An early summer 2024 thread

[madmaxmedia]

If Ballmer decides to tear it all down, with little chance of getting a needle-mover in the draft because of traded picks and pick swaps, he's looking at 2-4 years of misery without even the rewards of tanking. This is a .500ish team or worse with only a gimpy Kawhi and a bunch of kids. But it might flirt with 45-50 wins even if it's not a realistic contender. Ballmer is screwed either way, so why not win some games and have some fun for the next 3 years while he's waiting out the draft dearth and the current sal cap mess?

It might actually be more fun than the "Title or Else" dynamic that's pervaded the 213 era. That can be real poison for an org, that no success can be enjoyed until winning the last game of the Finals. That's a misery too. Basketball's a game, and games are supposed to be fun.

Yeah, I think what we're all starting to see is more of a middle path, where A.) we're not absolutely horrible, but B.) we're making decisions from here on out with at least an eye towards the future. It's gonna be somewhat tricky to navigate and certain things are out of our control (whether we can get PG to sign a 3-year deal), but it's not all-or-nothing like it has been the last two years. Losing realistic hope at a title is what finally freed us from that. Ballmer is not necessarily a brilliant mind but he's not stupid by any stretch either.

Tearing down, even when you control all your picks does not guarantee success.
We are not built to win it all, that should be obvious to even the casual fan. BUT we are built to be competitive enough that with a lot of luck, we can make a run to the finals. We'd need a solid player to fall on our laps, have other west teams deal with major injuries, and have a coach who can establish a solid defensive formula that could be effective even with older and unathletic players.
At this point I fully expect Ballmer and the FO to ride this team out until we are a 35 win team.

We are gonna max out Podcast Paul again in 4 years...

[donemilio21]

We are gonna max out Podcast Paul again in 4 years...

I don't think we are. If we were, he would have signed already. We are probably awaiting the finalization of media rights deals and announcement of new salary cap figures before making a move. his PO is for $48M with a 6/29 deadline to pick up. is anyone offering him more than $48M a year ? I think he stays for a contract extension that's less than his last one.

[madmaxmedia]

We are gonna max out Podcast Paul again in 4 years...

I don't think we are. If we were, he would have signed already. We are probably awaiting the finalization of media rights deals and announcement of new salary cap figures before making a move. his PO is for $48M with a 6/29 deadline to pick up. is anyone offering him more than $48M a year ? I think he stays for a contract extension that's less than his last one.

Oh yeah- I was joking that in another 4 years we are gonna max him out AGAIN...

I don't want him on a 4-year deal, on a 3-year I would welcome him back with open arms and see how it goes (and very possibly trading him later in the year.)

[Clemenza]

If the Mavs roll through the Wolves, PG will need an apology. No he's not a max player but he was double teamed like crazy all throughout the series. His one true stinker was game 5 if you ask me, but nobody is asking.

[TrueLAfan]

One of the "secrets" I can see for resigning players this year and next is to *not* sign them to deals attached to the salary cap and *not* give them max raises. The team salary cap will go up a max of 10% per year and almost certainly will do just that with the new media contract. The difference between a player signed to a max (35% of cap) deal at the $141 million cap and a "frozen" or fixed raise salary that starts near the same will have a big impact 3-4 years down the road.

Four year max deal (with 8% raises)
Year 1: $49.35 million
Year 2: $53.62 million
Year 3: $57.91 million
Year 4: $62.54 million

Four year deal starting at 32% with $2.5 million raises in years 1-3:
Year 1: $45.12 million
Year 2: $47.62 million
Year 3: $50.12 million
Year 4: $50.12 million

By year three, there’s an extra $7.5 million plus available. The difference is even more marked as a percentage of the salary cap—which, like I said, is likely to start going up 10% a year (for a few years, at least) when the new media contract kicks in. Here are the percentages for those salaries:

Four year max deal (with 8% raises)
Year 1: 35% of cap
Year 2: 34.57% of cap
Year 3: 33.95% of cap
Year 4: 33.32% of cap

Four year deal starting at 32% with $2.5 million raises in years 1-3
Year 1: 32% of cap
Year 2: 30.7% of cap
Year 3: 29.38% of cap
Year 4: 26.71% of cap

Are the players leaving more on the table if they sign fixed or low(er) raise deals? Yes. But the argument for them is two fold. First—it’s money, but it’s not deal breaker money for some, or hopefully a lot, of players. Assume that there’s a player option in year 4 on the two contracts I broke down, so 3 years are guaranteed. $161 million vs. $143 million is about a 10% pay cut. It’s obviously a lot to normal people … but you’re still making 90% of what you could have made. And, second, that extra money gets compounded for the team by the rise in the team salary cap. It’s like an employer match. You contribute part of your salary, and the league raises the team salary cap *more* than any raise. Your proportion of the salary cap drops more and faster as a result—which allows the team to have better get support for you. A bigger cut helps your team more.

