2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 3: Son of daughter of MVP thread)

[Exp0sed]

40 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, 1 block - in 3 quarters

Denver blowing everyone out lately may hurt Jokic's chances. He takes the fourth quarter off half the time it seems.

Don't worry, Westbrook will come back and it will be a struggle again.

there's another side to that 3 quarters coin tho - it means the team is playing well

for instance we heard the usual haters maligning earlier in the season about Jokic's defense and how it should exclude him from MVP contention or something.in the month of Januray, despite missing starters left and right, the Nuggets had the best Def Rtg in the league. it's not even the middle of Feb but thus far in Feb, the Nuggets have the best Def Rtg in the NBA

obviously these are small samples and they've played a rather soft schedule with many home game to boot, nonetheless they basically have the best Def Rtg in the NBA since X-mas...

[RipHamilton]

I think almost everyone can agree that the Joker is clearly the best player in the world. He’s just in his prime, carrying his team like nobody else.

At the same time, it’s difficult not to give the MVP to someone scoring almost 33 points per game with a percentage of 52% and a team record of 43-9.

[sikma42]

If OKC spotted the other team 10 points in all their games this season, they would still be 35-17.

Sounds like that defensive is carrying them and giving great margin for error.


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[scrabbarista]

Read on Twitter

If Embiid or SGA did this ofc it would have counted....and it happend 2 times this game..

This dude has the worst whistle I’ve ever seen of any superstar. I get he’s not super marketable in the NBA’s eyes but jeez it’s patently ridiculous the double standards that the NBA has with its officiating.

the full-court rip-through move is Jokic's white whale, he's tried to get that call dozens of times and has never gotten it yet haha. that's when he expects a swipe in the back-court and gathers to shoot at the same time


as for the SGA\Embiid vs. Jokic argument, here are some facts:
Kobe popularized the rip-through and back in the Harden days, the rip-through move was abused. refs used to call it a shooting foul (or an and 1 if it went it). that rule has changed a few years ago to make it so the rip-through isn't a shooting foul but it's called to be on the floor

there was alot of emphasis from the league to the refs for a while to enforce it as such but this season there has def been some slippage and i've seen it called a shooting foul occasionaly, for alot of players including SGA and Jokic. so that's one thing the league has got to clean up, you can't call it on the floor some of the time and a shooting foul other times...

during yesterday's Nuggets game broadcast the broadscasters actually talked about the league having to clarify the current rule to the fans because it's very unlcear. what i mean is, there are the classic Harden rip-throughs where he sees a little reach or the defenders arm too close and he goes up to take an unatural basketball shot that he hadn't intended to really take. just a foul bait basically - those are by the current rules called on the floor

however, there are instances that are more grey and less black&white where a player is already in the beginning of an actual gather that leads to a shooting motion when the illegal contact occurs - those get called shooting fouls sometimes and rightfully so

SGA has gotten plenty of these calls this season (Jokic has too) and Embiid is probably the goat of getting that type of call be called a shooting foul, it was a big part of his offense these last couple of years. just spamming face-up, jab stabs and an array of foul baits designed to get that call (and have space for his face-up jumpers)

p.s, yesterday was a real outlier because Jokic hit 3 of those shots and all of them were very natural. the refs even gave him the 3rd one, after calling the first two on the floor. league has to clarify this, the incosistency is weird

one last thing - Jokic gets calls on jumpshots the same as SGA (and others), it's when he's driving and\or finishing that he gets a drastically worse whistle than someone like SGA. Jokic having 6 FTA is laughable, anyone who watches the games sees on average 4,5 and sometimes more, blatant uncalled fouls every game. Deni Avdija has about the same FTA as Jokic

Yeah, it's not a complicated or (generally) difficult play to call: if the player has both hands on the ball and starts a more or less normal jump shooting motion before the contact, that should be free throws.

[slick_watts]

just a random shai tidbit:

shai has played 500 minutes this year without any of jdub, chet or hartenstein on the court and is scoring 41.3 points per 75 possessions on 66% ts and 40%+ usage. the thunder are scoring 131pp100 in those minutes and are +28pp100.

[Special_Puppy]

I think almost everyone can agree that the Joker is clearly the best player in the world. He’s just in his prime, carrying his team like nobody else.

At the same time, it’s difficult not to give the MVP to someone scoring almost 33 points per game with a percentage of 52% and a team record of 43-9.

