Celtics Salary and Tax Talk

[cl2117]

I really hope we ride this thing until the wheels fall off and then, and only then, do we start to restructure the roster with a longer term focus in mind. I appreciate that could mean ownership picks up heavy operating losses for a couple years, but having a team that would likely be championship favorites for 2-3 more years will earn them back that value and then some in capital gains terms.

People say that we don't have owners that can foot that bill in the same way Steve Ballmer can, to which I say "bull". There are a myriad of ways that these incredibly rich men can do so. The issue is that they don't want to sacrifice any of the gains they've already made in terms of overall value of the team growing since they've purchased it, which isn't the same as saying they "can't" afford the bills.

Again keep in mind they bought this team for $360 million in 2002 and are poised to sell it for probably well over $5 billion in 2024. And all along they way they generated a healthy operating profit in most seasons. The **** are gonna easily make over $4 billion on their initial investment alone.

This is by no means a situation of "can't" pay it's "won't" pay.

All that being said, assuming they do ultimately have to drop below the 2nd apron, Jrue seems like the clear odd man out to me. I think a trade where they get back 2 solid rotational role players and hope the overall depth and improvement from current core/recently added young guys, will be enough to keep them firmly as contenders while they reset the deck a bit to allow them to continue spending during the Jays' prime.

Orlando is my ideal team. WCJ plus one of their guards (Black or Anthony) for Jrue gives you a Horford heir apparent, a guard to fill out the rotation and shaves enough money off of the near future that with some other moves they can easily dip below the apron.

Assuming Horford retires by then and Springer doesn't come back:

White/ Pritchard/ Black
Brown/
Tatum/ Hauser/ Scheierman
WCJ / Watson/ Walsh
KP/ Tillman/ Queta/ Kornet

Orlando on the other side of it gets a straw that can stir their very promising drink. They've locked in their young stars on lower level max contracts, which would mean they can afford to pay Jrue until the end of his. He meshes really well with what they want to do as a distributor, shooter and lockdown defender. I think Brad might have to kick in a little something extra surprisingly enough just becuase of the kind of money on those final years for Jrue, but still think they come out the other side in pretty good shape.

Still though, gotta hope that we've got the kind of owners that aren't just going to take all their earnings and sail off into the sunset leaving us holding the bag. Spend some of that money on this team because it deserves it as do the fans (and you'll still be filthy stinking rich regardless).

[chrisab123]

Every time I hear about the sale, it makes me hope more and more than JWH never gets his hands on the Celtics. Really would not like to see Tatum suit up for the Lakers or Knicks because of money.

[shackles10]

I really hope we ride this thing until the wheels fall off and then, and only then, do we start to restructure the roster with a longer term focus in mind. I appreciate that could mean ownership picks up heavy operating losses for a couple years, but having a team that would likely be championship favorites for 2-3 more years will earn them back that value and then some in capital gains terms.

People say that we don't have owners that can foot that bill in the same way Steve Ballmer can, to which I say "bull". There are a myriad of ways that these incredibly rich men can do so. The issue is that they don't want to sacrifice any of the gains they've already made in terms of overall value of the team growing since they've purchased it, which isn't the same as saying they "can't" afford the bills.

Again keep in mind they bought this team for $360 million in 2002 and are poised to sell it for probably well over $5 billion in 2024. And all along they way they generated a healthy operating profit in most seasons. The **** are gonna easily make over $4 billion on their initial investment alone.

This is by no means a situation of "can't" pay it's "won't" pay.

All that being said, assuming they do ultimately have to drop below the 2nd apron, Jrue seems like the clear odd man out to me. I think a trade where they get back 2 solid rotational role players and hope the overall depth and improvement from current core/recently added young guys, will be enough to keep them firmly as contenders while they reset the deck a bit to allow them to continue spending during the Jays' prime.

Orlando is my ideal team. WCJ plus one of their guards (Black or Anthony) for Jrue gives you a Horford heir apparent, a guard to fill out the rotation and shaves enough money off of the near future that with some other moves they can easily dip below the apron.

