2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[9 and 20]

Lining up kind of nicely with Risacher and Sarr separating themselves. I'll take either, or at least the optimized version of them. If we could just fast forward to that, thanks.

[nate33]

Risacher's self creation is really poor. The handle isn't terrible it's just he's not creating any space. The Otto Porter Jr comparisons are legit. I think the role he plays now is the roll he'll play In the NBA without major skill additions. I buy the jumper. He also shows promise as a movement shooter. I think he can attack closeouts. He can go coast to coast in transition. There's just not much upside to an off-the-ball wing that's not a playmaker however.

I like the fact he's a 6-10 shooter with good athleticism, I just wish his game had some versatility.

Defensively he's smart and mature beyond his years in his rotations. His defense will need to be elite to bring real value.

I would not draft him top 5 but have him right below that in the 7-9 range.

It seems likes the consensus is that he is somewhere on the Otto Porter/MPJ/Cameron Johnson continuum. That's a very useful player and a solid 3rd or 4th starter on a winning team. You can certainly do worse with a #2 pick, but shouldn't you be able to do better?

[DCZards]

Small channel but this guy does a good job.

Watch on YouTube

This video highlights Sarr’s ability to handle the ball in the open court. Very impressive for a 7 footer. Also shows a nice passing touch. I hope he’s there at 2 for the Zards.

[nate33]

Convince me Atlanta wants to build around Sarr. He won't make the over-capped team better in year one. If they are picking him its because they need a teardown and rebuild. Is Sarr the foundational piece? He's not dominating in the NBL. Sure he'd help them earn a top pick if they decided to rip everything to the studs and tank for 2025 picks. Because it won't help them win. They could sell Okongwu or Clint to whatever bidders. I just don't think they would be able to offload Trae Young for picks. I think they may try to run it back with one more year of Trae, maybe set up for a mid-season trade if it doesn't work. They could trade back, but again, I see no eagerness among scouts over Sarr's game, so who is trading up for what? I would not be surprised if they took a look at a big guard or wing who can play next to Trae, and listened for offers for Murray, Bogdonavic or anyone else. Try to re-set on the fly out of necessity. Castle or Risacher in play. They are clogged at SF, but have pieces to trade out. Trae next to Holland would be dynamic, if they pulled some wild shuffling of pieces. I think Holland will impress in workouts and may leapfrog players who are mocked higher than him. He seems a likely surprise to jump to the top and his athleticism and motor and defense would help next to whichever short guard ATL commits to keeping. I think they split up Trae and Murray though.

I guess the argument for Atlanta taking Sarr is that he would be groomed to be Clint Capela's replacement (Capela has 1 year left on his deal). It kinda keeps this Atlanta thing rolling while resetting their cap structure. But does Atlanta really want to keep the status quo? Probably not. So they'll probably make a big change, either Trae or Murray will be moved. How that affects their draft strategy is anyone's guess, but I agree with you that they're disinclined to initiate a total rebuild. Trading down for some veteran help and a later pick seems like a likely option. But as you point out in the rest of your post, there aren't a lot of teams at the top of the draft who are excited about Sarr.

Wizards. We could take Sarr, due to positional length, versatility, etc. They have the timeline to pick a player who is sub par and bet on his development. Still, some part of what they look for is BBIQ and work ethic. I don't see Sarr registering as high in either category. I think they are set on Risacher and will take him if he falls. If he is gone they may listen to offers at the spot. I have a feeling they see Castle as an option though. In OKC they liked big guards, and Castle has been on scouts radar since they were tracking Collier but saw Castle challenge and outplay him at times. As for positional length, I think they'd happily live with some struggles of trying him out at the lead guard spot that he says he wants to play. As a tall PG he adds defensive versatility 1-4, and can make talents like Vukcevic more playable when the court is inverted. Topic may be in play and anyone who tracks stats will have to take a long pause before they pass over Sheppard.

