Retro Player of the Year 1996-97 UPDATE — Michael Jordan

[70sFan]

Hakeem dropped off and out of his prime after 96

Another example of completely random cutoff of someone's prime. What makes you believe that Hakeem was in his prime in 1996 but not in 1997? What evidences you have for that?

[One_and_Done]

Hakeem dropped off and out of his prime after 96

Another example of completely random cutoff of someone's prime. What makes you believe that Hakeem was in his prime in 1996 but not in 1997? What evidences you have for that?

His stats started to drop off, and at the time watching him it felt like he'd lost a step. Barkley has spoken before about how when he got to the Rockets Hakeem and Clyde weren't in their primes anymore, and how he didn't even blame Pippen for wanting to bail on them 2 years later because they had gotten fat and old.

That said, I rated Hakeem top 5 this season, and I don't think he had a precipitous fall off, but it was enough that I can't consider him for the top spot.

[70sFan]

Hakeem dropped off and out of his prime after 96

Another example of completely random cutoff of someone's prime. What makes you believe that Hakeem was in his prime in 1996 but not in 1997? What evidences you have for that?

His stats started to drop off, and at the time watching him it felt like he'd lost a step. Barkley has spoken before about how when he got to the Rockets Hakeem and Clyde weren't in their primes anymore, and how he didn't even blame Pippen for wanting to bail on them 2 years later because they had gotten fat and old.

That said, I rated Hakeem top 5 this season, and I don't think he had a precipitous fall off, but it was enough that I can't consider him for the top spot.

By "his stats" you mean 1.5 pp75 on the exact same efficiency in a season when Houston added Charles Barkley (another volume inside scorer)? Is that it?

You also ignore how well he played in the playoffs, against Seattle he supposedly couldn't deal with. I don't know, I don't see any strong evidences on your side.

[One_and_Done]

Hakeem's scoring dropped, both per game and per 100, the lowest volume since 92. His Ortg dropped, the lowest he'd had since 1990. His rp100 was the lowest ever. His bp100 was the lowest ever. Stats aren't everything, but there seems to be ample evidence to support the observation that he had started to drop off.

[AEnigma]

There's absolutely no evidence Malone's off court stuff (from age 20) affected on court performance.

I agree, it just makes me disinclined to vote for him.

I mean, I'll leave it to others to get into this, but you seem to be saying 'I admit Malone was top 5, but I won't vote for him because I hate him'. I find it hard to believe that is consistent with the principles of this project.

Agreed, I will not be counting this ballot because it is the clearest example thus far of a spite ballot (even if the off-court behaviour merits spite generally).

[B-Mitch 30]

Agreed, I will not be counting this ballot because it is the clearest example thus far of a spite ballot (even if the off-court behaviour merits spite generally).

Is there anything I can do to change your mind? I guess I could alter my ballot, but that feels a little weird.

[AEnigma]

Agreed, I will not be counting this ballot because it is the clearest example thus far of a spite ballot (even if the off-court behaviour merits spite generally).

Is there anything I can do to change your mind? I guess I could alter my ballot, but that feels a little weird.

It is weirder to say you are excluding a player because fifteen years earlier they slept with a child.

Seeing as you mention that rationale when discussing Rider, I think Malone should be minimum fourth on your RPoY ballot. Make that one specific change and I will count the full ballot submission.

[B-Mitch 30]

It is weirder to say you are excluding a player because fifteen years earlier they slept with a child.

Seeing as you mention that rationale when discussing Rider, I think Malone should be minimum fourth on your RPoY ballot. Make that one specific change and I will count the full ballot submission.

Fair enough, I made the change Enigma. I kept the original part of the ballot but just struck through it to help people rereading the thread understand what happened. I'd like to make clear that this whole thing wasn't some attempt to troll or whatever. I like to make unconventional votes, and outside of 1988-1989, I don't think I've made any particularly out there choices.

[70sFan]

Hakeem's scoring dropped, both per game and per 100, the lowest volume since 92. His Ortg dropped, the lowest he'd had since 1990. His rp100 was the lowest ever. His bp100 was the lowest ever. Stats aren't everything, bit there seems to be ample evidence to support the observation that he had started to drop off.

