2025 NBA Draft Thread, part 1 – Capture the Flagg

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Here's my updated big board..

Read on Twitter

Always an interesting read. I actually like Penda but I can't see an argument for having him this high. If the shooting develops, which I don't think it will, he'll be a decent rotation wing. I'm not really seeing the upside. Hope I'm wrong though. I'm wondering what you are seeing since you are much higher than the consensus on him (which feels especially jarring considering all the other international prospects are way lower than the usual mok draft).

[Hal14]

Here's my updated big board..

Read on Twitter

Always an interesting read. I actually like Penda but I can't see an argument for having him this high. If the shooting develops, which I don't think it will, he'll be a decent rotation wing. I'm not really seeing the upside. Hope I'm wrong though. I'm wondering what you are seeing since you are much higher than the consensus on him (which feels especially jarring considering all the other international prospects are way lower than the usual mok draft).

I think Penda is already a pretty good shooter. Between this season + last summer at FIBA (25 games sample) he's at 39.4% from 3 which is excellent for kid as young as he is and as big as he is, and considering the level of competition.

I think he can shoot. I know he can defend very well, is a switchable defender. He's tough, strong. High feel, high basketball IQ, good passer, good rebounder. Can also put the ball on the floor a bit and create his own shot, can post up when he's got a mismatch.

Just a really versatile player on both ends of the floor who knows how to play the game, plays team basketball, very strong..

Maybe not the most upside. But I feel like often times it's the players who people think have lots of upside (but they're really a long term development project 2 years away from 2 years away, raw, low basketball IQ, etc.) who end up falling short of expectations and being busts in the league.

The top 5 or 10 picks are the guys I think have a better chance to be a star. After the top 5 or 10 guys are gone, I'm fine with taking a lower ceiling guy but someone who is also less of a risk to be a bust - a guy like Penda, Newell, Karaban, McNeeley, etc.

Also, Penda's numbers in many categories are similar (or even better) than VJ Edgecombe's numbers..and he's a projected top 6 pick..is 4th on my big board. VJ is more athletic but Penda is taller and plays more poised, more disciplined than Edgecombe does. I think Penda could end up being a better shooter and defender than VJ too.

Also tbh, there's a bit of a dropoff after the top 5 or 10 picks so. Around that 9-11 range it starts to get kind of dicey and I'm not wild about taking any of the prospects quite that high. So while I have Penda at 11, ideally I'd take him closer to like the 14-19 range..

As for me being lower than consensus on all the other international prospects, idk about that. I'm way higher than consensus on Avdalas. I think I'm higher on Raynaud and Bal, about on par with consensus on Saraf, slightly higher on Jakucionis..I think I'm higher than consensus on Markovic, Toohey and Saint-Supery as well..although I don't pay much attention to consensus and try to just make my own evaluations..

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I guess where we are farther apart is that I don't buy that Penda is a 39% shooter from three going forward, especially from the NBA line. That reeks of a hot streak masking his true level and I don't think he has the touch to get there. But yeah the rest, the unselfishness, the strength, the length I'll buy all of that.

For the international guys, I'm not saying it's a bad thing to go against the consensus (remeber when the consensus was Fultz > Tatum). It's often wrong and if everybody agreed on everything it would be boring anyway. You like Avdalas and Penda, I like Traoré and Gonzalez and we'll meet in the middle and draft Maxime Raynaud

[phincsfan]

I trust Calipari's eye test for PG's so I'll add Boogie to my watch list this season.

Sallis
Wolf
Fland
so far

He's really moving all around in the mocks. My gut says the Nets will take him since they have no PG and because he's a NY kid. The Spurs are another team I think would take him.

If he slips into the early 20's, he's my target to package the C's 1st and the Wiz 2nd to make it happen.

[Hal14]

I trust Calipari's eye test for PG's so I'll add Boogie to my watch list this season.

Sallis
Wolf
Fland
so far

He's really moving all around in the mocks. My gut says the Nets will take him since they have no PG and because he's a NY kid. The Spurs are another team I think would take him.

If he slips into the early 20's, he's my target to package the C's 1st and the Wiz 2nd to make it happen.

I don't see Brad trading up to move higher in the 1st round and actually keeping the pick..and if he does, I doubt it's to draft a small PG.

With Boogie suffering a season ending injury (and having a good but not great season) it wouldn't shock me if he returns for another year of college ball. He could rehab, get healthy, get better and try to go higher in the draft and be more NBA-ready in 2026..

[Hal14]

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I guess where we are farther apart is that I don't buy that Penda is a 39% shooter from three going forward, especially from the NBA line. That reeks of a hot streak masking his true level and I don't think he has the touch to get there. But yeah the rest, the unselfishness, the strength, the length I'll buy all of that.

