The Gradey Dick Thread Part 3

[MEDIC]

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Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

I think it's because he is very inconsistent/ streaky. The frequency of shooting 25% or less in a game is quite high. Good shooting nights seem to be 50/50 with him. Hopefully this improves with experience/ age.

[ArthurVandelay]

.

Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

I think it's because he is very inconsistent/ streaky. The frequency of shooting 25% or less in a game is quite high. Good shooting nights seem to be 50/50 with him. Hopefully this improves with experience/ age.

Experience/age/STRENGTH

[tsherkin]

Dick's shooting.

Wide open: 46%
Open: 33%
Tight: 11%

The drop from Wide Open to Open and then especially Open to Tight are dramatic.

I did a quick comparison to other similar players (Strus, Robinson, Hauser) and they don't drop off that dramatically. He needs to have faith in that high release...

Wete their wide opens right around the same 46%?

In theory you would think as guys gain experience, the extremes lessen. And confidence makes a difference. Once he makes 1 he seems to hit another not long after.

Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

It's worth nothing the volume, right?

2.3 3PA/g wide open (defender 6+ feet away), 45.5%
3.0 3PA/g open (4-6 feet away), 33.1%
0.9 FGA/g tight (2-4 feet away), 11.4%
0.0 FGA/g very tight (0-2 feet away), N/A

So he's hitting something like 4 in 9, but that can come with one hot quarter and then being cold for the rest of a game or two, depending on minutes/touches.

He's struggling when he's not completely open, but those are still "open" looks where he should be shooting better than 3% below league average. Tightly-contested shots have not actually been problem. At < 1 FGA/g with "tight" coverage, there's no sense of where he's shooting in the clock and the sample is ultra volatile (under 48 FGA, as it happens).

Food for thought.

[YogurtProducer]

Dick's shooting.

Wide open: 46%
Open: 33%
Tight: 11%

The drop from Wide Open to Open and then especially Open to Tight are dramatic.

I did a quick comparison to other similar players (Strus, Robinson, Hauser) and they don't drop off that dramatically. He needs to have faith in that high release...

Wete their wide opens right around the same 46%?

In theory you would think as guys gain experience, the extremes lessen. And confidence makes a difference. Once he makes 1 he seems to hit another not long after.

Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

It's worth nothing the volume, right?

2.3 3PA/g wide open (defender 6+ feet away), 45.5%
3.0 3PA/g open (4-6 feet away), 33.1%
0.9 FGA/g tight (2-4 feet away), 11.4%
0.0 FGA/g very tight (0-2 feet away), N/A

So he's hitting something like 4 in 9, but that can come with one hot quarter and then being cold for the rest of a game or two, depending on minutes/touches.

He's struggling when he's not completely open, but those are still "open" looks where he should be shooting better than 3% below league average. Tightly-contested shots have not actually been problem. At < 1 FGA/g with "tight" coverage, there's no sense of where he's shooting in the clock and the sample is ultra volatile (under 48 FGA, as it happens).

Food for thought.

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

[tsherkin]

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

Can't get Statmuse to give me a straight answer, I suspect it doesn't understand how to differentiate "open" vs "contested" to any extent. And the NBA.com/stats page won't provide either.

From a quick glance with the list sorted by volume, at 3+ wide open 3PA/g, you're seeing something near 42, 43% as the average, I'd guess. Steph is shooting 38.5% on those Open (4-6) shots this season, and that seems to be above average. I'd venture that 35-36% is probably league average on those. The NBA.com page doesn't track attempts, only averages, so even if I scraped it, I doubt it'd be a little bleh as far as reliable data.

EDIT: For clarity, I was just eye-balling like 50-60 names at a time at the given volume and roughly estimating those averages. Take them with a grain of salt.

[YogurtProducer]

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

Can't get Statmuse to give me a straight answer, I suspect it doesn't understand how to differentiate "open" vs "contested" to any extent. And the NBA.com/stats page won't provide either.

From a quick glance with the list sorted by volume, at 3+ wide open 3PA/g, you're seeing something near 42, 43% as the average, I'd guess. Steph is shooting 38.5% on those Open (4-6) shots this season, and that seems to be above average. I'd venture that 35-36% is probably league average on those. The NBA.com page doesn't track attempts, only averages, so even if I scraped it, I doubt it'd be a little bleh as far as reliable data.

EDIT: For clarity, I was just eye-balling like 50-60 names at a time at the given volume and roughly estimating those averages. Take them with a grain of salt.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender?CF=FG3A*G*24&CloseDefDistRange=4-6%20Feet%20-%20Open&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=FG3_PCT

I filtered to guys who have taken 25 or more. 250 players. Dick is 202nd in 3pt% on 4-6ft tightly covered shots.

Same thing for wide open/ I bumped it up to 48 shots (that is as close as I could get to get 250 players), and Dick is 32nd there. Battle is 6th

If I had to guess, we will see regression on wide open and progression on open shots.

Seeing Dick Battle made me think so I looked up how many minutes we have seen Dick/Battle/Barnes. And the answer is 12. How have we not tried Barnes with as much shooting as possible?