His scoring and rebounding dropped when he played for the first time ever with volume inside scorer who also happened to be an elite rebounder. Who would have thought?

Since you decided that Duncan was past his prime in 2008 due to postseason run, have you wondered what to do with Hakeem's postseason numbers that year? I'm sure you have a very clear reasoning why they suddenly stopped mattering for him.

[konr0167]

1. Hakeem

Meh regular season but plays the best in the playoffs and plays the best series anyone plays vs Utah.

2. Jordan

Great RS but I’m not hugely moved by by 97 Jordan playoff wise. Outside like the Bullets he has no really great series. underwhelming vs atlanta (blowout win in game 3 despite jordan having just an ineffcient 21 and 5 TOV and also blowout game 5 win despite jordan inefficient 24) horrendous vs miami which they somehow win game 2 and 5 despite jordan being **** and are in a fairly close game in game 4 despite jordan terrorism. And just meh vs Utah. A series they win on defense. (luckily for jordan karl malone and utah are generational chokers).


3. Shaq

Has Lakers at like a 61 win pace when healthy and plays a good first round. Team improves slightly but keep in mind when he joins the Lakers lose Cedric Caballos and Vlade as well as Magic. Caballos was an all-star in 96 though Vlade probably wouldn’t have played too much with Shaq. Like 97 is defo a mediocre Shaq year but I just can’t really say he’s worse than the other guys.


4. Malone

Made the final and wins MVP. I don’t know he sells really hard and Stockton saves him in the WCF and is better in the finals but whatever. Weak year ngl.


5. Penny

I was thinking Pippen. But he does play very well vs Miami. Played significantly better than MJ did vs Miami and Penny has some godly WOWY numbers this year so maybe.

[One_and_Done]

I dislike the idea of saying 'if you put Malone here, I'll count your vote'.

I also just want to note how weird it is to choose I.Rider if you're excluding people for character issues. Rider had a long list of legal and personal issues which, unlike Malone's case, actually did hurt the team on the court. He was also convicted for assaulting multiple women, while Malone was never technically convicted, and was accused of kidnapping an infant, alongside his many drug related charges.

I find it hard to believe Mitch doesn't know that, because all you have to do is google his Wikipedia page. To me it looks like proof positive that he's trying to troll the project; saying 'I care about crimes off the court', and then declaring he will instead take choir boy I.Rider over Malone.

[B-Mitch 30]

I also just want to note how weird it is to choose I.Rider if you're excluding people for character issues. Rider had a long list of legal and personal issues which, unlike Malone's case, actually did hurt the team on the court. He was also convicted for assaulting multiple women, while Malone was never technically convicted, and was accused of kidnapping an infant, alongside his many drug related charges.

I find it hard to believe Mitch doesn't know that, because all you have to do is google his Wikipedia page. To me it looks like proof positive that he's trying to troll the project; saying 'I care about crimes off the court', and then declaring he will instead take choir boy I.Rider over Malone.

I mentioned Rider's character issues, but in retrospect I think I overlooked them compared to Malone's because I thought the latter's was more wrong/egregious. I think this whole mess was caused by my bias and also wanting to spotlight other players (which is part of my unconventional votes approach I mentioned earlier). I stand by my choices for this year, but next time we do this project I'll probably rework this post. I guess if I wanted to defend Rider on a more granular level, he didn't seem to have any off court issues this season (of course this is also true of Malone).

[Cavsfansince84]

Fair enough, I made the change Enigma. I kept the original part of the ballot but just struck through it to help people rereading the thread understand what happened. I'd like to make clear that this whole thing wasn't some attempt to troll or whatever. I like to make unconventional votes, and outside of 1988-1989, I don't think I've made any particularly out there choices.

I think even if you aren't outright trying to troll that if you put any sort of serious thought into a ballot and decided that Karl Malone(who won mvp and probably had at worst the 2nd or 3rd best rs while also leading a team to the finals) shouldn't be on your ballot but JR Rider and Hersey Hawkins(who did have a peak year but is prob more like an all star at best) should be over him it still pretty much is a troll ballot just by being so off the wall. It's like you need to give some really well thought out reasoning I would say in order to justify that kind of order and I don't think you came close to it more so with off the court behavior as a primary form of criteria. I mean, maybe just take this year off as a voter if you're having this hard of a time figuring out what is what but of course its AEnigma's call on how to proceed since he is running it.

