2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[NatP4]

You don’t know in-advance if a potential team is going to benefit or not, that is your hope. In the end it comes down to which team is willing to make the gamble for their organization, not every team will have the luxury or desire to do-so, the Wizards certainly won’t be I would wager.

Of course not. No one does. Every player/pick is a “gamble”. I’m not at all saying the Wizards will pick Topic, I seriously doubt they will.

I’m simply saying the aim for the Wizards should be to pick the player(s) that will be the most impactful player over the next 10-15 years.

I think Topic will be the best player in this draft after recovering from the injury. In saying that, why wouldn’t you trade down and acquire another lottery pick and attempt to benefit from his slide down the board?

[dckingsfan]

My dream draft scenario:

Trade Kuzma for Giddey and the HOU 2025 FRP
Trade #2 to San Antonio for #8 and the ATL 2025 FRP
Draft Holland at #8 (or Buzelis if Holland is gone)
Draft Holmes at #26

We land one of the few guys with actual star upside in Holland, while also adding two 2025 picks that are likely to be in 8-16 range. We field a lineup where Kispert is the oldest guy in the rotation, try to develop young guys, and tank for 2025:

PG Giddey/Butler
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Deni/Kispert
PF Holland/Holmes
C Bagley/Vukcevic

It also nets us 3 picks in 2025.

The Giddey/Poole combo sends us back to the lottery for sure (especially with Poole playing SG).

[closg00]

You don’t know in-advance if a potential team is going to benefit or not, that is your hope. In the end it comes down to which team is willing to make the gamble for their organization, not every team will have the luxury or desire to do-so, the Wizards certainly won’t be I would wager.

Of course not. No one does. Every player/pick is a “gamble”. I’m not at all saying the Wizards will pick Topic, I seriously doubt they will.

I’m simply saying the aim for the Wizards should be to pick the player(s) that will be the most impactful player over the next 10-15 years.

I think Topic will be the best player in this draft after recovering from the injury. In saying that, why wouldn’t you trade down and acquire another lottery pick and attempt to benefit from his slide down the board?

Got it, he would definitely be worth a gamble, not sure I would go through all of that to get another pick for him, I probably would gamble elsewhere.

[tontoz]

If we stay at 2 i don't even know who i would want lol. Seems like everyone wants to trade down but that might be easier said than done.

[closg00]

B/R's latest mock:

2. Sarr
26. Tyler Smith
51. Juan Nunez

I like this draft, Smith may go in the lottery or well before 26, some don’t like Smith here.
Had to look up Nunez, found this ESPN article on top international prospects, it’s pretty good.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/NBADraft24-40285453/nba-draft-2024-international-players-need-know-alex-sarr-zaccharie-risacher

[J-Ves]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

He’d be my top target if we could get a late lotto pick for Kuz. I don’t think his shot is broken to the point of no repair.

[NatP4]

Got it, he would definitely be worth a gamble, not sure I would go through all of that to get another pick for him, I probably would gamble elsewhere.

And I haven’t been critical of your skepticism surrounding the knee injuries, just took a wait and see approach. Now, I genuinely want to see some evidence from recent (last 10 or so years) of players not recovering from ACL injuries.

Lonzo Ball is a meniscus injury and an extremely rare/unique case. Jamal Murray, Kawhi, Lavine, Porzingis, Klay(kind of) recovered and returned to form.

[NatP4]

Read on Twitter

[Frichuela]

Read on Twitter

If we end up picking Clingan at #2, some in this board are gonna go mental

[80sballboy]

Read on Twitter

If we end up picking Clingan at #2, some in this board are gonna go mental

I don't dislike him, but again, in everything Dawkins has said, that pick doesn't fit their goals of picking a player who will be really good in 2-3 years and will struggle early. Watching last night's game and Gafford struggling with some switches, I can only imagine his struggles on the perimeter.

[doclinkin]

Holmes has to be the most obvious late 1st round steal of all time. Just don’t understand why he’s not flying up the board in this draft. We’ve circled the wagons on just about everyone else in relation to the lottery: Collier, Salaun, Carter, Kel’el Ware, Cody Williams, Carrington, Edey. You name it.

I think he works out well and pulls a Podziemski/Jalen Williams. Jumps to way higher than he is mocked right now. I could see him going before any of the guys you just named.

[gesa2]

This is an absolutely bonkers idea, some team fat with talent and draft assets can make this kind of gamble, but the Wizards are not going to trade down and use their top pick on the unknown of Topic after tanking.