Now I wanna see IQ/Dick/Battle/Barnes/Poeltl

[Tripod]

In the end, we all know he needs to be more consistent, gain strength, and be better defensively.

Hopefully this All Star break gives him a chance to be a sponge around other highly talented people but also a little break afterwards as a re-set.

Then let's see what another offseason of training does for him. We need a backup C but I hope we keep all the kids and sees who rises to the top. Would hate to trade one for a backup C then have that kid turn out to be great rotational guy.

[tsherkin]

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender?CF=FG3A*G*24&CloseDefDistRange=4-6%20Feet%20-%20Open&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=FG3_PCT

Ah, I'm a dumb dumb and didn't realize you could switch over to totals. Blurb.

Thanks for that!

[MEDIC]

In the end, we all know he needs to be more consistent, gain strength, and be better defensively.

Yeah. I would like to see what he looks like with more functional strength. That's on him to put in the work. I would like to see him come back next season with a new body.

Until his body improves, it's really hard to make a proper forecast on him as a player. He just looks outmatched every nighht from a strength perspective.

He is not "that" skinny. It looks like he hasn't been super serious about his strength training yet.

[canz55]

In the end, we all know he needs to be more consistent, gain strength, and be better defensively.

Yeah. I would like to see what he looks like with more functional strength. That's on him to put in the work. I would like to see him come back next season with a new body.

Until his body improves, it's really hard to make a proper forecast on him as a player. He just looks outmatched every nighht from a strength perspective.

He is not "that" skinny. It looks like he hasn't been super serious about his strength training yet.

He's not even a grown man yet. We're so used to these anamorphic athletes that dominate the leage at a young age and think it's normal when, in reality, muscle mass and dexterity takes time to develop.

That's why Scottie is such a freak of nature because he's so strong at such a young age.

Sent from my SM-S908W using RealGM mobile app

[tsherkin]

That's why Scottie is such a freak of nature because he's so strong at such a young age.

I think it really highlights how rare it is to find a blend of physical tools and skill, honestly. Gradey should eventually be better when he grows into his body some, for sure. NBA-level training regimens and diets will help if he pays attention to staff, but that doesn't necessarily come very quickly.

Scottie's got size, but he's missing mobility tools, shooting touch and other things which we usually see developed much, much earlier on. He's a big boy, but that goes only so far with scoring ability.

[Tripod]

In the end, we all know he needs to be more consistent, gain strength, and be better defensively.

Yeah. I would like to see what he looks like with more functional strength. That's on him to put in the work. I would like to see him come back next season with a new body.

Until his body improves, it's really hard to make a proper forecast on him as a player. He just looks outmatched every nighht from a strength perspective.

He is not "that" skinny. It looks like he hasn't been super serious about his strength training yet.

He's not even a grown man yet. We're so used to these anamorphic athletes that dominate the leage at a young age and think it's normal when, in reality, muscle mass and dexterity takes time to develop.

That's why Scottie is such a freak of nature because he's so strong at such a young age.

Sent from my SM-S908W using RealGM mobile app

Yup.

If you go look, there were lots of comments how this training camp he looked bigger than as a rookie. By his words, he gained 13 lbs between year 1 and 2. We know they exaggerate at but he is still far from having "man strength" as we all know. And only time and effort can fix that. Not something you can "fix" in the next month.

[MEDIC]

Yeah. I would like to see what he looks like with more functional strength. That's on him to put in the work. I would like to see him come back next season with a new body.

Until his body improves, it's really hard to make a proper forecast on him as a player. He just looks outmatched every nighht from a strength perspective.

He is not "that" skinny. It looks like he hasn't been super serious about his strength training yet.

He's not even a grown man yet. We're so used to these anamorphic athletes that dominate the leage at a young age and think it's normal when, in reality, muscle mass and dexterity takes time to develop.

That's why Scottie is such a freak of nature because he's so strong at such a young age.

Sent from my SM-S908W using RealGM mobile app

Yup.

If you go look, there were lots of comments how this training camp he looked bigger than as a rookie. By his words, he gained 13 lbs between year 1 and 2. We know they exaggerate at but he is still far from having "man strength" as we all know. And only time and effort can fix that. Not something you can "fix" in the next month.

It also highlights the importance of strength training for younger athletes who are trying to make it to the pros.

Shead completely changed his body during his tenure at Houston

[Psubs]

.

Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

I think it's because he is very inconsistent/ streaky. The frequency of shooting 25% or less in a game is quite high. Good shooting nights seem to be 50/50 with him. Hopefully this improves with experience/ age.

I think a year or so ago I was curious and looked up JJ Reddick's game logs and game to game there was high variance.

Unless you're elite like Curry, Ray Allen, etc there might be more variance.

[tsherkin]

.

Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

I think it's because he is very inconsistent/ streaky. The frequency of shooting 25% or less in a game is quite high. Good shooting nights seem to be 50/50 with him. Hopefully this improves with experience/ age.

I think a year or so ago I was curious and looked up JJ Reddick's game logs and game to game there was high variance.

Unless you're elite like Curry, Ray Allen, etc there might be more variance.

