Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Average wins: 53.7
A year after surpassing their projection by an incredible 18 wins, Oklahoma City now boasts the highest average wins for any team in the league. With a deep, young roster augmented by the offseason additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are the only team to project in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating.
2. Memphis Grizzlies
Average wins: 51.1
Despite Ja Morant's 25-game suspension, the Grizzlies were one of the biggest projection outliers last season, beginning with the West's best average wins total. (Steven Adams' season-ending knee injury, announced after I published projections, pushed them to second behind Minnesota.)
Memphis instead dealt with a historic amount of injuries en route to the lottery. This time around, after drafting college standout Zach Edey to fill the hole at center left by the Adams trade, it is near the top of the West again. The core that led Memphis to 50-plus wins the two previous seasons is still intact, and last year helped the Grizzlies develop young depth.
3. Dallas Mavericks
Average wins: 49.7
The Mavericks won at a 55-game pace after the All-Star break and subsequently reached the NBA Finals, so expectations might be higher in Dallas. It's worth noting that the Mavericks were unusually healthy down the stretch, with Kyrie Irving playing every game from Feb. 5 through Dallas locking up the fifth seed. Something similar to last year's 50-win finish is reasonable, and the Mavericks' 49.5-win total at ESPN BET is nearly identical to this mark.
4. Sacramento Kings
Average wins: 49.4
After averaging 47 wins over the past two seasons, the Kings have their most talented roster yet after moving Harrison Barnes for DeRozan in a sign-and-trade. The question is whether these players will fit as well on the court given DeRozan, like De'Aaron Fox and sixth man Malik Monk, is best with the ball in his hands. I remain skeptical the Kings will finish quite this high in the West.
5. Denver Nuggets
Average wins: 47.4
Based on plus-minus data, Caldwell-Pope deserved a considerable amount of the credit for a Denver defense that ranked eighth in defensive rating last season after finishing 15th in 2022-23. So although the Nuggets are still projected as the NBA's third-best offense, their defense rating is worse than average.
Additionally, Denver could be hard-pressed to overachieve again compared to its point differential. The Nuggets won 3.4 more games than expected based on their differential in 2022-23 and 2.7 more last season -- clutch domination historically tends to be hard to maintain.
6. Phoenix Suns
Average wins: 45.4
The veteran Suns are another team that could take a step back due to age. With a weighted age of 29.9 at season's end, Phoenix was the league's third-oldest team last season. Injuries tend to come with age, and while Bradley Beal played just 53 games, Kevin Durant (75) played 20 games more than any other season since suffering an Achilles rupture in 2019.
7. Golden State Warriors
Average wins: 44.8
Relative positioning will be more important than absolute wins for the Warriors. Golden State's 46 wins last season were just three shy of the Suns, who avoided the play-in entirely. The Warriors, instead, were one-and-done in the play-in after having to open on the road at Sacramento. Golden State was still stronger in terms of point differential, finishing seventh in the West -- ahead of the Finals-bound Mavericks.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Average wins: 42.7
Although the Friday's trade slightly bumped up their projection, the Timberwolves rating barely better than .500 on average a year after finishing second in the West with 56 wins -- albeit also two years after going 42-40 in Rudy Gobert's first season with the team -- remains the most surprising result.
Adding both DiVincenzo and Randle helps Minnesota's questionable depth, but at the cost of top-end talent. Towns projects better than either of the two players the Timberwolves got in return.
9. New Orleans Pelicans
Average wins: 41.6
There's a lot to like about the Pelicans' roster, which is deep on perimeter players after their offseason trade for Dejounte Murray. The issue is at center, and while I've projected plenty of minutes there for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans' other options -- journeyman Daniel Theis, undersized Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, two-way contributor Trey Jemison and rookies Karlo Matkovic and Yves Missi -- are lacking. As a result, New Orleans is predicted for a downturn from last season's 49 wins, albeit with the caveat that they too could easily upgrade midseason.
10. Los Angeles Lakers
Average wins: 40.7
This projection reflects the same factors that made the Lakers one of my most likely teams to decline in terms of wins from last season's 47. The Lakers finished 11th in the West in point differential (plus-0.6), which would typically translate into 42 or 43 wins. Add in the difficulty of veterans Anthony Davis and LeBron James matching last season's games played and the Lakers could be fighting just to make the play-in.
11. Houston Rockets
Average wins: 40.4
Like the Magic, Houston's projection is held back by multiyear stats for the team's young prospects, who developed quickly during the 2023-24 season as the Rockets reached .500. Where Houston finishes in the crowded West standings this season shouldn't have much impact on the franchise's bright outlook for the future.
12. LA Clippers
Average wins: 36.3
Clippers coach Ty Lue told ESPN's Ohm Youngmisuk last month he "can't wait to prove everybody wrong." Well, everybody includes these projections, which have the Clippers hard-pressed to stay in the play-in race after losing George.
As noted in my piece on teams most likely to decline, the Clippers' age and health were concerns even before replacing George with role players Nicolas Batum and Derrick Jones Jr. Players will be forced to create more of their own offense, as the Clippers' expected rotation had a projected usage rate 14% lower than league average. No other team was more than 6% below average.
13. San Antonio Spurs
Average wins: 33.5
Despite a strong individual projection for Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs' forecast falls short of their 36.5 over/under total. San Antonio's final record will depend in large part on how much coach Gregg Popovich prioritizes developing No. 4 pick Stephon Castle, and recent first-rounders Malaki Braham, Jeremy Sochan and Blake Wesley, as opposed to playing veterans who can help more now but are less likely to be part of the Spurs' promising future.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Average wins: 32.8
After losing 61 games last season, the Blazers added veteran help to their roster in Avdija but return 15 incumbent players overall. Lottery pick Donovan Clingan is the only other newcomer on a full NBA contract. Better health could help Portland be more competitive after no player played more than 72 games for the team last season. The Blazers might not mind accumulating lottery odds in a strong draft, however.
15. Utah Jazz
Average wins: 29.2
Having pivoted to young talent after the trade deadline each of the past two seasons, the Jazz have fewer veterans left on the roster to help keep them competitive over the first half of the season. Even with an extension for Lauri Markkanen, Utah has the West's lowest projection because of a youthful core of guards featuring recent first-round picks Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George and Cody Williams.