[Hook_Em]

1. Hakeem

Meh regular season but plays the best in the playoffs and plays the best series anyone plays vs Utah.

2. Jordan

Great RS but I’m not hugely moved by by 97 Jordan playoff wise. Outside like the Bullets he has no really great series. underwhelming vs atlanta (blowout win in game 3 despite jordan having just an ineffcient 21 and 5 TOV and also blowout game 5 win despite jordan inefficient 24) horrendous vs miami which they somehow win game 2 and 5 despite jordan being **** and are in a fairly close game in game 4 despite jordan terrorism. And just meh vs Utah. A series they win on defense. (luckily for jordan karl malone and utah are generational chokers).


3. Shaq

Has Lakers at like a 61 win pace when healthy and plays a good first round. Team improves slightly but keep in mind when he joins the Lakers lose Cedric Caballos and Vlade as well as Magic. Caballos was an all-star in 96 though Vlade probably wouldn’t have played too much with Shaq. Like 97 is defo a mediocre Shaq year but I just can’t really say he’s worse than the other guys.


4. Malone

Made the final and wins MVP. I don’t know he sells really hard and Stockton saves him in the WCF and is better in the finals but whatever. Weak year ngl.


5. Penny

I was thinking Pippen. But he does play very well vs Miami. Played significantly better than MJ did vs Miami and Penny has some godly WOWY numbers this year so maybe.

MJ beat the team that beat Hakeem. He wasn’t spectacular the entire series but he played great in every important game.

[Lebronnygoat]

POY
1. Hakeem
Less impact than a few in the regular season, but best in the playoffs bar none especially against Utah. Best playmaker ITL vs Utah. Best defender and elite scoring in the playoffs..
2. Jordan
Only good in 1 round but perhaps the best regular-season player anchoring Bulls to +10 SRS and the championship obviously.
3. Penny
Really good vs Miami and leading the Magic to 50-60 wins without shaq impressive. Kind of lucky overperforming SRS and Penny misses alo of games.
4. Shaq
Didn’t have the greatest regular season but was really good in round one and still played good in round two. Defense is still a problem kind of vs Jazz but offense is amazing.
5. Pippen
Bulls got saved by their defense in the playoffs and Pippen still clearly the best there. Bulls lose finals if Pippen plays like Malone.

[OhayoKD]

1. Micheal Jordan

His postseason would have cost him the top spot in my ballot many years but he does enough that when his team plays as well or better than their regular-season says they should, I can't really be taking him below Penny on the basis of data that goes oddly unreplicated a season later as he, a player whose pathways to impact are pretty similar to Jordan's from my understanding, is averaging 20 points and 5 assists, or Hakeem who has little to nothing in terms of discernable impact supporting him.

2. Hakeem Olajuwon

Feels like the best player on tape and in theory...
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=115977766#p115977766

but this year it's tough to make a strong case for him empirically even with a playoff focused approach. As I've said, to some degree I want my votes here to reflect what I think the evidence suggests at the expense of what I feel regarding a player and much like 93 was for Jordan, a Hakeem argument feels a little too complex to make.

Do I feel Hakeem was the clear stand-out in the part of the season that really matters? Yeah. But there is a difference between what I feel and what is likely and when an argument for a player, even in theory, is entiely playoff-based, the Bulls are just doing to well relative to the Rockets, even if on a more garnular analysis I'd attribute that more to how Jordan's teammates translated tham himself.

Maybe there will be comprehensive tracking and well-tested skillset-impact theory suggesting a player I'd argue for with off impressions and small-sampled/minimally reviewed tracking should be trusted over the data, but right now, the argument is too theoretical for me to take him over the lead of a title-winner who I'm pretty sure played better over the larger 82-game sample anyway

3. Penny Hardaway

La Bird mostly relays the empirical case for me

Spoiler:

Making the case for Penny because it seems most people jumped on the Grant Hill hype train instead this season.

