Magic and Bird Plus Minus Numbers

[Djoker]

From Squared2020.





Magic looks amazing and Bird looks solid.

Not huge samples but not too small either with about two seasons worth of games. In the unsampled games, the MOV is higher for both so I'd expect the ON numbers to go up a bit and the ON-OFF numbers to drop by a decent amount with a full sample.

[tsherkin]

Interesting, thanks for posting.

[OhayoKD]

From Squared2020.





Magic looks amazing and Bird looks solid.

Not huge samples but not too small either with about two seasons worth of games. In the unsampled games, the MOV is higher for both so I'd expect the ON numbers to go up a bit and the ON-OFF numbers to drop by a decent amount with a full sample.

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

[Djoker]

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.

[Colbinii]

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.

Yeah but they are past-prime Kareem.

The biggest thing +/- tells us is about utilization and impact within an environment.

It would be nice to get consecutive chunks (seasons) rather than random seasons if we want to draw any meaningful conclusions from the data.

[OhayoKD]

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.

Yeah but they are past-prime Kareem.

The biggest thing +/- tells us is about utilization and impact within an environment.

It would be nice to get consecutive chunks (seasons) rather than random seasons if we want to draw any meaningful conclusions from the data.

Getting full seasons or full chunks of seasons is a rarity. Consecutive seasons is pretty greedy. No everyone retires mid-way lol

[OhayoKD]

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.

I don't remember the years, but IIRC, squared circle posted rotation sheets for Magic and it looked like platooning to me.

[homecourtloss]

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.

I don't remember the years, but IIRC, squared circle posted rotation sheets for Magic and it looked like platooning to me.

Spoiler:

First of all, thank you for sharing all this dad I wish you could’ve easily put behind a pay wall.

Secondly, I see why Kareem turns out so nicely in 1985 and in 1988 in your RAPM sets. I remember the rotations and dash in these two years, what percentage of Kareem’s minutes would you say were on the floor with Magic’s?

Third, mods—can we sticky this thread?

I don't know that percentage, but here's the estimated playing time from the stint data I've created. The more YELLOW a part of the graph, the higher the percentage of time the player was on the floor. The more BLUE a part of the graph, the less the percentage of time the player was on the floor.

Left to right is seconds elapsed in a game: 0 : Tip-Off, 720 : Start of 2nd Period, 1440: Halftime, 2160: Start of 4th Period, 2880: End of regulation (No overtime shown... it'll all look blue)

1980 LA Lakers


1985 LA Lakers


1988 LA Lakers

Love how visually-appealing and intuitive these heatmap charts are!

Could you btw elaborate why you personally despise RAPM? Based on my limited understanding of how it's actually calculated the standard errors are very large so it's a not a very precise measure, especially single-season data (so not a big fan myself when people use it for single season comparisons), but it's pretty much the best there is when it's comes to adjusting purely +/- data for multicollinearity ?

What do you mean with the ratings of 25's and 33's?

(many stints are 2-3 offensive possessions leading to ratings on the 25's and 33's -- and nothing in-between

[One_and_Done]

Take these fan made stats well salted.

[The Explorer]

Take these fan made stats well salted.

What do you think is wrong with it specifically?

[O_6]

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic

I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.

I appreciate all these old school Plus/Minus threads, interesting stuff.

This "'1985 Lakers On/Off" split with different on-court variations (Kareem/Magic ON, Worthy OFF) is really cool.

I wish we had similar data for the 1986 Celtics as not only was that Bird's peak, but because their frontcourt rotation was absurd. Walton/Parish/McHale/Bird... I've always wondered what the best mix of the 3 was for the Celtics that year. I've kind of assumed that Walton actually might've been an upgrade to Parish on a per minute basis.

[trex_8063]

From Squared2020.





Magic looks amazing and Bird looks solid.

Not huge samples but not too small either with about two seasons worth of games. In the unsampled games, the MOV is higher for both so I'd expect the ON numbers to go up a bit and the ON-OFF numbers to drop by a decent amount with a full sample.

I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.

Another factor may be the years included: all of the years are prime for Magic, but nothing after '88 is prime for Bird. Plus there are 23 games from Magic's consensus peak year ['87], while there are no games from Bird's consensus peak ['86].

[trex_8063]

Take these fan made stats well salted.

What do you think is wrong with it specifically?