Nope. A team with a long term approach, not seeking instant gratification will benefit here.

Feel free to provide evidence of players not recovering from torn ACLs in the last 10 years.

Meniscus tears are much less predictable than ACL injuries. There’s some chance he has more damage in his knee than the ACL we know about, but the teams have a much clearer picture and lots of data on these injuries. They can work this risk into the risk inherent in any prospect and make a good decision.
I worry more about the lack of data about how he would have adapted to the higher level of competition if he had more time

Edited to add - looks like this was basically said already.

[NatP4]

Meniscus tears are much less predictable than ACL injuries. There’s some chance he has more damage in his knee than the ACL we know about, but the teams have a much clearer picture and lots of data on these injuries. They can work this risk into the risk inherent in any prospect and make a good decision.
I worry more about the lack of data about how he would have adapted to the higher level of competition if he had more time

Edited to add - looks like this was basically said already.

The question for me: does this injury limit his potential/decrease his “ceiling” as a player? Or does it simply delay the start of his career?

If it’s the latter, it should not at all matter. The goal of the 2024-2025 Wizards should be to lose enough games to finish bottom 4 while continuing to develop all young players/acquire assets.

In terms of next level production; which draft prospect has had success in the Euroleague, outside of Luka Doncic? It never happens. 18 years old never play significant roles in Euroleague.

Topic excelled in the Serbian league, FIBA/international, ANGT, and Adriatic league. If he never made the jump to Euroleague (and didn’t get injured obviously), he still goes top 3 based on previous production.

[payitforward]

My dream draft scenario:

Trade Kuzma for Giddey and the HOU 2025 FRP
Trade #2 to San Antonio for #8 and the ATL 2025 FRP
Draft Holland at #8 (or Buzelis if Holland is gone)
Draft Holmes at #26

We land one of the few guys with actual star upside in Holland, while also adding two 2025 picks that are likely to be in 8-16 range. We field a lineup where Kispert is the oldest guy in the rotation, try to develop young guys, and tank for 2025:

PG Giddey/Butler
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Deni/Kispert
PF Holland/Holmes
C Bagley/Vukcevic

Be still my beating heart!!

You leave out our #51 pick, where we're going to get Cam Christie or Pelle Larson or Jonathan Moghbo, & he's going to turn out to be a stud.

Then sign Mark Sears undrafted -- going to be a big success story in the league.

[TGW]

My dream draft scenario:

Trade Kuzma for Giddey and the HOU 2025 FRP
Trade #2 to San Antonio for #8 and the ATL 2025 FRP
Draft Holland at #8 (or Buzelis if Holland is gone)
Draft Holmes at #26

We land one of the few guys with actual star upside in Holland, while also adding two 2025 picks that are likely to be in 8-16 range. We field a lineup where Kispert is the oldest guy in the rotation, try to develop young guys, and tank for 2025:

PG Giddey/Butler
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Deni/Kispert
PF Holland/Holmes
C Bagley/Vukcevic

You gotta problem with Bilal?

[DCZards]

Then sign Mark Sears undrafted -- going to be a big success story in the league.

Sears withdrew from draft. Going back to ‘Bama.

[penbeast0]

My dream draft scenario:

Trade Kuzma for Giddey and the HOU 2025 FRP
Trade #2 to San Antonio for #8 and the ATL 2025 FRP
Draft Holland at #8 (or Buzelis if Holland is gone)
Draft Holmes at #26

We land one of the few guys with actual star upside in Holland, while also adding two 2025 picks that are likely to be in 8-16 range. We field a lineup where Kispert is the oldest guy in the rotation, try to develop young guys, and tank for 2025:

PG Giddey/Butler
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Deni/Kispert
PF Holland/Holmes
C Bagley/Vukcevic

You gotta problem with Bilal?

Nate's a long time fan of the team. Even in his dreams, one of the Wizards' core is injured or otherwise unavailable.

[closg00]

Read on Twitter

Our cupboard is bare of centers after next-season, we could be game-planning a different board with extra pick(s) for Kuzma, Clingan is expected to be off the board by 6 supposedly, we gotta check him out.

[dckingsfan]

If we end up picking Clingan at #2, some in this board are gonna go mental

As well they should... but this FO won't do that to us - I have trust.

[Frichuela]

If we end up picking Clingan at #2, some in this board are gonna go mental

As well they should... but this FO won't do that to us - I have trust.

Agreed. Most likely they may be considering a play for him in a trade down.