If Sarr fares well in the Wizards' character evaluation, then I think he makes too much sense not to pick. He has perhaps the highest upside in the draft, but at the same time, he is a long term project who won't contribute to many wins anytime soon - ensuring the tank. And he plays one of our biggest positions of need (over the long term, anyway). But if they have too many doubts about Sarr's work ethic and love of the game (or if Atlanta takes him) then I really don't have any idea who the Wizards will take. Castle makes a lot of sense from a fit perspective, but I don't think they care about fit just yet. They're just going to take whomever they think has the highest long term upside. Maybe that's Topic, or Castle, or Holland, or Risacher, or even Buzelis. I'm pretty confident that they won't go for Sheppard or Dillingham though.

Rockets are in a win-soon phase. I don't see them taking a developmental Big. Off ball sniper Sheppard might fit, but I would not be startled to see them trade back for a veteran plus a pick or to take an older more established player like Knecht or Clingan. Knecht because every team needs shooting. They've got ballhandlers. But I lean more towards Clingan because while Sengun is their keystone player on offense, they still have to play in the West where the top contenders go double Big and after Tari Eason's .9 blocks per game, their next best shotblocker is Fred Van Vleet. In the West you need a guy to tire out opposing behemoths and to clog up the middle. What they don't need is more youth to develop. Clingan is a plug and play guy in the role they need most. Defensive big to sub in and soak fouls. Sengun can play with another big, he's too skilled not to. The Big to Big passing would be tough to stop. And when Sengun rests, Eason next to Clingan would be a tough wall to penetrate. I could see Sarr here for a similar reason, but he'd be sitting more than playing, with duplication by Eason in many respects, and Eason with the better motor. Clingan would play instantly, albeit off the bench.

One thing to keep in mind about the Rockets is that Amen Thompson absolutely blew up after Sengun got hurt. It's not really a knock on Sengun who is a fine player, but they discovered that Amen Thompson is totally unlocked if he can be surrounded by 4 shooters. With that in mind, I don't think Clingan makes a ton of sense unless they are buying his outside shot, which looks great in drills but not so great at the FT line in games. I think Sheppard makes a lot of sense in Houston as VanVleet's heir. If Sarr is still on the board, he makes some sense too as a rim protector who can complement Sengun by defending PF's and maybe even hitting a few outside shots.

Spurs will take Castle or Sheppard at 4 & 8 if they can. It was nice to try Sochan in that role but that was for tank purposes. Both of these guys are automatic Popovic favorites. Fundamentally sound team players who fight hard on defense. They have the best shooting coach in the league, Castle is the PG version of Kawhi Leonard. Maybe Topic is in play for them, but given that he plays no defense and can't shoot from outside I can see Pop being very cutting in dismissing him as a prospect in the draft process. But Sarr is a worse version of Wemby in every respect, of all teams they don't need him. If they took Castle early could see them taking a look at Dillingham at 8 though. Wemby is a security blanket on defense, they can take a small guard who is a dynamic creator, especially if they have off ball defenders. Tony Parker redux. They need shot creation more than a worse and weaker Wemby.

I think they will come away with one primary ball handler, either Topic or Dillingham, plus one wing defender, either Risacher, Castle, Holland or Buzelis. Exactly who depends on who is available at #4 and #8. I agree that Sarr is not on their wish list. I really like Topic here. His pick-and-roll magic alongside Wemby would be formidable.

Detroit is building around Duren. What does Sarr add? I can see Knecht here. A big shooter who can bail out the team and actually make shots from outside. They are desperate for shotmaking.

Detroit's incompetence makes them difficult to predict. I agree that they aren't so interested in Sarr that they would trade up for him.

[payitforward]

(on Risacher) ...There will probably be a better guy later in the draft....

No matter what player you mention, in the entire history of the NBA, it's pretty likely there was "a better guy later in the draft" his year.

[NatP4]

I'm not sure we should believe that France is all of a sudden capable of producing multiple lottery talents in consecutive years with such a poor history. After all of those failures, we now expect Sarr, Risacher and Salaun to be top 10 talents and for Dadiet to be the steal of the 2nd round?

There is definitely some recency bias/French league bias occurring due to Wemby and the flashes Bilal showed last year.

Dadiet is receiving no attention simply because he plays in the German league as opposed to the French league, also playing limited minutes. He’s a lottery talent.

Salaun is awful and really shouldn’t be in the 1st round conversation. There’s talk about him going top 5, which is absurd.