- Ridiculous 28 win WOWY signal which further goes up to 30 wins (24 -> 54 win pace) if we exclude the final game of the regular season where Penny only played 5 minutes before resting.
- Against the #1 defense, Penny had a poor first game in a blowout but then went on to average 36/7/4 on 60% TS with 3.5 stocks the rest of the series. This same Miami defense held Jordan to 30/8/3 on 47% TS in the ECF with only one game over 52% TS.
- Orlando was missing Horace Grant in the postseason and the starting C Seikaly was injured halfway through the series too. A frontcourt of Derek Strong and almost 38 year old Danny Schayes is absolutely not playoffs caliber and yet Penny almost carried them to victory over a 6 SRS team. Jordan in Penny's place would have lost too.

Grant Hill had much weaker impact signals than Penny at +1.6 on/off and got outplayed by Mutombo in the first round.

A few things to add.

-> For those who prefer interpreting pythagorean Magic go from +3 with to -9[/b[ without
-> Corroborated by 1996 where Penny wins in-spite of Shaq's absence (50+ win pace in shaq-less games)

Weirdly low in terms of points and assists for a perimiter guard that has never been regarded as a top-tier playmaker and 98 calls into question how real those signals are but...the former concern doesn't apply for his short but seemingly spectacular playoff run, and everyone here has issues in terms of impact data.

4. [b]Karl Malone

Likely a top 2 regular-season player and that and that alone is why he's here. Horrific scoring vs the Rockets. Horrific scoring vs the Bulls. Could not handle Charkles Barkley of all offensive post-assignments well and does dramatically worse facing Chicago. If Malone plays like a top 5 player in the finals I think the Jazz win. They didn't. Malone is probably the biggest reason why.

5. Scottie Pippen

It was a year of impressive co-stars and with the Bulls defense shining in the postseason while Jordan mostly did anything but, I think Pippen earns a top 5 ballot here.

OPOY
1. Micheal Jordan
2. Penny Hardaway
3. Grant Hill

DPOY
1. Deke Mutombo
2. Hakeem Olajuwon
3. Scottie Pippen

[IlikeSHAIguys]

1 - Hakeem
2 - Michael Jordan
3 - Shaq
4 - Penny Hardaway
5 - Scottie Pippen

I know he's a millionare and he doesn't need anything from little ol internet user me but I just feel bad for Hakeem now. Has any player gotten as much I think you were better than this other guy but because of this and this and this thing here I'm just going to vote him above you anyway? I get POY is not hey who do you think was the best but I kind of want to see the results were if people were just told to vote who deserved it with their play not whatever else. Anyway if he's still playing like one of the best defenders and he's shooting like 60 TS and he's creating more and the other guy whose whole thing is scoring isn't even scoring that well like...yeah Idk I just feel people are overthinking again.

looks like he played not that good in 3 of 4 rounds but like who else? Penny this penny that but 20/5 isn't much. Malone got close in terms of his team winning but 40% true shooting for a guy whose thing is scoring? Feel like I understand done with the 90s guys a little better now ll.

Shaq scores alot and he's good and I guess he's protecting the rim and all. If everyone kind of sucks this year stat wise besides like Penny in one round seems like maybe a great defender who helped MJ win 69 games and 4 playoff rounds works.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Pippen
2. Deke Mutombo
3. Hakeem

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Michael Jordan
2. Shaq
3. Penny Hardaway

[DestroyerKing]

I’m confused, do we troll on here? I am looking at your 1991 voting and you have Barkley over Jordan…? Now, Hakeem is 1997 POY because of his fantastic series vs Utah? Geez…

What do you mean by creating as well? In terms of generating open shots for your teammates? That would need to be tracked extensively. Jordan actually used to create a lot for his team as a rookie but he suppressed that amount of on ball playmaking into a sweet spot so he can fit next to other players which turned him into one of the most scalable and portable players ever, being arguably the GOAT ceiling raiser. This is actually what LeBron had to do when he peaked in Miami. Furthermore, we should also track how many times are these guys failing to capitalize on these creations whether it be through missed shots, reads, defense, quality of shot (dependent on player), rotating in time and also the defensive scheme. Teams will double in hopes for a contested shot, turnover or to be funneled into rim protection. Playing off ball within a scheme makes your team infinitely more versatile and harder to scheme against.