Why would it be difficult to give the MVP to Jokic over SGA given that they’re both outstanding in traditional and advanced stats?

[lethalizer]

Read on Twitter

If Embiid or SGA did this ofc it would have counted....and it happend 2 times this game..

I'm actually curious, do you watch any Thunder games at all? Shai had 5-6 of these dismissed in the past few games only.

They're obviously calling these kinda plays on the ground as a general rule now. No need to act like this when you don't look at the other players and games altogether.

Of course, I watch the best team in the NBA, and at the same time, a young team. These kinds of calls happen daily for SGA:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Oy9UGr2dMZ4?si=gIy3G92HJqeXzAFp

Oh, so you're just here to troll. Got it.

[Castle Black]

Not hating bc Shai is going to win MVP, but this post and the pic made me laugh lol.

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[kazyv]

Not hating, Shai is going to win MVP, but this post and the pic made me laugh lol.

Read on Twitter

having lived through the harden and embiid years of terror, these kind of posts don't hit the same for SGA. he simply doesn't get quite as many free throws for it to feel like he's similar to those guys. doubly so with the amount of shots he takes and hits.

[MarcusBrody]

I think there are a number of things that lead to the impression of SGA shooting a lot of free throws:
1. He shoots more FT per FGA than any guard but Harden and the second most attempts per game in the league (behind Giannis). So he does shoot a lot, that's a fair take.
2. He shoots a huge percentage of the Thunder's total free throws. Almost 60% I think. So it seems he's going to the line even more than he is as it seems like "it's always him." That's just affecting perception, not his actual amount of free throws (Jokic on the other hand, shoots a couple less FT a game, but a much lower percentage of his teams).

Further mitigating factors is that SGA shoots a lot fewer of his attempts from 3 than any of the other guards at the top of the FT rate stats. So we would expect a higher FTr compared to the guys who shoot more of their FGA from outside. In fact, the only guard in the Top 100 players in FTr who has a lower 3P rate is Christian Braun, who gets a lot of his attempts off cuts (he does have a much lower FTr though .41 for SGA, .27 for Braun). I think this is why - when watching - I sometimes feel like SGA gets a pretty friendly whistle, but I never feel like he's a free throw merchant like some guards in the league, even while SGA in theory shoots more free throws per FGA.

[DrModesty]

If OKC spotted the other team 10 points in all their games this season, they would still be 35-17.

Sounds like that defensive is carrying them and giving great margin for error.


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Actually, it is Shai's offense that carries them. Without Shai on the court their defense gets marginally worse and their offense becomes near worst in the league. Essentially they become Orlando.

[Special_Puppy]

I think there are a number of things that lead to the impression of SGA shooting a lot of free throws:
1. He shoots more FT per FGA than any guard but Harden and the second most attempts per game in the league (behind Giannis). So he does shoot a lot, that's a fair take.
2. He shoots a huge percentage of the Thunder's total free throws. Almost 60% I think. So it seems he's going to the line even more than he is as it seems like "it's always him." That's just affecting perception, not his actual amount of free throws (Jokic on the other hand, shoots a couple less FT a game, but a much lower percentage of his teams).

Further mitigating factors is that SGA shoots a lot fewer of his attempts from 3 than any of the other guards at the top of the FT rate stats. So we would expect a higher FTr compared to the guys who shoot more of their FGA from outside. In fact, the only guard in the Top 100 players in FTr who has a lower 3P rate is Christian Braun, who gets a lot of his attempts off cuts (he does have a much lower FTr though .41 for SGA, .27 for Braun). I think this is why - when watching - I sometimes feel like SGA gets a pretty friendly whistle, but I never feel like he's a free throw merchant like some guards in the league, even while SGA in theory shoots more free throws per FGA.

I mean the impression comes from SGA getting by far the most points from FTs per 100 possessions (Giannis shoots the most FTAs, but he converts a low amount of them so he doesn’t get the FT merchant tag)

[MarcusBrody]

I think there are a number of things that lead to the impression of SGA shooting a lot of free throws:
1. He shoots more FT per FGA than any guard but Harden and the second most attempts per game in the league (behind Giannis). So he does shoot a lot, that's a fair take.
2. He shoots a huge percentage of the Thunder's total free throws. Almost 60% I think. So it seems he's going to the line even more than he is as it seems like "it's always him." That's just affecting perception, not his actual amount of free throws (Jokic on the other hand, shoots a couple less FT a game, but a much lower percentage of his teams).