Assuming Horford retires by then and Springer doesn't come back:

White/ Pritchard/ Black
Brown/
Tatum/ Hauser/ Scheierman
WCJ / Watson/ Walsh
KP/ Tillman/ Queta/ Kornet

Orlando on the other side of it gets a straw that can stir their very promising drink. They've locked in their young stars on lower level max contracts, which would mean they can afford to pay Jrue until the end of his. He meshes really well with what they want to do as a distributor, shooter and lockdown defender. I think Brad might have to kick in a little something extra surprisingly enough just becuase of the kind of money on those final years for Jrue, but still think they come out the other side in pretty good shape.

Still though, gotta hope that we've got the kind of owners that aren't just going to take all their earnings and sail off into the sunset leaving us holding the bag. Spend some of that money on this team because it deserves it as do the fans (and you'll still be filthy stinking rich regardless).

I'm not sure Orlando want to do that and put themselves into apron situations themselves? If they move up the contender hierarchy it's going to cost them as their young players will start to expire off of their deals that are keeping them below the aprons. Then they've got to choose to either lose those guys and stay below or become more expensive to give it a chance. I think that alone will depend on how close they end up getting to a title before those decisions are made, but I don't think adding Jrue's higher salary (and it'd have to be higher than what they're giving up for it to make sense for us savings wise) would even be considered by them. Especially considering he'll be a year or two older by then.

I don't disagree on Jrue (or KP and possibly both) could be the sacrificial lamb(s), but I'm really struggling to come up with what type of team we could trade with, let alone a specific team. We could always get lucky, but it might have us attaching assets to get rid of salary and that makes this whole aspect of the CBA even more ridiculous for contenders. Not only can you no longer afford to contend, but you now have to get rid of the things that would help you rebuild (young players/draft picks).

[Hal14]

Orlando is my ideal team. WCJ plus one of their guards (Black or Anthony) for Jrue gives you a Horford heir apparent, a guard to fill out the rotation and shaves enough money off of the near future that with some other moves they can easily dip below the apron.

Anthony and Black are the same person. Assuming you meant Black or Suggs?

Or did you mean Anthony Black or Cole Anthony? Either of those guys would be a massive downgrade from Jrue Holiday.

And WCJ is a downgrade from Horford. That would be a bad trade for us. Doesn't seem like Horford is retiring anytime soon either.

And I don't see why Orlando would do that. Those young guards they have fit their timeline better than Jrue does. They're led by a couple of 21 year old forwards..they seem to be playing the long game..develop their young core and slowly build into a team that could possibly contend a few yrs from now (by that time Jrue will probably be retired).

[cl2117]

I'm not sure Orlando want to do that and put themselves into apron situations themselves? If they move up the contender hierarchy it's going to cost them as their young players will start to expire off of their deals that are keeping them below the aprons. Then they've got to choose to either lose those guys and stay below or become more expensive to give it a chance. I think that alone will depend on how close they end up getting to a title before those decisions are made, but I don't think adding Jrue's higher salary (and it'd have to be higher than what they're giving up for it to make sense for us savings wise) would even be considered by them. Especially considering he'll be a year or two older by then.

I don't disagree on Jrue (or KP and possibly both) could be the sacrificial lamb(s), but I'm really struggling to come up with what type of team we could trade with, let alone a specific team. We could always get lucky, but it might have us attaching assets to get rid of salary and that makes this whole aspect of the CBA even more ridiculous for contenders. Not only can you no longer afford to contend, but you now have to get rid of the things that would help you rebuild (young players/draft picks).

Orlando would be adding less than $10m worth of salary to their overall cap hit and they're $25m under the 1st apron as is, so they're well placed to take on a bigger salary in the near term (even next summer when Wagner's new extension kicks in). They'll have to give extensions to Banchero/Suggs, but since they're pegged as rookie extensions it's still totally manageable. It's not a slam dunk deal for them, which is why I thought Brad might have to kick in something extra, but if a guy like Banchero takes a big jump they could climb incredibly high in a really weak East. Jrue is exactly the kind of veteran guard who could elevate a younger talented core beyond what they each bring individually.

