2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[Dat2U]

The Trae Young example is exactly why I don't want Dillingham. Young puts up spectacular numbers and made the All-Star game in 3 of his last 5 seasons, but he gives up on defense as much as he provides on offense. Here are Atlanta's win totals in his 6 NBA seasons:

29
24*
47*
43
41
36

He has won only two playoff series (both in the same season during their improbable 2021 ECF run). The first playoff series win, they beat a horrible NY team who started the shell of Derrick Rose, Reggie Bullock, 20-year-old RJ Barrett, Randle, and Taj Gibson. There one reasonably impressive playoff win was beating Philly in the year that Simmons imploded.

What I find problematic about Trae is that, after some early success, they've been totally unable to build a winning team around him. Even when they add more talent, he is a gaping hole in the defense. And you can't really offset that liability with more offense because any additional offensive players merely take the ball out of Trae's hands so there's no cumulative benefit.

I just think that type of player puts a ceiling on how good you can be. Yeah, he'll raise the floor quickly (perhaps too quickly), but so what? He condemns your team to a ceiling of 47-win No Man's Land.

*projected over 82 games

If Rob is really the next Trae Young, then the Wizards should be all over it because that's arguably going to be the best player in this draft.

Young has little to do with the Hawks struggles since they made the conference finals. Bad drafting and bad roster construction were a bigger issue. His contributions offensively far outweigh his defensive limitations. He's actually had playoff success.

I don't think he is as good as Trae Young because he doesn't have Young's vision and passing ability. So he's a poor man's Trae Young on offense (or more of a Darius Garland, actually), but with all the defensive problems.

Garland was an all-star before being regulated to off-ball status when Donovan Mitchell became the lead guy. To me that's a fine outcome this year. I liked Darius coming out and honestly I like Rob as a prospect a little more than I did Darius.

Going off the eye test... Rob is probably #1 in this class to me. No one else this draft cycle is creating as much type of space off the bounce and shooting it at such a high level.

[Dat2U]

If Risacher goes #1, I take Sarr.

If Sarr goes #1, I look for a trade down or take Rob Dillingham (Holland is right there too).

Dillingham, Holland, Collier, McCain & Ware are my favorite trade down candidates. I really want to acquire another pick for Holland if he slips past San Antonio.

Dadiet, Djurisic, Holmes II & Tyson are potential steals. I hope one drops to 26.

The talk about Portland wanting to move up...

Would you deal 2 for 7 & 14 ??

I think you're asking Dat this question. I'd be shocked if he said no -- I sure wouldn't!

Sure, I'd take it and hope either Holland or Dilly are there at 7.

[prime1time]

How do we make sense of the fact that people are arguing that Risacher can't become better at creating on ball while also having just witnessed the emergence of Deni Avdija after 3 years lackluster on ball play? Imo, Risacher is better at on ball creation as a prospect than Avdija was.

[payitforward]

I'm personally not overly impressed with Rissacher's measurements. A 6'10 wingspan is not that great compared to his height, and I'm assuming his standing reach isn't impressive either. I also noticed that he isn't particularly athletic in the open court, and doesn't get great elevation on his jumpshot. He also gets those struggle dunks where the ball grazes the rim, which I counted way too many times for a player his height.

I'm just not seeing what the scouts are seeing. WizardsKev basically said the same thing. Such a stark contrast from Bilal, who's freakish physical tools stood out immediately.

I would do the trade down with Portland.

At 7, Castle, Holland, Salaun could still be available. And at 14, could be looking at Ware, Missi, Tyler Smith, Filipowski.

We'd have 3 bites at the apple. We could come away with something like Castle, Ware, Dunn. Or Salaun, Missi, Carrington. Or Holland, T.Smith, Christie. Or Cody Williams, Filipowski, Dadiet. Or Buzelis, Collier, George...

It's a no-brainer -- but they aren't going to give us 7 & 14 for 2.
It's too rich an offer -- for all the reasons you point out!

What would be more likely is for us to trade our 3 picks (2, 26, & 51) for their 4 picks (7, 14, 34 & 40).

[Dat2U]

How do we make sense of the fact that people are arguing that Risacher can't become better at creating on ball while also having just witnessed the emergence of Deni Avdija after 3 years lackluster on ball play? Imo, Risacher is better at on ball creation as a prospect than Avdija was.

I assume your misremembering Deni as a prospect?

Deni was always a point forward with solid ballhandling. He was a slasher but the jumper needed work and it was his swing skill. That sounds nothing like Risacher.

[gesa2]

How do we make sense of the fact that people are arguing that Risacher can't become better at creating on ball while also having just witnessed the emergence of Deni Avdija after 3 years lackluster on ball play? Imo, Risacher is better at on ball creation as a prospect than Avdija was.

