They probably could’ve played essentially just as good of defense with Pierce. Meanwhile, there’s little reason to believe Paul Pierce was an inferior offensive player that year. Indeed, while the Celtics had an awful offense overall, the Celtics with Pierce on the floor that season scored more efficiently than the Cavaliers with LeBron on the floor! Which is perhaps why Paul Pierce that year had a better ORAPM than LeBron, similar O-EPM, etc. And Pierce wouldn’t even have had to make their offense good to make the Finals, since those Cavs made the Finals with a bad defense as it was. And they did so fairly easily, so they could’ve made the Finals with a decently worse defense. The only real question IMO is just if Pierce would’ve integrated as well into their defense, but of course we know he integrated very well into an all-time offense the next year, so I think he would’ve. But maybe carrying the load on offense would’ve limited him defensively. I tend to think those Cavs could’ve made the Finals with Paul Pierce though. And that really shouldn’t seem ridiculous to you, because the 2007 Cavs defense was simply that good, combined with the East being that weak.


The 07-08 Celtics were better and it took them 7 games to beat the Cavs. He also played on a team with a better defensive rating in 02 than Lebron’s 07 Cavs but lost in the conference finals to the nets. C’mon man!
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Re: Jokic is not the best in the world, and has been heavily overrated (NOW YOU CAN CHANGE VOTES) 

Post#1120 » by GeorgeSears » Sun May 26, 2024 5:58 pm

Who has put up better playoff numbers in their careers than Jokic has in the last 20 years other than LeBron?

You could argue that Embiid has played as well, or perhaps even better, in the regular season. You could make the case for Giannis as well.

But in terms of playoffs? There hasn't been a bigger playoff riser than Jokic in the last 20 years other than LeBron. Especially with an 80-game sample size.

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