And it's been 15 years since they've made it past the first round in the playoffs, I definitely could see them taking on Jrue if they felt they could get them to the ECF or beyond.

You're right though I think we could end up having to pay to get rid of salary and not even get back as usable roleplayers as WCJ et. al. It's really tough to try to assess how these new apron rules are going to impact these kinds of deals, I'm pretty pessimistic about what it means for us, but trying to enjoy the here and now rather than worry about that.

Anthony and Black are the same person. Assuming you meant Black or Suggs?

Or did you mean Anthony Black or Cole Anthony? Either of those guys would be a massive downgrade from Jrue Holiday.

And WCJ is a downgrade from Horford. That would be a bad trade for us. Doesn't seem like Horford is retiring anytime soon either.

And I don't see why Orlando would do that. Those young guards they have fit their timeline better than Jrue does. They're led by a couple of 21 year old forwards..they seem to be playing the long game..develop their young core and slowly build into a team that could possibly contend a few yrs from now (by that time Jrue will probably be retired).

No I meant Cole Anthony or Anthony Black. And of course they're a downgrade from Jrue, as would be WCJ from Horford (who you can't realistically count on playing into his 40s), but you're not going to find a trade for a an expensive 34/35 year old guard that's going to actually bring you back higher value. That's just not a realistic expectation. The goal has to be to reset the clock on the more onerous repeater taxes etc., while still adding some depth pieces that hopefully can help mitigate the talent downgrade. There really is no other option.

Orlando would do it to accelerate their timeline. To your point above, Jrue is a big upgrade for them and one you wouldn't normally be able to land for WCJ/Anthony if not for the C's needing to make moves for savings reasons. Realistically I wouldn't see this happening until next summer and it'd be heavily predicated on the likes of Banchero/ Wagner/ Suggs taking big jumps to the point where Jrue might genuinely be the missing piece to make them a contender in the East. If that weren't to happen then it wouldn't make sense for them, but then I'd still try to target any other young team that can afford Jrue that wants to make a jump. They get the best player, while the C's get savings and some lesser depth.

[redslastlaugh]

Bobby Marks tweeted a breakdown of future-looking repeater tax rates that I haven’t seen posted.

Read on Twitter

[ConstableGeneva]

Bobby Marks tweeted a breakdown of future-looking repeater tax rates that I haven’t seen posted.

Read on Twitter

Kinda confusing tweet. Those aren't actual numbers of Boston, right? Just a comparison of how a repeater tax team pays much more than a regular tax team?

Spotrac has the Cs at $25.76M over the tax line in 2024-25 for a tax bill of $65.6M (14 guaranteed contracts). In 2025-26, they're $37.62M over the tax line for a tax bill of $219.39M (9 guaranteed).

[redslastlaugh]

For 2025-26, Marks I think is filling the roster with five vet min contracts to get to a tax projection for a mandated 14 man roster.

Bobby Marks tweeted a breakdown of future-looking repeater tax rates that I haven’t seen posted.

Read on Twitter

Kinda confusing tweet. Those aren't actual numbers of Boston, right? Just a comparison of how a repeater tax team pays much more than a regular tax team?

Spotrac has the Cs at $25.76M over the tax line in 2024-25 for a tax bill of $65.6M (14 guaranteed contracts). In 2025-26, they're $37.62M over the tax line for a tax bill of $219.39M (9 guaranteed).

[Bill Lumbergh]

It just reinforces that we need to go all in to get another one this year. Shedding salary may well begin next summer.

[bigfoot_cryptozoology]

- It's over for Pags taking on majority ownership, as it would have already occurred, if it was happening...

- Irv and the rest of the Grousbecks are going to seek out the largest offer, not necessarily the best owner...

- Seems to be no indication that the Pizzutis, Linda and John are at all interested...

