Bulls trade Alex Caruso to OKC for Josh Giddey

[PlayerUp]

If Giddey got even injury which would take him out half a season, he would still get max extension.

Would be shocked if Giddey gets a max extension without absolutely massive improvement unless our front office is just delusional. If anyone viewed him as a max player, they would have topped our offer for him.

All you have to do is just let him become a restricted FA and let the market determine his value. Same with Pat. If he is worth the max, then that's because he blew up in Chicago which is a win-win for us.

[Dan Z]

Giddey has already made 18.8 million for his career. This year it's another 8.3 million. I know there are agent cuts and taxes, but if he was smart with his money he's already set for life. I also didn't include any endorsements and other earnings that aren't from his NBA contract.

A good way to look at wealth is that your life style changes by multiples.

If you figure that after the insane amount of taxes you get hit on and the reasonable splurges one might make if you are 19 and have millions of dollars but aren't incredibly stupid, let's say he has half of that 26M left at 13M.

Yes, you could put that in the bank and life a comfortable middle class life style on it, but you'd be a bit dicey to put that in the bank and live a lavish FU money life style, and if you have 2 kids and they have 2 kids and split the money between them, they probably are going to run out of money.

Let's say you sign a 100M dollar deal now, and you keep roughly 60M in the bank after taxes/fees, because you still got petty cash of 13M chilling out from the first deal. This isn't "I can support a family in a middle class suburb without working" money, this is "I've got a beach house in Miami and throw $10,000 parties every weekend" money, or if you are responsible it's "I am set for life, my kids are set for life, my grand kids are set for life, and their grand kids are set for life" type money.

To get into another stratosphere of wealth, you probably need about 4x-5x that money to get to the "I own multiple exotic houses, have a staff, a yacht and a jet" type of money where the quality of life meaningfully changes again (to the extent quality of life really can meaningfully change after like 50M).

I agree, but my point is that if he's been smart he can live a comfortable middle class lifestyle even if his NBA career fell apart.

With that in mind why not take a chance for a better contract instead of going the safe route? I think there's a good chance he gets a solid deal even if he only has an ok season.

[dougthonus]

I agree, but my point is that if he's been smart he can live a comfortable middle class lifestyle even if his NBA career fell apart.

With that in mind why not take a chance for a better contract instead of going the safe route? I think there's a good chance he gets a solid deal even if he only has an ok season.

That's clearly what he will likely do and it is what most people do.

So here I'm creating two choices with financially equivalent outcomes (ie, if you add up the range of possibilities * probabilities you get the same value as the early offer). You don't have to use these numbers as what you'd agree on what the fair range of possibilities is, but if you could agree on what a reasonable set of odds are (and there is enough examples of players that you could probably mathematically do this), then comparing:

130M guaranteed is a fair market value hedge to:

1% chance 28M (career ending event happens)
4% chance 70M (significant value change due to poor play / injury / both)
30% chance 130M (on the track he's on now)
40% chance 150M (shows enough improvement that there's an additional 5M by waiting
15% chance 185M (shows big improvement and is near max guy)

If it were me, I would take the hedge. The practical financial outcome of my life is so much higher at 130M vs 28M or 70M and the gap between 150 and 130 is irrelevant, and the gap between 130 and 185 is not nearly as important to me.

But as I noted (and as you would also seem to prefer) the vast majority of players will take the 2nd bucket rather than the first. Young people especially will overlook the dismiss the low odds events of really poor outcomes.

Guys like DeMarcus Cousins and Nerlons Noel are some examples of guys who had chances to sign early and didn't and completely F'd themselves. Not sure that Isaiah Thomas had a chance to sign earlier but another guy who got hurt right before big money.

Bobby Portis is a guy who ended up in the 2nd bucket, the Bulls offered him 4/64 and he's presently signed to break even with that deal over 7 years instead of 4. Dennis Schroder is another guy who turned down an offer from the Lakers and never remotely had a shot at it again.

At any rate, it's high stakes stuff where sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. If Giddey shoots 25% from three this year and doesn't improve his defense, he's probably in that "MLE or less value" bucket. That's not really that absurd of a possibility.

Again, generally with these hedging scenarios, players pass on them and I'm not sure that people ever can agree on the probability table or that the hedges offered are really always fair, but typically, I'd say early extensions usually overpay the player and assume the good outcome.

[MGB8]

Agreed. Let me add to that - as you increase amounts, the marginal impact of the next dollar generally diminishes (unless the dollars are enough to elevate to an entirely different tier of wealth).