I don’t know that I’d choose Risacher with the second pick, but it seems people forget he’s 19 when they evaluate him. He’ll have some physical limitations with his thin frame and average athleticism but he’s reportedly super mature and a hard worker, so things like his handle and rim finishing should improve.
I’ve been thinking about in this draft where there’s no one that would clearly be a top tier, run our offense through them guy how we measure the gamble of taking someone that has a relatively small chance of being really elite in that role like Dillingham or maybe Topic, but who would have limited use if we drafted someone better next year for the initiator role vs drafting a lower ceiling player with a surer role once we get our top 10 player in ‘25 or ‘26.

[nate33]

How do we make sense of the fact that people are arguing that Risacher can't become better at creating on ball while also having just witnessed the emergence of Deni Avdija after 3 years lackluster on ball play? Imo, Risacher is better at on ball creation as a prospect than Avdija was.

I’ve been thinking about in this draft where there’s no one that would clearly be a top tier, run our offense through them guy how we measure the gamble of taking someone that has a relatively small chance of being really elite in that role like Dillingham or maybe Topic, but who would have limited use if we drafted someone better next year for the initiator role vs drafting a lower ceiling player with a surer role once we get our top 10 player in ‘25 or ‘26.

I don't think this is an unreasonable take. It's why I have Dillingham a bit lower than Dat2U does. With Dillingham, I fear that if he doesn't truly pan out as a dynamic scorer capable of being a #1 or at least a #1A option, then he is going to be a bench player. I'd prefer someone with a floor as a quality starter, but also with a ceiling of someone who could be a second-best or third-best player on the team if things break right.

So with that in mind, I think Sarr is probably the best bet. His floor is a Nic Claxton tier roll-man/rim-protector and that's still a starter; and his ceiling is an ultra-mobile switching big with a perimeter shot and that makes him a Chet/Mobley tier center that actually matters.

Topic is a possibility, but I think he'll be much better if paired with an elite roll man which we no longer have. That doesn't mean we shouldn't take him, but it may pigeon hole us into strictly a high pick-and-roll offense like what Dallas does with Luka. That's a type of system that fits fine with Coulibaly, but not necessarily with Deni. I dunno. I'm not a huge fan of Topic but I don't feel that strongly about him either way. I could definitely be wrong about him.

If Castle's shooting at the combine can be believed, it opens up a whole new level for him. Instead of an Anthony Black tier 5th starter, he could be a Jalen Suggs tier guy who is a lethal perimeter defender, an adequate albeit not particularly dynamic offense initiator, and a solid perimeter shooter. That's a 3rd best player.

Risacher looks like a reliable catch-and-shoot wing in the Cameron Johnson mold. I suppose the upside for him is that he becomes a plus defender and the shot continues to get even better. A Klay Thompson ceiling is possible, though it's risky to bet on anyone being a top 5 all-time shooter like Klay. (As a rule, I try not to assume anyone can replicate extremely rare phenomena like Curry/Klay tier shooting, or Draymond tier defensive awareness, or Jimmy Butler tier improvement in one's mid-20's.)

Sheppard is the other guy I would still consider as a guy with a 4th/5th starter floor but an upside as a 2nd/3rd best player on a good team if he can play PG. With him, you just have to trust the numbers - some of the best ever posted by a freshmen.

[NatP4]

How do we make sense of the fact that people are arguing that Risacher can't become better at creating on ball while also having just witnessed the emergence of Deni Avdija after 3 years lackluster on ball play? Imo, Risacher is better at on ball creation as a prospect than Avdija was.

I assume your misremembering Deni as a prospect?

Deni was always a point forward with solid ballhandling. He was a slasher but the jumper needed work and it was his swing skill. That sounds nothing like Risacher.

Youngest MVP in Israeli league history.

Per36 Deni averaged: 15 points 7.8 rebounds 3.3 assists 1.1 steals 1.1 blocks 2.6 turnovers with a 59.1% TS in 59 total games, 26 games in Euroleague.

People forget how good of a prospect Deni was.

[nate33]

Buzelis for reference:

Watch on YouTube

But yeah, no idea what goes into including certain clips vs others. Some of the videos have much shorter “defensive” sections than others.

After watching some of this, my opinion on Buzelis has definitely improved.

I was struck by how fluid of an athlete he is. He moves with very good balance and coordination and is quick to leap. He also has very good hands to poke the ball or block it in the air. He isn't flailing his arms wildly and praying he'll block it. He has good defensive awareness and quick feet.

Ultimately, I think Buzelis biggest weaknesses are things that will improve over time. He is still very skinny and light and can bullied off of his spot, but that should improve as he packs on muscle. At least he fights to hold his position. And he has visibly added some muscle already. The difference in his physique in early games and later games is noticeable.