- If the team is sold, can't imagine the new ownership group keeping Wyc around as governor until 2026 never mind 2028. They will
want their guy in charge, making decisions.

- You have to expect some type of cost cutting occurring in future years until the new owners roll out their own
arena revenue stream.

I posted this earlier, and this type of Auerbachian scenario intrigues me more, than dealing Porzingis, where you would
have to send out a boatload of Draft Picks, for a team to take on his contract...

I think the following scenario could play out after the season:

Celtics win the Title.

Celtics trade Holiday (age: Will be 35 at the start of the 2025 season and contract: 32 million) to a Western Conference
contender for Cap Relief and a young player/prospect/Draft Pick - Perhaps someone like GS, since they seem to be all
in with Curry or Houston, Denver, Clippers, etc.)

Celtics draft a combo guard like the semi-intriguing Hunter Sallis.

Celtics elevate the blossoming Hauser to the Starting Lineup.

Celtics upgrade Walker's contract and he becomes a valued rotational player.

Celtics also sign Peterson to a standard contract.

[ConstableGeneva]

Why would the Celtics need to trade a "boatload of draft picks" to offload Porzingis when he's expiring after this season? Even less so if he gets through the season relatively healthy and productive.

[Fierce1]

There's really no need to trade KP.

He's expiring in 2026.

Right now it's all speculation.

But I find it hard to believe the Celtic owners will not want a 3-peat if the Cs repeat this season.

If it's up to me, Jrue Holiday goes first, not KP.

The Celtics are just on another level with a healthy KP.

[bigfoot_cryptozoology]

Why would the Celtics need to trade a "boatload of draft picks" to offload Porzingis when he's expiring after this season? Even less so if he gets through the season relatively healthy and productive.

I stand corrected on that point alone, thought he was under contract for more years...
Still, if he functions at an optimum level in the playoffs, I'd be more inclined in bringing him back on
a similar contract and dealing Holiday. Horford's age, ground bound 6-8 Tillman, Kornet is playing so well,
another club could offer him a better contract. Porzingis provides them with that extra oomph they need.
But with an expiring contract, if he is nolo contendere in the playoffs, he's likely the one that gets whacked.
That unfortunately doesn't solve the problem of a quality Big Man needed to be a dynasty. That issue may require
the trading of Holiday...

As far as my other points, I like the idea of moving Hauser into the starting lineup; hopefully the game
slows down for Baylor and Peterson continues to be solid.

[redslastlaugh]

Late last summer the Globe reported the Celtics expect to complete the sale by late 2024 to early 2025. Now we’re into calendar 2025 and things have been pretty quiet for a while. I wonder what’s going on behind the scenes.

Based on how things look from my vantage point, I think after this season, given the tax AND 2nd apron repeater penalties, I think we’re going to have to retool the roster. I think there are 10 guys most likely to stick past this season and into the longer term:

1. Jayson Tatum
2. Jaylen Brown
3. Sam Hauser
4. Payton Pritchard
5. Neemias Queta
6. Jordan Walsh

Returning if they can come to agreement to re-sign
7. Al Horford
8. Luke Kornet

And that leaves
Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis
Of these at least ONE, most likely TWO, but NOT ALL THREE

So let’s say for the roster
9. One guard
10. Porzingis

Obviously the book is not closed on Tillman or Scheierman, both are signed to return, but seem extraneous at this moment. Anton Watson and Drew Peterson are eligible to return on a 2-way. JD Davison is out of 2-way eligibility.

In this analysis, we’ll have at least 4 roster spots and at least 1 two-way spot open going into next season. It’s going to be interesting how they handle the decision around KP, Jrue and White, given the financial situation they are facing.

[snowman]

Late last summer the Globe reported the Celtics expect to complete the sale by late 2024 to early 2025. Now we’re into calendar 2025 and things have been pretty quiet for a while. I wonder what’s going on behind the scenes.