We are still comparing Risacher to his top end outcomes for some reason, and ignoring comparisons like Harrison Barnes/Hezonja/Knox who put up almost identical numbers.

Same goes for Sarr. The comparison is Evan Mobley, which is his ceiling, not his floor.

Traore is all the rage in the draft/scouting world, after lighting up the ANGT tournament. Nikola Topic did the same thing last summer, put up even better numbers, won tournament MVP, but received significantly less attention.

[tontoz]

Small channel but this guy does a good job.

This video highlights Sarr’s ability to handle the ball in the open court. Very impressive for a 7 footer. Also shows a nice passing touch. I hope he’s there at 2 for the Zards.

A lot will depend on his shot. If he can make open 3s then we can play him at the 4 which will be a big help imo.

I don't think he will ever be able to defend the C spot effectively. He is a skinnier version of Gafford, who struggles against big Cs himself. He was getting bullied by Zubac in the first round who isn't exactly elite.

[closg00]

I’m starting to get cold feet on Sarr/Zach , punting on the draft and taking a safer Castle/Reed/Rob/Clingan, then picking up another FRP for Kuzma, +26 would make me feel better, tank again for 2025 and hope we at-least get someone very good with one of these picks.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm not sure we should believe that France is all of a sudden capable of producing multiple lottery talents in consecutive years with such a poor history. After all of those failures, we now expect Sarr, Risacher and Salaun to be top 10 talents and for Dadiet to be the steal of the 2nd round?

There is definitely some recency bias/French league bias occurring due to Wemby and the flashes Bilal showed last year.

Dadiet is receiving no attention simply because he plays in the German league as opposed to the French league, also playing limited minutes. He’s a lottery talent.

Salaun is awful and really shouldn’t be in the 1st round conversation. There’s talk about him going top 5, which is absurd.

We are still comparing Risacher to his top end outcomes for some reason, and ignoring comparisons like Harrison Barnes/Hezonja/Knox who put up almost identical numbers.

Same goes for Sarr. The comparison is Evan Mobley, which is his ceiling, not his floor.

Traore is all the rage in the draft/scouting world, after lighting up the ANGT tournament. Nikola Topic did the same thing last summer, put up even better numbers, won tournament MVP, but received significantly less attention.

Instead of college or with the Ignite now defunct the top high school players should go play a year in France!

[Frichuela]

I’m starting to get cold feet on Sarr/Zach , punting on the draft and taking a safer Castle/Reed/Rob/Clingan, then picking up another FRP for Kuzma, +26 would make me feel better, tank again for 2025 and hope we at-least get someone very good with one of these picks.

Yep. Both Frenchies have obvious flaws.

Despite concerns about his shot, I am quite high on Castle. A 6'6" combo guard with a 6'9" wingspan and a winning pedigree.

If SAS is enamored with whoever drops to #2, I'd be willing to consider trading #2 for #4 plus future draft compensation.

At #4 I'd select Castle. And then try to trade Kuzma for another late lottery pick.

Last year, I was quite high on Cason Wallace, and Castle's numbers this year compare very similar to Wallace. And the difference is Castle is 3 inches taller and won the NCAA tournament as a freshman.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--cason-wallace

[prime1time]

Risacher's self creation is really poor. The handle isn't terrible it's just he's not creating any space. The Otto Porter Jr comparisons are legit. I think the role he plays now is the roll he'll play In the NBA without major skill additions. I buy the jumper. He also shows promise as a movement shooter. I think he can attack closeouts. He can go coast to coast in transition. There's just not much upside to an off-the-ball wing that's not a playmaker however.

I like the fact he's a 6-10 shooter with good athleticism, I just wish his game had some versatility.

Defensively he's smart and mature beyond his years in his rotations. His defense will need to be elite to bring real value.

I would not draft him top 5 but have him right below that in the 7-9 range.

If shot creation is the standard, who in this draft will be a consistent shot creator day one?

[prime1time]

I'm not sure we should believe that France is all of a sudden capable of producing multiple lottery talents in consecutive years with such a poor history. After all of those failures, we now expect Sarr, Risacher and Salaun to be top 10 talents and for Dadiet to be the steal of the 2nd round?

