Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[dckingsfan]

The debate shouldn't be about Deni's progress, rather it should be about where he is, where he is going, his contract and did we get the appropriate value in the trade. The rest is obfuscation...

Deni's progress is on Deni and he had a terrific jump last season. It looks like he will continue to improve into a solid starter. His contract is terrific. We didn't get near to the appropriate value for him.

What is appropriate value then? If Two firsts, Two Seconds and an $22.5M expiring contract is not, I’m wondering if you guys are being realistic...

...There a strong chance that the Wizards brass figured this might be his peak value and cashed in. I for one, ain’t really mad at it.

First, you have to think that Deni has topped out to follow your logical path and the FO as well. Let's agree to disagree there - I think Deni will make another jump this year. If he does, he will be worth significantly more. So, there is that.

An expiring contract doesn't really help us at this point. We need assets. So, there is also that.

And with all trades, let's look and see at the end of the period what these two firsts and two seconds turn out to be. As we have noted it is a crap shoot the later you are in the draft.

Right now, it is Bub Carrington (meh) + 2029 first-round pick (second-most favorable from Portland, so another late first round pick) + 2028 second-round pick + 2030 second-round pick. I guess they are trying not to be competitive until 2029.

And we get the pleasure of watching Kuz, Poole and Brogdon eat up minutes next year. Smh.

I think next year we could have received a bigger haul. And we could have seen Deni play with Sarr and Bilal.

I think it was a bad trade and an ill-timed trade.

[Halcyon]

The front office thinks Deni has topped out or over performed last year, and I tend to agree. I guess we'll see who is right

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using RealGM mobile app

[dcPress]

Option A: Deni continues his upward trajectory, and has a negative impact on our W-L record. We need to have another 15 win season, unfortunately for him. Assuming Sarr shores up the defense, this could be an issue. And if kuzma didn’t attract any offers then Deni would be the logical choice to trade.

Option B: Deni plateaus. In this case it would make sense to sell high and trade him now. Even at his end of year level he could add too many wins if our interior D improves with Sarr.

Option C: Deni regresses or gets injured. Again a trade would make sense.

The mistake would be if Deni is really a top 3 guy on a championship team, in which case option A would be a tragic mistake. How likely is this? I dunno but if you look at his end of season game shooting logs:

Bos 3-11
Chi 9-15
Min 4-12
Tor 11-19
Por 7-12
Lal 2-5
Mil 10-17
Mia 5-12
Det 6-14
Bkn 5-10

So, poor shooting games against top tier teams Bos, Min, Lal, Mia and a good one against Mil. Interspersed with some good outings against bad teams Chi, Tor, Por and Bkn. This is only the last ~12% of the season but I’d expect better performances against better competition for a potential top 3 player (that you’d be foolish to get rid of).

[payitforward]

Suppose that instead of R2 picks down the line we'd gotten Portland's 34 & 40 this year.

At 34, we could have taken one of Furphy, Kolek, or Klintman.
Then, at 40, we could have taken one of Ighodaro, Bona, Djurisic, or KJ Simpson.

It's worth noting, by the way, that Portland did wind up trading both those picks; they brought Kolek & Ighodaro.

If we'd gotten 34 & 40 this year, I would feel quite differently about our having traded Deni.

I feel more or less the same way about our having traded the #52 pick to move up from 26 to 24. With that pick we could have added Ulrich Chomche, Cam Spencer, Kevin McCullar, or Hukporti.

With those 3 picks, I would feel like we'd gotten an incredible haul in this year's draft.

In fairness, I know little about George: perhaps he would have been gone at 26; perhaps he'll turn out a lot better than the guys who'd have been there for us at 26.

Let's say that at 26, we'd have missed out on Kyshaun George & taken Jonathan Mogbo.
At 34, let's say Tyler Kolek.
At 40 Adem Bono
At 52 Cam Spencer

Not a definitive statement nor a criticism -- just a reaction on my part.

Same reaction on both trades, I thought the idea was to take as-many swings as-possible, we instead placed ALL of our chips on George, not good GMing when you lose trades and wind up with fewer assets IMO, we left some good prospects on the table for other teams.

The “many swings as possible approach” is what some of us on this message board wanted. It isn’t necessarily the approach to rebuilding that the Zards FO prefers.