Based on how things look from my vantage point, I think after this season, given the tax AND 2nd apron repeater penalties, I think we’re going to have to retool the roster. I think there are 10 guys most likely to stick past this season and into the longer term:

1. Jayson Tatum
2. Jaylen Brown
3. Sam Hauser
4. Payton Pritchard
5. Neemias Queta
6. Jordan Walsh

Returning if they can come to agreement to re-sign
7. Al Horford
8. Luke Kornet

And that leaves
Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis
Of these at least ONE, most likely TWO, but NOT ALL THREE

So let’s say for the roster
9. One guard
10. Porzingis

Obviously the book is not closed on Tillman or Scheierman, both are signed to return, but seem extraneous at this moment. Anton Watson and Drew Peterson are eligible to return on a 2-way. JD Davison is out of 2-way eligibility.

In this analysis, we’ll have at least 4 roster spots and at least 1 two-way spot open going into next season. It’s going to be interesting how they handle the decision around KP, Jrue and White, given the financial situation they are facing.

I expect the CBA to be changed before Boston will make major changes to the roster. New TV contracts will help with that. As far a the players go:
Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, Hauser, Scheierman, Walsh and Queta are the main stays going forward.
White is going nowhere. He is at worse the third best player on the team.
Holiday would not have been resigned if the plan wasn't to keep him around.
Porzingis will be kept around at least through the end of his contract and probably extended after that. Brad will work it out dollar wise considering how many games he misses.
Al will be given a contract of around 10 mil a year until he decides to retire, which doesn't seem anytime soon.
Kornet will be brought back for at least one more year, probably longer.

That leaves Tillman and Springer, along with the open 15th spot. I expect both to be gone by next season. Peterson should get one of the open spots, Davison, in my mind, is not an NBA player and Watson isn't ready.

all of this is just MHO anyway.

[redslastlaugh]

Following the trade of Jaden Springer, spotrac has updated the teams cap sheet. We are now only $3.625 million above the 2nd apron line.

[Triple M]

We should try to get under 2md apron if possible. I think we get under If we trade Queta and Tilman but i dont know how we can sign 3 players and still remain under. If we converted JD and Peterson does that count vs the Cap?

[Mr_Mojo_Risin]

We should try to get under 2md apron if possible. I think we get under If we trade Queta and Tilman but i dont know how we can sign 3 players and still remain under. If we converted JD and Peterson does that count vs the Cap?

If 3 players sign for $1 each....

We won't get under the tax without trading Al or someone.

[phincsfan]

I’m definitely no cap expert but the C’s are already over the luxury tax threshold which means we’re in repeater tax land anyway. Would have to slash major clams to get under that which is unlikely. The only benefit of getting below the 2nd apron is to lift the trade restrictions but even if they do any moves they make will upend the roster during a very good season. Trading Springer saved 15mil which is big so how much can they save if they trade XMan, since he’s pretty non-existent at this point?

[djFan71]

I’m definitely no cap expert but the C’s are already over the luxury tax threshold which means we’re in repeater tax land anyway. Would have to slash major clams to get under that which is unlikely. The only benefit of getting below the 2nd apron is to lift the trade restrictions but even if they do any moves they make will upend the roster during a very good season. Trading Springer saved 15mil which is big so how much can they save if they trade XMan, since he’s pretty non-existent at this point?

2nd apron matters beyond trades, though.

If teams remain in the second apron for any three years in a five-year period, their upcoming first-round draft pick is automatically moved to the end of the first round.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/what-is-the-second-apron-explanation-nba-bm06/

So, logging one of those 3 years this year hurts a bit, without a plan to get out of it. I'm sure they stay in it since we're contenders and deal with it in the summer, but it's not nothing being just a few $M over.

For example, if a team's above the second apron on the last day of the 2024-25 season, its 2032 first-rounder will be frozen, and the earliest the pick could be traded would be after the 2027-28 season. However, if a team remains above the second apron in at least two of the four years after having its pick frozen, that frozen pick moves to the bottom of the first round, no matter how poorly the team performs

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/2940429

Not sure they're the most up to date links, but there's definitely a repeater 2nd apron penalty.