2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[tsherkin]

It's not a new point, but it is pretty funny that we are talking about living with a team hitting 110-115 ORTG. I remember just over a decade ago, Bastion was (rightly) convinced that Harden was a superstar in the making in 2011/2012 for hitting those marks and how Nash-like of an effect he had on the Thunder's offense.

115 used to be around "the greatest offense in league history" for a while. Boston's franchise best before 2023 was 1988's 115.4. LA's franchise best before this season was 1987's 115.6. Chicago's franchise best is still 1992's 115.2.

It's wild what's happened.

[ardee]

It's not a new point, but it is pretty funny that we are talking about living with a team hitting 110-115 ORTG. I remember just over a decade ago, Bastion was (rightly) convinced that Harden was a superstar in the making in 2011/2012 for hitting those marks and how Nash-like of an effect he had on the Thunder's offense.

115 used to be around "the greatest offense in league history" for a while. Boston's franchise best before 2023 was 1988's 115.4. LA's franchise best before this season was 1987's 115.6. Chicago's franchise best is still 1992's 115.2.

It's wild what's happened.

2021 was the turning point.

The Curry/Durant Warriors were typically in the 115-116 range, which is what you'd expect at the time from a historically talented team.

Then suddenly in 2020 you had the Luka Mavs get to 116.7. Hmm, strange, he's very talented but how is that suddenly the GOAT offense?

Then BOOM in 2021 you have SEVEN teams above 117.

And now the league average is 115.3, which as you said used to be GOAT caliber.

One of the reasons I still maintain the league peaked for me from 2008-16, particularly 2014-16, can't beat the balance of offense and defense we had then.

[tsherkin]

2021 was the turning point.

The Curry/Durant Warriors were typically in the 115-116 range, which is what you'd expect at the time from a historically talented team.

Then suddenly in 2020 you had the Luka Mavs get to 116.7. Hmm, strange, he's very talented but how is that suddenly the GOAT offense?

Then BOOM in 2021 you have SEVEN teams above 117.

And now the league average is 115.3, which as you said used to be GOAT caliber.

One of the reasons I still maintain the league peaked for me from 2008-16, particularly 2014-16, can't beat the balance of offense and defense we had then.

Mmm, teams were trending up. The Rockets were a 114.7 team in 2017 and there were 11 teams at 110+ that year. As teams started to leverage the three more and increased the complexity and efficacy of their team offenses, naturally we saw offensive efficacy rise. We're waiting for the next defensive revolution, like we saw from the 08 Celtics and those late 2000s/early 2010s Bulls under Thibs. And some of what Pops did for a while (though of course he had the personnel to do it, heh).

What Minny's doing has been pretty impressive. Even in the G1 loss, they were pretty successful, Luka and Kyrie notwithstanding.

We'll see. Ebb and flow, always the cycle.

[Dr Positivity]

May be different if they change the the drop strategy, but overall Gobert got Harden'd in that game. Having Reid as 6th man could come up big in this series if they ride him and Towns. The other adjustment would be not having Edwards guard Kyrie since he got too tired. Edwards looks like young Kobe or MJ during the shrug game every time he takes a 3 however I'm not ready to crown the rest of his offensive game yet.

[TheGOATRises007]

ANT is probably a top 5 player in the league when he's completely on(just because of his sheer athleticism combined with the rest of his game), but he's getting crowned a bit too early for me.

I may be off, but I doubt he plays better against the Mavs than SGA did. He's still got room to grow, but he's not the finished article yet.

Talks of him being the face of the league are still off the mark.

And if he drops 30+ next game while playing great defense, I'll take the L.

[Special_Puppy]

ANT is probably a top 5 player in the league when he's completely on(just because of his sheer athleticism combined with the rest of his game), but he's getting crowned a bit too early for me.

I may be off, but I doubt he plays better against the Mavs than SGA did. He's still got room to grow, but he's not the finished article yet.

Talks of him being the face of the league are still off the mark.

And if he drops 30+ next game while playing great defense, I'll take the L.

Ant was a fringe All-NBA player in the regular season and played like a BITW candidate in his very small post-season sample largely due to him shooting and making midrange and 3 point shots at a way higher clip than he did in the regular season. Is Ant just the biggest playoff riser in NBA history or is it just hot shooting and his regular season value is closer to what you'd expect in the post-season going forward

[bigboi]

I would be stunned if the Celtics win the title

They’re winnning in 5 games

Vs the Pacers? I agree.

Vs the Wolves in all likelihood? There is no shot the Celtics are beating that team in 5 games.

They can beat any of these teams in 4-5 tbh. This team is really boring to watch which makes folks underestimate

[bigboi]

This is easily the most boring Celtics team.

[falcolombardi]

Is only 1 game so far but the crowning some people made for jokic as the best offensive player by far is gonna look very questionable if dallas outperforms them

Not really. I mean, the offensive context around Jokic versus around Luka is totally different. Kyrie alone changes that dynamic, let alone the function of the other roleplayers. Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.