??
I'd say we're taking a lot of swings! How much more radically can you change a team in 12 months? From the team Dawkins took over, we still have Kuzma, Kispert & Davis. That's it.

Just because I laid out how we could have gotten 6 rookies out of the 2024 draft doesn't mean that any FO would actually do such a thing! Can you think of a draft when one team wound up with 10% of all the guys drafted? (Even though, as I typed that I couldn't help thinking, "we coulda been the first!!")

In any case, I'm sure Will negotiated as good a deal for Deni as he was able to get. & it didn't bring us a pick in this year's R2. So be it.

[doclinkin]

Right. I forget which thread it was but I’d said it made sense to add 3 players per year via the draft, to grow over time and not cheat the development of any new players we get. Trade forward when possible to add a pick in future years so you always get an extra at bat. But not sink your fortunes into any single draft year. Dollar cost averaging like.

Looks like we are stockpiling picks at about that rate. This year we picked up 3 while adding a future first and a couple 2nds down the road. Spread out. If we do that every year then over time we have the advantage over teams that stick on 2 picks or trade them away. We are not yet on the OKC level of warehousing and hoarding picks. But if you look at the years going forward it’s definitely a steadily growing asset.

I actually like that they are willing to move up to get a guy and use late picks to do so. Shows confidence in their scouting process. It’s yet to be seen if it works talent wise. But I’m happy we finally have a proactive plan and are sticking to it.

Yeah it stings to lose Deni. A player growing and on the best contract in the league. Still this crew inked him to that contract. The hope is they remain that creative with future extensions.

And Though it’s beside the point, I don’t hate on another asset we picked up. When Brogdon is healthy he meets and exceeds what Deni brings statistically. And as a veteran he is the type of player that young cats can learn from and model their game after. A tough player who defends passes and attacks. Ballhandling guard who shoots 40% from 3 and 80% from FT line. No fouls and like a 5:1 ast/to ratio. A player who can lead and direct teammates where to be.

Ok we all know he’s another potential trade asset more than a core piece. If he plays well then veteran teams may be interested in adding him for a playoff push. Which gives us one more asset for a trade. And or his contract helps fill the 90% cap which gives us flexibility to trade Kuz instead if teams are more interested there. And he’s an expiring contract which is a value for teams that need to dump space at the end of the year.

Still until then I don’t hate on the addition of a tough minded player who plays the right way and can model how to scrap to earn your place in the league. Who fills out the thinner guard corps instead of clogging the front court with another forward battling for developmental time.

[DCZards]

The “many swings as possible approach” is what some of us on this message board wanted. It isn’t necessarily the approach to rebuilding that the Zards FO prefers.

??
I'd say we're taking a lot of swings! How much more radically can you change a team in 12 months? From the team Dawkins took over, we still have Kuzma, Kispert & Davis. That's it.

Just because I laid out how we could have gotten 6 rookies out of the 2024 draft doesn't mean that any FO would actually do such a thing! Can you think of a draft when one team wound up with 10% of all the guys drafted? (Even though, as I typed that I couldn't help thinking, "we coulda been the first!!")

In any case, I'm sure Will negotiated as good a deal for Deni as he was able to get. & it didn't bring us a pick in this year's R2. So be it.

The discussion is about “swings” in the 2024 draft. Not the totality of what has happened since the new FO took over.

[TGW]

The process 2.0. That’s what this is. Anyone who hurts the tank will be ousted. That’s why Kuzma and Poole are on the team. They can market around these two bozos, make stupid bobbleheads, sell some jerseys to the loser fans who blindly support the team, and make a little bit of money while the team goes 19 and-a-billion. Why else would you consciously make a decision to have those two on the roster while trading away Deni. Deni was absolute kryptonite to their plans; him improving was phucking up the tank (and they probably didn’t see it coming, hence them resigning him). They saw the same statistics that Nate would post every week—when Deni was on the court, the team was respectable. When he sat, the team was a disgrace. Can’t have that type of player on a team where tanking is the main priority. Get him out of there.

Next year and probably the year after that, they are gunning for that most losses record. Winning games? Poooey. Major ick. Gotta amass those ping pong balls and picks. Only it didn’t work for the Sixers and it’s not going to work here.