There is definitely some recency bias/French league bias occurring due to Wemby and the flashes Bilal showed last year.

Dadiet is receiving no attention simply because he plays in the German league as opposed to the French league, also playing limited minutes. He’s a lottery talent.

Salaun is awful and really shouldn’t be in the 1st round conversation. There’s talk about him going top 5, which is absurd.

We are still comparing Risacher to his top end outcomes for some reason, and ignoring comparisons like Harrison Barnes/Hezonja/Knox who put up almost identical numbers.

Same goes for Sarr. The comparison is Evan Mobley, which is his ceiling, not his floor.

Traore is all the rage in the draft/scouting world, after lighting up the ANGT tournament. Nikola Topic did the same thing last summer, put up even better numbers, won tournament MVP, but received significantly less attention.

These comparisons make no sense if you actually watch him play. Risacher is putting up consistent numbers and is a legit offensive threat coming off screens. He's closer to Rip Hamilton with his shooting ability than those guys.

[NatP4]

“Actually watch him play”= I watched 10 minutes of YouTube highlights.

[prime1time]

The questions about shot creation with Risacher is fair, but that's the upside. If he had it, he would be going number 1 overall. What we should point out is that his playing in a very tough league. A league that Bilal averaged 5 ppg last year. This is not a situation where they will just let him come in and do whatever he wants. The team is trying to win. So Risacher had to get with the program and accept his role. We should also point out that Euro ball is different than the NBA. The is no floor spacing in Euro ball. So, inevitably, there is a lack of shot creation.

This year Risacher when you combine the two leagues is at like 38-39% from 3. When you break it down further you see that he had a real slump that he has escaped from. In the Eurocup he was shooting a blistering 56% from 3 and that's over the course of 17 games. Now with the playoffs here he's once again shooting lights out.

Go back and look at Risacher's U18/U17 stuff. Once again it's all jumpers. And this is my fundamental point. There is a difference between someone who's a shooter and someone who simply works to improve their shot when they are in the league. The latter guy is just a floor spacer, while the former uses shooting as a weapon. When I see Risacher, I see shades of Klay/Reggie/Stojacavic.

At 18/19 he's playing in an adult league and with mostly his jump shot he's taking over games and deeply impacting the game. To compare this to a guy like Kevin Knox, Harisson Barnes or Otto doesn't make sense. What were those guys doing at 18? I can guarantee you they weren't taking over games with their shooting. Lastly, it should be pointed out that he's doing this in the same league that Bilal managed to score 5 ppg last year.

[prime1time]

One more thing about Risacher's lack of shot creation. There isn't one player in this draft who would have been able to consistently create shots in the league Risacher was playing in. It's just not the way Euro ball is played. In the NBA with open space and it's terrible defense, Risacher will be able to shot create. He might never be elite or even good, but again the upside is his shooting. As teams try to take away that, the ability to create will be his counter move.

Hawks might be so enticed with Sarr that they pass on him. Wizards should take him, but we are the Wizards so who knows. Rockets should take him but they need a big. So that could leave him going to the Spurs. Risacher is a Spurs player if I ever saw one. Teaming with Wemby would take his game to the next level. Imagine the Spurs leaving the draft with Sheppard and Risacher. Instant floor spacing for Wembanyama. Now they can go out and find a ball dominant guard who may not be an elite shooter and still maintain great offensive flow. Then 4 years from now Wizards fans can complain about how we didn't draft Risacher lol.

[closg00]

The nature of this draft all but guarantees a lot future what-if’s, get your predictions in now

[payitforward]

Look... there's just no way to know most of this stuff.
Teams have to make decisions, so they tell themselves the stories that make their decisions easier. Its not often -- not at all often! -- that they are right in an all-draft meaningful way. Just doesn't happen.

E.g. who are these guys? -- Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Raymond Felton, Martell Webster, Danny Granger, Nate Robinson, Jarrett Jack, David Lee, CJ Miles, Ersan Ilyasova, Lou Williams, Amir Johnson, Marcin Gortat?

They are the 15 best players from what was quite a deep draft -- 2005. I've listed them in the order they were taken.