But he only managed 3 good offensive games against the wolves (and in 1 of those games he was shut down the first half and cooked his stats only after his co star brought them up 23)

That's... not really accurate, though. He didn't have a ton of ultra-dominant scoring games, but he had a wide variety of good offensive games. He really only had one bad scoring night.

I mean, Dallas missed plenty of open corner 3's too. It's not like they didn't get good looks there either. Was it Ant playing passive or was it Dallas saying you're not going to get into the paint? I'd argue it's at least partially the latter, and that it's something they can duplicate.

There were tons of possessions where very visibly looked off dribble drive attempts he could have made. A lot of those turned into 3s or passes. We'll have to see Game 2 in order to get a better idea, of course, but Dallas' D wasn't denying him all night, and he wasn't really attacking the PnR with intent to get into the lane at all, either. He was visibly committed to volume 3pt shooting the whole night, not even probing first a lot of the time, wherefore the commentary about his passive play.

My point is a lot more about jokic pkaymaking than his scoring

Not because he was not making great or correct passing choices, or that his passing out of doubles didnt put denver in advantage against the now scrapping to recover minny defense

It did, but minny was able to shut down the small advantages generated by jokic being doubled quickly and jokic not being a ball handler or using a face up dribble game limited his ability to generate direct open shots out of attacking inside as "traditional" offense big stars (aka perimeter players) can do

This is not even me questioning jokic being amazing as much as wondering if there is a ultimate frontier of how much damage a non driving player can generate against optimized defense

[Special_Puppy]

Is only 1 game so far but the crowning some people made for jokic as the best offensive player by far is gonna look very questionable if dallas outperforms them

Not really. I mean, the offensive context around Jokic versus around Luka is totally different. Kyrie alone changes that dynamic, let alone the function of the other roleplayers. Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.

But he only managed 3 good offensive games against the wolves (and in 1 of those games he was shut down the first half and cooked his stats only after his co star brought them up 23)

That's... not really accurate, though. He didn't have a ton of ultra-dominant scoring games, but he had a wide variety of good offensive games. He really only had one bad scoring night.

I mean, Dallas missed plenty of open corner 3's too. It's not like they didn't get good looks there either. Was it Ant playing passive or was it Dallas saying you're not going to get into the paint? I'd argue it's at least partially the latter, and that it's something they can duplicate.

There were tons of possessions where very visibly looked off dribble drive attempts he could have made. A lot of those turned into 3s or passes. We'll have to see Game 2 in order to get a better idea, of course, but Dallas' D wasn't denying him all night, and he wasn't really attacking the PnR with intent to get into the lane at all, either. He was visibly committed to volume 3pt shooting the whole night, not even probing first a lot of the time, wherefore the commentary about his passive play.

My point is a lot more about jokic pkaymaking than his scoring

Not because he was not making great or correct passing choices, or that his passing out of doubles didnt put denver in advantage against the now scrapping to recover minny defense

It did, but minny was able to shut down the small advantages generated by jokic being doubled quickly and jokic not being a ball handler or using a face up dribble game limited his ability to generate direct open shots out of attacking inside as "traditional" offense big stars (aka perimeter players) can do

This is not even me questioning jokic being amazing as much as wondering if there is a ultimate frontier of how much damage a non driving player can generate against optimized defense

I would still take Jokic over Luka in terms of offense, but I think Jokic is a step down from offensive GOATs like Curry

[tsherkin]

Is only 1 game so far but the crowning some people made for jokic as the best offensive player by far is gonna look very questionable if dallas outperforms them

Not really. I mean, the offensive context around Jokic versus around Luka is totally different. Kyrie alone changes that dynamic, let alone the function of the other roleplayers. Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.

But he only managed 3 good offensive games against the wolves (and in 1 of those games he was shut down the first half and cooked his stats only after his co star brought them up 23)

That's... not really accurate, though. He didn't have a ton of ultra-dominant scoring games, but he had a wide variety of good offensive games. He really only had one bad scoring night.

I mean, Dallas missed plenty of open corner 3's too. It's not like they didn't get good looks there either. Was it Ant playing passive or was it Dallas saying you're not going to get into the paint? I'd argue it's at least partially the latter, and that it's something they can duplicate.

There were tons of possessions where very visibly looked off dribble drive attempts he could have made. A lot of those turned into 3s or passes. We'll have to see Game 2 in order to get a better idea, of course, but Dallas' D wasn't denying him all night, and he wasn't really attacking the PnR with intent to get into the lane at all, either. He was visibly committed to volume 3pt shooting the whole night, not even probing first a lot of the time, wherefore the commentary about his passive play.