[doclinkin]

Except that this year is critical. Next year too. Given that we have to be top 10 or top 8 in the lotto or miss out on franchise level all star talent. Deni is excellent. I don’t think he carries us out of the lotto. But the best way to vault to the top is to land a super star. Nothing else matters when it comes to championships. Until you have that guy everyone else is expendable.

[Silvie Lysandra]

The process 2.0. That’s what this is. Anyone who hurts the tank will be ousted. That’s why Kuzma and Poole are on the team. They can market around these two bozos, make stupid bobbleheads, sell some jerseys to the loser fans who blindly support the team, and make a little bit of money while the team goes 19 and-a-billion. Why else would you consciously make a decision to have those two on the roster while trading away Deni. Deni was absolute kryptonite to their plans; him improving was phucking up the tank (and they probably didn’t see it coming, hence them resigning him). They saw the same statistics that Nate would post every week—when Deni was on the court, the team was respectable. When he sat, the team was a disgrace. Can’t have that type of player on a team where tanking is the main priority. Get him out of there.

Next year and probably the year after that, they are gunning for that most losses record. Winning games? Poooey. Major ick. Gotta amass those ping pong balls and picks. Only it didn’t work for the Sixers and it’s not going to work here.

Yep, I realized that was the plan. Deni makes the team too good to have a shot at Bailey/Flagg. Period. I can't argue with it, because that's a strategic choice, and strategic choices have upsides and downsides. They know Deni is good, maybe, 3rd best player on a championship team good, but if you think that there's no path to building a championship team with him on the roster because Sarr is the last high pick you're ever going to make, then he has to go.

I disagree that the Process failed, though. Look at the 76ers before it. No higher than 43 wins in 10 seasons. No superstars since Iverson. Despite having insanely bad luck (who could ever have predicted Fultz's shot being Monstarred? Who could have predicted Ben Simmons being that much of a headcase), and literal sabotage, like literal "the NBA's anti-trust exemption should have been on the table" levels of rigging the team has a fading shot to win a ring simply because they have an MVP caliber player. Most Philly fans would take the 3 years of suck + 5 years of relevance over being a perpetual Ernie Grunfeld style nohope team.

If a few things break right development-wise (including of Deni himself), you're looking at a team that could sneak into the playin. And this was a year where we had 2 play-in teams in the top 3. I would not count on that again. Deni had to go so that Poole and Kuz could chuck us to a potential #1 pick. It sucks, but that's what happens when you have a super top-heavy league where the only thing that really matters is whether you have a First Team All-NBA level player (or at least 2-4 2nd team level guys).

[tontoz]

The process 2.0. That’s what this is. Anyone who hurts the tank will be ousted. That’s why Kuzma and Poole are on the team. They can market around these two bozos, make stupid bobbleheads, sell some jerseys to the loser fans who blindly support the team, and make a little bit of money while the team goes 19 and-a-billion. Why else would you consciously make a decision to have those two on the roster while trading away Deni. Deni was absolute kryptonite to their plans; him improving was phucking up the tank (and they probably didn’t see it coming, hence them resigning him). They saw the same statistics that Nate would post every week—when Deni was on the court, the team was respectable. When he sat, the team was a disgrace. Can’t have that type of player on a team where tanking is the main priority. Get him out of there.

Next year and probably the year after that, they are gunning for that most losses record. Winning games? Poooey. Major ick. Gotta amass those ping pong balls and picks. Only it didn’t work for the Sixers and it’s not going to work here.

The sixers blew their picks though. Fultz, Simmons, okafor. They drafted Milal Bridges and traded him to the Suns. Those were backbreaking mistakes.

[montestewart]

"when Deni was on the court, the team was respectable. When he sat, the team was a disgrace." That sounds like the kind of player who might turn a 10th seed into a contender or put a contender over the top, and with the contract, he would have been affordable to more teams. Seems like he should have netted more return, but if the result in 3-4 years is trying to realistically contend every year rather than trying to grab 10th seed, fine.

I'll be really happy if they eventually convert marginal Poole/Kuzma improvement/inflated stats into deadline trades for future firsts. Replace them with even worse "dynamic" veterans," and let the draft paicks gradually displace them while leaving their bloated salaries for payroll ballast. Brogdan''s good if he's at all healthy, and could be a useful 3G/mentor without hurting the tank, then draw a future pick at the deadline. Or he could be injured all year. Is his contract expiring?