For the international guys, I'm not saying it's a bad thing to go against the consensus (remeber when the consensus was Fultz > Tatum). It's often wrong and if everybody agreed on everything it would be boring anyway. You like Avdalas and Penda, I like Traoré and Gonzalez and we'll meet in the middle and draft Maxime Raynaud

Well, we're slated as of now to have what, 28th pick?

According to this mock that aggregates together a bunch of other mocks for a consensus mock, Penda is projected to go 26th:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/aggregate-2025-nba-mock-draft-3-0-harper-jakucionis-surge-bailey-demin-slide/

I doubt he falls that far, but I would be ecstatic if we got him.

Penda worked out for the Celtics prior to the 2024 draft btw, before deciding to return for another year playing overseas.. so he is on Boston's radar..

[redslastlaugh]

An analyst, Roshan Potluri, ive never heard of has an interesting big board methodology

https://theswishtheory.com/2025-nba-draft-articles/2024/12/2025-nba-draft-board-pre-conference-play-and-some-draft-philosophy-notes/

He projects 22 players as better than rotational starters

1. Cooper Flagg
2. Colin Murray-Boyles
2.3 Dylan Harper
2.4 Derik Queen
2.5 Jeremiah Fears
2.6 Jase Richardson
2.7 Thomas Sorber
2.8 Darrion Williams
2.9 VJ Edgecombe
3.10 Noah Penda
3.11 Khaman Malauch
3.12 Noa Essengue
3.13 Labaron Philon
3.14 Johni Broome
3.15 Kam Jones
3.16 Kasparas Jakucionis
3.17 Anthony Robinson II
3.18 Tre Johnson
3.19 Ryan Kalkbrenner
3.20 Asa Newell
3.21 Ace Bailey
3.22 Miles Byrd

[165bows]

An analyst, Roshan Potluri, ive never heard of has an interesting big board methodology

https://theswishtheory.com/2025-nba-draft-articles/2024/12/2025-nba-draft-board-pre-conference-play-and-some-draft-philosophy-notes/

He projects 22 players as better than rotational starters

1. Cooper Flagg
2. Colin Murray-Boyles
2.3 Dylan Harper
2.4 Derik Queen
2.5 Jeremiah Fears
2.6 Jase Richardson
2.7 Thomas Sorber
2.8 Darrion Williams
2.9 VJ Edgecombe
3.10 Noah Penda
3.11 Khaman Malauch
3.12 Noa Essengue
3.13 Labaron Philon
3.14 Johni Broome
3.15 Kam Jones
3.16 Kasparas Jakucionis
3.17 Anthony Robinson II
3.18 Tre Johnson
3.19 Ryan Kalkbrenner
3.20 Asa Newell
3.21 Ace Bailey
3.22 Miles Byrd

His three point shooting has fallen off but I would 1000% trade up for Sorber. I’ve liked Darrion Williams a lot as well but Sorber is a guy I think could really be developed into the next long term starting C.

Seems like he favors efficiency and passing in his algorithm.

[165bows]

He plays so much bigger than 6’10”, I bet his wingspan/reach came out very well plus a great strong base for a 19 year old. Not an elite athlete but good, combined with feel, coordination and touch. Almost Tatum like where it all adds up together more than the individual parts.

https://youtu.be/dTyvsMTWFxg?feature=shared

Watch through to the end for the blocks he totally swallows dudes.

[Hal14]

Yeah I like Sorber. Really good game by him over the weekend vs Providence. Think at this point he's easily a top 20 pick..so good prospect but not getting my hopes up too much since e he'll probably be off the board by our pick.

I have Sorber ranked slightly higher but think Broome has a better chance of falling to us. Would not hate it at all if we took Broome. Dude can play, he is well rounded..can contribute on both ends of the floor. Older guy who's plug and play. Could contribute for us next season.

We've drafted a bunch of guys in recent years from the SEC too (Grant, Time LOrd, Walsh, JD, etc.)

[redslastlaugh]

I watched the highlights and I like him. Agree about the base and also looked like big, soft hands that catch every pass. Hands reminded me of Jared Sullinger who was considered a top five prospect in the draft before back problems red flagged his stock. Also love Sorbers passing feel.

On the downside, the shot from 3 is a slow windup/release and only making like 20% of attempts. And some of the competition was low grade, but I like him. Another young big in the pipeline is much needed.

Also you’d think he goes top-20 but this draft is quirky. The picks between 15 and our pick is highly Orlando and Brooklyn centric right now and Orlando has so many bigs and Brooklyn also, so it’s a weird draft and the trade deadline may affect who owns what picks and team needs. But I’m just saying if draft order holds any prospects (not necessarily Sorber) that BRK and ORL both pass on could easily go lower than expected.