For most people the difference between 10K v 100K v 1M in the bank is huge. In terms of impact, the difference between 1M in the bank vs. 2M in the bank is, for most, far less than the difference between 100K and 1M… even though the difference between 2M and 1M (I.e., 1M) is greater than the difference between 1M and 100K (900K). The difference between 200M and 100M, while numerically 25% larger than the difference between 20M and 100M…. is, impact wise, generally smaller. To guarantee 100M+, if you are thinking ahead, rather than gambling on the 80M downside vs. 100M upside… not the greatest bet.

[DropStep]

If Giddey got even injury which would take him out half a season, he would still get max extension.

Would be shocked if Giddey gets a max extension without absolutely massive improvement unless our front office is just delusional. If anyone viewed him as a max player, they would have topped our offer for him.

All you have to do is just let him become a restricted FA and let the market determine his value. Same with Pat. If he is worth the max, then that's because he blew up in Chicago which is a win-win for us.

The max is way too much to even consider at this point. And I think matching is usually just a meh deal. It's actually probably more expensive than the average meh deal because you're matching the absolute highest offer in the league from the team with probably the highest player evaluation out of all those with the ability to make an offer. And, some will offer poison pill contracts that are hard to match just to mess with you.

I'd rather roll the dice now and lock him down before we hand him the keys, if AK feels pretty certain about his evaluation, which his actions would say he does. That gives us a decent chance at getting a real win here if he's say, a fringe all-star like Zach and DeMar, much less a huge all-NBA type in the next few years. The Bulls could really use a win, not another average, market-rate deal for an average, market rate franchise. Maybe he's interested in some long-term security with a reasonable but good sized bag at age 21. He'd still be well set up to get a max offer at age 25 or so if things go super well, with another big contract after that. And, it takes the worst case, Celtics Isaiah Thomas-type scenario off the table for a guy who just got benched and risked being thrown in jail. We'll see.

[DropStep]

Would be shocked if Giddey gets a max extension without absolutely massive improvement unless our front office is just delusional. If anyone viewed him as a max player, they would have topped our offer for him.

All you have to do is just let him become a restricted FA and let the market determine his value. Same with Pat. If he is worth the max, then that's because he blew up in Chicago which is a win-win for us.

The max is way too much to consider at this point. And I think matching is usually just a meh deal. It's actually probably more expensive than the average meh deal because you're matching the absolute highest offer in the league from the team with probably the highest player evaluation out of all those with the ability to make an offer. And, some will offer poison pill contracts that are hard to match just to mess with you.

I'd rather roll the dice now and lock him down before we hand him the keys, if AK feels pretty certain about his evaluation, which his actions would say he does. That gives us a decent chance at getting a real win here if he's say, a fringe all-star like Zach and DeMar, much less a huge all-NBA type in the next few years. The Bulls could really use a win, not another average, market-rate deal for an average, market rate franchise. Maybe he's interested in some long-term security with a reasonable but good sized bag at the age of 21. He'd still be well set up to get a max offer at age 25 or so if things go super well, with another big contract after that. And, it takes the worst case, Celtics Isaiah Thomas-type scenario off the table for a guy who just got benched and risked being thrown in jail. We'll see.

(That's three different mixed metaphors in one sentence btw, you're welcome.)

[HomoSapien]

It's a fair point, but they obviously were shopping Caruso a long time across multiple deadlines and had lots of offers. I think they took the one they liked the most and were thorough in soliciting offers. Maybe they could have tried to squeeze harder, but if you have multiple bidders and have been in the process a long time, your most powerful negotiating tactic is ALWAYS playing real offers against each other and letting people bid against themselves.

They had that scenario, and in that scenario, they should hit near the best price even with incompetence.

I certainly don't think they could've gotten Giddey and 12, but I just find it tough to believe that Presti would have walked over second-round picks or some of the less valuable firsts. The Thunder have approximately 37 picks in the next seven drafts (depending on how and if they convey). They need to start cashing in on them and this seems like a missed opportunity make that happen.

Like you said, Presti is a good negotiator. So far, AK has lost nearly every trade he has made. It seems so unlikely that they suddenly learned how to negotiate for this trade that we should probably rule it out as a possibility. They either don't value picks or they're bad at trades. Neither helps us.

Chris Haynes' tidbit about how the Bulls feel like they desperately need to win the Zach LaVine trade seems related to Giddey. The Rensdorf's probably read and watched all the same negative reactions we did and now are pressuring AK to pull off a trade that feels like a true win.

I do think the Giddey allegations are clouding people's opinions here. I'm guilty of it too as I'm not viewing this trade strictly from a basketball perspective. If this trade happened a year ago, the response would be so much more positive. But because his value is at an all-time low, it feels like a missed opportunity to improve our war chest.