[doclinkin]

Brogdan''s good if he's at all healthy, and could be a useful 3G/mentor without hurting the tank, then draw a future pick at the deadline. Or he could be injured all year. Is his contract expiring?

Yes. Expiring. And his cap figure makes it easier to trade Kuzma and still remain at 90% of the cap. So more flexibility both ways. You have to pay somebody. Not merely sucking and leeching off the tax spenders the way the old Clippers used to do.

Brogdons expiring deal can either help a contender or help a team that is looking at deadly cap penalties next year. Meanwhile he’s a solid player. So you can’t really judge the Deni deal until you see what we do with that asset.

[DCZards]

Brogdons expiring deal can either help a contender or help a team that is looking at deadly cap penalties next year. Meanwhile he’s a solid player. So you can’t really judge the Deni deal until you see what we do with that asset.

You really can’t judge the Deni deal until we see what the Zards do with ALL of the assets they got from the trade—Bub, the 2029 FRP, and the two SRPs.

[badinage]

Option A: Deni continues his upward trajectory, and has a negative impact on our W-L record. We need to have another 15 win season, unfortunately for him. Assuming Sarr shores up the defense, this could be an issue. And if kuzma didn’t attract any offers then Deni would be the logical choice to trade.

Option B: Deni plateaus. In this case it would make sense to sell high and trade him now. Even at his end of year level he could add too many wins if our interior D improves with Sarr.

Option C: Deni regresses or gets injured. Again a trade would make sense.

The mistake would be if Deni is really a top 3 guy on a championship team, in which case option A would be a tragic mistake. How likely is this? I dunno but if you look at his end of season game shooting logs:

Bos 3-11
Chi 9-15
Min 4-12
Tor 11-19
Por 7-12
Lal 2-5
Mil 10-17
Mia 5-12
Det 6-14
Bkn 5-10

So, poor shooting games against top tier teams Bos, Min, Lal, Mia and a good one against Mil. Interspersed with some good outings against bad teams Chi, Tor, Por and Bkn. This is only the last ~12% of the season but I’d expect better performances against better competition for a potential top 3 player (that you’d be foolish to get rid of).

A good player on a good team doesn’t have sh*t teammates — teammates who don’t pass so much as hand the ball off to another guy when, after dribbling for 10 seconds, they discover that they can’t get by their man (Poole), or who rarely find the open man, or who think their almost-openness is better (Kuzma), or who can’t dribble and drive and pass yet (Bilal), or who can shoot but not make plays (Kispert), or who shouldn’t even see courttime (everyone else).

So, yeah, not buying this argument.

[Kanyewest]

You guys are making it seem like we traded away prime Pippen.

I think posters have been posting here that Deni's stats in the 2nd half of the season were comparable to Jaylen Brown. Of course with Brown doing what he's done in the playoff puts him in a different tier but Deni is falling into the trajectory or at least projecting into a much better player based on his performance, finishing 6th in most improved player.

[badinage]

Brogdons expiring deal can either help a contender or help a team that is looking at deadly cap penalties next year. Meanwhile he’s a solid player. So you can’t really judge the Deni deal until you see what we do with that asset.

You really can’t judge the Deni deal until we see what the Zards do with ALL of the assets they got from the trade—Bub, the 2029 FRP, and the two SRPs.

That’s 5 years. Uh uh, no.

In three years, we’ll know a good deal. Not the trade in its entirety, but this first, main plank.

He’s staked a good bit of his name on this. Carrington has to ball out.

I know you don’t agree with this, so I’m wondering — what in your mind is success for Carrington in three years? What’s the comp?

[badinage]

The process 2.0. That’s what this is. Anyone who hurts the tank will be ousted. That’s why Kuzma and Poole are on the team. They can market around these two bozos, make stupid bobbleheads, sell some jerseys to the loser fans who blindly support the team, and make a little bit of money while the team goes 19 and-a-billion. Why else would you consciously make a decision to have those two on the roster while trading away Deni. Deni was absolute kryptonite to their plans; him improving was phucking up the tank (and they probably didn’t see it coming, hence them resigning him). They saw the same statistics that Nate would post every week—when Deni was on the court, the team was respectable. When he sat, the team was a disgrace. Can’t have that type of player on a team where tanking is the main priority. Get him out of there.

