Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[TimberKat]

But why wouldn't Connelly just sign with Detroit if he was interested in going to Detroit and they were interested in him?

This. He had an opt out of his contract for this offseason, so he was essentially a free agent that could simply leave if he wanted.

I think Brian was trying to be sarcastic, since this was posted in the trade talk.

Sorry, should had use green fonts. I am still 60/40 on Connelly. The draft picks had been bad so far. Milton was disappointing. Morris is still MIA. Maybe he already had a grand plan cook up.

[shrink]

I have a buddy who is an highly successful independent software engineer. He is very expensive, designing the software to run major systems. But he never stays at the same company long, because businesses don’t need a guy that costs as much as he does, monitoring a well designed system.

I like Tim Connelly, but in all honesty, the system is mostly built, almost certainly for next year. I am not surprised Taylor wants to spend his money at age 83, and ARod and Lore don’t want to look like they can’t (despite another article today, this time from Brian Windhorst questioning their finances). If all the owners want to spend a ton on signing Connelly to a more expensive deal, (like Impredicted last month), more power to them. I think it can only help us to have a good GM, and it’s not like their spending affects our team payroll. But I’m not sure the remaining job is really worth $12-$15 mil, but I appreciate his eye for young talent evaluation.

[Klomp]

My buddy is a big time independent software engineer. He is very expensive, designing the software to run major systems. But he never stays put, because companies don’t need a guy with his hourly rate monitoring a well designed system.

I like Tim Connelly, but the truth is, the system is mostly built, almost certainly for next year. I am not surprised Taylor wants to spend his money at age 83, and ARod and Lore don’t want to look like they can’t (despite another article today, this time from Brian Windhorst questioning their finances). If all the owners want to spend a ton on keeping Connelly, more power to them. I think it can only help to have a good GM, and it’s not like their spending affects our team payroll. But I’m not sure the remaining job is really worth $12-$15 mil.

I understand the sentiment, but I don't agree with it.

If you rest on your laurels, you'll get passed up. The West is stacked. Look at Sacramento from last season to this season, all it took was a two-win decrease to drop them from the No. 3 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. That could absolutely be on the table if they aren't careful.

We made it to the Western Conference Finals, but we are still flawed in ways. The Lakers were satisfied with their WCF run last year and didn't really make any moves, and it came back to bite them too.

[BlacJacMac]

My buddy is a big time independent software engineer. He is very expensive, designing the software to run major systems. But he never stays at the same company long, because businesses don’t need a guy with his high hourly rate monitoring a well designed system.

I like Tim Connelly, but in all honesty, the system is mostly built, almost certainly for next year. I am not surprised Taylor wants to spend his money at age 83, and ARod and Lore don’t want to look like they can’t (despite another article today, this time from Brian Windhorst questioning their finances). If all the owners want to spend a ton on signing Connelly to a more expensive deal, (like Impredicted last month), more power to them. I think it can only help us to have a good GM, and it’s not like their spending affects our team payroll. But I’m not sure the remaining job is really worth $12-$15 mil, but I appreciate his eye for young talent evaluation.

Maybe not this year, but it likely will be in another when decisions about guys like Rudy, Naz and NAW all come to a head.

[shrink]

I understand the sentiment, but I don't agree with it.

If you rest on your laurels, you'll get passed up. The West is stacked. Look at Sacramento from last season to this season, all it took was a two-win decrease to drop them from the No. 3 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. That could absolutely be on the table if they aren't careful.

We made it to the Western Conference Finals, but we are still flawed in ways. The Lakers were satisfied with their WCF run last year and didn't really make any moves, and it came back to bite them too.

Do you think Tim Connelly is going to make big changes this year, or do you think he will mostly run it back?

I agree with BlacJac that we will need him more in the future. That could certainly make paying him now worthwhile

Look, I’m not saying I don’t want him back, or I care about the owners spending their cash outside the player payroll limitations of the CBA. It’s good news for us! I’m just wondering abstractly if they will get their money’s worth. Doesn’t matter to me if they do.

[Klomp]

I understand the sentiment, but I don't agree with it.

If you rest on your laurels, you'll get passed up. The West is stacked. Look at Sacramento from last season to this season, all it took was a two-win decrease to drop them from the No. 3 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. That could absolutely be on the table if they aren't careful.

We made it to the Western Conference Finals, but we are still flawed in ways. The Lakers were satisfied with their WCF run last year and didn't really make any moves, and it came back to bite them too.