My point is a lot more about jokic pkaymaking than his scoring

Not because he was not making great or correct passing choices, or that his passing out of doubles didnt put denver in advantage against the now scrapping to recover minny defense

It did, but minny was able to shut down the small advantages generated by jokic being doubled quickly and jokic not being a ball handler or using a face up dribble game limited his ability to generate direct open shots out of attacking inside as "traditional" offense big stars (aka perimeter players) can do

This is not even me questioning jokic being amazing as much as wondering if there is a ultimate frontier of how much damage a non driving player can generate against optimized defense

I think that effect is very much smaller when his guys are hitting their shots, to be honest.

[migya]

Not really. I mean, the offensive context around Jokic versus around Luka is totally different. Kyrie alone changes that dynamic, let alone the function of the other roleplayers. Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.



That's... not really accurate, though. He didn't have a ton of ultra-dominant scoring games, but he had a wide variety of good offensive games. He really only had one bad scoring night.



There were tons of possessions where very visibly looked off dribble drive attempts he could have made. A lot of those turned into 3s or passes. We'll have to see Game 2 in order to get a better idea, of course, but Dallas' D wasn't denying him all night, and he wasn't really attacking the PnR with intent to get into the lane at all, either. He was visibly committed to volume 3pt shooting the whole night, not even probing first a lot of the time, wherefore the commentary about his passive play.

My point is a lot more about jokic pkaymaking than his scoring

Not because he was not making great or correct passing choices, or that his passing out of doubles didnt put denver in advantage against the now scrapping to recover minny defense

It did, but minny was able to shut down the small advantages generated by jokic being doubled quickly and jokic not being a ball handler or using a face up dribble game limited his ability to generate direct open shots out of attacking inside as "traditional" offense big stars (aka perimeter players) can do

This is not even me questioning jokic being amazing as much as wondering if there is a ultimate frontier of how much damage a non driving player can generate against optimized defense

I would still take Jokic over Luka in terms of offense, but I think Jokic is a step down from offensive GOATs like Curry

Curry has been great the last few years but I don't see how he is so great to that level. He isn't unstoppable and passes well but nothing like Jokic.

[falcolombardi]

Not really. I mean, the offensive context around Jokic versus around Luka is totally different. Kyrie alone changes that dynamic, let alone the function of the other roleplayers. Dallas isn't watching their MPJ equivalent crap the bed entirely and force everything onto their solo star. That's what happened in Denver, though.



That's... not really accurate, though. He didn't have a ton of ultra-dominant scoring games, but he had a wide variety of good offensive games. He really only had one bad scoring night.



There were tons of possessions where very visibly looked off dribble drive attempts he could have made. A lot of those turned into 3s or passes. We'll have to see Game 2 in order to get a better idea, of course, but Dallas' D wasn't denying him all night, and he wasn't really attacking the PnR with intent to get into the lane at all, either. He was visibly committed to volume 3pt shooting the whole night, not even probing first a lot of the time, wherefore the commentary about his passive play.

My point is a lot more about jokic pkaymaking than his scoring

Not because he was not making great or correct passing choices, or that his passing out of doubles didnt put denver in advantage against the now scrapping to recover minny defense

It did, but minny was able to shut down the small advantages generated by jokic being doubled quickly and jokic not being a ball handler or using a face up dribble game limited his ability to generate direct open shots out of attacking inside as "traditional" offense big stars (aka perimeter players) can do

This is not even me questioning jokic being amazing as much as wondering if there is a ultimate frontier of how much damage a non driving player can generate against optimized defense

I think that effect is very much smaller when his guys are hitting their shots, to be honest.

I mean, yeah everythinghs looks good when shots fall, but shot efficiency is not some compketely random outcome

Open catch and shot is a higher % shot that a tightly contested one or a shot after avoiding closeouts which were the shots jokic was generating out of being doubled

[bigboi]

Yall really sat here and told me that this Minny team was the goat defensive team and this is the best three man rotation of big man just to prop up Jokic. You can tell who watches games in this forum lmao. Yall look ridiculous now

[jalengreen]

Ant effectively had b2b possessions throwing the ball away there at the end. Sigh

[Statlanta]

Doncic and his 2007 Cavaliers take a 2-0 series lead

[OhayoKD]

Kyrie reverting to his flat earth self, but Luka Lebron'd them through

[AEnigma]

Doncic and his 2007 Cavaliers take a 2-0 series lead

*2017

[Texas Chuck]

So about Minny/Denver being the real Finals.... we still on that?

[AEnigma]

Both Kyrie and Luka have developed a nice connection with Lively. That aspect at least reminds me a bit of the 2018 Rockets, although the overall roster balance is notably different otherwise.

Tough spot for the Wolves, but they have shown themselves to be road warriors, and Dallas as an environment takes much less adjustment than Denver.

Gobert is going to be the public scapegoat again, even though there are only a couple of bigs (Draymond, Bam) a coach would even dare try bringing out to guard Luka. And speaks to the benefit of having a player like Luka who can leave the league’s best defence baffled and desperate for any way to limit his options.