Next year and probably the year after that, they are gunning for that most losses record. Winning games? Poooey. Major ick. Gotta amass those ping pong balls and picks. Only it didn’t work for the Sixers and it’s not going to work here.

Yep, I realized that was the plan. Deni makes the team too good to have a shot at Bailey/Flagg. Period. I can't argue with it, because that's a strategic choice, and strategic choices have upsides and downsides. They know Deni is good, maybe, 3rd best player on a championship team good, but if you think that there's no path to building a championship team with him on the roster because Sarr is the last high pick you're ever going to make, then he has to go.

I disagree that the Process failed, though. Look at the 76ers before it. No higher than 43 wins in 10 seasons. No superstars since Iverson. Despite having insanely bad luck (who could ever have predicted Fultz's shot being Monstarred? Who could have predicted Ben Simmons being that much of a headcase), and literal sabotage, like literal "the NBA's anti-trust exemption should have been on the table" levels of rigging the team has a fading shot to win a ring simply because they have an MVP caliber player. Most Philly fans would take the 3 years of suck + 5 years of relevance over being a perpetual Ernie Grunfeld style nohope team.

If a few things break right development-wise (including of Deni himself), you're looking at a team that could sneak into the playin. And this was a year where we had 2 play-in teams in the top 3. I would not count on that again. Deni had to go so that Poole and Kuz could chuck us to a potential #1 pick. It sucks, but that's what happens when you have a super top-heavy league where the only thing that really matters is whether you have a First Team All-NBA level player (or at least 2-4 2nd team level guys).

This is just conjecture — idle speculation.

What has Dawkins said?

That’s what I want to know. And not just some vague puffball McKinsey statement about Deni and all he did and his growth blah blah and how they’re looking at a long rebuild and needed to do what’s best for the player. God. Spare me THAT sh*t.

But a thoughtful, reasoned, detailed statement that explains the thinking behind the trade, with a rigorously-defended substantiation of that argument and counters for each of an audience’s expected refutations.

When are we getting that?

[TheBlackCzar]

you not getting that because they don't care what you think....


Deni is so overrated by wizards homers its crazy..... Dude is ok, but all this improving just to still not sniff 20ppg in year 4, is like what are we talking about..

These trades are about fully resetting the franchise.... In my entire life they still havent won 50 games in a season...... Anything other than trying to go for the top is lame..... Don't care about 1st round flame outs and early exits.....

Raise ya'll standards and maybe these idiots will stop robbing the local fans with this garbage they've put on the floor for decades....


I'm not personally coming at you but I'm sick of this **** show.... About time they got a better vision than resigning old past there prime names to sell tickets....

[doclinkin]

You really can’t judge the Deni deal until we see what the Zards do with ALL of the assets they got from the trade—Bub, the 2029 FRP, and the two SRPs.

That’s 5 years. Uh uh, no.

In three years, we’ll know a good deal. Not the trade in its entirety, but this first, main plank.

He’s staked a good bit of his name on this. Carrington has to ball out.

I know you don’t agree with this, so I’m wondering — what in your mind is success for Carrington in three years? What’s the comp?

Well naturally if Carrington is producing better than Deni did in his 3rd year you can say it’s looking like we got the better end of the deal. That’s not a high bar since Deni was still sometimey in year 3, putting up per36 numbers of 12pt/8r/4a/1s/.5b on sub 30% shooting. He was young though and didn’t get his breakout season til his 4th year. Which benefited the Wiz who were able to extend him early at a discount.

Bear in mind young as he was Deni came into the league a half year older than Bub, who will be 19yrs old his entire rookie year. Avdija is a January baby. Bub is July.

If by year 3 Bub is only giving us 15pt/4r/6a/1s on average % 3pt shooting (36% or so) and getting to the FT line more than Avdijas 3 fta/36 I think you can say he’s on the right trajectory. Mix in a few double doubles in assists. With steady improvement in his 3pt shooting.

And if Bub breaks out by year 4, and the team is beginning to win with his output then yeah we did okay in the trade.

But the Malcolm Brogdon part we will know by the end of the year. So to me he counts towards the early assessment of the deal. If he even nets us a couple 2RP and Bub looks like a solid prospect then it looks like a strong deal.

[tontoz]

I'm over it. I will be rooting for Deni in Portland.

Our history has been holding on to guys too long, being too loyal. That hasn't gone well.