Further mitigating factors is that SGA shoots a lot fewer of his attempts from 3 than any of the other guards at the top of the FT rate stats. So we would expect a higher FTr compared to the guys who shoot more of their FGA from outside. In fact, the only guard in the Top 100 players in FTr who has a lower 3P rate is Christian Braun, who gets a lot of his attempts off cuts (he does have a much lower FTr though .41 for SGA, .27 for Braun). I think this is why - when watching - I sometimes feel like SGA gets a pretty friendly whistle, but I never feel like he's a free throw merchant like some guards in the league, even while SGA in theory shoots more free throws per FGA.

I mean the impression comes from SGA getting by far the most points from FTs per 100 possessions (Giannis shoots the most FTAs, but he converts a low amount of them so he doesn’t get the FT merchant tag)

That's a good point. Shai is an excellent free throw shooter, so opposing fans are grumpier when he gets attempts.

I do hear plenty of complaints about Giannis's whistle as he initiates contact, but yes, it would be more painful for opponents if he hit a higher percentage.

[RB34]

I think there are a number of things that lead to the impression of SGA shooting a lot of free throws:
1. He shoots more FT per FGA than any guard but Harden and the second most attempts per game in the league (behind Giannis). So he does shoot a lot, that's a fair take.
2. He shoots a huge percentage of the Thunder's total free throws. Almost 60% I think. So it seems he's going to the line even more than he is as it seems like "it's always him." That's just affecting perception, not his actual amount of free throws (Jokic on the other hand, shoots a couple less FT a game, but a much lower percentage of his teams).

Further mitigating factors is that SGA shoots a lot fewer of his attempts from 3 than any of the other guards at the top of the FT rate stats. So we would expect a higher FTr compared to the guys who shoot more of their FGA from outside. In fact, the only guard in the Top 100 players in FTr who has a lower 3P rate is Christian Braun, who gets a lot of his attempts off cuts (he does have a much lower FTr though .41 for SGA, .27 for Braun). I think this is why - when watching - I sometimes feel like SGA gets a pretty friendly whistle, but I never feel like he's a free throw merchant like some guards in the league, even while SGA in theory shoots more free throws per FGA.

I mean the impression comes from SGA getting by far the most points from FTs per 100 possessions (Giannis shoots the most FTAs, but he converts a low amount of them so he doesn’t get the FT merchant tag)

That’s because he doesn’t foul bait like SGA

[MoneyTalks41890]

I think there are a number of things that lead to the impression of SGA shooting a lot of free throws:
1. He shoots more FT per FGA than any guard but Harden and the second most attempts per game in the league (behind Giannis). So he does shoot a lot, that's a fair take.
2. He shoots a huge percentage of the Thunder's total free throws. Almost 60% I think. So it seems he's going to the line even more than he is as it seems like "it's always him." That's just affecting perception, not his actual amount of free throws (Jokic on the other hand, shoots a couple less FT a game, but a much lower percentage of his teams).

Further mitigating factors is that SGA shoots a lot fewer of his attempts from 3 than any of the other guards at the top of the FT rate stats. So we would expect a higher FTr compared to the guys who shoot more of their FGA from outside. In fact, the only guard in the Top 100 players in FTr who has a lower 3P rate is Christian Braun, who gets a lot of his attempts off cuts (he does have a much lower FTr though .41 for SGA, .27 for Braun). I think this is why - when watching - I sometimes feel like SGA gets a pretty friendly whistle, but I never feel like he's a free throw merchant like some guards in the league, even while SGA in theory shoots more free throws per FGA.

I mean the impression comes from SGA getting by far the most points from FTs per 100 possessions (Giannis shoots the most FTAs, but he converts a low amount of them so he doesn’t get the FT merchant tag)

That’s because he doesn’t foul bait like SGA

A more objective and curious observer might note that SGA drives a lot more per game than his peers, and might wonder if that could impact attempted free throws.

If anything, he should be shooting more free throws.

[OkcSinceSGA]

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SGA big favorite right now in Vegas. His last 10 games or whatever is just idiocy. He's basically scoring more than 1 point per minute most of these games, and in some absurd cases 2-3 points per minute in the biggest games. Anyone who still thinks this isn't the best guard season since MJ.. is nuts. It's just quite a bit better than peak Kobe/Wade/Iverson/CP3/TMac and even tops Harden.

