SHAMS: Phoenix Trades Unprotected 2031 First to Utah for three lesser firsts.

[Sixers in 4]

If nothing else, this trade sets the scene for a likely exciting blockbuster trade or two before the deadline (which I honestly didn't think would happen)

I would be fuming if I was a Suns fan. In principle I wouldn't be against this trade if the end game/result was an aging Jimmy Butler with an attitude problem.

Irresponsible ownership/management at its worst.

Suns fans can not possibly be angry, in my opinion. They are all in already. They need to make things work.

What is the other option besides letting things unravel? They are unable to rebuild; they only own a small portion of their picks.

Under current CBA laws and apron management, rebuilding from scratch is a very long and painful/drawn out process, Durant and quite possibly Booker will be gone from Phoenix by the end of 2031,
Ainge is wagering on future Suns ownership and management still stinking by 2031 (which is a pretty safe bet as we speak right now)

If they get a chip/ring out of it, obviously the trade would be well worth it, but I think that's unlikely.

I don't disagree but it is a less worse option than doing nothing and having to blow up the roster anyway which is where they would otherwise be headed.

If they owned their picks it would be a different discussion.

[doogie_hauser]

Suns fans can not possibly be angry, in my opinion. They are all in already. They need to make things work.

What is the other option besides letting things unravel? They are unable to rebuild; they only own a small portion of their picks.

Under current CBA laws and apron management, rebuilding from scratch is a very long and painful/drawn out process, Durant and quite possibly Booker will be gone from Phoenix by the end of 2031,
Ainge is wagering on future Suns ownership and management still stinking by 2031 (which is a pretty safe bet as we speak right now)

If they get a chip/ring out of it, obviously the trade would be well worth it, but I think that's unlikely.

I don't disagree but it is a less worse option than doing nothing and having to blow up the roster anyway which is where they would otherwise be headed.

If they owned their picks it would be a different discussion.

They could possibly salage their future by trading Booker to a team loaded with lots of future FRPs, but hard to imagine The Suns doing that (i would if I was in their shoes)

[AussieCeltic]

This is actually a pretty smart trade for both teams. I think Ainge is looking to swing for the fences down the line as Jazz own plenty of picks as is.

And Suns somehow managed to get 3 firsts out of 1.

I like it

[BruttoNostra]

Nice trade for Utah.
People are so obsessed here with "FRP" as if they all worth the same, measuring each player's value with how many FRP he is worth, but then a draft day comes and those late FRPs are treated like garbage.
Say, you have 24th, 25th and 26th pick in any random draft. Think what's the highest pick you can get for the 3 of them. I guess it would be around, what, 15ish? I think majority of you will have it in the range of 12-18, more or less.

So Utah traded out 3 most probably late FRP:
2025 - we already know it will be the 29th or 30th pick.
2027 - Cavs pick should still be in 21-30 range.
2029 - Cavs 4 years from now, Minny are an enigma for me, Utah might be out of tank already - I mean, the worst of 3 will probably be out of the lottery and most probably will land in the same 21-30 range as well.
Summary - a 29th pick and 2 other picks in 21-30 range.


In exchange Utah:
- postponed they draft capital
In both 2027 and 2029 they already had 3 picks, it's really hard to develop so many young players, so they traded out from the worst out of 3 in each year, and consolidated it to a single player much later. By 2031 they should be way after the tank, and it would be nice to add a good player when your own picks are already (hopefully for Jazz fans) in the end of the round. Think how desperate Denver Nuggets are for a talent these days.
- Ainge bought a lottery ticket
If you have a $200K savings, you don't put all of it in penny stocks. If you have $2M, you can allow yourself to take, say, 10% of it and invest it in something super risky. You lose - you're almost in the same place. You win, the payout can drastically upgrade you. Phoenix are a toast, and with no own draft capital and no intention to trade back for its own draft capital, Ainge thinks Suns will not enter their rebuild now - otherwise (say, they trade Book and KD to get their own picks back), by 2031 their rebuild would be already over, but seems like Ainge hopes (and I agree with him), by 2031 Suns might be in the middle of a rebuild.
Take some AI and run predictions for the Suns pick in 2031 (no way NBA teams don't do it) - I wouldn't be surprised if in at least 60%-70% of the cases it's 10th or lower.

