Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[patryk7754]

probably almost 100% insignificant, but apparently Rex Ryan has been saying Ben Johnson is the next Bill Walsh. Coming from a defensive expert like Ryan is nice. His son is/was under Johnson with the Lions and I think Ryan has spent time here, so he has decent insight.


Just something positive to put out there

[patryk7754]

https://youtu.be/xo2qWHgqvuM?si=twXocY_vT5HDJ0Wl

Kyle long talking about the plans for the offensive line. Said if the bears go with a vet at center he’d prefer Atlantas

[TheSuzerain]

Sign Trey Smith. Zabel or Mbow (whoever they like better) in round 2 to start at center.

That's my current dream to 'fix' the OL. Could start a short term vet signing at the LG spot in that scenario. Also draft a developmental OL later on in the draft.

[patryk7754]

I think we have an effective cap number of 66m. I think the three likely cut candidates are Everret, Walker, and Bates. They are getting paid too much for their role and productivity and its very easy to replace them with cheaper players. Cutting them saves around 14m, giving us 80m in cap. Excluding Allen, we probably spend a max of 10m on resigning players. Giving us roughly 70m to spend, the majority of which should be on the OL.

Drew Dalman, C: 4/32m: Possibly the best center available. Great run blocker.
Trey Smith, G: 5/100: Arguably the best lineman in the league
Dan Skipper, OT: 2/6: Vet backup who played very well and has experience with Johnson. I can see him being the starting LT
Kevin Zeitler, G: 1/4: One of the best OGs in the NFL and has experience with Johnson.
Ryan Neuzil, C: 2/5m: Backed up Dalman in Atlanta and has really good starting experience from this past season.
Matt Pryor, G/T: 1/2m Versatile and actually decent when not asked to be a full time starter. (cap hit already accounted for)

After these signings, we have two needs left on the OL. LT and eventual replacement of Zeitler. If Johnson and Poles think either Jones of Skipper can hold it down at LT, then we wouldn't need a starter (this year at least) and technically we wouldn't have to worry about Zeitler's replacement until he'd be gone, so we have a lot of flexibility on who to draft and where we we draft them.

After that, we would have about 30m to do whatever with (probably more like 20 since Poles likes to keep 10ish mil in cap left over). Some other things that should potentially be addressed in FA with the leftover money: DE, backup DT, WR3, short yardage RB, TE2, TE3.

Tim Patrick, WR: 2/4: Finished the season strong with the Lions and I think he'd be a good WR3. Great WR4 if we keep Allen.
Zach Ertz, TE: 1/3.5: Probably won't get a lot of money due to age. We'd be lucky if he accepted a TE2. If we end up not getting him, there are plenty vet TE2 options.
Mo Ali Cox, TE: 1/1.5: Great size and blocking ability
John Hakins, DT: 1/1.5: One of the best run stoppers, which was arguably our biggest defensive weakness.
Nick Chubb, RB: 1/2: Assuming he's healthy, he can fill in the Monty role perfectly. If he's not healthy, we still have Johnson as RB2

After these moves, we have about 20m left. That could be spent on resigning Allen. Spotrac has his market value at 11m, which would leave us with 9m in cap and that usually where Poles leaves it. Or, we get a DE like mack. I'd be ok with either, but I think it's more likely to resign Allen to 10m-ish a year.

We go into the draft with a lot of flexibility with what we so with the 1st pick. We can trade back to add more assets, stay put and take best available out of our needs, or trade it for a hypothetically HOFer, who has asked for a trade. At this point, I think our top needs at DE, LT, and back OG - all of which can be addressed with our first three picks. Personally, my favorite offensive lineman are Josh Simmons and Donovan Jackson and I think they can both drop to the 2nd. Simmons because of his injuries and Jackson because he's primarily a OG. With how our OL would look if we signed the players above, I willing to risk those guys dropping to us in the second or just taking best available at OT and OG. If we do plan on taking OT and OG in the second, we only have DE left.

We now have the option to either draft the best available DE from the class or trade for a star DE (Myles Garret or Trey Hendrickson would be the obvious ones). As far as drafting a DE, I think I'd prefer to trade back a take someone like Mike Green or even a DE graded as a top of the 2nd DE. After Carter, I don't think there is a crazy difference in talent in most of these DEs. If somehow Carter (or even Mason Graham) drop far enough for it to be "easy" to trade up for them, I would do that.