I’m not the first one to spot this:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2023/09/27/record-setting-nba-contracts-could-create-a-market-inefficiency/?sh=3490651a431f

With the new media deal, I think there’s going to be (a lot) more big but not max deals that have lower pay raises. And I’d be pitching that to Paul George, big time. I think other teams will be doing the same. We’ll get a much clearer sense of which players are in it for the money and which ones want to help a team build a contender.

[donemilio21]

the way Kyrie is playing right now. Man I wish we had gotten him, instead of Harden. I think we gave up twice as much assets to get Harden to average half of the points Kyrie is putting up.

[KL2]

If the Mavs roll through the Wolves, PG will need an apology. No he's not a max player but he was double teamed like crazy all throughout the series. His one true stinker was game 5 if you ask me, but nobody is asking.

He talks way too much. He sets up so much of the hate thrown his way because of it. Wants to be number 2 or 3 on the team but paid like number 1.

A lot of guys needed to step up but especially him. And he averaged the least points since 2013.

I hated the PJ Washington pose but at least he backed it up. Unlike PG with his knockoff version.

Maybe I’m bitter and unrealistic but I’m not giving him a pass or anyone else either.

[madmaxmedia]

the way Kyrie is playing right now. Man I wish we had gotten him, instead of Harden. I think we gave up twice as much assets to get Harden to average half of the points Kyrie is putting up.

Nobody here wanted him, but it was always for non-basketball reasons. The COVID stuff didn’t bother me that much, but his insistence on the antisemitic Twitter stuff was a red flag for me.

Regardless, yeah he is actually a star in his prime, unlike our guys. He has not caused any problems off the court and is balling right now, and the Mavs did not give up much to get him and were able to balance their roster with their mid season trades.

[nickhx2]

not interested in rooting for trashcan people so nothing of value was lost

[madmaxmedia]

Do you guys know when PG could extend if he exercises his PO as part of a sign-and-trade?

I feel like one interesting possibility is the Knicks. Brunson seems to be their leader on the court, and I think PG could actually fit there well. The other option is re-signing PG now, and trading him there later in the year.

[esqtvd]

Do you guys know when PG could extend if he exercises his PO as part of a sign-and-trade?

I feel like one interesting possibility is the Knicks. Brunson seems to be their leader on the court, and I think PG could actually fit there well. The other option is re-signing PG now, and trading him there later in the year.

After what they did to "Clipper for Life" Blake Griffin, I guess players should be wary about giving any discounts. Don't give me that "family" BS then treat it like a business.



https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22565251/steve-ballmer-la-clippers-talks-blake-griffin-tanking-value

[madmaxmedia]

Do you guys know when PG could extend if he exercises his PO as part of a sign-and-trade?

I feel like one interesting possibility is the Knicks. Brunson seems to be their leader on the court, and I think PG could actually fit there well. The other option is re-signing PG now, and trading him there later in the year.

After what they did to "Clipper for Life" Blake Griffin, I guess players should be wary about giving any discounts. Don't give me that "family" BS then treat it like a business.

If he gets a max offer anywhere he gone. But I don't think anybody should actually be doing that, unless you are really desperate to throw all your chips in next season. I think the Sixers is a great potential landing spot for him, but even they should balk at giving him a max offer IMO.

Paul George on how he handles the pressure of an elimination game: "I think the beauty of it is, the older I've gotten, the less pressure it's been, honestly... If you fail, you fail, but you just go out there and you give it all you have. Live with the results, I don't feel that pressure anymore."

PG in 3-4 years: "I think the beauty of it is, I'm so old I really DGAF either way."

[esqtvd]

Kawhi 2nd Team

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=2367062&p=113367881#p113367881

[esqtvd]

Kawhi 2nd Team All-NBA

PG Honorable Mention

[esqtvd]

It's not ALL luck at this point, but pretty close. A war of attrition.

One of the league’s young stars — Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton, Dallas’ Luka Doncic, or Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards — is going to win his first NBA championship this year. Brunson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were in that pool, too, before falling in the second round.