[Calvin Klein]

Ishbia keeps doing work

Watch on YouTube

**** clown.

[-Luke-]

Say, you have 24th, 25th and 26th pick in any random draft. Think what's the highest pick you can get for the 3 of them. I guess it would be around, what, 15ish? I think majority of you will have it in the range of 12-18, more or less.

Yeah, 17 or 18 was the first thought that came to mind. Even if you look at one single draft where the order of the picks is already known (and not future picks like in this trade), there's always talk like "Team X with picks 12, 17 und 28 [just making that up of course] should trade up" and it almost never happens that way, or for far less value than thought.

Could still be okay for the Suns. Like another user said, they now have more/other picks to move because the Stepien rule isn't a concern anymore. But from Utah's perspective, pretty much a no brainer in my opinion.

[Devilanche]

If nothing else, this trade sets the scene for a likely exciting blockbuster trade or two before the deadline (which I honestly didn't think would happen)

I would be fuming if I was a Suns fan. In principle I wouldn't be against this trade if the end game/result was an aging Jimmy Butler with an attitude problem.

Irresponsible ownership/management at its worst.

Think about the fanbase that’s getting Beal .

[MasterIchiro]

Stepien Rule

2025 1st via Utah trade
2026 Wiz own swap w/ Suns, can be traded
2027 1st via Utah trade
2028 Wiz own swap w/ Suns, can be traded
2029 1st via Utah trade
2030 Wiz own swap w/ Suns can NOT be traded
2031 Suns 1st owed Utah

Suns have flexibility to trade their 2026 and 2028 1sts now.

Before the trade they could only trade one of their own 1sts, but in trading their 2031 1st to Utah, now they can trade 2 of their own 1sts, because other team's 1sts split up trading 1sts in consecutive drafts.

Suns have the draft capital to both move Beal and satisfy Miami. They have far more flexibility to hammer out a deal without even using the 3 picks they acquired which are worth less than 2 they can now trade.

Good perspective. Now they have 5 picks to choose from to trade. And they could move 3.

True. But in order to trade 3 while complying with Stepien Rule, they would have to trade the 3 picks they just received, which are not as valuable as their own 2026 and 2028 1sts.

There is no way to blend the Suns own 2 with 1 outside pick.

Likewise, no way to blend 1 of the Suns own with 2 outside picks.

The only 3 pick combination that works:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

The best 2 pick combination:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

I believe the 2-pick combo is more valuable in this Butler deal than the 3-pick combo. And the Suns might need the higher-upside 2 pick combo to satisfy Miami and Milwaukee.

I'm guessing 2026 goes to Miami for Butler

2028 goes to Bucks for taking Beal.

The one wrinkle is the Bucks have to move Connaughton separately in order to get below the 2nd apron prior to the Butler-Beal part, but since the Suns have major incentive to help Bucks bundle for Beal (creating space back in Phoenix for Butler), Phoenix may have to figure a way on behalf of the Bucks to help compensate the team that absorbs Connaughton into their cap space or MLE slot.

Bucks aren't trading a (Bucks) 1st to add Beal for a (Suns) 1st. It doesn't cover the cost of Beal. That's on the Suns.

Suns/Bucks may work together to find a team willing to trade high quality 2nds for Portis that route to the team that absorbs Pat Connaughton. The team that helps Bucks get below the tax may be demanding a 1st. If so, the Suns need to use this combo:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

2025 goes to the team that takes Pat. Right now it's pick 29.

2027 goes to Heat, could be a Cavs 1st. Heat lose value here over Suns own 2026 pick.

2029 goes to Bucks. Bucks lose value here over 2028 Suns own pick.

Keep in mind the Heat are the 9 seed, have a .500 record, and will be competing for a playoff spot without Butler.

If the Heat miss the playoffs, their 2025 1st owed the Thunder converts to 2026 where it's unprotected, but also pushes back the Heat 2027 1st owed to Charlotte to 2028 where it is unprotected, even if the Heat make the playoffs in 2027. The Heat 1st 2027 could not convey because it would follow the 2026 Heat owed the Thunder conveying unprotected, thus violate Stepien.

Heat can break up that automatic transfer of a second unprotected 1st forced on them by Stepien Rule by acquiring either the 2027 Suns pick via Utah, or the Suns own 2026 1st (Wizards own swap rights but they're likely worse than Suns next year with Butler, rendering swap rights meaningless).

[Johnny Bball]

Ainge is weird ..he never converts picks into a winning team

The Celtics just won a championship with these two leading the way:

Tatum (who he traded down in the draft for).
Brown (who he drafted)

No, he didn't win. And he didn't build it.