Likewise, his shot wasn't particularly accurate, but his form looks good and I think it is likely that his shot will improve. His release point is high so that's a weapon that can utilized easily on a switch against a shorter player.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Buzelis for reference:

Watch on YouTube

But yeah, no idea what goes into including certain clips vs others. Some of the videos have much shorter “defensive” sections than others.

After watching some of this, my opinion on Buzelis has definitely improved.

I was struck by how fluid of an athlete he is. He moves with very good balance and coordination and is quick to leap. He also has very good hands to poke the ball or block it in the air. He isn't flailing his arms wildly and praying he'll block it. He has good defensive awareness and quick feet.

Ultimately, I think Buzelis biggest weaknesses are things that will improve over time. He is still very skinny and light and can bullied off of his spot, but that should improve as he packs on muscle. At least he fights to hold his position. And he has visibly added some muscle already. The difference in his physique in early games and later games is noticeable.

Likewise, his shot wasn't particularly accurate, but his form looks good and I think it is likely that his shot will improve. His release point is high so that's a weapon that can utilized easily on a switch against a shorter player.

I really lost any interest in Buzelis after watching him interviewed during the combine broadcast. Came across awkwardly, said he didn’t like basketball and wanted to be a swimmer. Only got into basketball because his parents played and he had the “genes” for it. I think I’ll pass.

[NatP4]

Meh, sounds like once he started playing basketball, he loved it. Remember, that’s a 19 year old kid being interviewed on ESPN for the first time, he’s nervous.

Watch on YouTube

My read on Buzelis is that he’s an irrational confidence guy. On JJ Redick’s podcast he cited JR Smith as a player he loved watching and modeled his game after.

[tontoz]

Has anyone heard of the "make up" NBA combine June 4-7? I read somewhere that it was for international prospects who couldn't attend the regular combine.

[NatP4]

Has anyone heard of the "make up" NBA combine June 4-7? I read somewhere that it was for international prospects who couldn't attend the regular combine.

Read on Twitter

Topic, Risacher, Dadiet, Salaun all expected to be there.

[doclinkin]

Doc, we know Risacher is one of your guys in the draft, do you have any top end outcome comparisons for Risacher? Or do you think his top end outcome is the MPJ/Otto/Cam Johnson comparisons? I simply have not seen any all star level NBA comparisons even mentioned for Risacher.

Is that worth the 2nd overall pick in your mind?

Top end? Any player reaches their top end by outperforming reasonable expected outcomes. What player would I hope to see ZR pattern his game off of? Pick any HOF offball catch and shoot specialist. From Reggie Miller to Klay Thompson.

Then flip it. What stats do you think the freshman Klay Thompson would put up in the French Pro league?

Freshman Klay per 36 at Washington State:
13.6 pts, 4.6 rb, 2 ast, 2.3 TO, 1 stl, .6 blocks , 42% FG overall, 41% 3FG (on 5 attempts/36), 90% FT shooting (on 1FTA/36).

Risacher per 36 in French pro A and Eurocup
17.2 pts, 6.2 rb, 1.4 ast, 2.5 TO, 1.3 stl, .7 blocks, .47% FG overall, 39% 3FG (on 5.7 attempts/36), 70% FT (on 4 FTA/36).

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=zaccharie-risacher--klay-thompson
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/klay-thompson-1.html

Remember you have argued that the lower level ABA would destroy NCAA tournament teams.
Agreed that the French Pro A is probably a notch or two stronger.
So probably Risacher is under a tougher stress test than Freshman Klay Thompson faced on the Washington State Cougars (7th in the Pac-10 that year).

The only stat where Klay has the clear advantage is his FT shooting, albeit on only 1 shot a game.
(For his college career Klay averaged 83% on 4FTA/36).

But the similarities are otherwise there. 6'10" wingspan, long reach (if narrow shoulders for ZR). Both with pro player dads. Similar shot profile. Defensive emphasis and effort. Etc.

Is it possible ZR reaches Klay's level? Sure. Probable? Not at all. Any NBA career is unlikely, and the HOFers are even more of an outlier by their nature. If he could manage 75% of Klay's production, would that be worth a #2 pick? 80%? Would you take Klay #2?

Point being for his age ZR is showing a prodigal game vs the level of competition he faces. It bodes well for his future development. The kid is pretty good, you have to figure he has upside once he is fire-tested at the NBA level, given that his game is a good fit for what NBA teams look for in a wing player. He has flaws no doubt, he's a kid who just turned 19, you expect his breakout to be 3-4 years away no matter what, even if he gets to play Olympics and World Cup with the France NT.

I am by no means saying he is a lock to be the best player in the draft. You know I want to trade back for another guy. future assets. But I am saying I trust the assessment of scouts and our front office if they like his game and project it to develop into a really good player at the next level.

[payitforward]

Solid, Doc.

& what one can say of Risacher, one can also say of every other prospect in the draft -- which is why all this "weak draft" stuff is devoid of any meaning.