The Nuggets ran out of gas in their Game 7 loss to Minnesota, surrendering a 20-point lead to squash the possibility of a repeat title. In fact, this is the fifth year in a row that the defending champion did not make it past the following season’s second round. Three of the four teams in the conference finals did not advance that far last year.

https://www.inquirer.com/sixers/sixers-playoffs-indiana-pacers-boston-celtics-jalen-brunson-jaylen-brown-20240523.html

[MartinToVaught]

If the Mavs roll through the Wolves, PG will need an apology. No he's not a max player but he was double teamed like crazy all throughout the series. His one true stinker was game 5 if you ask me, but nobody is asking.

A few double teams shouldn't be enough to make a veteran so-called "superstar" who's demanding the max completely disappear from a playoff series. The fans have nothing to apologize for. PG is a huge disappointment.

[esqtvd]

It's not ALL luck at this point, but pretty close. A war of attrition.

One of the league’s young stars — Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton, Dallas’ Luka Doncic, or Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards — is going to win his first NBA championship this year. Brunson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were in that pool, too, before falling in the second round.

The Nuggets ran out of gas in their Game 7 loss to Minnesota, surrendering a 20-point lead to squash the possibility of a repeat title. In fact, this is the fifth year in a row that the defending champion did not make it past the following season’s second round. Three of the four teams in the conference finals did not advance that far last year.

https://www.inquirer.com/sixers/sixers-playoffs-indiana-pacers-boston-celtics-jalen-brunson-jaylen-brown-20240523.html

ADD: Pacers' Haliburton is questionable for Game 3 with a hammy and the TNT guys were just saying Ant Edwards looks exhausted. Yes, the game is changing toward youth and luck with injuries, but that's due to RS parity plus the first round going to 7 games instead of 5.

Likely WCF winner Dallas won 50 games and finished only 4 games [46 wins] ahead of the 10th [play-in] seed.

Likely champion Boston ran away with the East by 14 games over #2 NYK [50 wins] and is cruising even without Porzingis. And they're getting him back soon. And Luka is banged up. I'd say Boston in 5 except they're kinda gutless and Luka is prime time and Kyrie has a ring too. That's the only drama looking to the Finals, that the Celts will choke it away.

[As for coaching, according to some, Mavs coach Jason Kidd was the dumbest man in basketball 2 weeks ago. smdh]


As for what this has to do with the Clippers--I have no idea. We've tried load management with Kawhi, this year we tried playing the RS for real. I think the lesson to be drawn is that there are no lessons to be drawn from any of this. And that's a lesson too.

Master plans don't work. Put together the best team you can, don't trade away the future too much, take your lumps, enjoy your successes, see what happens.

And if you have the chance, trade Trae Young for Luka Doncic. Dude is sick.

[MartinToVaught]

We've tried load management with Kawhi, this year we tried playing the RS for real. I think the lesson to be drawn is that there are no lessons to be drawn from any of this. And that's a lesson too.

The real lesson is that at this stage of his career, Kawhi is not going to play in the postseason no matter what. Play him too much and his body wears down from the grind of a NBA schedule. But, as you mentioned, load management doesn't work either. He needs to be traded as soon as possible before the rest of the league catches on, because as it stands now, our ceiling going forward is a first-round exit every year with Kawhi on the bench in street clothes. There's no reason to expect anything else.

[esqtvd]

We've tried load management with Kawhi, this year we tried playing the RS for real. I think the lesson to be drawn is that there are no lessons to be drawn from any of this. And that's a lesson too.

The real lesson is that at this stage of his career, Kawhi is not going to play in the postseason no matter what. Play him too much and his body wears down from the grind of a NBA schedule. But, as you mentioned, load management doesn't work either. He needs to be traded as soon as possible before the rest of the league catches on, because as it stands now, our ceiling going forward is a first-round exit every year with Kawhi on the bench in street clothes. There's no reason to expect anything else.

The only formula is, there is no formula. 6 different champions in 6 years. And get lucky with injuries. But we agree, betting on older players with injury histories is just doubling down 2 x 4 x 8. Eventually you lose.

Boston is ass but already outlasted the Eastern Conference and should kill whoever survives the West. Tatum or Brown could even go do down but if you give them back Porzingis, that will be enough.

[Quake Griffin]

At this point, are we holding on to this roster for the sole purpose of not being embarrassed opening up the new stadium??