[Johnny Bball]

It's amazing to me how there are still NBA fans who focus on quantity rather than quality. Look at the Knicks trade with the Nets as an example.

I got killed for saying at least three of the first-round picks were not worth much and it wasn't the kind of steal people on the board made it out to be. Well, now you know the value of these late-round picks. Stop saying team X traded 5 first-rounders or 4 first-rounders; look at what is actually being traded.

Mill pick 25 pick. Knicks 25 pick and their 27 pick. All those picks are going to be at best in their twenties and won't have much value.

This trade is most likely made to facilitate the a three team trade, so from a Suns perspective it was more about creating trade flexibility more so than immediate value.

Also, I believe that trading down typically provide better returns than trading up. Outside of the top picks, most drafts pretty much become a crapshoot so triple dipping on picks in the 25-30 range will likely end with a better result than a simple pick in the 10-15 range.

Basically:
- The Suns traded for flexibility to facilitate one or multiple deals.
- The Jazz took a low risk / high reward approach where they have a small chance of landing a top 1-5 pick, with the limited downside risk of trading three low first rounders for one low first rounder.

Makes sense for both teams given their current focus.

Phoenix has always been a place that can sign UFAs. All they need to do to stay out of the top of the lottery in 2031, no matter how bad they are, is keep a clean cap sheet for summer 29/30 and sign talented players. That's how this trade looks to be pretty fair. Trading 3 picks in the 20's for one that's probably 10-20, if managed decently. But a pick should never be top 5. But... the caveat is ... someone has to not eff it up.

[JujitsuFlip]

The other thing is that the Suns 2032 pick is frozen because they're a second apron team, and if they go over the second apron again one more time in the next 3 years, that 2032 pick will become the 30th pick. This means that the 2031 was the last "good" pick they had. So they won't have their 2031 pick, and the 2032 pick is most likely going to be around 30th overall ish. The point is, that they're sacrificing a lot to try to make a title run.

Well, they can't trade their 2032 pick currently any way. Can only go 7 drafts out, no further.

[JujitsuFlip]

It's amazing to me how there are still NBA fans who focus on quantity rather than quality. Look at the Knicks trade with the Nets as an example.

I got killed for saying at least three of the first-round picks were not worth much and it wasn't the kind of steal people on the board made it out to be. Well, now you know the value of these late-round picks. Stop saying team X traded 5 first-rounders or 4 first-rounders; look at what is actually being traded.

Mill pick 25 pick. Knicks 25 pick and their 27 pick. All those picks are going to be at best in their twenties and won't have much value.

You left out a couple picks in there lol

2025 1st-rd pick is NYK own conditional 2025 1st-rd pick is MIL own 2027 1st-rd pick is NYK own 2028 1st-rd pick is a swap 2029 1st-rd pick is NYK own 2031 1st-rd pick is NYK own

[Pointgod]

Stepien Rule

2025 1st via Utah trade
2026 Wiz own swap w/ Suns, can be traded
2027 1st via Utah trade
2028 Wiz own swap w/ Suns, can be traded
2029 1st via Utah trade
2030 Wiz own swap w/ Suns can NOT be traded
2031 Suns 1st owed Utah

Suns have flexibility to trade their 2026 and 2028 1sts now.

Before the trade they could only trade one of their own 1sts, but in trading their 2031 1st to Utah, now they can trade 2 of their own 1sts, because other team's 1sts split up trading 1sts in consecutive drafts.

Suns have the draft capital to both move Beal and satisfy Miami. They have far more flexibility to hammer out a deal without even using the 3 picks they acquired which are worth less than 2 they can now trade.

Good perspective. Now they have 5 picks to choose from to trade. And they could move 3.

True. But in order to trade 3 while complying with Stepien Rule, they would have to trade the 3 picks they just received, which are not as valuable as their own 2026 and 2028 1sts.

There is no way to blend the Suns own 2 with 1 outside pick.

Likewise, no way to blend 1 of the Suns own with 2 outside picks.

The only 3 pick combination that works:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

The best 2 pick combination:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

I believe the 2-pick combo is more valuable in this Butler deal than the 3-pick combo. And the Suns might need the higher-upside 2 pick combo to satisfy Miami and Milwaukee.

I'm guessing 2026 goes to Miami for Butler

2028 goes to Bucks for taking Beal.