[doclinkin]

The best shot creator in the draft is Rob Dillingham but no one seems to care because he's too small like Trae Young (164 lbs) and Ja Morant (174 lbs) and the idea of a PG that's a better scorer than defender repulses the Stephon Castle supporters.

Repulses. Strong verb.

I will say I like Rob Dills. Liked him early and attributed some of Sheppard's success to the gravity of Dillz with the ball. He's a danger. Comments by Coach Cal suggested he may be something of a diva, but I'm okay with him wanting the ball. Still, you know he's not the finisher that Morant was, nor the passer that Trae Young is. I don't see either. To me if I want to compare him to a smaller hero-ball gamer, I'd take the King of the 4th, Celtics version of Isaiah Thomas.

I've said Dillingham will be one of the most dynamic and fun players in the game. That he is the player that Jordan Poole believes himself to be. (That includes the poor defense though since Poole doesn't even bother to dream about defending). If he gets hot and plays at that near Kyrie level he will sell a ton of tickets and merchandise.

Where I am on Dillingham and Castle: Dillingham is small. He can dribble, he can shoot. He can pass. He can't learn to get bigger. He will always be a liability on defense. Castle is big, if he is a combo guard. If he can be a lead guard then he is huge. He can defend 1-3, rebounding like a forward already. He can improve his shooting significantly (as his combine showing suggested, and his critical 3pt makes in the NCAA tournament) and can improve his playmaking and handle as well. He has shown both in highschool, but showed he can adjust his role to suit a winning squad.

I wouldn't take either at 2 if I had a choice, I'd rather trade back and get assets. But if I had to pick between the two, yeah I'd lean towards the All-defense candidate and try to develop the rest of his game. I like his size and upside better than the undersized underdog who can dance and dazzle.

[dckingsfan]

... which is why all this "weak draft" stuff is devoid of any meaning.

Hmmm, I think when one labels this draft it is the "weakness of the top 3-5 picks.

I don't think that is devoid of meaning, it helps analyze how you would approach the draft. If Lebron & Magic were the top 2 picks, you wouldn't even think to trade down. With this batch, you probably would, right (I think both you and doc are in the same place on that and I would guess Nat would be there as well if it netted Nikola Topić and another draft asset).

I know, nitpicking. But I think it gives us an insight into what our and other FOs might be thinking.

[DCZards]

... which is why all this "weak draft" stuff is devoid of any meaning.

Hmmm, I think when one labels this draft it is the "weakness of the top 3-5 picks.

Then that’s what they should say. Because when I hear “weak draft” it sounds like people have already decided that there are no future all-stars in this draft… but as I’ve argued, as well as others, that is really unknowable at this point.

In fact, I would say it’s the “perceived” weakness of the top 3-5 picks. Because, in reality, we also don’t know if there’s a future all-star or HOFer in the top 3-5 picks.

[dckingsfan]

... which is why all this "weak draft" stuff is devoid of any meaning.

Hmmm, I think when one labels this draft it is the "weakness of the top 3-5 picks.

Then that’s what they should say. Because when I hear “weak draft” it sounds like people have already decided that there are no future all-stars in this draft… but as I’ve argued, as well as others, that is really unknowable at this point.

In fact, I would say it’s the “perceived” weakness of the top 3-5 picks. Because, in reality, we also don’t know if there’s a future all-star or HOFer in the top 3-5 picks.

Agreed. And that goes for all the picks in both rounds.

But the main point:

I don't think that is devoid of meaning, it helps analyze how you would approach the draft. If Lebron & Magic were the top 2 picks, you wouldn't even think to trade down. With this batch, you probably would, right (I think both you and doc are in the same place on that and I would guess Nat would be there as well if it netted Nikola Topić and another draft asset).

[DCZards]

Hmmm, I think when one labels this draft it is the "weakness of the top 3-5 picks.

Then that’s what they should say. Because when I hear “weak draft” it sounds like people have already decided that there are no future all-stars in this draft… but as I’ve argued, as well as others, that is really unknowable at this point.

In fact, I would say it’s the “perceived” weakness of the top 3-5 picks. Because, in reality, we also don’t know if there’s a future all-star or HOFer in the top 3-5 picks.

Agreed. And that goes for all the picks in both rounds.

But the main point:

I don't think that is devoid of meaning, it helps analyze how you would approach the draft. If Lebron & Magic were the top 2 picks, you wouldn't even think to trade down. With this batch, you probably would, right (I think both you and doc are in the same place on that and I would guess Nat would be there as well if it netted Nikola Topić and another draft asset).

I understand your main point…and it’s valid. I’m all for trading down for multiple picks, unless the Zards FO believes they have identified a gem with the second pick. I’m gonna give them the benefit of doubt in that regard because they have a lot more intel on potential picks than I—or anyone else on this board—has.