If we do trade for a star DE, I would first want to trade down a few spots, to somewhat offset what would have to trade away. Potential trades:

2025 1st, 2026 1st, 2026 4th for Myles Garret and 2026 3rd: Only has a 5m cap hit as most of his 2025 salary turns into a roster bonus in march. But if that's the case, I would imagine the browns would want to get the trade done before they pay it the bonus (assuming that's how it works)

2025 3rd and 2026 2nd for Trey Hendrickson: We keep our 1st but I think the problem with trading for Hendrickson is that I heard his cap hit would increase if traded, so at this point we wouldn't be able to afford him.

2025 5th and 2026th for Cam Jordan. Not a star but reunites with Allen and is a good stopgap. And we keep our 1st.

2025 3rd, 2025 5th, and 2026 2nd for Harold Landry 2025 4th: We mostly need a "sack specialist" and he's one of those. I think he's been available before, so it wouldn't be surprising he's traded. Including a 2nd might be a little steep of a price though.

2025 3rd, 2026 3rd, and 2026 4th for Jaelan Phillips: I don't think he's getting traded but he's has some serious injuries in his career so maybe if someone approaches the Dolphins, they'd be willing to trade him for the right price. He's high risk/high reward. But, because of his injuries, I wouldn't be willing to give up anything higher than a 3rd, and I don't think that would be enough to get him. But, if it is, we can use another pick/sign a cheap vet as insurance.

My top choice would be trading for Garret. At this point, most if not all, of our needs have been addressed. The picks needed to get Garret are somewhat expendable. I think the biggest obstacle would be managing the cap situation for future season. And I think we in good shape there. No one on this roster is due to make crazy money and by the time Williams or Odunze break the bank, most of the contracts should be off the books. But If we take a Garret trade off the table, I still think we are better off trading for a DE (assuming we hadn't gotten someone like Mack in FA). That means we can do whatever we want with the our 1st.

QB: Williams/Bagent
RB: Swift/Chubb/Johnson
WR: Moore/Allen/Odunze/Patrick
TE: Kmet/Ertz/Ali-Cox
LT: Jones/Simmons
LG: Smith/Pryor
C: Dalman/Neuzil
RG: Zeitler/Jackson
RT: Wright/Skipper

DE: Sweat/3rd RD pick/Robinson
DT: Dexter/Cowhart/Pickens
DT: Billings/Hankins
DE: Garret/Booker
OLB: Edwards/Sanbrun/Sewell/Ogbongbemiga
ILB: Edmunds/Sanburn/Ogbongbemiga
CB: Johnson/Stevenson/Gordon/Smith/Johnson
SS: Brisker/Owens
FS: Byard/Hicks

[nomorezorro]

smith and zeitler have both spent their entire careers starting on the right side as far as i'm aware, so i dunno that getting both of them is realistic. (not saying it's impossible — i think some fans have a tendency to overestimate how hard it is to flip sides on the OL, given some of the conversation about teven switching from RG to LG — but i figured it was worth noting anyway)

[nomorezorro]

i also read that the browns aren't likely to trade garrett before the draft because a pre-june 1 trade would wreck their cap

[jnrjr79]

RIP Virginia McCaskey

[patryk7754]

smith and zeitler have both spent their entire careers starting on the right side as far as i'm aware, so i dunno that getting both of them is realistic. (not saying it's impossible — i think some fans have a tendency to overestimate how hard it is to flip sides on the OL, given some of the conversation about teven switching from RG to LG — but i figured it was worth noting anyway)

That’s a good point and something i hadn’t considered. I would still sign both of them and have Zeitler at LG. I think the gap in talent between him and other FA LGs on top of his experience with Johnson and the fact that he’ll be cheap is better than signing an above average RG for 10 plus million or starting a rookie.

Then you just have Jackson be the backup LG. which is his primary spot, I’m pretty sure.

[Jcool0]

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[Dresden]

Too bad she's passed away just when things are going to get better. Was she George Halas' daughter?

[Betta Bulleavit]

Too bad she's passed away just when things are going to get better. Was she George Halas' daughter?

Yep.

[fleet]

I won’t miss Virginia as a Bears owner to say the least. Hopefully things will change. Hopefully they sell the team. Let’s go.