[dougthonus]

I certainly don't think they could've gotten Giddey and 12, but I just find it tough to believe that Presti would have walked over second-round picks or some of the less valuable firsts. The Thunder have approximately 37 picks in the next seven drafts (depending on how and if they convey). They need to start cashing in on them and this seems like a missed opportunity make that happen.

Like you said, Presti is a good negotiator. So far, AK has lost nearly every trade he has made. It seems so unlikely that they suddenly learned how to negotiate for this trade that we should probably rule it out as a possibility. They either don't value picks or they're bad at trades. Neither helps us.

Chris Haynes' tidbit about how the Bulls feel like they desperately need to win the Zach LaVine trade seems related to Giddey. The Rensdorf's probably read and watched all the same negative reactions we did and now are pressuring AK to pull off a trade that feels like a true win.

I do think the Giddey allegations are clouding people's opinions here. I'm guilty of it too as I'm not viewing this trade strictly from a basketball perspective. If this trade happened a year ago, the response would be so much more positive. But because his value is at an all-time low, it feels like a missed opportunity to improve our war chest.

In the end, I've said this before, it appears our options were:
1: Giddey
2: #13
3: Draft capital from NY that was speculated to be #24 and #25

Of those options, Giddey has probably the highest floor, highest ceiling, and worst contract situation. For a team like us not interested in doing a full rebuild, Giddey feels like the best choice. It sucks we have to make a decision on the money so soon though.

In terms of liking this a year ago but not now, that's what makes it a good move, no way in hell was this trade available a year from now, we may potentially be buying super low here due to a weird year influenced by off-the-court stuff that whether you find it distasteful or not, you probably agree isn't likely to ever be a factor going forward, and getting a young player that has some incredibly rare statistical markers and is an elite passer.

It can definitely fail, but this seems like a lot of upside relative to the cost of a guy who was a role player for you on the MLE for 3 years and was going to be gone in a year either way.

[djsunyc]

I now hate the trade.

Giddey up!!! Ayo Silver, awaaaaaay!!!!!

Oh dear God!

would you rather he be called p. giddey?

[Dan Z]

I agree, but my point is that if he's been smart he can live a comfortable middle class lifestyle even if his NBA career fell apart.

With that in mind why not take a chance for a better contract instead of going the safe route? I think there's a good chance he gets a solid deal even if he only has an ok season.

That's clearly what he will likely do and it is what most people do.

So here I'm creating two choices with financially equivalent outcomes (ie, if you add up the range of possibilities * probabilities you get the same value as the early offer). You don't have to use these numbers as what you'd agree on what the fair range of possibilities is, but if you could agree on what a reasonable set of odds are (and there is enough examples of players that you could probably mathematically do this), then comparing:

130M guaranteed is a fair market value hedge to:

1% chance 28M (career ending event happens)
4% chance 70M (significant value change due to poor play / injury / both)
30% chance 130M (on the track he's on now)
40% chance 150M (shows enough improvement that there's an additional 5M by waiting
15% chance 185M (shows big improvement and is near max guy)

If it were me, I would take the hedge. The practical financial outcome of my life is so much higher at 130M vs 28M or 70M and the gap between 150 and 130 is irrelevant, and the gap between 130 and 185 is not nearly as important to me.

But as I noted (and as you would also seem to prefer) the vast majority of players will take the 2nd bucket rather than the first. Young people especially will overlook the dismiss the low odds events of really poor outcomes.

Guys like DeMarcus Cousins and Nerlons Noel are some examples of guys who had chances to sign early and didn't and completely F'd themselves. Not sure that Isaiah Thomas had a chance to sign earlier but another guy who got hurt right before big money.

Bobby Portis is a guy who ended up in the 2nd bucket, the Bulls offered him 4/64 and he's presently signed to break even with that deal over 7 years instead of 4. Dennis Schroder is another guy who turned down an offer from the Lakers and never remotely had a shot at it again.

At any rate, it's high stakes stuff where sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. If Giddey shoots 25% from three this year and doesn't improve his defense, he's probably in that "MLE or less value" bucket. That's not really that absurd of a possibility.

Again, generally with these hedging scenarios, players pass on them and I'm not sure that people ever can agree on the probability table or that the hedges offered are really always fair, but typically, I'd say early extensions usually overpay the player and assume the good outcome.

I agree with you. There's also the possibility that Giddey and/or the Bulls want to wait and see how he plays before giving him an extension.

I looked up DeMarcus Cousins. He made 94 million during his career. I'm sure he's fine, but disappointed in how his career ended.

Nerlens Noel made 45 million. He also might be okay, but I'm sure he's disappointed that he didn't take that contract offer from the Mavs (if it was really offered).