The one wrinkle is the Bucks have to move Connaughton separately in order to get below the 2nd apron prior to the Butler-Beal part, but since the Suns have major incentive to help Bucks bundle for Beal (creating space back in Phoenix for Butler), Phoenix may have to figure a way on behalf of the Bucks to help compensate the team that absorbs Connaughton into their cap space or MLE slot.

Bucks aren't trading a (Bucks) 1st to add Beal for a (Suns) 1st. It doesn't cover the cost of Beal. That's on the Suns.

Suns/Bucks may work together to find a team willing to trade high quality 2nds for Portis that route to the team that absorbs Pat Connaughton. The team that helps Bucks get below the tax may be demanding a 1st. If so, the Suns need to use this combo:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

2025 goes to the team that takes Pat. Right now it's pick 29.

2027 goes to Heat, could be a Cavs 1st. Heat lose value here over Suns own 2026 pick.

2029 goes to Bucks. Bucks lose value here over 2028 Suns own pick.

Keep in mind the Heat are the 9 seed, have a .500 record, and will be competing for a playoff spot without Butler.

If the Heat miss the playoffs, their 2025 1st owed the Thunder converts to 2026 where it's unprotected, but also pushes back the Heat 2027 1st owed to Charlotte to 2028 where it is unprotected, even if the Heat make the playoffs in 2027. The Heat 1st 2027 could not convey because it would follow the 2026 Heat owed the Thunder conveying unprotected, thus violate Stepien.

Heat can break up that automatic transfer of a second unprotected 1st forced on them by Stepien Rule by acquiring either the 2027 Suns pick via Utah, or the Suns own 2026 1st (Wizards own swap rights but they're likely worse than Suns next year with Butler, rendering swap rights meaningless).

Really good breakdown. I guess I was thinking about the number of picks going to the Bucks to take on Beal and the Heat as compensation for Butler.

[MasterIchiro]

Good perspective. Now they have 5 picks to choose from to trade. And they could move 3.

True. But in order to trade 3 while complying with Stepien Rule, they would have to trade the 3 picks they just received, which are not as valuable as their own 2026 and 2028 1sts.

There is no way to blend the Suns own 2 with 1 outside pick.

Likewise, no way to blend 1 of the Suns own with 2 outside picks.

The only 3 pick combination that works:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

The best 2 pick combination:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

I believe the 2-pick combo is more valuable in this Butler deal than the 3-pick combo. And the Suns might need the higher-upside 2 pick combo to satisfy Miami and Milwaukee.

I'm guessing 2026 goes to Miami for Butler

2028 goes to Bucks for taking Beal.

The one wrinkle is the Bucks have to move Connaughton separately in order to get below the 2nd apron prior to the Butler-Beal part, but since the Suns have major incentive to help Bucks bundle for Beal (creating space back in Phoenix for Butler), Phoenix may have to figure a way on behalf of the Bucks to help compensate the team that absorbs Connaughton into their cap space or MLE slot.

Bucks aren't trading a (Bucks) 1st to add Beal for a (Suns) 1st. It doesn't cover the cost of Beal. That's on the Suns.

Suns/Bucks may work together to find a team willing to trade high quality 2nds for Portis that route to the team that absorbs Pat Connaughton. The team that helps Bucks get below the tax may be demanding a 1st. If so, the Suns need to use this combo:

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

2025 goes to the team that takes Pat. Right now it's pick 29.

2027 goes to Heat, could be a Cavs 1st. Heat lose value here over Suns own 2026 pick.

2029 goes to Bucks. Bucks lose value here over 2028 Suns own pick.

Keep in mind the Heat are the 9 seed, have a .500 record, and will be competing for a playoff spot without Butler.

If the Heat miss the playoffs, their 2025 1st owed the Thunder converts to 2026 where it's unprotected, but also pushes back the Heat 2027 1st owed to Charlotte to 2028 where it is unprotected, even if the Heat make the playoffs in 2027. The Heat 1st 2027 could not convey because it would follow the 2026 Heat owed the Thunder conveying unprotected, thus violate Stepien.

Heat can break up that automatic transfer of a second unprotected 1st forced on them by Stepien Rule by acquiring either the 2027 Suns pick via Utah, or the Suns own 2026 1st (Wizards own swap rights but they're likely worse than Suns next year with Butler, rendering swap rights meaningless).

Really good breakdown. I guess I was thinking about the number of picks going to the Bucks to take on Beal and the Heat as compensation for Butler.