I'm guessing that it didn't rate Bird as favourably as he'd hoped/expected.

@ O&D: these aren't "fan made". It's play-by-play tracking. The numbers are what they are ("it is what it is", as my dad would say).

[One_and_Done]

Take these fan made stats well salted.

What do you think is wrong with it specifically?

I'm guessing that it didn't rate Bird as favourably as he'd hoped/expected.

@ O&D: these aren't "fan made". It's play-by-play tracking. The numbers are what they are ("it is what it is", as my dad would say).

Are they officially sanctioned, collated and audited? Or are they just one avid fan who is 'well respected'?

I don't care what they say or don't say about Bird. I have explained before the problem with these amateur stats people produce.

[OhayoKD]

Are they officially sanctioned, collated and audited? Or are they just one avid fan who is 'well respected'?

I don't care what they say or don't say about Bird. I have explained before the problem with these amateur stats people produce.

It's not like the NBA audited their own stat-keeping from this period

What do you think is wrong with it specifically?

I'm guessing that it didn't rate Bird as favourably as he'd hoped/expected.

@ O&D: these aren't "fan made". It's play-by-play tracking. The numbers are what they are ("it is what it is", as my dad would say)

Pretty sure O&D prefers Magic. They also made a similar comment in the WOWY thread that had Magic come out ahead of and Jordan's on/off threads which had the opposite.

Guessing it's a matter of principle and not player preference

[SpreeS]

Lets compare possessions by % between 1985 LAL vs 2024 LAL

Magic/Kareem on .610 (+16.2)
Magic on/Kareem off .167 (-2.1)
Magic off/Kareem on .082 (-2.6)
Magic off/Kareem off .140 (-16.6)

vs

Lebron/Davis on .434 (+3.8)
Lebron on/Davis off .191 (+5.4)
Lebron off/Davis on .249 (+0.3)
Lebron off/Davis off .126 (-16.4)

So if we adapt Magic/KAJ playing combinations to Lebron/Davis, Magic on/off decreases around 24% (from +23.5 to +17.9).

[One_and_Done]

Are they officially sanctioned, collated and audited? Or are they just one avid fan who is 'well respected'?

I don't care what they say or don't say about Bird. I have explained before the problem with these amateur stats people produce.

It's not like the NBA audited their own stat-keeping from this period

What do you think is wrong with it specifically?

I'm guessing that it didn't rate Bird as favourably as he'd hoped/expected.

@ O&D: these aren't "fan made". It's play-by-play tracking. The numbers are what they are ("it is what it is", as my dad would say)

Pretty sure O&D prefers Magic. They also made a similar comment in the WOWY thread that had Magic come out ahead of and Jordan's on/off threads which had the opposite.

Guessing it's a matter of principle and not player preference

As noted, I explained my reasons in depth in the WOWY thread. This is not like official stats at all.

[70sFan]

Funny enough, Squared now works at +/- tracking officially for the NBA, I contacted him not too long ago. So yes, he got this task from the league this year and they will use his stats as their official ones when he finishes. Funny how it turned out, right?

[OhayoKD]

Are they officially sanctioned, collated and audited? Or are they just one avid fan who is 'well respected'?

I don't care what they say or don't say about Bird. I have explained before the problem with these amateur stats people produce.

It's not like the NBA audited their own stat-keeping from this period

I'm guessing that it didn't rate Bird as favourably as he'd hoped/expected.

@ O&D: these aren't "fan made". It's play-by-play tracking. The numbers are what they are ("it is what it is", as my dad would say)

Pretty sure O&D prefers Magic. They also made a similar comment in the WOWY thread that had Magic come out ahead of and Jordan's on/off threads which had the opposite.

Guessing it's a matter of principle and not player preference

As noted, I explained my reasons in depth in the WOWY thread. This is not like official stats at all.

The problem is the official stats weren't handled better:
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Watch on YouTube

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I can understand general skepticism considering the volume of flat-out misinformation that has been given a plaform(including on/off), but to my knowledge Squared hasn't been caught making up data. Dubious interpretations yes("average shooter"), and an inexplicably bizarre end to their forum stint, but I am not aware of them messing with the numbers themselves.

[One_and_Done]

I'm not going to re-explain it, because you are obviously familiar with my reasons and can go back over them. It is false to say official stats back then 'weren't any better', for the reasons I gave.