Do you think Tim Connelly is going to make big changes this year, or do you think he will mostly run it back?

I agree with BlacJac that we will need him more in the future. That could certainly make paying him now worthwhile

Look, I’m not saying I don’t want him back, or I care about the owners spending their cash outside the player payroll limitations of the CBA. It’s good news for us! I’m just wondering abstractly if they will get their money’s worth. Doesn’t matter to me if they do.

As we've seen, sometimes not making moves is just as important as making moves. That is still a significant decision that needs to be made.

If he was making $15 million this past season, do you think Minnesota got their money's worth since he didn't really do much?

[Neeva]

Not making big moves two offseasons in a row though, that might be a bad idea, wolves know their major weaknesses, they need to to fix them also wolves can’t afford to lose Naz for nothing And Conley is 37 years old soon, gotta make proactive decisions.

[MN7725]

I think there is zero percent chance Utah does that deal. They’re not nearly close enough to being competitive to pay a 28 year-old a Max salary.

I can’t fathom Ainge thinking he can build a team around KAT, Kessler and Keyonte George…

Lauri is only signed through next season, that would be the reason to do it
and then as the cap increases, KAT's giant contract will look more normal in a couple seasons

but yeah, doesn't make a ton of sense

KAT's contract is not going to be more normal. His Contract is tied to the cap with 8% raises while the cap is projected to raise at 10%. So, for KAT's entire 5-year extension, it will be quite large, and not normal.

I meant "normal" as in good players that have one or two years left will be signing new contracts that will be at KAT's level, the new normal

[Klomp]

Dane and Britt brought something up at the very end of the season recap...with everything around the new cap/tax, the lower end is going to get squished. This means we'll see more value adds for the minimum, such as Derrick Jones Jr. in Dallas.

Another reason why I'd be shocked to see us truly outpriced for Kyle Anderson and/or Monte Morris.

[frankenwolf]

Dane and Britt brought something up at the very end of the season recap...with everything around the new cap/tax, the lower end is going to get squished. This means we'll see more value adds for the minimum, such as Derrick Jones Jr. in Dallas.

Another reason why I'd be shocked to see us truly outpriced for Kyle Anderson and/or Monte Morris.

For sure, there has been discussion that the "stars" are going to get their money, but some lower end talent, that maybe worth a lot more, will wind up with vet min price tags because of the caps. It all depends on the players mindset: Do they want to play for a championship contender or make more money? Theoretically, it will also provide parity for the league, because some of those players are going to want to make the money and the possibility is there that the GM can create a very good team from the top 40-60 ranked players.

[wolves_89]

I understand the sentiment, but I don't agree with it.

If you rest on your laurels, you'll get passed up. The West is stacked. Look at Sacramento from last season to this season, all it took was a two-win decrease to drop them from the No. 3 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. That could absolutely be on the table if they aren't careful.

We made it to the Western Conference Finals, but we are still flawed in ways. The Lakers were satisfied with their WCF run last year and didn't really make any moves, and it came back to bite them too.

Do you think Tim Connelly is going to make big changes this year, or do you think he will mostly run it back?

I agree with BlacJac that we will need him more in the future. That could certainly make paying him now worthwhile

Look, I’m not saying I don’t want him back, or I care about the owners spending their cash outside the player payroll limitations of the CBA. It’s good news for us! I’m just wondering abstractly if they will get their money’s worth. Doesn’t matter to me if they do.

I think there is a lot of value that Connelly provides that doesn't get much recognition. For example, I'd rate the Naz, NAW, Conley, and even the McDaniels signings as taking a bit under market value to stay in Minnesota. That doesn't happen if the organization isn't well run. Keeping the team competitive beyond next season is going to take real competence from the front office. I have no desire to return to the disastrous failures of the Kahn and Thibs level of leadership.

[Norseman79]

Two trades I consider if we are able to draft Tyler Smith.

MN out: Rudy, Kat, Moore jr.
MN in: D Murray, Capella, B. Miller, M. Williams

Cha out: Miller, Williams
Cha in: Kat, Hunter

Atl Out: Murray, Hunter, Capella
In: Rudy, Moore Jr.

Wolves
PG Murray, Conley, (AJ Johnson draft)
SG Ant, Naw, Clark
SF McDaniels, B Miller
PF Naz, draft (Tyler Smith), L Miller
C. Williams, Capella

Rip away.

[Klomp]

Two trades I consider if we are able to draft Tyler Smith.