Yes, the Bucks will require a 1st as compensation for taking on an enormous contract, bad money Riley broadcast he refuses to take in any Butler deal. And Bucks also require help moving off Pat Connaughton in order to set the stage.

So maybe Miami compromises and lets Portis go to the missing link in the 5-team deal, if the Heat know they're getting the 2026 Suns 1st over the 2027 1st via Utah (likely Cavs), as the hedge that enables them to trade their 2027 lottery protected 1st to Charlotte without it automatically pushing back to 2028 where it's unprotected.

The Suns are trending late lottery (13) while the Cavs are trending late 1st (30), so naturally Miami prefers 2026 Suns to 2027 1st via Utah.

Wizards make sense as the team that takes Connaughton for 2 early seconds.

Charlotte stands to lose a little value on their Heat 1st control. Charlotte has picks 34 + 35 to send to Washington. Charlotte recently struck a deal with Phoenix for Richards where originally Suns tried to move Nurkic to Charlotte and wanted/"coveted" Cody Martin with Richards for matching purposes. Heat made a playoff run with Martin's twin, Caleb.

So I see Martin (Heat) + 34 & 35 (Wizards) for Portis as the C2 in place of Richards.

[hauntedcomputer]

This is actually a pretty smart trade for both teams. I think Ainge is looking to swing for the fences down the line as Jazz own plenty of picks as is.

Ainge has made a career as a genius by always pushing everything five to seven years down the line. I think he likes being talked about more than he likes winning.

[pace31]

This is actually a pretty smart trade for both teams. I think Ainge is looking to swing for the fences down the line as Jazz own plenty of picks as is.

Ainge has made a career as a genius by always pushing everything five to seven years down the line. I think he likes being talked about more than he likes winning.

Yep the guy definitely doesn't care about winning. The team he built only won a championship and has the best overall record since 2020.

[pace31]

Also in regards to this trade I think it's great for both sides. It can be debated if it's worth PHX to push any assets to try to win now, but that's clearly going to be there goal and I think this helps them. For the Jazz like others have mentioned we can only field so many rookies / sophomores so dump the worst of the (3) in each draft and the future 2031 1st could a home run or a dud. We also could use it to go hunting if we start to compete.

The secret genius of this deal though is if it does land PHX what they want and they start winning some more games it could bump Minnesota further down the standings. If PHX and/or GS get better and Minny stays the same they could be outside the playin completely giving us 2 lottery picks

[cgf]

This is actually a pretty smart trade for both teams. I think Ainge is looking to swing for the fences down the line as Jazz own plenty of picks as is.

Ainge has made a career as a genius by always pushing everything five to seven years down the line. I think he likes being talked about more than he likes winning.

Yep the guy definitely doesn't care about winning. The team he built only won a championship and has the best overall record since 2020.

The team he built only won after he left and the new guy took the kind of gamble Ainge had avoided like the plague

[165bows]

Ainge is weird ..he never converts picks into a winning team

The Celtics just won a championship with these two leading the way:

Tatum (who he traded down in the draft for).
Brown (who he drafted)

It literally took him leaving the front office so it could happen. Stevens actually understood how to build around them

Lol nice goal post move from “winning team” to suddenly “championship winning.”

[madmaxmedia]

Stepien Rule

2025 1st via Utah trade
2026 Wiz own swap w/ Suns, can be traded
2027 1st via Utah trade
2028 Wiz own swap w/ Suns, can be traded
2029 1st via Utah trade
2030 Wiz own swap w/ Suns can NOT be traded
2031 Suns 1st owed Utah

Suns have flexibility to trade their 2026 and 2028 1sts now.

Before the trade they could only trade one of their own 1sts, but in trading their 2031 1st to Utah, now they can trade 2 of their own 1sts, because other team's 1sts split up trading 1sts in consecutive drafts.

Suns have the draft capital to both move Beal and satisfy Miami. They have far more flexibility to hammer out a deal without even using the 3 picks they acquired which are worth less than 2 they can now trade.

Bingo- Suns came up with a somewhat clever way to somewhat circumvent the Stepien Rule, whether it was worth it or not is a different question.

New Ishbia Rule incoming...

Meh. The Kings did it to unload Holmes in the Dallas deal.

It genuinely is a way to reduce the 'load' imposed by the Stepien Rule, but yeah I was being facetious with my comment. I don't consider it cheating or anything like that.