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[fleet]

It’s not even hidden at this point. Caleb and Jeanty’s bromance is an open book

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[dice]

It’s not even hidden at this point. Caleb and Jeanty’s bromance is an open book

last top 10 bears RB that amounted to much was taken 50 years ago. he was pretty good

[dice]

RIP Virginia McCaskey

she was conceived the year the staleys became the bears. good lord

[Hold That]

Sign Trey smith

Draft Jeanty round 1 ..OL&DL in round 2 and DL round 3 I’ll be a happy fan.m

Definitely not fan of more than 1 rookie starting on our line. That rookie doesn’t have to be round 1 it can be in round 2.. considering where we’re positioned in round 2, we’ll likely get a lineman who mysteriously fell out of round 1. Every year there’s 3-4 players who fall out of the back end of round 1. It’s usually linemen.

[Jeffster81]

It’s not even hidden at this point. Caleb and Jeanty’s bromance is an open book

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If the Bears handle their OL business in FA (say Smith and Dalman), I would have no issue with Jeanty at 10.

[nomorezorro]

i'm not an absolute no on jeanty at 10, but it still feels like a premature luxury pick imo

like, even if we get 2 quality starting OL and 1 quality starting EDGE in free agency...

1) we've still got at least one hole on the OL
2) it's likely that 1-2 of those free agents are vets who may only be here for a year or two, and we could still use a long-term cost-controlled asset at that position
3) it's likely that 1-2 of those free agents aren't exactly star-level talents, and we could still use a high-end asset at that position, which is likely to only come through the draft
4) although there may not be a glaring hole for a starter right now, we still have potential long-term needs at positions including DT, LT, S, CB and LB

to me, a first-round RB is still a "finishing touches" draft pick, and no matter how good we feel about this roster coming out of free agency, i need to see them succeed on the field before i'm comfortable going after a high-end RB

[sco]

i'm not an absolute no on jeanty at 10, but it still feels like a premature luxury pick imo

like, even if we get 2 quality starting OL and 1 quality starting EDGE in free agency...

1) we've still got at least one hole on the OL
2) it's likely that 1-2 of those free agents are vets who may only be here for a year or two, and we could still use a long-term cost-controlled asset at that position
3) it's likely that 1-2 of those free agents aren't exactly star-level talents, and we could still use a high-end asset at that position, which is likely to only come through the draft
4) although there may not be a glaring hole for a starter right now, we still have potential long-term needs at positions including DT, LT, S, CB and LB

to me, a first-round RB is still a "finishing touches" draft pick, and no matter how good we feel about this roster coming out of free agency, i need to see them succeed on the field before i'm comfortable going after a high-end RB

I'm with you.

I am completely fine skipping any skill position in the first 4 rounds of this draft. To me, I would either draft O-line in the first two rounds, or trade down for another good pick and still pick O-line with our first 2 picks, after that, it's D-line, then D-back.

[Dresden]

i'm not an absolute no on jeanty at 10, but it still feels like a premature luxury pick imo

like, even if we get 2 quality starting OL and 1 quality starting EDGE in free agency...

1) we've still got at least one hole on the OL
2) it's likely that 1-2 of those free agents are vets who may only be here for a year or two, and we could still use a long-term cost-controlled asset at that position
3) it's likely that 1-2 of those free agents aren't exactly star-level talents, and we could still use a high-end asset at that position, which is likely to only come through the draft
4) although there may not be a glaring hole for a starter right now, we still have potential long-term needs at positions including DT, LT, S, CB and LB

to me, a first-round RB is still a "finishing touches" draft pick, and no matter how good we feel about this roster coming out of free agency, i need to see them succeed on the field before i'm comfortable going after a high-end RB

I'm with you.

I am completely fine skipping any skill position in the first 4 rounds of this draft. To me, I would either draft O-line in the first two rounds, or trade down for another good pick and still pick O-line with our first 2 picks, after that, it's D-line, then D-back.

I'll third the motion. Now if Jeanty were a sure fire Saquon-Bijan level prospect, I'd have to rethink it, but I saw Penn State hold him to a 3.3 average, and that was the only top 20 defense he played against all year. He looked very ordinary in that game- they contained him, and swarmed on him, and was unable to overcome that. I would hate to use a #10 pick on him and have him be overwhelmed by NFL defenses.

I wouldn't have a problem using our late 2nd or a third on a RB though, and there will be some good ones available at that point in the draft.

Ideally, we should trade down from 10 to around 20, and pick up either another 2nd or 3rd. But barring that, I'd still rather use that pick on either an O linemen, a D linemen, or, if we make a good haul in FA at those positions, even take a safety or CB at 10, both of which we could use (unless they're sure Brisker is 100% ok, in which case CB would be the priority. Having another shut down corner opposite Jalen would really solidify our secondary, and that's a better use of the pick than on a RB, IMO. Again, unless they are completely convinced Jeanty is THAT good.)