He plays so much bigger than 6’10”, I bet his wingspan/reach came out very well plus a great strong base for a 19 year old. Not an elite athlete but good, combined with feel, coordination and touch. Almost Tatum like where it all adds up together more than the individual parts.

https://youtu.be/dTyvsMTWFxg?feature=shared

Watch through to the end for the blocks he totally swallows dudes.

[phincsfan]

I watched the highlights and I like him. Agree about the base and also looked like big, soft hands that catch every pass. Hands reminded me of Jared Sullinger who was considered a top five prospect in the draft before back problems red flagged his stock. Also love Sorbers passing feel.

On the downside, the shot from 3 is a slow windup/release and only making like 20% of attempts. And some of the competition was low grade, but I like him. Another young big in the pipeline is much needed.

Also you’d think he goes top-20 but this draft is quirky. The picks between 15 and our pick is highly Orlando and Brooklyn centric right now and Orlando has so many bigs and Brooklyn also, so it’s a weird draft and the trade deadline may affect who owns what picks and team needs. But I’m just saying if draft order holds any prospects (not necessarily Sorber) that BRK and ORL both pass on could easily go lower than expected.

He plays so much bigger than 6’10”, I bet his wingspan/reach came out very well plus a great strong base for a 19 year old. Not an elite athlete but good, combined with feel, coordination and touch. Almost Tatum like where it all adds up together more than the individual parts.

https://youtu.be/dTyvsMTWFxg?feature=shared

Watch through to the end for the blocks he totally swallows dudes.

I was a big Sully fan.

[redslastlaugh]

Sully more so hands only not necessarily overall game. Sully really was a ground bound hippo, lol, though I loved his game too, lol

[phincsfan]

Sully more so hands only not necessarily overall game. Sully really was a ground bound hippo, lol, though I loved his game too, lol

Good bball iq and smart enough to know it was a good idea to turn down the green room invite

[shackles10]

Sully more so hands only not necessarily overall game. Sully really was a ground bound hippo, lol, though I loved his game too, lol

Good bball iq and smart enough to know it was a good idea to turn down the green room invite

[brackdan70]

They moved up a slot with last nights tank.

[165bows]

They moved up a slot with last nights tank.

Interesting Karaban is mocked in the first round at this point but it's tough to tell statistically what he is better at then Sam H. was in college, when Hauser was undrafted.

[Hal14]

They moved up a slot with last nights tank.

Interesting Karaban is mocked in the first round at this point but it's tough to tell statistically what he is better at then Sam H. was in college, when Hauser was undrafted.

Karaban is about a year younger than Hauser was, which makes a bit of a difference. Karaban is also a better passer than Hauser was (idk what the stats say but that's what the eye test tells me).

Also, while Hauser went undrafted..in hindsight he should've gone much higher...if we did a re-draft right now he's probably going in the 13-17 range. So perhaps NBA GM's are learning from their previous mistakes.

Karaban also has had 2 full college seasons so far - he's been a starter on the NCAA championship team twice. Those 2 UConn teams didn't just win the title, they won all 12 March Madness games by double digits.

Karaban should absolutely go in the 1st round. Probably 21-30 range..but I don't think it's that crazy if he goes a few spots higher..

[165bows]

They moved up a slot with last nights tank.

Interesting Karaban is mocked in the first round at this point but it's tough to tell statistically what he is better at then Sam H. was in college, when Hauser was undrafted.

Karaban is about a year younger than Hauser was, which makes a bit of a difference. Karaban is also a better passer than Hauser was (idk what the stats say but that's what the eye test tells me).

Also, while Hauser went undrafted..in hindsight he should've gone much higher...if we did a re-draft right now he's probably going in the 13-17 range. So perhaps NBA GM's are learning from their previous mistakes.

Karaban also has had 2 full college seasons so far - he's been a starter on the NCAA championship team twice. Those 2 UConn teams didn't just win the title, they won all 12 March Madness games by double digits.

Karaban should absolutely go in the 1st round. Probably 21-30 range..but I don't think it's that crazy if he goes a few spots higher..

Right, and in retrospect it's clear that Hauser should have as well. And looking again, Karaban has been more productive at a younger age (Sam's first season wasn't quite as good), but he was also a consistently more productive rebounder.

Just interesting that for extremely similar guys, they are viewed so differently pre-draft.

[threrf23]

Hauser is/was more your prototypical 3&D wing, and an elite shooter or close to it.

Karaban seems to be more a random combo forward. He might be a good shooter, but he is merely a good shooter. He appears to be more effective around the rim and has better hops (at least, he is a much better shot blocker than Hauser). But also, he is/was more physically impressive than Hauser and has less upside to that effect. Doesn't come up with a lot of steals and its possible he fits best as a smallish PF at the NBA level.

Someone like Miles Bridges comes to mind for me, moreso than Hauser. Of course, Miles Bridges with better character and intangibles would be a nice player to have, even if he were a bit less athletic.