In the last 2 weeks he's gone from .292 WS/48 to a mind boggling .323. Jordan only crossed .320 once and .310 twice (91 and 96). I don't think people realize how special this season is historically. He's also inching back toward a 10 EPM after dropping to 8.7 EPM back to 9.4. It's just INSANITY.

[Zadeh]

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SGA big favorite right now in Vegas. His last 10 games or whatever is just idiocy. He's basically scoring more than 1 point per minute most of these games, and in some absurd cases 2-3 points per minute in the biggest games. Anyone who still thinks this isn't the best guard season since MJ.. is nuts. It's just quite a bit better than peak Kobe/Wade/Iverson/CP3/TMac and even tops Harden.

In the last 2 weeks he's gone from .292 WS/48 to a mind boggling .323. Jordan only crossed .320 once and .310 twice (91 and 96). I don't think people realize how special this season is historically. He's also inching back toward a 10 EPM after dropping to 8.7 EPM back to 9.4. It's just INSANITY.

If it for ten games

Jokic
34 Mpg .639 FG .417 3pt .875 FT 10.7 reb 11.4 ast 1.8 stl 0.9 blk 28.9 pts

SGA
33 Mpg .513 FG .373 3Pt .897 FT 3.9 reb 5.3 ast 1.3 stl 0.8 blk 37.3 pts

Jokic faaar better than SGA, by the way if Jokic get ft as SGA get, Jokic ppg turn nearly 35. All we know, Jokic is shooter and never close to paint(is sarcasm).

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

SGA big favorite right now in Vegas. His last 10 games or whatever is just idiocy. He's basically scoring more than 1 point per minute most of these games, and in some absurd cases 2-3 points per minute in the biggest games. Anyone who still thinks this isn't the best guard season since MJ.. is nuts. It's just quite a bit better than peak Kobe/Wade/Iverson/CP3/TMac and even tops Harden.

In the last 2 weeks he's gone from .292 WS/48 to a mind boggling .323. Jordan only crossed .320 once and .310 twice (91 and 96). I don't think people realize how special this season is historically. He's also inching back toward a 10 EPM after dropping to 8.7 EPM back to 9.4. It's just INSANITY.

If it for ten games

Jokic
34 Mpg .639 FG .417 3pt .875 FT 10.7 reb 11.4 ast 1.8 stl 0.9 blk 28.9 pts

SGA
33 Mpg .513 FG .373 3Pt .897 FT 3.9 reb 5.3 ast 1.3 stl 0.8 blk 37.3 pts

Jokic faaar better than SGA, by the way if Jokic get ft as SGA get, Jokic ppg turn nearly 35. All we know, Jokic is shooter and never close to paint(is sarcasm).

Jokic is better at filling a box score. Yet nothing shows either player is "way better". It just shows that they are in a league of their own together this year and that SGA will win MVP due to being an equal player with a way better record. I think we are seeing two of the top 5 all time seasons in the same year and you Jokic homers just literally can't fathom that both are legendary seasons in the same tier of greatness. SGA doesn't rebound or pass like Jokic..... but Jokic also is a horrible defender (among league worst paint defender) where as SGA is a great one.

EPM: SGA- 9.4
Jokic-8.8

WS/48: SGA- .323
Jokic- .335

Net rating: SGA-19
Jokic- 12.4

PIE rating NBA: SGA- 20.6
Jokic- 21.2

[Wolfgang630]

Joker is a way better play that SGA. He’s having a top 5 season in NBA history as a Center in a guard dominated and guard pandered too league. He’s the MVP

[Special_Puppy]

Advanced Stats Comparison
Jokic:
DPM: +6.72
Expected EPM: +9.3
Actual EPM: +8.8
LEBRON: +6.75
BPM: +14.5
X-RAPM: +8.7
3-Year RAPM: +7.3
Time-Decay RAPM (BB-Index): +7.99
Time-Decay RAPM (DARKO): +8.9

SGA:
DPM: +5.97
Expected EPM: +9.3
Actual EPM: +9.4
LEBRON: +6.78
BPM: +12
X-RAPM: +8
3-Year RAPM: +6.7
Time-Decay RAPM (BB-Index): +6.03
Time-Decay RAPM (DARKO): +7.27