[dice]

Giddey has already made 18.8 million for his career. This year it's another 8.3 million. I know there are agent cuts and taxes, but if he was smart with his money he's already set for life. I also didn't include any endorsements and other earnings that aren't from his NBA contract.

A good way to look at wealth is that your life style changes by multiples.

If you figure that after the insane amount of taxes you get hit on and the reasonable splurges one might make if you are 19 and have millions of dollars but aren't incredibly stupid, let's say he has half of that 26M left at 13M.

40% off the top in taxes, agent fees, family and friends looking for handouts, nba lifestyle pressure to spend lavishly...

[Dali]

HI Bulls fans. An Aussie basketball fan saying hello. Congrats on acquiring Josh Giddey.

Just a few things to mention in regards to josh and some stats to perhaps point out because sometimes things aren't necessariy as people think they always are.

Lou dort, who the Thunder swear by, and who the Thunder and it's fans believe that he is an elite defender, when you actually look at the conbributions between him and Giddey, it isn't actually perhaps that straight forward.

Dort defensive rating in the regular season: 112.1
Giddey defensive rating in the regular season: 111.5

Now I'm not saying that Giddey is a better defender, you need to take in the eye test as well. It is however undeniable, that the stats are as they are, and that Giddey was a slightly higher net rating over the regular season, and when he was on the court, the thunder were slightly better with him on the court, defensively.

Dort PIE rating for the regular season was 6.
Giddey's PIE rating was double, 12.2 That's quite a sizeable difference.

Dort: PER rating 11.1 which isn't awful.
Giddey: PER rating 16.6, which is pretty damn good. A PER rating of 20 and you're talking about a star/all star, and his PER wasn't a mile off of that this season, even in the season where the Thunder forced him to take a back seat, almost all the way in the back, to SGA and some other players.

Now lets get to the playoffs.

Dort defensive rating: 104.9 which is pretty damn good.
Giddey defensive rating: 98.9, so if Dort's is pretty damn good, this number is elite.

Once again, I'm not saying Giddey is a better defender, but its extremely clear that the thunder in the playoffs were so much better defensively with Giddey on the court. It is also interesting that the series that the thunder benched Giddey in, they lost that one pretty handily. It's not a coincidence in my opinion, and I truly think they made a mistake by doing that and messing with the team dymanic that got them the number 1 seed, and to the western conference semi finals.

To keep things fair, I want to highlight his weaknesses, which is still 3 point shooting. He's improving every year, but tough love is needed with him, i will not accept anything below 35% for the year, and ideally he needs to be around 36/37%. No excuses. Get in the gym and work, Josh. He needs to still get better on D, especially with his lateral movement, and could do with putting a bit of muscle on his frame. He also needs to increase his percentage around the rim when he drives, I believe his numbers at the rim were down compared to previous years.

I truly hope that Josh does well with you guys, and even though I may not be a Bulls fan per say, a good Josh also surely means good things for the bulls.

[Ice Man]

40% off the top in taxes, agent fees, family and friends looking for handouts, nba lifestyle pressure to spend lavishly...

Somewhat more, for most. The federal tax rate is 37% for income over $500k. State taxes vary, but average about 5%. NBA agent commissions are 4%. Factor in peeps and living costs, and that's likely to be about 60% of a mid-range salary.

[ChettheJet]

Let's examine the trade post draft day 1.

WASH traded Deni Avdija who isn't an exact Josh Giddey duplicate but they are similar ages and have similar games and results.

Would PORT have given up Brogdan and 2 FRPS for Alex Carsuo? The Bulls were supposedly asking for 2 picks, adding a solid veteran PG like Brogdan would have worked for the Bulls with or without Lavine.

Would OKC have offered Giddey for the picks and Brogdan?

To me the Bulls got what they needed without taking on more than they wanted maybe not as much as anything some think they could have gotten for AC.

[kodo]

Would PORT have given up Brogdan and 2 FRPS for Alex Carsuo? The Bulls were supposedly asking for 2 picks, adding a solid veteran PG like Brogdan would have worked for the Bulls with or without Lavine.

We wouldn't be partners because this was a salary dump by Portland to get under lux tax, we're not open to adding more salary. We're trying to do the same thing, dump salary by trading Lavine.

This move takes POR below the lux tax and all the penalties that comes with that, so was worth a ton. And then on top of that they get a great 6' 9" defender on a descending contract...he'll still be on contract in 2028 at only $11M. It's a fantastic contract that Paxson used to do as descending contracts look better as the cap gets bigger and it's worked out great here.

If this was a straight basketball move with no financial benefit, it's probably 1 pick for Deni. And even then I would take Deni for 5 years vs Caruso for 1 year.