Curry suffers from variance as much as the next guy, especially in the playoffs. In the RS, his raw average is better than anyone else, of course, but he's come up dry from 3 in bulk many times in the postseason with his approach to the game. He does also have a middle and short game, though, so especially when he was younger, he had more to go to than guys like Dame or Mitchell, etc.

[ForeverTFC]

Wete their wide opens right around the same 46%?

In theory you would think as guys gain experience, the extremes lessen. And confidence makes a difference. Once he makes 1 he seems to hit another not long after.

Odd though how some think he never hits the wide open ones yet it's almost 50%

It's worth nothing the volume, right?

2.3 3PA/g wide open (defender 6+ feet away), 45.5%
3.0 3PA/g open (4-6 feet away), 33.1%
0.9 FGA/g tight (2-4 feet away), 11.4%
0.0 FGA/g very tight (0-2 feet away), N/A

So he's hitting something like 4 in 9, but that can come with one hot quarter and then being cold for the rest of a game or two, depending on minutes/touches.

He's struggling when he's not completely open, but those are still "open" looks where he should be shooting better than 3% below league average. Tightly-contested shots have not actually been problem. At < 1 FGA/g with "tight" coverage, there's no sense of where he's shooting in the clock and the sample is ultra volatile (under 48 FGA, as it happens).

Food for thought.

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

I looked to is up 2 days ago. I’m not sure where Duff is getting his numbers from, but on NBA.com, Gradey’s step down from wide open to open is no different than majority of shooters, including the ones mentioned. The only player that maintained a consistent percentage from wide open to open was Robinson.

[YogurtProducer]

It's worth nothing the volume, right?

2.3 3PA/g wide open (defender 6+ feet away), 45.5%
3.0 3PA/g open (4-6 feet away), 33.1%
0.9 FGA/g tight (2-4 feet away), 11.4%
0.0 FGA/g very tight (0-2 feet away), N/A

So he's hitting something like 4 in 9, but that can come with one hot quarter and then being cold for the rest of a game or two, depending on minutes/touches.

He's struggling when he's not completely open, but those are still "open" looks where he should be shooting better than 3% below league average. Tightly-contested shots have not actually been problem. At < 1 FGA/g with "tight" coverage, there's no sense of where he's shooting in the clock and the sample is ultra volatile (under 48 FGA, as it happens).

Food for thought.

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

I looked to is up 2 days ago. I’m not sure where Duff is getting his numbers from, but on NBA.com, Gradey’s step down from wide open to open is no different than majority of shooters, including the ones mentioned. The only player that maintained a consistent percentage from wide open to open was Robinson.

You can see my post above. He has a much larger drop off. Top 50 in wide open, but bottom 50 in open

[Duffman100]

It's worth nothing the volume, right?

2.3 3PA/g wide open (defender 6+ feet away), 45.5%
3.0 3PA/g open (4-6 feet away), 33.1%
0.9 FGA/g tight (2-4 feet away), 11.4%
0.0 FGA/g very tight (0-2 feet away), N/A

So he's hitting something like 4 in 9, but that can come with one hot quarter and then being cold for the rest of a game or two, depending on minutes/touches.

He's struggling when he's not completely open, but those are still "open" looks where he should be shooting better than 3% below league average. Tightly-contested shots have not actually been problem. At < 1 FGA/g with "tight" coverage, there's no sense of where he's shooting in the clock and the sample is ultra volatile (under 48 FGA, as it happens).

Food for thought.

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

I looked to is up 2 days ago. I’m not sure where Duff is getting his numbers from, but on NBA.com, Gradey’s step down from wide open to open is no different than majority of shooters, including the ones mentioned. The only player that maintained a consistent percentage from wide open to open was Robinson.

The step down from wide open to open is as dramatic. Gradey is a bit more than those players I listed, but it isn't huge.

The step down from open to tight is pretty large and other shooters aren't nearly that big of a drop.

[YogurtProducer]

Do you know the league average for wide open vs open vs tight?

I looked to is up 2 days ago. I’m not sure where Duff is getting his numbers from, but on NBA.com, Gradey’s step down from wide open to open is no different than majority of shooters, including the ones mentioned. The only player that maintained a consistent percentage from wide open to open was Robinson.

The step down from wide open to open is as dramatic. Gradey is a bit more than those players I listed, but it isn't huge.

The step down from open to tight is pretty large and other shooters aren't nearly that big of a drop.

Tight is such a small sample though and pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things

[Duffman100]

I looked to is up 2 days ago. I’m not sure where Duff is getting his numbers from, but on NBA.com, Gradey’s step down from wide open to open is no different than majority of shooters, including the ones mentioned. The only player that maintained a consistent percentage from wide open to open was Robinson.

The step down from wide open to open is as dramatic. Gradey is a bit more than those players I listed, but it isn't huge.

The step down from open to tight is pretty large and other shooters aren't nearly that big of a drop.

Tight is such a small sample though and pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things

Eh it's still 14% of his 3p shots. if he shot similar to the other guys it would take it from 34.5% to 37%. His year looks better.

Obviously he has to improve more on the "open".

I still seen signs of optimism. The wide open shows he has range and the ability.