Is that order strongly linked to how good they turned out to be? Given Bogut was the #1 pick & Gortat the #57?

Now add in the fact that, theoretically, you can trade the #1 pick for fifty #57 picks!

Chris Paul is the best player on that list -- by far! Picked at #4

OTOH, both Gortat & Amir Johnson were better than Marvin Williams (the #2 pick).

If CP3 was the best guard, who was the best guard taken after him? Lou Williams gets my vote. He went at 45.
Holy Moley! You can trade one #4 pick for a baker's dozen #45 picks!

Let alone the simple fact that the first 3 picks in '05 -- combined! -- weren't as valuable in the league as Chris Paul.

That year, Toronto took Charlie Villanueva #7, the Knicks grabbed Channing Frye at #8, the Warriors went for Ike Diogu at #9, the Lakers picked Bynum at 10, Orlando settled on Fran Vasquez at 11, Charlotte chose Sean May at 13, & on it went by way of Wayne Simien & Linus Kleiza with bigs taken in R1 before someone finally took a player worth picking, David Lee, to close R1.

Here's the thing ---- Its. The. Same. Every. Year.

Of course, sometimes it's obvious there's a great player on the board for you. No doubt about it!

For example, no one who held the #3 pick in 2015 would have taken anyone but Jahlil Okafor. You would have had to be nuts! The guy dominated college basketball as a Freshman!

So, now, tell me again -- how good is Alex Sarr going to be? Or bad?

[prime1time]

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Zaccharie-Risacher/Summary/175806
38.8% from 3 on 232 attempts from 3. How are we comparing this guy to Otto Porter? People are confusing the player Otto Porter became with the player Otto Porter was a freshman in college. The Kevin Knox comparison would be a good one, just make Knox a knockdown shooter. When Mario Hezonja was 18/19, he shot 46 3's. That is to say Risacher shot more than 5 times as many 3's as Hezonja at the same age and knocked them down at a higher percentage. Barnes shot 195 3's at UNC his first year at 34.4%. There is no realistic comparison that can be drawn between these two players.

Risacher is simply too good of a shooter for any of these comparisons to be adequate. Why does this matter? Because for those guys, the goal is to improve their shot. For Risacher, the goal is to work on counters.

Watch on YouTube

Also let's look at this play at 2:50. Risacher attacks the close out, blows past the defender and then rises up for a floater. This is what he'll be dealing with in the NBA. People running him off the 3-point line and we can already see that he has counters. In addition, look at how many defenders are in/near the paint. This is why there's no real shot creation in Euro basketball. Teams just pack it in and dear you to shoot. In the NBA, when Risacher has space, life will be much easier for him.

[dckingsfan]

The nature of this draft all but guarantees a lot future what-if’s, get your predictions in now

Yeah, you have that right. Along with the draft day predictions.

I haven't seen this kind of unsettled nature before the draft (or at least it feels that way).

I do appreciate this thread... it gives perspective on what the FO is looking at or could be looking at - at least I mostly trust this FO vs. the previous two.

[payitforward]

One more thing about Risacher's lack of shot creation. There isn't one player in this draft who would have been able to consistently create shots in the league Risacher was playing in. It's just not the way Euro ball is played. In the NBA with open space and it's terrible defense, Risacher will be able to shot create. He might never be elite or even good, but again the upside is his shooting. As teams try to take away that, the ability to create will be his counter move.

Hawks might be so enticed with Sarr that they pass on him. Wizards should take him, but we are the Wizards so who knows. Rockets should take him but they need a big. So that could leave him going to the Spurs. Risacher is a Spurs player if I ever saw one. Teaming with Wemby would take his game to the next level. Imagine the Spurs leaving the draft with Sheppard and Risacher. Instant floor spacing for Wembanyama. Now they can go out and find a ball dominant guard who may not be an elite shooter and still maintain great offensive flow. Then 4 years from now Wizards fans can complain about how we didn't draft Risacher lol.

Now Prime! Stop being a cynic! We are, all of us here, in recovery mode. We gotta retire that whole "so wizards" thing, man! Get with the program, dude -- start spreading those good vibes!

Ok? Got the picture? You start, & I promise I'll follow!