MN out: Rudy, Kat, Moore jr.
MN in: D Murray, Capella, B. Miller, M. Williams

Cha out: Miller, Williams
Cha in: Kat, Hunter

Atl Out: Murray, Hunter, Capella
In: Rudy, Moore Jr.

Wolves
PG Murray, Conley, (AJ Johnson draft)
SG Ant, Naw, Clark
SF McDaniels, B Miller
PF Naz, draft (Tyler Smith), L Miller
C. Williams, Capella

Rip away.

Charlotte says definitely not.

[shrink]

Two trades I consider if we are able to draft Tyler Smith.

MN out: Rudy, Kat, Moore jr.
MN in: D Murray, Capella, B. Miller, M. Williams

Cha out: Miller, Williams
Cha in: Kat, Hunter

Atl Out: Murray, Hunter, Capella
In: Rudy, Moore Jr.

Wolves
PG Murray, Conley, (AJ Johnson draft)
SG Ant, Naw, Clark
SF McDaniels, B Miller
PF Naz, draft (Tyler Smith), L Miller
C. Williams, Capella

Rip away.

Maybe this would be team direction if we had missed the playoffs. Swap the vets for very young players, and hope they emerge. However, I’m hooked on winning games right now, and I imagine team direction is the same, to try to maintain public excitement when they ask for funding for a new arena.

[shrink]

Ok, don’t shoot the messenger, but would you trade Naz Reid for the #5 pick?

There are a lot of personal reasons that a Naz trade is unlikely. I wrote a post for the T&T board about it:

Okay Mamba - you’re on my list. Picture me as Steve Buscimi in Billy Madison.

Ok, seriously, the GM in me completely understands this. Thirteen months from now, MIN likely can’t afford to pay Naz what he deserves when he opts out, and his trade value on this year of low salary, to a team that CAN afford to keep him with Bird rights. He also isn’t a starter on the Wolves, and could be worth more to another team. This makes him a textbook trade candidate.

That said, I’ve been here long enough to learn these types of decisions aren’t 100% based on CBA math, and Naz is a perfect case for this. In fact, he is only on MIN now because Glen Taylor made an uncharacteristic intervention to get Connelly to raise his offer to keep him, and Naz Reid took less because he wanted to stay in MIN. This may have been the first time in franchise history a player took less to stay HERE, but he liked his teammates, and he wanted to repay MIN for taking a chance on him as a pudgy undrafted free agent. He is likely the second most popular player on the current team with fans, because his work ethic and competitiveness resonates with Minnesota values. A Naz Reid beach towel is a badge of honor.

I’d also point out that he is a big part of MIN’s advantage over other teams. The Wolves pound opponents’ bigs, challenging their size and picking up fouls. With Reid as sixth man, teams need 96 minutes of quality big man defense, which few teams can afford.

As a GM, I think a Naz trade makes lots of sense. But the NBA is entertainment, and the fans love Naz. I’m curious what offers this thread will draw, but I think the likely outcome is he plays one more year with the Wolves, and then, for the first time in his career, he gets paid what he’s worth as a free agent on another team.

But I wonder if the #5 would appeal to Tim Connelly? The deal has extra value to MIN because the pick has 4 years of team control, the lower price tag probably lets MIN stay under the second apron, and Connelly’s greatest GM strength is his ability to scout young talent. I’m no scout, so I can’t say what the #5 pick would be, four years from now, but to me, that’s a lot of value. Maybe Connelly would think so too?

[Norseman79]

Two trades I consider if we are able to draft Tyler Smith.

MN out: Rudy, Kat, Moore jr.
MN in: D Murray, Capella, B. Miller, M. Williams

Cha out: Miller, Williams
Cha in: Kat, Hunter

Atl Out: Murray, Hunter, Capella
In: Rudy, Moore Jr.

Wolves
PG Murray, Conley, (AJ Johnson draft)
SG Ant, Naw, Clark
SF McDaniels, B Miller
PF Naz, draft (Tyler Smith), L Miller
C. Williams, Capella

Rip away.

Charlotte says definitely not.

If they wouldn't go for Miller, I'd settle for a couple of firsts.

[Norseman79]

Two trades I consider if we are able to draft Tyler Smith.

MN out: Rudy, Kat, Moore jr.
MN in: D Murray, Capella, B. Miller, M. Williams

Cha out: Miller, Williams
Cha in: Kat, Hunter

Atl Out: Murray, Hunter, Capella
In: Rudy, Moore Jr.