[LA Bird]

Player of the Year
1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. Hakeem Olajuwon
4. Penny Hardaway
5. Scottie Pippen

Jordan a comfortable 1 again like last year. Malone clings onto top 2 with further drop offs in the regular season from main competition. Robinson being injured for the year is probably the best move of his career long term but he is out of POY. Shaq will get some votes just because his name is Shaq but career low scoring efficiency in the regular season while missing almost 40% of games where the Lakers were a solid playoffs team without him (18-13) isn't a strong argument already. Then in the playoffs, he does a Robinson impression with only 22 ppg on 52% TS in a 1-4 loss against the Jazz. So that leaves Hakeem as the only one left. The WCF performance was excellent but I am not going to give out POY based on a single series. Solid box and impact metrics in the regular season but nothing near POY level. Rockets performed well with full health but the dropoff without Barkley makes it hard to credit Hakeem alone as the main driver of RS ceiling. I can see Hakeem ahead of Malone based on the H2H series to go as high as #2 but that's it. FWIW, I think Hakeem was much closer to POY in 1987 but there wasn't a single vote for him back then.

Grant Hill came 3rd in MVP voting this season which sounds really impressive until you look at the names right after him (Tim Hardaway 4th, Glen Rice 5th). The voters seemed to love perimeter players this year, other than MJ for MVP. As a player though, I don't really get the argument for Hill. He is theoretically Pippen with better offense and worse defense... but where is the advantage on offense? He has the better first step and "bag" but the result is similar scoring volume and efficiency as Pippen with declines in every playoffs during his prime. The one year where Hill's scoring went up considerably (2000), his passing went down, and he got injured in the postseason. Pippen wasn't a #1 scorer but neither was Hill really and as a #2 or #3, Pippen's defense just seems more valuable to me. Already covered Penny earlier but I also want to give a shout out to Kevin Johnson. Absolute disaster of a playoffs like in 1991 which drops him out of POY but this was low key another high impact season. With Barkley on the Rockets, the Suns lose every game to start the season before KJ returned from injury. He had a slow first month but went 22/10 on 66% TS the rest of the season. WOWY at 39-31 with, 1-11 without for the year as a whole.

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Michael Jordan
2. Penny Hardaway
3. Karl Malone

Could have gone with KJ here as a retirement award but he crashed a bit too hard in the playoffs and I am not sure he had the edge over Malone in the regular season in the first place.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Alonzo Mourning
2. Patrick Ewing
3. Dikembe Mutombo

Miami had the best regular season defense and the best defensive series by any team against any of the 6 championship Bulls teams. Ewing's Knicks had a resurgence finishing 2nd in RS defense (-5.7, best outside of 93/94) and a strong playoffs defense too (-5.7, better than 93/94). The following season, the Knicks fell from -8.1 rDRtg to -2.7 rDRtg mid season without him. Mutombo is back on a top 3 defensive team again after a mysterious two year hiatus but the playoffs defense wasn't as impressive (particularly against Bulls). Garnett statistically had a case too. Near career best -11.5 defensive on/off, 2.1 blocks, and among league leaders in DRAPM depending on source. But I am not too familiar with the early wing defender version of baby KG and none of the impact stats in subsequent years come anywhere near this season. Getting blown out in the first round with 120+ DRtg doesn't help either even if it wasn't necessarily his fault. Honorable mention to Bo Outlaw too who was possibly the best defender per possession but never got enough minutes especially in playoffs (he's not far from Zo in RS minutes actually due to missed games).

[ShaqAttac]

I’m confused, do we troll on here? I am looking at your 1991 voting and you have Barkley over Jordan…? Now, Hakeem is 1997 POY because of his fantastic series vs Utah? Geez…

What do you mean by creating as well? In terms of generating open shots for your teammates? That would need to be tracked extensively. Jordan actually used to create a lot for his team as a rookie but he suppressed that amount of on ball playmaking into a sweet spot so he can fit next to other players which turned him into one of the most scalable and portable players ever, being arguably the GOAT ceiling raiser.

just coz u say something arguably don't mean there's an arg. russ won 11 with less.