Wolves
PG Murray, Conley, (AJ Johnson draft)
SG Ant, Naw, Clark
SF McDaniels, B Miller
PF Naz, draft (Tyler Smith), L Miller
C. Williams, Capella

Rip away.

Maybe this would be team direction if we had missed the playoffs. Swap the vets for very young players, and hope they emerge. However, I’m hooked on winning games right now, and I imagine team direction is the same, to try to maintain public excitement when they ask for funding for a new arena.

I don't disagree with you, I just don't necessarily see a major drop off. Rudy was great, and likely would still be solid, but is he worth the contract to us? Williams is a young promising big that I could see coming in at a much cheaper price and providing some of what Rudy did but also adding more on offense. Capella is a defensive backup to add some depth to the center position. Murray at point guard gives us the option of arguably the best defensive back court in the NBA. Not to mention insane switchability. I doubt Charlotte would include Miller, I just threw him in.

Thing is I don't think of the wolves as young anymore. If your core is Edwards, McDaniels, and Naz they are all at least 5 years in a league, and have made the playoffs 3 years in a row. At some point don't they need to become the veterans? Plus you keep players like Conley Jr and maybe even resign Anderson if we free up that amount of cap space. I do think it's extreme and had we missed the playoffs I think it would have been a no-brainer. There's always a fine line of when to run it back and when to move on.

[Klomp]

Thing is I don't think of the wolves as young anymore. If your core is Edwards, McDaniels, and Naz they are all at least 5 years in a league, and have made the playoffs 3 years in a row. At some point don't they need to become the veterans?

At some time, sure. But why force it?

[Klomp]

Ok, don’t shoot the messenger, but would you trade Naz Reid for the #5 pick?

There are a lot of personal reasons that a Naz trade is unlikely. I wrote a post for the T&T board about it:

Okay Mamba - you’re on my list. Picture me as Steve Buscimi in Billy Madison.

Ok, seriously, the GM in me completely understands this. Thirteen months from now, MIN likely can’t afford to pay Naz what he deserves when he opts out, and his trade value on this year of low salary, to a team that CAN afford to keep him with Bird rights. He also isn’t a starter on the Wolves, and could be worth more to another team. This makes him a textbook trade candidate.

That said, I’ve been here long enough to learn these types of decisions aren’t 100% based on CBA math, and Naz is a perfect case for this. In fact, he is only on MIN now because Glen Taylor made an uncharacteristic intervention to get Connelly to raise his offer to keep him, and Naz Reid took less because he wanted to stay in MIN. This may have been the first time in franchise history a player took less to stay HERE, but he liked his teammates, and he wanted to repay MIN for taking a chance on him as a pudgy undrafted free agent. He is likely the second most popular player on the current team with fans, because his work ethic and competitiveness resonates with Minnesota values. A Naz Reid beach towel is a badge of honor.

I’d also point out that he is a big part of MIN’s advantage over other teams. The Wolves pound opponents’ bigs, challenging their size and picking up fouls. With Reid as sixth man, teams need 96 minutes of quality big man defense, which few teams can afford.

As a GM, I think a Naz trade makes lots of sense. But the NBA is entertainment, and the fans love Naz. I’m curious what offers this thread will draw, but I think the likely outcome is he plays one more year with the Wolves, and then, for the first time in his career, he gets paid what he’s worth as a free agent on another team.

But I wonder if the #5 would appeal to Tim Connelly? The deal has extra value to MIN because the pick has 4 years of team control, the lower price tag probably lets MIN stay under the second apron, and Connelly’s greatest GM strength is his ability to scout young talent. I’m no scout, so I can’t say what the #5 pick would be, four years from now, but to me, that’s a lot of value. Maybe Connelly would think so too?

The offer for No. 5 was the only one in that thread that had any sort of intrigue for me. I actually don't hate the Top 5 in this draft, and I think it could allow us to address a few possible needs, depending on how the first four picks fall.

However, I just don't see it as likely. I think it's smart to keep Reid as Towns insurance, both in-season and looking forward to the bigger picture of the franchise's future.

[Neeva]

The player to trade is Towns, not Naz I think the wolves can resign Naz to something like 25/26 per season and he can still up his value as a starter. With Kat’s contract unless he becomes an mvp candidate (not likely), his value will not get any better, this is probably as high as it will ever be.

Also I think Rudy is easily worth more than Dejounte Murray and a horrible contract in Hunter and washed Capela.